Racially Polarized Voting in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana by Richard Engstrom

    RACIALLY POLARIZED VOTING 

in JEFFERSON PARISH, LOUISIANA 

By 

RICHARD L. ENGSTROM, PH.D. 

RESEARCH PROFESSOR of POLITICAL SCIENCE 

UNIVERSITY OF NEW ORLEANS 



On 20 occasions since 1980, voters within Jefferson 

Parish, Louisiana, have been presented with a choice between or 

among black and white candidates 

the Parish. Analyses of these 

below, reveal that if only the 

these elections had been counted, 

been elected in 14 or 15 of them. 

the votes cast by whites had been 

candidate would have been elected. 

seeking public offices within 

elections, reported in detail 

votes cast by black people in 

black candidates would have 

If, on the other hand, only 

counted, not a single black 

When black candidates have 

competed with white candidates in Jefferson Parish in the 1980's, 

there has invariably been a consistent relationship between the 

racial composition of the precinct electorates and the vote cast 

within those precincts, and the magnitude of the estimated 

differences in the candidate preferences of white and black 

voters has usually been .large. Voting in the vast majority of 

these elections, therefore, has been "racially polarized*, as 

defined by the United States Supreme Court in Thornburg V. 

ingles,, 106 S.Ct. - 2752, at 2768 n.21 (1986). Indeed, in 10 of 

these 

black 

elections, the estimated racial division in the vote for 

candidates exceeds the largest division in the vote for any 

election within the invalidated multi-member legislative 

districts reported in Thornburg (at 2782 - 2783). 

The 20 elections have been analyzed by employing both 

bivarate ecological regression analysis and the complementary 

technique of extreme case (on homogeneous precinct) analysis. 

2 



These analytic procedures have been applied, as in Thornburg, in 

order to derive 'estimates of the percentage of members of each 

race who voted for black candidates' (at 2768). More 

specifically, both the regression analysis and the extreme case 

analysis have been performed in a manner that produces estimates 

of the 'percentage of candidates"(Thornburg, at 2782 - 2783). 

The following reports the estimated racial divisions in 

the vote for the black candidates in each of these elections. In 

order to simplify the presentation, estimates derived through 

regression will be presented first, followed parenthetically by 

those based on voting within homogeneous precincts. Estimates 

from regression are based on comparisons between the race of the 

voters and the support for the black candidates in every precinct 

in which votes have been cast, while those from homogeneous 

precincts are based only on precincts that are predominantly 

black or predominantly white (i.e., precincts in which at least 

90% of the electorate is of one race) 

In addition to the estimated divisions in the vote, the 

actual 'correlation between the racial composition of precincts 

and support for the black candidates in each precinct, as 

measured by the 'correlation coefficient' or Pierson's r, is also 

reported for each election. This coefficient measures how 

consistently, over all of the precincts, the vote for the black 

candidate varies with the racial composition of the precincts. 

3 



The maximum value that this coefficient can reach is 

.1.0. The lowest value for r obtained for-any of these elections 

was .759. In the vast majority of elections, the vote for the 

black candidate correlated with the racial composition of the 

precincts at a level greater than 9.0. 

Data reflecting the race of the people who signed in 

the vote in the various precincts on the day of the election have 

been provided by the Register of Voters in Jefferson Parish for 

the 15 elections held prior to August 30, 1986, and these data 

serve as the measure of the racial composition of the precincts 

for those elections. Sign-in data are not available, however, 

eor elections held on that date or later, and therefore, 'the 

racial composition of the precincts in these elections is based 

on the race of the people registered to vote in the election 

within the precinct. The vote within each precinct is taken from 

the official election returns. 

• I. 

PARISHWIDE 

Only one of the 20 elections involves a black candidate 

seeking a parishwide office in Jefferson. In August of 1987, Mr. 

Anderson Council, a black, was a candidate for Judge of Juvenile 

Court, Section A. The correlation between the race of the 

registered voters in this election and, the vote for Mr. Council 

4 



across the 255 precincts in Jefferson was very high, .914. Mr. 

Council, who competed with. two white candidates for this 

position, is estimated to have received 80.8% (74.9%) of the 

votes cast by blacks, but only 3.1% (4.5%) of those cast by 

whites, and as a consequence finished last among the three 

candidates. 

KENNER  

The City of Kenner, located in the western portion of 

the East Bank of Jefferson Parish (see Map A), is the largest 

municipality in Jefferson. Black candidates have competed with 

white candidates for municipal office in Kenner on five occasions 

since 1980, three of which involved elections to citywide offices 

in this majority white city. The latest citywide candidacy was 

that of Emmitt N. Richardson, who sought an at-large seat to the 

Kenner City Council in a special election in May of this year. 

The correlation coefficient between the race of the registered . 

voters and the vote for Mr. Richardson across the 31 precincts in 

Kenner was .988. Despite competing with five white candidates, 

Mr. Richarson is estimated to have received 80.1% (80.9%) of the 

votes ca.st by blacks, but virtually none (4.0% in the 

homogeneous precincts) of the votes cast by whites, and he 

therefore finished fourth among the six candidates. 

Two black candidates competed with white candidates for 

citywide posts in April of 1986. Michael Austin, a black, 

opposed Salvador J. Lentini for the position of Chief of Police. 

5 



The correlation coefficient between the race of the people who 

signed-in to vote that day and the vote for Mr. Austin across the 

31 precincts was .903. Support among black voters for these two 

candidates was virtually even. Mr. Austin is estimated through 

regression to have received 49.1% of the votes cast by blacks, 

and 50.1% through on examination of the votes cast in blAck 

homogeneous precincts. White voters strongly supported the white 

candidate, however, casting only 14.7% (15.3%) of their votes for 

Mr. Austin, and Austin was therefore soundly defeated. 

The other contest in April, 1986, was for the election 

at-large of two members of the city council. Oscar Code, a 

black, sought an at-large seat along with two whites, Nicholas J. 

Baroni and Edmond J. Muniz. In this election, every voter was 

permitted , but not required to cast votes for two candidates. 

When the vote for the different candidates is regressed onto the 

percentage of voters who signed-in that day, Mr. Cade is revealed 

to be the second choice among black voters, but the last choice 

of the white voters. Mr. Baroni is estimated to have received a 

vote from 19.7% (53.0%) of the blacks who signed-in, Mr. Cade, 

42.6% (40.0%), and*Mr. Muniz 32.9% (37.0%). Mr Cade, however, 

received votes from only 12.1% (13.07%) of the whites who signed 

in, and therefore, both of the seats were awarded to the white 

candidates. 

Another recent election in Kenner involving black and 

white candidates was the 1982 election for the District 1 seat on 

6 



the city council (See Map B). At the time of this election, a 

majority (54.8%) of the registered voters in District 1, which 

covers 7 precincts in Kenner, was black. Three black candidates, 

Wilma K. Irvin, Shirley G. Burton, and Anderson Council sought 

this seat along with two white candidates, John M. Stoulig and 

Harry Polito. The votes for each of the black candidates 

strongly correlated with the racial composition of the precincts 

(Ms. Irvin, r = .963; Ms. Burton, r = .921, and Mr. Council, r = 

879). The black candidates collectively received 95.8% (97.3%) 

of the votes cast by blacks, distributed as follows; Ms. Irvin, 

39.5% (36.4%), Ms. Burton, 32.4% (28.6%), and Mr. Council, 23.9% 

(32.3%). Ms. Irvin, in turn, is estimated to have received only 

8.02% (7.9%) of the votes cast by whites, Ms. Burton, 8.8% 

(8.6%), and Mr. Council 0.0% (2.4%). Blacks constituted 56.3% of 

the voters participating in this election, and their most 

preferred candidate, Ms. Irving, was placed in a runoff with Mr. 

Stoulig. In the runoff, 56.4% of the people voting were black. 

Ms. Irvin's vote .correlated at .984 with the racial composition 

of the precincts. She is estimated to have received 82.2% 

(88.0%) of the votes cast by blacks along with 11.9% (15.9%) of 

those cast by whites, which was sufficient to elect Ms. Irvin. 

School Board, Districts 3 and 7 

District 7 of the Jefferson Parish School Board 

encompasses 26 precincts on both the East and West Banks of 

Jefferson Parish (See Map C). In the September, 1984 election, 

Herbert Wallace, Jr., a black, was a candidate for this seat on 

7 



the board along with two white candidates. Mr. Wallace's suppo'rt 

across the 26 precincts was correlated with the racial 

composition of the precinct electorates at .759. Blacks voting 

in this election are estimated to have cast a majority of their 

votes, 57.5% (61.9%) for Mr. Wallace. Whites, however, gave Mr. 

Wallace only 8.7% (10.8%) of their votes, and he therefore was 

defeated. 

A second school board seat, that for District 3, had 

been contested the previous year by Ellis Wilson, a black. 

District 3 encompasses 21 precincts on the West Bank east of 

District 7 (Map c). Six white candidates also sought the 

district 3 seat in the October, 1983 election. Mr. Wilson's vote 

correlated with the racial composition of the precinct at .995. 

He is estimated to have received only 3.2% (5.2%) of the ,votes 

cast by whites, but 84.2% (8.4.4%) of those cast by blacks. The 

white vote was severely divided across the six white candidates, 

resulting in Mr. w4lson placing first in this election, 95 votes 

ahead of the second place candidate, Robert A. .Autin. In the 

run-off election in November, Mr. Autin soundly defeated Mr. 

Wilson. The vote for Wilson again correlated strongly, .981, 

with the racial composition of the precincts. His share of the 

black votes increased to 93.5% (93.0%) in this election, while 

his share of the white vote is estimated to have been 18.5% 

(20.8%) 

8 



7th Justice Court  

Located between school board District 3 and 7 on the 

West Bank (and overlapping District 7 slightly ) is the 

geographical area for the 7th Justice court (see Map D). This is 

a recently created majority black district that encompasses 5 

precincts. A special election to choose a Justice of the Peace 

and Constable in this district was held on April 4th of this 

year. At the time of this special election, 66.1% of the 

registered voters in the District was black. Mr. Hebert Wallace, 

a black, successfully sought the position of Constable, soundly 

defeating a single white opponent, Mr. Bryan Hymel. Mr. 

Wallace's vote correlated with the black percentage of 

registration in the precincts at .881. The turnout for this 

constable election, however, was very low, as only 25.8% of the 

registered voters cast a ballot. 

Turnout was especially low among whites. Only 11.9% 

(13.2%) of the white's registered -voters voted for a constable 

candidate, compared to 32.8% (35.4%) of the blacks. Given the 

small 'number of precincts and -low white turnout, precise 

estimates of the racial division in the vote must be interpreted 

with caution. Both regression and homogeneous precinct analy'ses 

provide similar estimates of Mr. Wallace's share of the black 

vote, 94.5% and 93.6% respectively, and there should be little 

doubt that he was the preferred candidate among black voters. 

Estimates of this share of the white vote differ substantially, 

however, from 0.0% (regression) to 31.8% (in the single white 

9 



homogeneous precinct). Even accepting the more generous estimate 

of 31.8%, Mr. Wallace can hardly be considered the choice of the 

white voters, especially in light of the fact that Mr. Hymel won 

substantial majorities (68.2% and 64.9%) in each of the majority 

white precincts. 

State House District 87 

Thirteen precincts in the Marrero and Harvey area of 

the West Bank 

Representatives 

candidate for 

comprise District 87 of the Louisiana 

(see Map E). A black, Lloyd Lewis, 

this legislature seat along with five 

House of 

Sr. was a 

whites in 

October 22, 1983 election. The correlation between the racial 

composition of the election in these 13 precincts and the vote 

for Mr. Lewis was .998. He was the choice of over a majority of 

the blacks participating in this election, receiving 60.8% 

(60.0%) of their votes. White voters, however, gave him little 

support. He is estimated through regression to have received 

0,0% of the votes cast by whites, and through homogeneous 

precincts, only 2.2%. The white vote was severely dispersed 

across the five white candidates however, which allowed Mr. Lewis 

to finish second (by 10 votes) and earned a position in a runoff 

election with N.J. Damico. In the runoff, the vote for Mr. Lewis 

again correlated strongly with the racial composition of the 

precincts, .998, and his support among black voters is estimated 

to have risen to 94.3% (93.9%). This was not sufficient to elect 

Mr. Lewis, however, as he received the votes of only 5.8% (7.7%) 

of the whites voting. 

10 



Gretna 

Located in the eastern end of the West Bank of 

Jefferson Parish is the City of Gretna (Map F) . Voting in 

Gretna was recently found to be racially polarized in Citizens  

for a Better Gretna V. City, of Gretna, Civ. No. 84-4901, 

(U.S.D.C., E.D. La. May 12, 1986). Since that litigation, blacks 

on two occasions have competed with white candidates for 

municipal office in Gretna. In the March 1985 election, Roy 

Wilson, a black, was a candidate for Chief of Police, along with 

two whites, Beauregard H. Miller, Jr. and Joseph F. Cerniglia. 

The vote for Mr. Wilson in this election correlated with the 

racial composition of the 13 precincts in Gretna at .974. He is 

estimated, through regression, to have received 64.7% of the 

votes cast by blacks (no black homogeneous precincts exist in 

Gretna on which to base a second estimate). His vote among 

whites is estimated to have been only 1.3% (3.2%), however, and 

he was, therefore, defeated. 

In April of this year, Gretna held an election for the 

seats on its city council, employing the new electoral 

arrangement adopted following the Citizens for a Better Gretna 

decision. A majority black district in that new arrangement, 

District 11 was contested only by black candidates. A second 

district, No. 3, was also contested by a black, Terry Videau, 

along with seven white'candidates. District 3 comprises only tow 

precincts (map G), neither of which is racially homogeneous, and 

therefore, no statistical coefficients will be reported for this 

election. 

11 



It can be noted, however, that as in other elections involving 

black 'candidates in Gretna, Mr. Videau's vote was correlated with 

the racial composition of the precincts, in that he received 

16.7% of the votes in the precinct in which 27.3% of the 

registered voters was black, and 21.1% in the precinct in which 

blacks comprised 35.6% of the registered voters. Mr. Videau was 

able to finish second among this large field of candidates, and 

therefore competed in a runoff election in may. In the runoff, 

Mr. videau's vote was even more closely linked to the racial 

composAion of the precincts; he received 26.3% of the votes in 

the precinct in which voter registration was 28.0% black, and 

31.6% of the votes in the precinct that was 35.9% black in 

registration. This close association between the vote for Videau 

and the presence of black registered voters, in light of the 

usual racial divisions in the support for black candidates in 

Gretna, suggests that Mr. Videau was the preferred candidate of 

the black voters in District 3. 

Other Black Candidates 

Black Voters in Jefferson Parish have not given their 

support to every black candidate in the Parish. On five 

occasions .since 1980,, the estimated divisions in the vote allow 

one to infer that the black candidate would have lost the 

election even if only the votes cast by blacks had been counted. 

Shirley Burton, for example, has twice been a candidate for the 

Louisiana House of Representatives from District 92 with the 

Parish, in 1983 and 1986. In the first attempt, she is estimated 

12 



• 

to have received 45.7% (41.3%) of the black vote and 15.9% 

(16.56) of the white. In the second, she received 46.1% (37.9%) 

and 3.8% (5.4%), respectively. In 1983, two blacks were 

candidates for the parish council. Mr. Leon T. Williams sought 

the councilman-at-large position for Districts 3 and 4, receiving 

28.5% (31.4%) of the votes cost by blacks and 4.5% (4.7%) of 

those cost by whites, Mr. Robert Hamilton sought the District 2 

seat, receiving an estimated 27.8% (27.1%) of the votes of black 

and 3.9% (4.6%) of those of whites. Finally, Sylvester Brown, a 

candidate for the District 1 seat on the parish school board in 

1984, received an estimated 29.1% of the votes cast by blacks 

(there were no black homogeneous precincts in the district), and 

0.5% .(0.9%) of those cast by whites. 

Black voters in Jefferson Parish have demonstrated, on 

numerous occasions since 1980, a preference for black candidates 

over white candidates. When this has happened, the preference 

for the black candidate has never been shared by the white 

voters. Only two of these black candidates (Mr. Irvin and Mr. 

Wallace) have been elected, each in a majority black electoral 

unit (District 1 in Kenner and the 7th Justice District, 

respectively). Among tbe others, three have progressed as far as 

a runoff election, only to then lose to a white candidate. 

Voting in Jefferson Parish is clearly racially polarized, to a 

degree that has usually precluded black voters from having an 

equal opportunity to elect the candidates of their choice. 

13 



1. See, Grofman, Migalski, and Nouiello, the 

°Totality of Ciraumstances Test° in Section 2 of the 1982 

Extension of the Voting Rights Act: A Social Science Perspective, 

7 LAW AND POLICY 119, 202 - 205 (cited in Thornburg V. Gingles,, 

106 S.Ct. 2752, at 2768 (1986). This methodology is also 

explained in Grofman, An Outline for Racial Bloc Voting Analysis, 

Plaintiffs' Exhibit 12, at 1-5 1 Gingles V. Edmisten, 590 F.Supp. 

345 (1984). 

2. These estimates are also reported in tabular form 

in Appendices A and B, 

estimates reported in the 

are derived from weighted 

respectively. The regression-based 

text of this report and in Appendix A 

regressions that take into account the 

vast differences in.the relative size of precinct electorates. 

Estimates based on unweighted regressions, in which every 

precinct is treated as an equal unit regardless of the size of 

the vote within it, are reported in Appendix C. The conclusions 

expressed in this report are supported by the results of both the 

weighted and the unweighted analysis. 

3. Th9 correlation coefficient can be interpreted as 

a measure of how well the data fit the 

which ecological regression is based. 

if r > .50, then the 'fit' should be 

assumption of linearity on 

Grofman has suggested that 

considered adequate. See 

14 



• 

Grofman, Migalski, and Noviello, supra. note f, at 206. John K. 

Wildgen has further noted that a correlation coefficient of .867, 

in the context of a voting analysis such as this, is 'remarkably 

good'. See Wildgen, A Political Problem of Public Education' in 

New Orleans, 8 LA. BUS. SURVEY, 5, 6n.3 (July, 1977). 

4. The race of the people signing-in to vote has been 

recorded by the Registrar of Voters as either black or white. A 

small percentage of the registered voters however, (currently 

0.5%) has been classified as "other". When relying on 

registration data to measure the racial composition of precincts, 

the percentage of registered voters who are black serves as the 

measure. This measure therefore, results, technically, in 

estimates of the voting behavior of blacks and non-blacks. Give 

that virtually all of the non-blacks are white (currently, 

99.5%), the estimates for non-blacks will be reported in the text 

as estimates for whites. 

15 



• 
APPENDIX A 

Results of Weighted Regression Analyses 

Z of white Zof black . 

Black voters for black voters for black Correlation 
Election Year Candidate Candidate Candidate Coefficient  

Juvenile Court, 
Section A 1987 Council 3.1 80.8 .914 

Kenner Council, 
At-Large 1987 Richardson 0.0 80.1 .988 

Kenner Chief 
of Police 1986 Austin 14.7 49.1 .903 

Kenner Coucil 
At-Large 1986 Cade 12.1* 42.6* .940 

Kenner Council 
District 1 1982 Irvin 8.0 39.5 .963 

Burton 8.8 32.4 .921 

Council 0.0 23.9 .879 

Kenner Council 
Dist. 1 Runoff 1982 Irvin 11.9 82.2 .984 

School Board, 
District 7 1984 Wallace 8.7 57.5 .757 

School Board, 
District 3 1983 _Wilson 3.2 84.2 .995 

School Board, • 
Dist.3 Runoff 1983 Wilson 18.5 93.5 .981 

Constable, 
7th Jus.Dist., 1987 Wallace 0.0 94.5 .881 

House Dist.87 1983 - Lewis 5.8 94.3 .998 

House Dist.87 
Runoff 1983 Lewis 5.8 94.3 .998 

Gretna Chief 
of Police 1985 Wilson 1.3 64.7 .974 

Figure R for the percentage of whites and blacks 
signing-in or election day, not the percentage 

voting in the election for the at-large seats. 

16 • 



APPENDIX B 

Results of Homogeneous Precinct 

2 of white 2 of black 

Black voters for black voters for black 
Election Year Candidate Candidate Candidate, 

Juvenile Court, 
Section A 1987 Council 4.5 74.9 

Kenner Council, 
At-Large 1987 Richardson 4.0 80.9 

Kenner Chief 
of Police 1986 Austin 15.3 50.1 

Kenner Coucil 
At-Large 1986 Cade 13.0* 40.0* 

Kenner Council 
District 1 1982 Irvin 7.9 36.4 

Burton 8.6 28.6 

Council 2.4 32.3 

Kenner Council 
Dist. 1 Runoff 1982 Irvin 15.9 88.0 

School Board, 
District 7 1984 Wallace 10.8 61.9 

School Board, 
District 3 1983 Wilson 5.2 84.4 

School Board, • 
Dist.3 Runoff 1983 Wilson 20.8 93.0 

Constable, 
7th Jus.Dist. , 1987 Wallace 31.8 93.0 

House Dist.87 1983 - Lewis 2.2 60.2 

House Dist.87 
Runoff 1983 Lewis 7.7 93.9 

Gretna Chief 
of Police 1985 Wilson 3.2 NA 

Figure B for the percentage of whites and blacks 
signing-in or election day, not the percentage 

voting in the election for the at-large seats. 

17 



• 
APPENDIX C 

Election. 

Results of unweighted Regression Analyses 

.2 of white 2 of black 

Black voters for black voters for black Correlation 
Year Candidate Candidate Candidate Coefficient  

Juvenile Court, 
Section A 1987 Council 

Kenner Council, 
At-Large 1987 Richardson 

Kenner Chief 
of Police 1986 Austin 

Kenner Coucil 
At-Large 1986 Cade 

Kenner Council 
District 1 1982 Irvin 

Burton 

Council 

Kenner Council 
Dist. 1 Runoff 1982 Irvin 

School Board, 
District 7 1984 Wallace 

School Board, 
District 3 • 1983 Wilson 

School Board, 
Dist.3 Runoff 1983 Wilson 

Constable, 
7th Jus.Dist. , 1987 Wallace 

House Dist.87 1983 Lewis 

House Dist.87 
Runoff 1983 Lewis 

Gretna Chief 
of Police 1985 Wilson 

3.1 

0.0 

14. 7 

11.9* 

10.0 

9.1 

77.2 .909 

78,3 .988 

48.4 .871 

41.5* .917 

38.5 .949 

31.7 .937 

0.0 24.5 .905 

15.1 81.9 .979 

8.4 55.3 .753 

2.7 84.2 .994 

18.4 .93.8 .975 

0.8 92.7 .894 

0.0 60.5 .998 

5.9 94.5 .998 

3.2 NA .981 

Figure B for the percentage of whites and blacks 
signing-in or election day, not the percentage 
voting in the election for the at-large seats. 

18 



I. 

• 

MAP A 

CITY OF KENNER 

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• 

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MAP 0 
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• • 

MAP E 
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•LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

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• 

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