Racially Polarized Voting in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana by Richard Engstrom
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January 1, 1988

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Case Files, Chisom Hardbacks. Racially Polarized Voting in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana by Richard Engstrom, 1988. 2d7bb225-f211-ef11-9f8a-6045bddc4804. LDF Archives, Thurgood Marshall Institute. https://ldfrecollection.org/archives/archives-search/archives-item/5a07ecc3-d7ef-45b4-91db-37aa3827e50e/racially-polarized-voting-in-jefferson-parish-louisiana-by-richard-engstrom. Accessed April 27, 2025.
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RACIALLY POLARIZED VOTING in JEFFERSON PARISH, LOUISIANA By RICHARD L. ENGSTROM, PH.D. RESEARCH PROFESSOR of POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF NEW ORLEANS On 20 occasions since 1980, voters within Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, have been presented with a choice between or among black and white candidates the Parish. Analyses of these below, reveal that if only the these elections had been counted, been elected in 14 or 15 of them. the votes cast by whites had been candidate would have been elected. seeking public offices within elections, reported in detail votes cast by black people in black candidates would have If, on the other hand, only counted, not a single black When black candidates have competed with white candidates in Jefferson Parish in the 1980's, there has invariably been a consistent relationship between the racial composition of the precinct electorates and the vote cast within those precincts, and the magnitude of the estimated differences in the candidate preferences of white and black voters has usually been .large. Voting in the vast majority of these elections, therefore, has been "racially polarized*, as defined by the United States Supreme Court in Thornburg V. ingles,, 106 S.Ct. - 2752, at 2768 n.21 (1986). Indeed, in 10 of these black elections, the estimated racial division in the vote for candidates exceeds the largest division in the vote for any election within the invalidated multi-member legislative districts reported in Thornburg (at 2782 - 2783). The 20 elections have been analyzed by employing both bivarate ecological regression analysis and the complementary technique of extreme case (on homogeneous precinct) analysis. 2 These analytic procedures have been applied, as in Thornburg, in order to derive 'estimates of the percentage of members of each race who voted for black candidates' (at 2768). More specifically, both the regression analysis and the extreme case analysis have been performed in a manner that produces estimates of the 'percentage of candidates"(Thornburg, at 2782 - 2783). The following reports the estimated racial divisions in the vote for the black candidates in each of these elections. In order to simplify the presentation, estimates derived through regression will be presented first, followed parenthetically by those based on voting within homogeneous precincts. Estimates from regression are based on comparisons between the race of the voters and the support for the black candidates in every precinct in which votes have been cast, while those from homogeneous precincts are based only on precincts that are predominantly black or predominantly white (i.e., precincts in which at least 90% of the electorate is of one race) In addition to the estimated divisions in the vote, the actual 'correlation between the racial composition of precincts and support for the black candidates in each precinct, as measured by the 'correlation coefficient' or Pierson's r, is also reported for each election. This coefficient measures how consistently, over all of the precincts, the vote for the black candidate varies with the racial composition of the precincts. 3 The maximum value that this coefficient can reach is .1.0. The lowest value for r obtained for-any of these elections was .759. In the vast majority of elections, the vote for the black candidate correlated with the racial composition of the precincts at a level greater than 9.0. Data reflecting the race of the people who signed in the vote in the various precincts on the day of the election have been provided by the Register of Voters in Jefferson Parish for the 15 elections held prior to August 30, 1986, and these data serve as the measure of the racial composition of the precincts for those elections. Sign-in data are not available, however, eor elections held on that date or later, and therefore, 'the racial composition of the precincts in these elections is based on the race of the people registered to vote in the election within the precinct. The vote within each precinct is taken from the official election returns. • I. PARISHWIDE Only one of the 20 elections involves a black candidate seeking a parishwide office in Jefferson. In August of 1987, Mr. Anderson Council, a black, was a candidate for Judge of Juvenile Court, Section A. The correlation between the race of the registered voters in this election and, the vote for Mr. Council 4 across the 255 precincts in Jefferson was very high, .914. Mr. Council, who competed with. two white candidates for this position, is estimated to have received 80.8% (74.9%) of the votes cast by blacks, but only 3.1% (4.5%) of those cast by whites, and as a consequence finished last among the three candidates. KENNER The City of Kenner, located in the western portion of the East Bank of Jefferson Parish (see Map A), is the largest municipality in Jefferson. Black candidates have competed with white candidates for municipal office in Kenner on five occasions since 1980, three of which involved elections to citywide offices in this majority white city. The latest citywide candidacy was that of Emmitt N. Richardson, who sought an at-large seat to the Kenner City Council in a special election in May of this year. The correlation coefficient between the race of the registered . voters and the vote for Mr. Richardson across the 31 precincts in Kenner was .988. Despite competing with five white candidates, Mr. Richarson is estimated to have received 80.1% (80.9%) of the votes ca.st by blacks, but virtually none (4.0% in the homogeneous precincts) of the votes cast by whites, and he therefore finished fourth among the six candidates. Two black candidates competed with white candidates for citywide posts in April of 1986. Michael Austin, a black, opposed Salvador J. Lentini for the position of Chief of Police. 5 The correlation coefficient between the race of the people who signed-in to vote that day and the vote for Mr. Austin across the 31 precincts was .903. Support among black voters for these two candidates was virtually even. Mr. Austin is estimated through regression to have received 49.1% of the votes cast by blacks, and 50.1% through on examination of the votes cast in blAck homogeneous precincts. White voters strongly supported the white candidate, however, casting only 14.7% (15.3%) of their votes for Mr. Austin, and Austin was therefore soundly defeated. The other contest in April, 1986, was for the election at-large of two members of the city council. Oscar Code, a black, sought an at-large seat along with two whites, Nicholas J. Baroni and Edmond J. Muniz. In this election, every voter was permitted , but not required to cast votes for two candidates. When the vote for the different candidates is regressed onto the percentage of voters who signed-in that day, Mr. Cade is revealed to be the second choice among black voters, but the last choice of the white voters. Mr. Baroni is estimated to have received a vote from 19.7% (53.0%) of the blacks who signed-in, Mr. Cade, 42.6% (40.0%), and*Mr. Muniz 32.9% (37.0%). Mr Cade, however, received votes from only 12.1% (13.07%) of the whites who signed in, and therefore, both of the seats were awarded to the white candidates. Another recent election in Kenner involving black and white candidates was the 1982 election for the District 1 seat on 6 the city council (See Map B). At the time of this election, a majority (54.8%) of the registered voters in District 1, which covers 7 precincts in Kenner, was black. Three black candidates, Wilma K. Irvin, Shirley G. Burton, and Anderson Council sought this seat along with two white candidates, John M. Stoulig and Harry Polito. The votes for each of the black candidates strongly correlated with the racial composition of the precincts (Ms. Irvin, r = .963; Ms. Burton, r = .921, and Mr. Council, r = 879). The black candidates collectively received 95.8% (97.3%) of the votes cast by blacks, distributed as follows; Ms. Irvin, 39.5% (36.4%), Ms. Burton, 32.4% (28.6%), and Mr. Council, 23.9% (32.3%). Ms. Irvin, in turn, is estimated to have received only 8.02% (7.9%) of the votes cast by whites, Ms. Burton, 8.8% (8.6%), and Mr. Council 0.0% (2.4%). Blacks constituted 56.3% of the voters participating in this election, and their most preferred candidate, Ms. Irving, was placed in a runoff with Mr. Stoulig. In the runoff, 56.4% of the people voting were black. Ms. Irvin's vote .correlated at .984 with the racial composition of the precincts. She is estimated to have received 82.2% (88.0%) of the votes cast by blacks along with 11.9% (15.9%) of those cast by whites, which was sufficient to elect Ms. Irvin. School Board, Districts 3 and 7 District 7 of the Jefferson Parish School Board encompasses 26 precincts on both the East and West Banks of Jefferson Parish (See Map C). In the September, 1984 election, Herbert Wallace, Jr., a black, was a candidate for this seat on 7 the board along with two white candidates. Mr. Wallace's suppo'rt across the 26 precincts was correlated with the racial composition of the precinct electorates at .759. Blacks voting in this election are estimated to have cast a majority of their votes, 57.5% (61.9%) for Mr. Wallace. Whites, however, gave Mr. Wallace only 8.7% (10.8%) of their votes, and he therefore was defeated. A second school board seat, that for District 3, had been contested the previous year by Ellis Wilson, a black. District 3 encompasses 21 precincts on the West Bank east of District 7 (Map c). Six white candidates also sought the district 3 seat in the October, 1983 election. Mr. Wilson's vote correlated with the racial composition of the precinct at .995. He is estimated to have received only 3.2% (5.2%) of the ,votes cast by whites, but 84.2% (8.4.4%) of those cast by blacks. The white vote was severely divided across the six white candidates, resulting in Mr. w4lson placing first in this election, 95 votes ahead of the second place candidate, Robert A. .Autin. In the run-off election in November, Mr. Autin soundly defeated Mr. Wilson. The vote for Wilson again correlated strongly, .981, with the racial composition of the precincts. His share of the black votes increased to 93.5% (93.0%) in this election, while his share of the white vote is estimated to have been 18.5% (20.8%) 8 7th Justice Court Located between school board District 3 and 7 on the West Bank (and overlapping District 7 slightly ) is the geographical area for the 7th Justice court (see Map D). This is a recently created majority black district that encompasses 5 precincts. A special election to choose a Justice of the Peace and Constable in this district was held on April 4th of this year. At the time of this special election, 66.1% of the registered voters in the District was black. Mr. Hebert Wallace, a black, successfully sought the position of Constable, soundly defeating a single white opponent, Mr. Bryan Hymel. Mr. Wallace's vote correlated with the black percentage of registration in the precincts at .881. The turnout for this constable election, however, was very low, as only 25.8% of the registered voters cast a ballot. Turnout was especially low among whites. Only 11.9% (13.2%) of the white's registered -voters voted for a constable candidate, compared to 32.8% (35.4%) of the blacks. Given the small 'number of precincts and -low white turnout, precise estimates of the racial division in the vote must be interpreted with caution. Both regression and homogeneous precinct analy'ses provide similar estimates of Mr. Wallace's share of the black vote, 94.5% and 93.6% respectively, and there should be little doubt that he was the preferred candidate among black voters. Estimates of this share of the white vote differ substantially, however, from 0.0% (regression) to 31.8% (in the single white 9 homogeneous precinct). Even accepting the more generous estimate of 31.8%, Mr. Wallace can hardly be considered the choice of the white voters, especially in light of the fact that Mr. Hymel won substantial majorities (68.2% and 64.9%) in each of the majority white precincts. State House District 87 Thirteen precincts in the Marrero and Harvey area of the West Bank Representatives candidate for comprise District 87 of the Louisiana (see Map E). A black, Lloyd Lewis, this legislature seat along with five House of Sr. was a whites in October 22, 1983 election. The correlation between the racial composition of the election in these 13 precincts and the vote for Mr. Lewis was .998. He was the choice of over a majority of the blacks participating in this election, receiving 60.8% (60.0%) of their votes. White voters, however, gave him little support. He is estimated through regression to have received 0,0% of the votes cast by whites, and through homogeneous precincts, only 2.2%. The white vote was severely dispersed across the five white candidates however, which allowed Mr. Lewis to finish second (by 10 votes) and earned a position in a runoff election with N.J. Damico. In the runoff, the vote for Mr. Lewis again correlated strongly with the racial composition of the precincts, .998, and his support among black voters is estimated to have risen to 94.3% (93.9%). This was not sufficient to elect Mr. Lewis, however, as he received the votes of only 5.8% (7.7%) of the whites voting. 10 Gretna Located in the eastern end of the West Bank of Jefferson Parish is the City of Gretna (Map F) . Voting in Gretna was recently found to be racially polarized in Citizens for a Better Gretna V. City, of Gretna, Civ. No. 84-4901, (U.S.D.C., E.D. La. May 12, 1986). Since that litigation, blacks on two occasions have competed with white candidates for municipal office in Gretna. In the March 1985 election, Roy Wilson, a black, was a candidate for Chief of Police, along with two whites, Beauregard H. Miller, Jr. and Joseph F. Cerniglia. The vote for Mr. Wilson in this election correlated with the racial composition of the 13 precincts in Gretna at .974. He is estimated, through regression, to have received 64.7% of the votes cast by blacks (no black homogeneous precincts exist in Gretna on which to base a second estimate). His vote among whites is estimated to have been only 1.3% (3.2%), however, and he was, therefore, defeated. In April of this year, Gretna held an election for the seats on its city council, employing the new electoral arrangement adopted following the Citizens for a Better Gretna decision. A majority black district in that new arrangement, District 11 was contested only by black candidates. A second district, No. 3, was also contested by a black, Terry Videau, along with seven white'candidates. District 3 comprises only tow precincts (map G), neither of which is racially homogeneous, and therefore, no statistical coefficients will be reported for this election. 11 It can be noted, however, that as in other elections involving black 'candidates in Gretna, Mr. Videau's vote was correlated with the racial composition of the precincts, in that he received 16.7% of the votes in the precinct in which 27.3% of the registered voters was black, and 21.1% in the precinct in which blacks comprised 35.6% of the registered voters. Mr. Videau was able to finish second among this large field of candidates, and therefore competed in a runoff election in may. In the runoff, Mr. videau's vote was even more closely linked to the racial composAion of the precincts; he received 26.3% of the votes in the precinct in which voter registration was 28.0% black, and 31.6% of the votes in the precinct that was 35.9% black in registration. This close association between the vote for Videau and the presence of black registered voters, in light of the usual racial divisions in the support for black candidates in Gretna, suggests that Mr. Videau was the preferred candidate of the black voters in District 3. Other Black Candidates Black Voters in Jefferson Parish have not given their support to every black candidate in the Parish. On five occasions .since 1980,, the estimated divisions in the vote allow one to infer that the black candidate would have lost the election even if only the votes cast by blacks had been counted. Shirley Burton, for example, has twice been a candidate for the Louisiana House of Representatives from District 92 with the Parish, in 1983 and 1986. In the first attempt, she is estimated 12 • to have received 45.7% (41.3%) of the black vote and 15.9% (16.56) of the white. In the second, she received 46.1% (37.9%) and 3.8% (5.4%), respectively. In 1983, two blacks were candidates for the parish council. Mr. Leon T. Williams sought the councilman-at-large position for Districts 3 and 4, receiving 28.5% (31.4%) of the votes cost by blacks and 4.5% (4.7%) of those cost by whites, Mr. Robert Hamilton sought the District 2 seat, receiving an estimated 27.8% (27.1%) of the votes of black and 3.9% (4.6%) of those of whites. Finally, Sylvester Brown, a candidate for the District 1 seat on the parish school board in 1984, received an estimated 29.1% of the votes cast by blacks (there were no black homogeneous precincts in the district), and 0.5% .(0.9%) of those cast by whites. Black voters in Jefferson Parish have demonstrated, on numerous occasions since 1980, a preference for black candidates over white candidates. When this has happened, the preference for the black candidate has never been shared by the white voters. Only two of these black candidates (Mr. Irvin and Mr. Wallace) have been elected, each in a majority black electoral unit (District 1 in Kenner and the 7th Justice District, respectively). Among tbe others, three have progressed as far as a runoff election, only to then lose to a white candidate. Voting in Jefferson Parish is clearly racially polarized, to a degree that has usually precluded black voters from having an equal opportunity to elect the candidates of their choice. 13 1. See, Grofman, Migalski, and Nouiello, the °Totality of Ciraumstances Test° in Section 2 of the 1982 Extension of the Voting Rights Act: A Social Science Perspective, 7 LAW AND POLICY 119, 202 - 205 (cited in Thornburg V. Gingles,, 106 S.Ct. 2752, at 2768 (1986). This methodology is also explained in Grofman, An Outline for Racial Bloc Voting Analysis, Plaintiffs' Exhibit 12, at 1-5 1 Gingles V. Edmisten, 590 F.Supp. 345 (1984). 2. These estimates are also reported in tabular form in Appendices A and B, estimates reported in the are derived from weighted respectively. The regression-based text of this report and in Appendix A regressions that take into account the vast differences in.the relative size of precinct electorates. Estimates based on unweighted regressions, in which every precinct is treated as an equal unit regardless of the size of the vote within it, are reported in Appendix C. The conclusions expressed in this report are supported by the results of both the weighted and the unweighted analysis. 3. Th9 correlation coefficient can be interpreted as a measure of how well the data fit the which ecological regression is based. if r > .50, then the 'fit' should be assumption of linearity on Grofman has suggested that considered adequate. See 14 • Grofman, Migalski, and Noviello, supra. note f, at 206. John K. Wildgen has further noted that a correlation coefficient of .867, in the context of a voting analysis such as this, is 'remarkably good'. See Wildgen, A Political Problem of Public Education' in New Orleans, 8 LA. BUS. SURVEY, 5, 6n.3 (July, 1977). 4. The race of the people signing-in to vote has been recorded by the Registrar of Voters as either black or white. A small percentage of the registered voters however, (currently 0.5%) has been classified as "other". When relying on registration data to measure the racial composition of precincts, the percentage of registered voters who are black serves as the measure. This measure therefore, results, technically, in estimates of the voting behavior of blacks and non-blacks. Give that virtually all of the non-blacks are white (currently, 99.5%), the estimates for non-blacks will be reported in the text as estimates for whites. 15 • APPENDIX A Results of Weighted Regression Analyses Z of white Zof black . Black voters for black voters for black Correlation Election Year Candidate Candidate Candidate Coefficient Juvenile Court, Section A 1987 Council 3.1 80.8 .914 Kenner Council, At-Large 1987 Richardson 0.0 80.1 .988 Kenner Chief of Police 1986 Austin 14.7 49.1 .903 Kenner Coucil At-Large 1986 Cade 12.1* 42.6* .940 Kenner Council District 1 1982 Irvin 8.0 39.5 .963 Burton 8.8 32.4 .921 Council 0.0 23.9 .879 Kenner Council Dist. 1 Runoff 1982 Irvin 11.9 82.2 .984 School Board, District 7 1984 Wallace 8.7 57.5 .757 School Board, District 3 1983 _Wilson 3.2 84.2 .995 School Board, • Dist.3 Runoff 1983 Wilson 18.5 93.5 .981 Constable, 7th Jus.Dist., 1987 Wallace 0.0 94.5 .881 House Dist.87 1983 - Lewis 5.8 94.3 .998 House Dist.87 Runoff 1983 Lewis 5.8 94.3 .998 Gretna Chief of Police 1985 Wilson 1.3 64.7 .974 Figure R for the percentage of whites and blacks signing-in or election day, not the percentage voting in the election for the at-large seats. 16 • APPENDIX B Results of Homogeneous Precinct 2 of white 2 of black Black voters for black voters for black Election Year Candidate Candidate Candidate, Juvenile Court, Section A 1987 Council 4.5 74.9 Kenner Council, At-Large 1987 Richardson 4.0 80.9 Kenner Chief of Police 1986 Austin 15.3 50.1 Kenner Coucil At-Large 1986 Cade 13.0* 40.0* Kenner Council District 1 1982 Irvin 7.9 36.4 Burton 8.6 28.6 Council 2.4 32.3 Kenner Council Dist. 1 Runoff 1982 Irvin 15.9 88.0 School Board, District 7 1984 Wallace 10.8 61.9 School Board, District 3 1983 Wilson 5.2 84.4 School Board, • Dist.3 Runoff 1983 Wilson 20.8 93.0 Constable, 7th Jus.Dist. , 1987 Wallace 31.8 93.0 House Dist.87 1983 - Lewis 2.2 60.2 House Dist.87 Runoff 1983 Lewis 7.7 93.9 Gretna Chief of Police 1985 Wilson 3.2 NA Figure B for the percentage of whites and blacks signing-in or election day, not the percentage voting in the election for the at-large seats. 17 • APPENDIX C Election. Results of unweighted Regression Analyses .2 of white 2 of black Black voters for black voters for black Correlation Year Candidate Candidate Candidate Coefficient Juvenile Court, Section A 1987 Council Kenner Council, At-Large 1987 Richardson Kenner Chief of Police 1986 Austin Kenner Coucil At-Large 1986 Cade Kenner Council District 1 1982 Irvin Burton Council Kenner Council Dist. 1 Runoff 1982 Irvin School Board, District 7 1984 Wallace School Board, District 3 • 1983 Wilson School Board, Dist.3 Runoff 1983 Wilson Constable, 7th Jus.Dist. , 1987 Wallace House Dist.87 1983 Lewis House Dist.87 Runoff 1983 Lewis Gretna Chief of Police 1985 Wilson 3.1 0.0 14. 7 11.9* 10.0 9.1 77.2 .909 78,3 .988 48.4 .871 41.5* .917 38.5 .949 31.7 .937 0.0 24.5 .905 15.1 81.9 .979 8.4 55.3 .753 2.7 84.2 .994 18.4 .93.8 .975 0.8 92.7 .894 0.0 60.5 .998 5.9 94.5 .998 3.2 NA .981 Figure B for the percentage of whites and blacks signing-in or election day, not the percentage voting in the election for the at-large seats. 18 I. • MAP A CITY OF KENNER z • * • • JEFFERSON PARISH. LA. • • * WARD & PRECINCT MAP *Aft* ockammings Pea CasC 1 1110.0.0.6All • 1111,•••• 0/0.1.118.1 IMAMS •;,•. - • 4ttrf4r. • • vvvvvvv •••,.• 1.1•••4•• ..•1 emboaft. to .11.11* SIM ONO ••••Mlo 111.MM• • MAP B DISTRICT 1 CITY OF KENNER tilts:01 .4 %1 Pi rilikitiV7:°1/4)6-.1(111111111111111s1 Iril 11 ' lill*Ifiliiii 111121111111111111111k ;la 11 it" CI i ? Illaimmit\IRPA It 111111111111=rmila 1M - Ill II rt11111111121-A m 1111111111111 N uniniattga4mt i iirit4' %., Um* mitiumwtutif ..41114=1 % lizokre Rita; i , ittremetura ii „Ty II tt r.r.orr.-4103 110-.0-iiiiimilyii litioniinEumt oic ogotiffitimill Intrittlinnaitif ° Frrilgra 1 iiiii I li 711; 111:11.41:111:11:111 ritilit:1111111 1 ...a,....0.0 mmeroshild ill 1-41 111111 O si ......fibt :amp trant110111:17111411171 mini- --4 ----imPimedatv , .z.• MAP 0 .7thJUSTICE DISTRICT • • MAP E DISTRICT 87 •LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ;•/.q \,\ I. * * * JEFFERSON PARISH . LA.* * * WARD IL PRECINCT MAP •Aso • Olive OCVMDAPIIII • 0 ONO • • •••••••• • • 'no. 41•1•11.1%. •■•••••••• MAIM. ol • • • •••• ••• • • • • 11 • 01.1.01.11. O.. Owe NM OF .11.1/10 MAP F CITY OF GRETNA S MAP G CITY OF GRETNA • 1:‘