Dillard v. Crenshaw County Plaintiffs' Post-Trial Brief
Public Court Documents
April 22, 1988

Cite this item
-
Brief Collection, LDF Court Filings. Dillard v. Crenshaw County Plaintiffs' Post-Trial Brief, 1988. cd07f9dc-af9a-ee11-be36-6045bdeb8873. LDF Archives, Thurgood Marshall Institute. https://ldfrecollection.org/archives/archives-search/archives-item/3b9b30e3-e783-47bb-90c6-2e964e2c2a96/dillard-v-crenshaw-county-plaintiffs-post-trial-brief. Accessed May 02, 2025.
Copied!
IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE MIDDLE DISTRICT OF ALABAMA NORTHERN DIVISION-----------------------------------x JOHN DILLARD, et al.. : v. Plaintiffs, C.A. No. 85-T-1332-N (Subclass A Jurisdictions) CRENSHAW COUNTY, ALABAMA, et al.. Defendants. PLAINTIFFS’ POST-TRIAL BRIEF On February 4 and 5, 1988, this Court held an evidentiary hearing concerning the use of alternative remedies, that is, remedies other than the adoption of single-member districts or the abandonment of numbered-post and majority-vote requirements. Although the sole question now before the Court is the appropriateness of imposing one such remedy— limited voting— on two subclass B jurisdictions, the Covington and Lamar County Boards of Education, counsel for a number of subclass A jurisdictions appeared and participated in the hearing. The appendix to this brief consists of the brief filed in No. 87-T- 1192-N, Dillard v. Covington County Board of Education, and No. 87-T-1239-N, Dillard v. Lamar County Board of Education. LARRY T. MENEFEE 5th Floor, Title Building 300 21st Street, North Birmingham, Alabama 35203 Respectfully submitted, /CULU7 L JAMES U. BLACKSHER 465 Dauphin Street Mobile, Alabama 36602 W. EDWARD STILL 714 South 29th Street Birmingham, Alabama 35233 JULIUS L. CHAMBERS LANI GUINIER PAMELA S. KARLAN 99 Hudson Street, 16th Floor New York, New York 10013 Attorneys for Plaintiffs Dated: April 22, 1988 2 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I hereby certify that on this 22d day of April 1988, a copy of the foregoing Post-Trial Brief was served upon the following counsel, by depositing the same in the United States mail, postage prepaid: John Bolton, III Robison and Belser 210 Commerce Street P.O. Drawer 1480 Montgomery, AL 36102 (for City of Valley and Montgomery County Board of Education) David R. Boyd Balch & Bingam P.O. Box 78 Montgomery, AL 36101 (for Shelby County Board of Education, Shelby County Commission, Town of Helena, and Covington County Board of Education, Lamar County Board of Education and as Subclass B Liaison Counsel) Charles A. Dauphin Baxley, Dillard & Dauphin 2100 16th Avenue South Birmingham, AL 35205 (for Geneva County Board of Education and Geneva County Commission) James M. Dyer 112 Suite A South Side Square Huntsville, AL 35801 (for City of Madison) William H. Fillmore P.O. Box 280 Ozark, AL 36361 (for City of Daleville) Carl E. Johnson, Jr. Bishop, Colvin & Johnson 3 601-613 Frank Nelson Building Birmingham, AL 35203 (for Jefferson County Board of Education, as as Subclass A Liaison Counsel) Byrd R. Lathan Patton, Lathan, Leggs & Cole 315 West Market P.O. Box 470 Athens, AL 35611 (for Limestone County School Board) Eugenia McGill Jefferson County Courthouse, #A-400 Birmingham, AL 35263 (for Jefferson County Board of Education) Susan Russ Assistant Attorney General Attorney General's Office 11 South Union Street Montgomery, AL 36130 (for State of Alabama) William E. Shinn, Jr., Esq. 214 S.E. Johnston Street P.O. Box 1563 Decatur, AL 35602 (for Morgan County Commission) Jerry E. Stokes P.O. Box 1636 Andalusia, AL 36420 (for Covington County Commission) Ronald H. Strawbridge P.O. Box 522 Vernon, AL 35592 (for Lamar County Board of Education) William J. Trussell Church, Trussell & Robinson 1904 Cogswell Ave. Pell City, AL 35125 (for St. Clair County Board of Educ ‘ ' St. Clair County Commission) Attorney for Plaintiffs 4 IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE MIDDLE DISTRICT OF ALABAMA NORTHERN DIVISION JOHN DILLARD, et al. . Plaintiffs,v. x C.A. No. 87-T-1192-N COVINGTON COUNTY BOARD OF EDUCATION, Defendant. : ------------------------------------------x -----------------------------------x JOHN DILLARD, et al.. : Plaintiffs, :v. : C.A. No. 87-T-1239-N LAMAR COUNTY BOARD OF EDUCATION, Defendant. x PLAINTIFFS/ POST-TRIAL BRIEF On February 4 and 5, 1988, this Court held an evidentiary hearing concerning the use of alternative remedies, that is, remedies other than the adoption of single-member districts or the abandonment of numbered-post and majority-vote requirements. This memorandum addresses the appropriateness of imposing one such remedy— limited voting— on the Covington and Lamar County Boards of Education.1 Both the Covington County Board and the Lamar County Board have conceded that their current use of at-large elections with numbered posts and a majority-vote requirement for nomination 1 1 A brief incorporating this brief in full has been served on the subclass A jurisdictions represented at the February 4 and 5 hearing. violates section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 because it deprives black citizens of an equal opportunity to elect the candidates of their choice. Thus, the sole questions before this Court are whether the defendants' proposed plans completely remedy the current violation of section 2 and, if they do not, whether the plaintiffs' plans do. Introduction At the February hearing, two political scientists, Dr. Richard L. Engstrom and Dr. John Alford, testified on the relative merits of different electoral structures. Drs. Engstrom and Alford occasionally used different terminology to describe the same concepts. Accordingly, we set out here a definition of several critical terms to aid the Court in analyzing the issues before it. 1. The threshold of exclusion "is the percentage of the vote that will guarantee the winning of a seat even under the most unfavorable circumstances." Lijphart, Trying to Have the Best of Both Worlds: Semi-Proportional and Mixed Systems in Choosing an Electoral System: Issues and Alternatives 207, 209 (A. Lijphart & B. Grofman eds. 1984); see Tr. at 45 (Engstrom)2; Tr. at 206 (Alford); Lijphart, Pintor & Sone, The Limited Vote and the Single Nontransferable Vote: Lessons for the Japanese and 2 The transcript of the February 4 and 5 proceedings is paginated consecutively and will be cited as "Tr. at [Page] ([witness])." The transcript of the evidentiary deposition of Dr. Gordon Henderson, which is paginated separately, will be cited as "Henderson Dep. at [Page]." 2 Spanish Examples in Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences 154, 157 (B. Grofman & A. Lijphart eds. 1986); . The worst case assumptions that define the threshold of exclusion require both that the majority sponsor only as many candidates as there are seats to be filled (for example, in a seven-seat jurisdiction, only seven majority-preferred candidates run) and that the majority spread its votes evenly among its candidates. (This latter assumption reflects no "crossover voting" for the minority-preferred candidate and maximizes the number of votes received by the least-preferred majority candidate.) See Tr. at 45 (Engstrom). If either of these assumptions is relaxed, or if the minority-sponsored candidate is also the choice of any majority voters, then it is entirely possible for the minority candidate to win even if minorities do not constitute more than the threshold of exclusion in turnout.3 See Tr. at 51 (Engstrom); 257 (Alford); Lijphart, Pintor & Sone, supra. at 158. There is a calculable threshold of exclusion for any election scheme. See Tr. at 46 (Engstrom); 258-60 (Alford); Lijphart, Pintor & Sone, supra, at 157. For example, in a single-member district, the threshold of exclusion is 50 percent. Any group that constitutes more than 50 percent of the electorate in that district (that is, a group of 50%+l or more) is guaranteed that its preferred candidate will win. Of course, in The Appendix to this brief provides some numerical examples of the results when the assumptions underlying the worst-case scenario are relaxed. 3 a plurality-win single-member district (as opposed to a single member district with a majority-vote requirement), a group with less than 50%+l of the electorate can elect its preferred candidate in certain cases. For example, a group constituting 40 percent of the electorate might elect its candidate in a three- way contest where the other 60 percent of the electorate spreads its votes between the other two candidates, each of whom receives 30 percent. Although a group that constitutes less than 50%+l of the population in an at-large jurisdiction may, in some cases, elect its preferred candidate,4 the threshold of exclusion remains 50%+l. That is, a group of 50%+l, by voting strategically— sponsoring only as many candidates as there are seats and voting for the entire majority-sponsored slate— can totally shut out the minority. 2. Limited vote systems are electoral arrangements in which each voter casts fewer votes than there are seats to be filled. See Tr. at 39 (Engstrom). In this case, plaintiffs have proposed the use of a limited vote system in which each voter 4 For illustrative purposes consider a seven-member council elected at-large without numbered posts, staggered terms, or a majority-vote requirement— a "pure" at-large system. A minority-preferred candidate might win if: (1) only six majority candidates might run, necessarily leading to the victory of one non-majority candidate, see Thornburg v. Ginales. 478 U.S. ___, 92 L.Ed.2d 25, 53 n. 29 (1986) (noting case in which only two white candidates sought nomination in a three-seat district meaning that "one black candidate had to succeed"); or (2) the majority might sponsor so many candidates and spread its votes so widely that a minority candidate might be one of the top-seven vote getters. 4 would cast only one vote, even though there would be seven seats to be filled. Limited vote systems that accord each voter one vote have also been termed single nontransferable vote (SNTV). systems, see Tr. at 39 (Engstrom), and strictly limited vote systems, see Tr. at 202 (Alford). In the discussion that follows, we shall refer to the system proposed by plaintiffs interchangeably as "limited voting" and "SNTV." In a limited vote system, the threshold of exclusion is dependent on the number of seats to be filled in a given election. It can be expressed as 1 +1" — | 0f1seats • See Tr. at 53 (Engstrom). Thus, in a jurisdiction with seven seats, the threshold of exclusion would be 1 + 12.5%. 3. Proportional representation (PR) systems are electoral arrangements designed to convert votes mathematically into seats. See Tr. at 29 (Engstrom). Most proportional representation systems use party lists: voters vote for parties and the representatives are selected from party lists according to the percentages of the votes received by each party. All proportional representation systems use multi-member districts. As the Court noted, outcomes in which the proportion of representatives elected approximates the group's proportion of the population can be achieved in a variety of electoral arrangements. See Tr. at 273-74. For example, for a seven- member county board in a county where the black community is geographically compact, it would be possible to draw district lines to create a majority-black district if blacks are more than 5 7.14 percent of the population.5 See Tr. at 63 (Engstrom). In many instances, single-member district plans will result in the ratio of black residents to white residents approximating the ratio of majority-black districts to majority-white districts or of black elected officials to white elected officials. That outcome does not, however, render single-member district plans a form of proportional representation. Such plans are more properly characterized as plurality election systems. See Tr. at 31 (Engstrom). But, whatever the political science nomenclature that attaches to particular systems— "plurality," "semi-plurality," "proportional," "semi-proportional," "non- exclusionary," and the like, see Tr. at 32, 35, 37 (Engstrom), 244-46 (Alford); A. Lijphart, Democracies 151-54 (1984)— the question of law before the Court remains whether the system will, "with certitude completely remedy the Section 2 violation." Dillard v. Crenshaw County. 831 F.2d 246, 252 (11th Cir. 1987) (emphasis in original). Moreover, the so-called Dole compromise in section 2(b), which provides that "nothing in this section establishes a right to have members of a protected class elected in numbers equal to their proportion in the population," 42 U.S.C. § 1973(b), does not bar the use of a necessary remedial tool on the basis of social science taxonomy. Rather, as the Supreme Court has made clear, section 2 demands "a searching 5 Dividing the total population of the jurisdiction by 7 to produce equipopulous single-member districts would place 14.28% of the population in each district. To form a majority in a single district, a group would have to be larger than 14.28%/2, or 7.14%. 6 practical evaluation" and "an intensely local appraisal of the design and impact of the contested electoral mechanisms." Thornburg v. Ginoles. 478 U.S. ___, 92 L.Ed.2d 25, 65 (1986) (internal quotation marks omitted; quoting S. Rep. No. 97-417, p. 30 (1982) and Rogers v. Lodge. 458 U.S. 613, 622 (1982)). I. The Senate Factors and Characteristics of Lamar and Covington Counties That Are Relevant to the Nature of the Section 2 Violations in This Case The Covington and Lamar County Boards have conceded that their current use of at-large elections violates section 2. Nonetheless, this Court should consider the precise way in which the Covington and Lamar County Board elections dilute the voting power of black citizens, because the scope of the complete remedy required by section 2 is determined by the nature and extent of the violation. See, e.g.. Louisiana v. United States. 380 U.S. 145, 154 (1965); S. Rep. No. 97-417, p. 31 (1982). The Senate Report accompanying the 1982 amendments to section 2 sets out a list of relevant factors to aid district courts in making the requisite "intensely local appraisal." These factors include: "1. the extent of any history of official discrimination in the state or political subdivision that touched the right of the members of the minority group to register, to vote, or otherwise to participate in the democratic process; 2. the extent to which voting in the elections of the state or political subdivision is racially polarized; 3. the extent to which the state or political subdivision has used unusually large election districts, majority vote requirements, anti-single shot 7 provisions, or other voting practices or procedures that may enhance the opportunity for discrimination against the minority; • • • • • 5. the extent to which members of the minority group in the state or political subdivision bear the effects of discrimination in such areas as education, employment and health, which hinder their ability to participate effectively in the political process; • • • • • 7. the extent to which members of the minority group have been elected to public office in the jurisdiction. • • • • • whether the policy underlying the state or political subdivision's use of such voting qualification, prerequisite to voting, or standard, practice or procedure is tenuous. S. Rep. No. 97-417, pp. 28-29 (1982). This Court's findings in Dillard v. Crenshaw Countv. 640 F. Supp. 1347 (M.D. Ala. 1986) ("Dillard I”), and Dillard v. Baldwin County Board of Education. No. 87-T-1158-N (Apr. 8, 1988), with regard to the first and third Senate factors are equally applicable to the Covington and Lamar County Boards. On the question of historic discrimination, this Court has found that Alabama engaged in an "unrelenting" attempt to minimize the political power of its black citizens. Dillard I. 640 F. Supp. at 1361; see Baldwin County Board, slip op. at 17. Similarly, on the question whether the jurisdiction uses practices that enhance the opportunity for discrimination, this Court held in Baldwin County Board that the use of a majority-vote requirement for primary elections and a numbered-post requirement "have served as a substantial— indeed, the court is convinced insurmountable— political barrier to the ability of the county's black voting minority to elect candidates to the school board." Slip op. at 8 18. The second and fifth factors— racial bloc voting and differences in socioeconomic status— were analyzed by Dr. Gordon G. Henderson, a political scientist with extensive experience in examining voting patterns and the influence of socioeconomic factors on political participation. See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 1. Dr. Henderson examined census data and voting returns for Covington and Lamar Counties. The most significant socioeconomic factors for predicting political participation are education and income. In both counties, the data compiled by the Bureau of the Census reveal a sharp disparity between the status of white and black residents: Covington Lamar Indicator White Black White Black Persons age 25 and over percent with < 5 years of elementary school 9.3 17.9 5.4 17.8 Persons age 25 and over percent high school graduates 45.5 33.6 44.5 29.7 Percent of families 1979 income below $10,000 34.07 48.35 28.75 46.47 Median family income 1979 $14,124 $10,409 $15,504 $10,824 Percentage of families with 1979 income below below oovertv level 13.3 34.7 12.4 31.2 See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 4 (Lamar County) and PI. Exh. 5 (Covington County). In Covington County, roughly twice as many black residents 9 as white residents over the age of 25 lack the rudimentary level of education that gives individuals an awareness of the structure and nature of the political system and the level of confidence to participate in the system. See Henderson Dep. at 25-26. In Lamar County, over three times as many black adults as white adults lack this level of education. Moreover, the older black residents of both counties attended inferior, racially segregated schools, which further impaired their ability to participate equally in the political process. Id. at 20. Similarly, the fact that nearly three times as many black families as white families in Covington and Lamar Counties have incomes below the poverty level also impairs the ability of blacks to participate effectively in the political system by making it more difficult for the black community to provide financial and logistical support to its preferred candidates. The connection between depressed levels of education, income, employment, and living conditions and depressed political participation has long been recognized. See, e.g.. S. Rep. No. 97-417, p. 29 n. 114 (1982). Indeed, in both Lamar and Covington Counties, the percentage of the voting age population that is black exceeds the percentage of registered voters who are black. Dr. Henderson also found that voting in Covington and Lamar Counties is racially polarized in that, when black candidates compete for office, the preferences of black and white voters differ. Dr. Henderson employed the technique for analyzing election returns— bivariate ecological regression— used by the 10 plaintiffs' expert, and approved by the Supreme Court, in Thornburg v. Ginales. 478 U.S. ___, 92 L.Ed.2d 25, 48 (1986). See Henderson Dep. at 8; see also Baldwin Countv Board, slip op. at 12 (relying on Dr. Henderson's regression analysis of elections in Baldwin County to find racially polarized voting). Dr. Henderson analyzed the results in Lamar County for two races in which black candidates competed: the 1984 and 1988 presidential primaries. In each case, Jesse Jackson was the choice of black voters. See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 2. In 1988, the most recent election in Lamar County involving a black *candidate, Jackson is estimated to have received all the black vote, and only 4.66 percent of the white vote. Id.6 Moreover, the presence on the ballot of a black candidate with a reasonable chance to win galvanized the black community, which turned out at a higher rate than the white community. Td. Dr. Henderson also analyzed the results in Covington County for three races in which black candidates competed: the 1982 primary and general elections for the Alabama Supreme Court and the 1988 presidential primary. See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 3. In the 1982 primary election, nearly 85 percent of the black voters supported Oscar Adams III, a black incumbent (who previously had been appointed to his seat), while less than 30 percent of white voters supported Adams. Only in the general b The regression figure estimates that Jackson received 104.89% of the black vote. This estimate exceeds the 100% maximum because of different turnout in the black and white communities. See Henderson Dep. at 13. 11 election, when Adams was the nominee of the Democratic Party, did he receive a majority of the votes cast by white voters. And in the 1988 presidential primary, Jesse Jackson is estimated to have received all the black vote, and only 4.03 percent of the white vote. Id. Moreover, as it did in Lamar County, the presence on the ballot of a black candidate with a reasonable chance to win galvanized the black community, which turned out at a higher rate than the white community. Id. In neither Covington nor Lamar County could Dr. Henderson analyze any countywide races in which black candidates competed. The reason for the absence of such results is simple, and relates to the seventh of the Senate factors identified above: no black candidates have run in modern times for countywide positions in either county. The absence of such candidacies, however, cannot preclude a finding of racial polarization: The number of elections that must be studied in order to determine whether voting is polarized will vary according to pertinent circumstances. One important circumstance is the number of elections in which the minority group has sponsored candidates. Where a minority group has never been able to sponsor a candidate, courts must rely on other factors that tend to prove unequal access to the electoral process. Similarly, where a minority group has begun to sponsor candidates just recently, the fact that statistics from only one or a few elections are available for examination does not foreclose a vote dilution claim. Thornburg v. Ginales. 92 L.Ed.2d at 51 n. 25 (emphasis added). Even prior to Ginales. this Court had recognized that electoral structures may have so clear a discriminatory potential that the system will simply deter the black community from sponsoring serious candidates. Hendrix v. McKinney. 460 F. Supp. 12 626, 631-32 (M.D. Ala. 1978), struck down the use of at-large elections for the Montgomery County Commission. There, the Court noted that: Today, formal prohibitions no longer prevent blacks from seeking county office. There are no screening organizations or petition requirements. Blacks now register and vote. But barriers remain even after the obvious legal roadblocks have been removed. Not only have no blacks been elected to the County Commission, none have run . . . . [V]oting in Montgomery County follows racial lines. This fact undoubtedly discourages black candidates because they face the certain prospect of defeat. Cf. Bolden v. City of Mobile. 423 F. Supp. 384, 388-89 (S.D. Ala. 1976) (relying on non-commission elections and discussing deterrent effect of at-large system), affld, 571 F.2d 238 (5th Cir. 1978), rev'd on other grounds. 446 U.S. 55 (1980). A number of post-Gingles decisions have also recognized that proof of the existence of racial bloc voting need not depend on the defeat of black candidates in elections to the office at issue. Relying on Thornburg v. Ginales/ directive, the Fifth Circuit recently held, in Citizens for a Better Gretna v. City of Gretna, 834 F.2d 496, 502-03 (5th Cir. 1987), that a racial polarization analysis in a case challenging at-large aldermanic elections could rely largely on voting behavior in other contests involving the city's voters "in the face of sparse data" regarding aldermanic elections. Similarly, in Martin v. Allain. 658 F. Supp. 1183 (S.D. Miss. 1987), the district court found racially polarized voting and a violation of section 2 with respect to at-large elections in several judicial districts as to which there was no evidence of black candidacy on the basis of 13 the pervasiveness of racial bloc voting in elections for other judicial and legislative positions in which those districts' voters participated. Particularly in jurisdictions such as Covington and Lamar Counties, where the minority community is relatively small, the requirement that candidates obtain a majority of the votes throughout the jurisdiction drastically alters the calculus faced by prospective black candidates. In such cases, "the lack of black candidates is a likely result of a racially discriminatory system." McMillan v. Escambia Countv. 748 F.2d 1037, 1045 (11th Cir. 1984). As the district court noted in Citizens for a Better Gretna v. City of Gretna. 636 F. Supp. 1113 (E.D. La. 1986), aff'd. 834 F.2d 496 (5th Cir. 1987), it is "axiomatic" that when minorities are faced with dilutive electoral structures "'their voter turnout and candidacy rates tend to drop.'" Id. at 1119 (quoting Minority Vote Dilution 15 (C. Davidson ed. 1984)) (emphasis added); see also id. at 1135; Ginales v. Edmisten. 590 F. Supp. 345, 363 (E.D.N.C. 1984) (three-judge court) (discussing similar effect of majority-vote requirement), aff'd. 478 U.S. ___ (1986). When black voters are faced with an electoral structure that makes it impossible for them to participate equally in the political process, they are not required to wait for redress until they are able to persuade a candidate to undertake a certainly futile campaign. See, e.g.. Major v. Treen. 574 F. Supp. 325 (E.D. La. 1983) (three-judge court) (striking down congressional reapportionment scheme although no black candidate 14 had yet run and lost, because plan clearly diluted collective black voting strength of Orleans Parish). Finally, with regard to the last Senate factor identified above— the tenuousness of the policy underlying use of the challenged electoral mechanism— plaintiffs note that both jurisdictions have advanced two remedial plans, one using single member districts, the other employing "pure" at-large elections (that is, at-large elections with no majority-vote or numbered- post requirements). Thus, neither jurisdiction has asserted that either at-large or district elections are inherently required for the achievement of any governmental purpose. Their positions are important, in the context of plaintiffs' remedial suggestion. First, by proposing district-based elections in one remedial formulation, the Covington and Lamar County Boards have chosen not to advance the claim that that any election scheme in which each elector cannot influence directly the election of each board member impermissibly "disenfranchises" voters. Cf. Tr. at 252 (Alford). Second, by proposing a modified at-large system, which permits single-shot ( or "bullet") voting— and indeed, which depends on single-shot voting to give black citizens any chance to elect their preferred candidate— the two jurisdictions manifest their willingness to have candidates elected by jurisdiction-wide coalitions that are independent of geographic constraints. 15 II. Defendants' Plans Do Not Completely Remedy the Current Violations of Section 2 Although this Court is required to give deference to defendants' proposals for remedying the current violations of section 2, see Tallahassee Branch of NAACP v. Leon Countv. 827 F.2d 1436, 1438-40 (11th Cir. 1987), it "cannot authorize [a remedy] . . . that will not with certitude completely remedy the Section 2 violation," Dillard v. Crenshaw Countv. 831 F.2d 246, 252 (11th Cir. 1987) (emphasis in original). Defendants have presented absolutely no evidence to show that their proposed plans will provide the full remedy required by section 2.7 Moreover, examination of both "pure" at-large systems and the proposed single-member district plans shows that neither jurisdiction has met its responsibility to "come forward with a plan that promises realistically to work, and promises realistically to work now." Green v. School Board of New Kent County. 391 U.S. 430, 439 (1968); see S. Rep. No. 97-417, p. 31, n. 121 (1982) (relying on Green to illustrate the scope of the remedial obligation in § 2 cases). ' Indeed, defendants' own expert witness, Dr. Alford, offered the opinion that the best system for providing a minority with an opportunity to elect the candidate of its choice, assuming geographic dispersion and racial bloc voting, is single transferable voting. Tr. at 263, and placed a number of other alternative remedies, including limited voting, ahead of single member district plans. 16 A. The Proposed "Pure" At-Large Systems Do Not Provide an Adequate Remedy "Pure" at-large elections would fail to provide black citizens of Covington and Lamar Counties with an equal opportunity to participate in the political process and elect the candidates of their choice. First, it would not provide black voters with an equal chance to elect their preferred candidate. Second, it would deprive black citizens of an equal role in the political process: for them to elect their preferred candidate, they would be forced to engage in bullet voting (thereby giving up their ability to influence the election of the remainder of the board), while white voters would not face the same dilemma. As we have already noted, the threshold of exclusion in an at-large system is 50 percent. Blacks constitute 10.7 percent of the registered voters in Covington County, and 9.41 percent of the registered voters in Lamar County. Thus, in both cases, if the threshold of exclusion were figured on the basis of the current electorate— that is, on the basis of the percentage of registered voters— blacks form only a small fraction of the threshold (21.4 percent of the threshold of exclusion in Covington County and 18.82 percent of the threshold of exclusion in Lamar County). Of course, the relevant figure is the share of the actual turnout on election day for the office at issue. See Tr. at 209 (Alford). In the five elections Dr. Henderson studied in Covington County, the lowest turnout by the white community was in the 1988 presidential primary, when an estimated 12.4 17 percent of white registered voters cast ballots. See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 3. (The average white turnout for all five elections studied was far higher— 36.93 percent.) In the four elections studied in Lamar County, the lowest white turnout was also in the 1988 presidential primary, when an estimated 12.1 percent of white registered voters cast ballots. See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 2. Even if white voters turned out at their lowest rate of observed turnout (roughly 12 percent), it would be mathematically impossible for black voters in either county to reach the threshold of exclusion, even if black turnout was 100 percent of black registration. Needless to say, in neither county does the highest observed rate of black turnout even approach 100 percent: in Covington County, it was 29.93 percent, while in Lamar County it was 20.25 percent. Blacks in Covington County would have to turn out at a rate over 8 times greater than white turnout for black votes to equal 50 percent of the votes cast. In four of the five elections analyzed, blacks turned out at a lower rate. See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 2. Even in an election in which the black candidate was a front runner, and in which the black community was therefore most motivated to turn out, the black turnout rate was only slightly more than double the white turnout rate, and for all elections analyzed the average black turnout was only 59 percent of white turnout. Similarly, in Lamar County, blacks would have to turn out at 18 more than 9 times the rate of whites for black votes to equal fifty percent of the votes cast. Blacks in Lamar County have never turned out at a rate greater than 1.67 times the white turnout rate, and their average turnout rate is only 62 percent of the average white turnout. See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 2. Thus, blacks stand no conceivable chance of exceeding, or even approaching, the threshold of exclusion in an at-large system in either Covington or Lamar Counties. Nor would single-shot voting provide plaintiffs with an equal opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice. It is no accident that the City of Rome footnote which discusses how single-shot voting can permit minorities to elect their preferred candidates, see City of Rome v. United States. 446 U.S. 156, 184 n. 19 (1980), postulates a community whose electorate is 40 percent black, and in which twice as many white candidates run as there are seats available, for it takes both a large black percentage of the electorate and a significantly higher number of white candidates than seats available for single-shot voting to work. In Covington and Lamar Counties, if precisely the same assumptions about white behavior are made, single-shot voting would not result in the election of a candidate supported by the black community. In Covington County, if twice as many white candidates were to run as there were seats to be filled, and if the white community were to spread its votes evenly among these candidates— the assumptions made in City of Rome. 446 U.S. at 184 19 n. 119— each white candidate would receive more than four times the number of votes received by the black candidate. Only if the white community were to split its votes evenly among fiftv-nine candidates would each white candidate each receive fewer votes than the black candidate.8 In short, in a community with a small proportion of black voters such as Covington County, single-shot voting cannot offer black citizens a realistic opportunity to elect their preferred candidate.9 Moreover, even if blacks were able to elect their preferred candidates through single-shot voting, forcing them to rely on single-shot voting while white voters can vote for a full slate This tremendous disparity in voting power in a single shot regime was discussed by Dr. Engstrom, using the example of a 200-voter jurisdiction with a seven-member board, in which there are 26 black voters (that is, a jurisdiction where black voters satisfy the threshold of exclusion by constituting 12.5%+1 of the electorate). In such a jurisdiction, the black voters who engage in single-shot voting— the strategy that maximizes their chance of electing their preferred candidate, Tr. at 74— would have 26 votes to cast, while the white voters— who could "afford" to vote for a full slate— would have 1,218, Tr. at 76. An analogous calculation can be performed for Covington County. For the sake of simplicity, assume the County has 1000 registered voters, 107 of whom are black and 893 of whom are white. (These numbers reflect the actual proportions of registered voters, although the actual number of voters is obviously much higher.) In a "pure" at-large system, the black community has available 749 votes (107 voters with 7 votes each) while the white community has available 6251 (893 voters with 7 votes each). If the black community engages in single-shot voting, it will have 107 votes to cast while the white community still has 6251. Thus, the disparity of voting power in even more extreme in Covington County than it was in Dr. Engstrom's hypothetical. 9 The same analysis holds true, a fortiori, for Lamar County. The black proportion of its electorate is lower than that for Covington County, and its black and white turnout percentages are roughly comparable. See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 2 . 20 deprives black citizens of the full voting rights enjoyed by white citizens. See Ginales v. Edmisten. 590 F. Supp. 345, 369 (E.D.N.C. 1984), (three-judge court), aff/d . 478 U.S. ___, 92 L.Ed.2d 25 (1986). Only by sacrificing a significant share of their franchise can black voters even hope to elect their preferred candidate. Each white voter can cast ballots for a full slate of commissioners, secure in the knowledge that at worst one of his preferred candidates may be defeated by the candidate supported by the black community. A system that depends on single-shot voting to provide black voters with a chance to elect the candidate of their choice is, at bottom, the functional equivalent of a system where each black voter may cast one vote while each white voter is entitled to seven.10 A black voter must sacrifice any possibility of influencing the election of his second-choice candidate to ensure the election of his first-choice candidate, while a white voter faces no such -LU Affording each black voter one vote— the vote which he or she casts by bullet voting— while affording each white voter seven votes— with which he or she votes for a full slate of board members— is not the functional equivalent of using a "mixed system," that is, a system where some representatives are elected from multimember districts while others are elected from single member districts. Because white voters can vote for all seven seats (rather than only six as they might in a mixed system, or in a "simply" limited voting system, see Tr. at 202 (Alford)), forcing blacks to bullet vote in a pure at-large system is more like giving them a hypothetical single-member district and then allowing whites in a hypothetical six-member district to vote for candidates in both districts. Cf. Banzhaf, Multi-Member Electoral Districts— Do They Violate the "One Man. One Vote" Principle. 75 Yale L.J. 1309 (1966) (showing that voters in larger, multimember districts will have more influence over elected body's decisionmaking even though both the single-member and the multimember districts have the same ratios of voters to representatives). 21 difficulty. Thus, although single-shot voting may result in roughly proportional representation on a multimember body, it does not result in equal political influence for each voter. Finally, the retention of at-large elections would perpetuate the dilution of plaintiffs' collective political strength condemned in Dillard I. In Dillard v. Crenshaw County. 649 F. Supp. 289, 295 (M.D. Ala. 1986) f"Dillard 11”1. aff'd in part and remanded in part on other grounds. 831 F.2d 246 (11th Cir. 1987), reaff'd on remand. ___ F. Supp. ___ (M.D. Ala. 1988), this Court held that jurisdictions cannot retain systems that depend even in part on at-large elections in the face of its findings regarding the Legislature's purpose in implementing and maintaining at-large elections. Id. at 294-97. A fortiori, a defendant cannot satisfy its remedial obligations by retaining in full such a system. B. Defendants' Single-Member District Plans Do Not Provide Plaintiffs With an Equal Opportunity To Elect the Candidates of Their Choice Defendants have also proposed single-member district plans. The Covington County Board has proposed a seven-member board. One member would be elected from a district that is 51.13 percent black in total population. The Lamar County Board has also proposed a seven-member board. One member would be elected from a district that is 31.3 percent black in total population. Defendants have presented no evidence to show that their single-member district plans will provide black citizens with an 22 equal opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice. Neither district in fact contains a level of minority population likely to result in a competitive district, that is, a district in which black citizens have an equal opportunity to elect the candidates of their choice. In Covington County, although 74.79 percent of the white population is of voting age, only 59.98 percent of the black population is of voting age. See Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 5. Thus, applying the countywide figure to the Board's proposed district, a district that is 51.13 percent black in total population is likely to be only 45.63 percent black in voting age population. Since both black registration and turnout among black registered voters tends to lag behind white registration and turnout in Covington County, the proposed district does not provide black voters with a reasonable opportunity to elect the candidates of their choice. There is no evidence in the record to support finding that a 51.13 percent black district in Covington County is an acceptable remedy. Cf. Baldwin Countv Board, slip op. at 24 (finding that hypothetical district with 50.64 percent black total population would not provide blacks with equal electoral opportunity). The district proposed by the Lamar County Board is even more inadequate. The district is only 31.3 percent black in total population. Thus, given the disparity between white percentage of population age 18 and over and black percentage of population age 18 and over, see Henderson Dep. PI. Exh. 4, the district is 23 likely to be only a little over 28 percent black in voting age population, and the percentage of registered voters and actual turnout will be even lower. Single-member districts fail to provide adequate remedies for black citizens of Covington and Lamar Counties not because there are too few blacks in either jurisdiction, but because the black community is geographically dispersed. If the counties7 black populations were concentrated in a single geographic area, it would be possible to create single-member districts with a sufficiently high percentage of blacks to provide equal electoral opportunity. In Covington County, blacks constitute 13.4 percent of the total population; in Lamar County, they are 12.2 percent of the population. The threshold of exclusion for a single member district in a seven-seat jurisdiction is approximately 7.14%+1. See Tr. at 63 (Engstrom). Thus, if all Covington County's black residents could be included in one single-member district, they would form 93.8 percent of its population. See Tr. at 67 (Engstrom). Similarly, if all of Lamar County's black residents could be included in one single-member district, they would form 85.4 percent of its population. See Tr. at 72 (Engstrom). Such districts would obviously give blacks an excellent chance to elect their preferred candidates. But nearly half of Covington County's black citizens live outside the proposed 51.13 percent black district, and nearly two-thirds of 24 Lamar's black residents live outside the 31.3% black district.11 Indeed, this Court has entered numerous final orders in the consolidated Dillard cases creating single-member district plans for jurisdictions with black population percentages comparable to those of Covington and Lamar County. See Dillard v. City of Piedmont. No. 87-T-1276-N (Feb. 22, 1988) (9.5 percent black/7 districts); Dillard v. City of Russellville. No. 87-T-1288-N (Mar.22, 1988) (12.1 percent black population/5 districts); Baldwin County Board, supra. (13.86 percent black/7 districts); Dillard v. Crenshaw County fCitv of Decatur^. No. 85-T-1332-N i(Nov. 13, 1987) (15.7 percent black/5 districts); Dillard v. City of Jemison. No. 87-T-1237-N (Dec. 18, 1987) (16.9 percent black/5 districts); Dillard v. City of Riverside. No. 87-T-1286-N (Jan. * xx The following calculations are illustrative of this dispersion: (They are not exact because they do not take into account the minimal population deviations among the proposed districts). The Covington Board has proposed a 51.13% black district. Multiplying that percentage by .1428 (the percentage of the county's total population in each district) gives a figure of .0730. This means that 7.3% of Covington County residents are blacks who live in the proposed district. But 13.4% of the total population of Covington County is black. Subtracting 7.3% from 13.4% leaves 6.1%, which reflects the fact that 6.1% of Covington County residents are black persons who live outside the proposed district. Dividing 6.1 (blacks living outside the proposed district) by 13.4 (blacks living in Covington County) gives .4552. In other words, 45.52% of blacks who live in Covington County live outside the proposed district. Performing the same calculations for Lamar County: multiply .313 (percentage of blacks in proposed district) by .1428 (percentage of residents in each district). Take the product— .0447 (percentage who are black and live in proposed district)— and subtract it from 12.2 (percentage of blacks in county). The difference is 7.73 (percentage of persons in Lamar County who are black and live outside the proposed district). Dividing 7.73 by 12.2 equals .6336. In other words, 63.36% of blacks live outside the proposed district. 25 28, 1988) (17.2 percent black/5 districts).12 Given the nature of the violation found by this Court in Dillard I. the absence of sufficient geographic compactness to create a single-member district remedy cannot relieve jurisdictions of the obligation to come forward with plans that promise their black citizens a reasonable opportunity to elect the candidates of their choice. As the Court noted in Baldwin County Board. "compactness” is "a 'practical' or 'functional' concept" meant to give effect to "§ 2's laudatory national mission of opening up the political process to those minorities that have been historically denied such." Slip op. at 15. This Court has already noted that Ginales' dependence on compactness to establish section 2 liability is inapposite to the Dillard cases. See, e.q.. Dillard v. Crenshaw County (Cities of Muscle Shoals. Tallassee, Madison, and Sheffield. Geneva Countv Commission. St. Clair County Commission, and St. Clair Countv Board of Education). No. 85-T-1332-N (Sept. 14, 1987), slip op. at 6-7. The core of plaintiffs' claims against the Covington and Lamar County Boards is not that at-large elections, in comparison to elections from single-member districts, have resulted in Because the Decatur, Jemison, and Riverside plans each use only five districts, the relationship between the size of the black population and the size of an ideal district in those three jurisdictions is comparable to the relationship between the size of the black populations and the sizes of ideal districts in Covington and Lamar Counties. For example, blacks in Riverside (with its 17.2% black population) constitute 86% of an ideal district (each district would contain 20% of total population and dividing 17.2 by 20 equals .86). Blacks in Lamar Counry constitute roughly 85% of an ideal district. 26 blacks' being less able than white to elect the candidates of their choice, but that the State of Alabama intentionally manipulated the local election schemes used by the Boards to deprive black citizens of any say in who was elected. The Legislature was not content merely to ensure that even large, geographically compact, concentrations of black citizens would be unable to elect their preferred candidates. Rather, it sought to ensure that no black citizen had any effective political power. The prohibitions on single-shot voting and the use of numbered places discussed in Dillard I were designed, and operated, to diminish black political power even in jurisdictions such as Covington and Lamar Counties, where black communities were not sufficiently contiguous to form single-member districts. Because the difference between the results of at-large elections and the expected results under district-based elections are not a full measure of the injury suffered by the Covington and Lamar County plaintiffs, single-member districts will not provide a full remedy. As we explained in our pretrial memorandum, only a remedy that realistically promises to allow black citizens to elect the candidates of their choice can remove the taint that infects each of the local electoral schemes challenged in this case. Because single-member districts do not fulfill that promise, this Court should reject defendants' proposed remedies. 27 III. Plaintiffs' Limited Vote Proposal Provides Black Citizens in Covington and Lamar Counties With an Equal Opportunity To Elect the Candidates of Their Choice Plaintiffs' proposed remedy provides the black citizens of Covington and Lamar Counties with an excellent opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice to their respective school boards. Limited voting avoids the critical flaw in the use of single-member districts in the two counties: the failure of such districts, due to geographic dispersion, to include in a single district a sufficient number of blacks to provide the black community with a realistic opportunity to elect the candidate of its choice. As Dr. Engstrom testified, limited voting enables voters who form a community of interest to elect their preferred candidate regardless of geographic constraints. See Tr. at 66 (Engstrom). Under limited voting, all the black voters in Covington or Lamar County can act as if they lived in one single-member district. As we have already noted, in both counties, blacks would form well over 80 percent of this "floating" district, see Tr. at 67, 72 (Engstrom), in contrast to the far lower proportions they constitute of the defendants' proposed districts. At the evidentiary hearing, defendants' witness, Dr. Alford, identified three potential problems with the use of limited voting: first, black voters in Covington and Lamar are unlikely to exceed the threshold of exclusion and therefore were not guaranteed to elect a candidate; second, limited voting will 28 impair coalition building; and third, limited voting will lead to a factionalized electorate. In the context of this case, none of these objections is apposite. First, while it is true that the percentages of black registered voters in Covington and Lamar Counties are below the 12.5 percent threshold of exclusion, black voters will nonetheless have an excellent opportunity to elect their preferred candidates. The threshold of exclusion is a worst-case scenario that depends on the presence of several forms of strategic behavior by the white electorate. The worst-case scenario is extremely unlikely. See Tr. at 51 (Engstrom). Defendants have provided no evidence to suggest that the white community in either county will support only seven candidates, let alone that the white community is sufficiently disciplined to allot its votes absolutely evenly over seven candidates. The testimony of defendants' own witness, Dr. Alford, suggested that in Japan, the majority LDP party has found it extremely difficult to discipline its voters. Tr. at 237; see also Lijphart, Pintor & Sone, supra. at 158-59 (while "the optimal limited vote system from the point of minority representation is SNTV," majority groups may find it difficult to win the expected number of seats because of uneven support, overnomination, and undernomination). Moreover, as the examples in the Appendix demonstrate, the assumptions underlying the worst case scenario need be relaxed only a slight amount for the black community to achieve the election of its preferred candidate. From the point of view of a 29 remedy for intentional discrimination against a minority group, however, the potential difficulties the majority faces in engaging in the optimal strategy for maximizing its share of seats is not a weakness, but a benefit of limited voting. Finally, Dr. Alford's assumption that black turnout will be far below white turnout in Covington and Lamar Counties, and that blacks must therefore constitute 16.25 percent of the population for plaintiffs' plan to provide them with an equal opportunity to elect their preferred candidates, is not borne out by the evidence. In fact, in both counties, black turnout exceeded the ithreshold of exclusion in the 1988 presidential primary, an election in which the presence on the ballot of a black candidate with an excellent chance to win encouraged blacks to turn out.13 Thus, it is simply not the case that the black population 13 In Covington County, black turnout represented approximately 20.19% of the total votes cast in the Democratic primary. The percentage of votes cast by black voters is the ratio of black votes cast to total votes cast. Black votes cast are the product of the percentage of voters who are black times the percentage of black voters who turn out. The total is the sum of black votes cast plus white votes cast: .107 X .2621 = .0280 + .893 X .1240 = .1107 . 1387 .0280/.1387 = .2019. Similarly, in Lamar County, .0941 X .2025 = .0191 + .9059 X .1210 = .1096 .1287 .0191/.1287 = .1484. In other words, blacks cast 14.84% of the ballots in Lamar County. 30 percentage would have to be adjusted upward by nearly the adjustment factor posited by Dr. Alford. Second, Dr. Alford's argument that limited voting impairs coalition building ignores several critical realities of politics in Alabama. For one thing, the presence of racial bloc voting means, by definition, that whites will not form coalitions with blacks to support black candidates. Thus, blacks cannot enter into coalitions as equal partners. For another, as this Court recognized in its opinion in Dillard II. insuring the representation of the interests of the black community in the day-to-day decisionmaking by elected bodies is every bit as crucial a goal of the Voting Rights Act as opening up the electoral process itself. See 649 F. Supp. at 295-97; see also Tr. at 81 (Engstrom) (building coalitions within governing structures is more likely to serve black interests than building coalitions in simply electing officials). Indeed, in jurisdictions whose officials are elected from single-member districts and in which most black voters are concentrated in one or a few districts, this is precisely the point at which effective coalitions are built. Thus, limited voting is no less likely than election by district to permit or encourage biracial coalition formation.14 Third, Dr. Alford's observations on the dangers of 14 The same is true of Dr. Alford's claims regarding the inability of voters in a limited-vote jurisdiction to influence the election of more than one candidate. In jurisdictions using single-member district elections, precisely the same criticism can be leveled. See Tr. at 252. 31 factionalization simply are inapposite to the issue in this case. The sole question before this Court is whether the black residents of Covington and Lamar Counties will have an equal opportunity to elect their preferred candidates. It is irrelevant how the white community splits its votes among its preferred candidates. Thus, if a group of white voters with discrete interests are underrepresented relative to other white voters, their miscalculations are simply the stuff of politics as usual. Dr. Alford in no way suggested that limited voting would in any sense impair the political cohesiveness of the black community. Again, to the extent that limited voting tends to diminish the hegemony of the majority community, that characteristic is a benefit, rather than a detriment, in using it as a remedy for historic white domination. Conclusion This Court has the power, and the obligation, to develop an election system for the Covington and Lamar County Boards of Education that gives their black residents an equal opportunity to elect representatives to bodies that have long been chosen by a process deliberately designed to exclude black representatives and black influence. The defendants have provided absolutely no evidence to show that their proposed plans provide the opportunity required by section 2. Plaintiffs have proposed an alternative system. We believe defendants' criticisms of limited voting are meritless in the context of Covington and Lamar County 32 Board elections. But if the Court credits those objections, it has the duty to develop a system which more nearly provides black citizens with the rights so long denied them. It cannot simply consign them to the continued use of election schemes that exclude them from the fundamental processes of government. LARRY T. MENEFEE 5th Floor, Title Building 300 21st Street, North Birmingham, Alabama 35203 JAMES U. BLACKSHER 465 Dauphin Street Mobile, Alabama 36602 W. EDWARD STILL 714 South 29th Street Birmingham, Alabama 35233 JULIUS L. CHAMBERS LANI GUINIER PAMELA S. KARLAN 99 Hudson Street, 16th Floor New York, New York 10013 Attorneys for Plaintiffs Dated: April 22, 1988 33 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I hereby certify that on this 22d day of April 1988, a copy of the foregoing Post-Trial Brief was served upon the following counsel, by depositing the same in the United States mail, postage prepaid: David R. Boyd Balch & Bingam P.0. Box 78 Montgomery, AL 36101 Susan Russ Assistant Attorney General Attorney General's Office 11 South Union Street Montgomery, AL 36130 Ronald H. Strawbridge P.0. Box 522 Vernon, AL 35592 Attorney for Plaintiffs 34 The following two examples are each based on a town with 1000 voters and a seven-member council elected by limited vote, with each voter having only one vote. The threshold of exclusion would be 126, that is, a candidate who receives the votes of 126 voters is guaranteed election, since it is impossible for the other 874 voters to allocate their votes in a way that will result in seven candidates' getting 126 votes or more. Example 1: Town 1 has 893 white voters (89.3% of the electorate) and 107 black voters (10.7% of the electorate).1 Its black community unanimously supports one candidate. Under the worst-case scenario, the black community will not elect its preferred candidate. The worst-case scenario is that: (1) only seven white candidates run; (2) the white community supports only those seven candidates (i.e.. no white crossover voting); and (3) the white community divides its votes evenly among these seven candidates so that the least-favored white candidate receives the highest possible number of votes:2 1 In Covington County, 10.7% of registered voters are black. See Tr. at 330 (stipulation). For ease of reference, all candidates who are numbered are white candidates and "candidate # 1" will represent the most popular white candidate, while "candidate # 7" or "candidate # 8" will be the least popular. Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 128 YesWhite # 2 128 Yes White # 3 128 YesWhite # 4 128 YesWhite # 5 127 YesWhite # 6 127 YesWhite # 7 127 YesBlack 107 No TOTAL 1000 Relaxing any of the assumptions about white voting behavior can permit the black community to elect its preferred candidate. If eight white candidates run, and if candidate # 8 captures only 16.5% of the votes which would otherwise go to candidate # 7 (only 2.3% of the total white vote), then the black candidate will be elected: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 128 YesWhite # 2 128 YesWhite # 3 128 YesWhite # 4 128 YesWhite # 5 127 YesWhite # 6 127 YesWhite # 7 106 NoWhite # 8 21 NoBlack 107 YesTOTAL 1000 Similarly, a minimal level of white cross-over voting for the candidate preferred by the black community can allow that candidate to win. Suppose again that only seven white candidates run. But eleven whites who might otherwise have voted for the least-favored white candidate instead support the black candidate. (They would represent 8.7% of the support for the Appendix-2 least-favored white candidate and only 1.2% of the entire white electorate.): Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 128 YesWhite # 2 128 YesWhite # 3 128 YesWhite # 4 128 YesWhite # 5 127 Yes White # 6 127 Yes White # 7 116 No Black 118 YesTOTAL 1000 In addition, if the white community does not spread its votes evenly among the seven white candidates, the black community's candidate can win. Under the worst-case scenario, candidate # 1 candidate gets only 128 votes (or 14.3% of the votes cast by white voters). Suppose instead that the whites' favorite candidate gets 28.2% of the white votes (or 252 of 893), and that the white community spreads the rest of its votes evenly among the remaining six white candidates (to maximize the votes received by candidate # 7). In that case the black candidate will win: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 252 YesWhite # 2 107 YesWhite # 3 107 YesWhite # 4 107 YesWhite # 5 107 YesWhite # 6 107 YesWhite # 7 106 NoBlack 107 YesTOTAL 1000 Appendix-3 The deviation, of course, need not go to one candidate. For example, if candidates #1, #2, and #3 were to increase their shares of white votes cast from 14.3% each to between 16.5% and 16.7% each, and were to draw these votes roughly evenly from candidates #5, #6, and #7, this would allow the black candidate to win: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 149 YesWhite # 2 148 YesWhite # 3 148 YesWhite # 4 128 YesWhite # 5 107 YesWhite # 6 107 YesWhite # 7 106 NoBlack 107 YesTOTAL 1000 Of course, if more than one of these "deviations" were to occur (for example, more than seven white candidates run and there is some white crossover voting), then the likelihood of the black-supported candidate being elected increases even more. Suppose that only 18 (or 2%) of the 894 white voters deviate from the worst-case scenario: ten white voters vote for an eighth white candidate; four white voters who "should" have voted for candidate # 7 vote instead for candidate # 1; and four white voters vote for the candidate supported by the black community: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 132 YesWhite # 2 128 YesWhite # 3 128 YesWhite # 4 128 YesWhite # 5 127 Yes Appendix-4 White # 6 127 YesWhite # 7 109 NoWhite # 8 10 NoBlack 111 Yes TOTAL 1000 * * * Example 2: Consider a town with 906 white voters (90.6% of the electorate) and 94 black voters (9.4% of the electorate).-* Again, assume that the black community unanimously supports one candidate. Here, too, under the worst-case scenario, the black community will not elect its preferred candidate: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 130 YesWhite # 2 130 YesWhite # 3 130 YesWhite # 4 129 YesWhite # 5 129 YesWhite # 6 129 YesWhite # 7 129 YesBlack 94 NoTOTAL 1000 But, as Example 1 showed, relaxing any of the assumptions about white voting behavior can permit the black community to elect its preferred candidate. If eight white candidates run, and if candidate # 8 captures 36 white votes (only 28% of the votes which would otherwise go to candidate # 7 and only 4% of the total white vote), then the J In Lamar County, 9.41% of the registered voters are black. See Tr. at 330 (stipulation). Appendix-5 black candidate will be elected: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 130 YesWhite # 2 130 YesWhite # 3 130 YesWhite # 4 129 YesWhite # 5 129 YesWhite # 6 129 YesWhite # 7 93 NoWhite # 8 36 NoBlack 94 YesTOTAL 1000 Similarly, a minimal level of white crossover voting can affect the outcome. If 18 whites (14% of the support for the least-favored white candidate and only 2% of the entire white electorate) who might otherwise have voted for candidate # 7 instead support the black candidate, the black candidate can win: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 130 YesWhite # 2 130 YesWhite # 3 130 YesWhite # 4 129 YesWhite # 5 129 YesWhite # 6 129 YesWhite # 7 111 NoBlack 112 YesTOTAL 1000 Similarly, if the white community does not spread its votes evenly among the seven white candidates, the black community's candidate can win. Under the worst-case scenario, candidate # 1 gets only 130 votes (or 14.3% of the votes cast by white voters). Suppose instead that he gets 37.3% of the white votes (or 338 of 906), and that the white community spreads the rest of its votes Appendix-6 evenly among the remaining six white candidates (to maximize the votes received by candidate # 7) . In that case the black candidate will win: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 338 YesWhite # 2 95 YesWhite # 3 95 YesWhite # 4 95 YesWhite # 5 95 YesWhite # 6 95 YesWhite # 7 93 NoBlack 94 YesTOTAL 1000 Again, the votes need not flow solely to candidate #1. For example, if candidates #1, #2, and #3 were to increase their shares of white votes cast from 14.3% each to a little over 18% each, and were to draw these votes roughly evenly from candidates #5, #6, and #7, this would allow the black candidate to win: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 166 YesWhite # 2 165 YesWhite # 3 165 YesWhite # 4 129 YesWhite # 5 94 YesWhite # 6 94 YesWhite # 7 93 NoBlack 94 YesTOTAL 1000 If more than one of these deviations were to occur, this would also make it possible for the candidate supported by the black community to win. For example, suppose that 31 (or 3.4%) of the 906 white voters do not follow the optimal strategy (from Appendix-7 the point of view of shutting out the black candidate): sixteen support an eighth white candidate; ten who "should" have supported candidate # 7 instead support candidate # 1; and five vote for the black candidate: Candidate Votes Elected? White # 1 140 YesWhite # 2 130 YesWhite # 3 130 YesWhite # 4 129 YesWhite # 5 129 YesWhite # 6 129 YesWhite # 7 98 NoWhite # 8 16 NoBlack 99 YesTOTAL 1000 Appendix-8