Memo from Berrien to Hodgkiss with Affidavit of David Peterson and Correspondence from Pendley to Judge Boyle (Redacted)
Correspondence
March 30, 1998
13 pages
Cite this item
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Case Files, Cromartie Hardbacks. Memo from Berrien to Hodgkiss with Affidavit of David Peterson and Correspondence from Pendley to Judge Boyle (Redacted), 1998. 0ee7f77a-f93b-f011-b4cb-7c1e5267c7b6. LDF Archives, Thurgood Marshall Institute. https://ldfrecollection.org/archives/archives-search/archives-item/f58e1c3a-7632-4b50-b462-8881d6722add/memo-from-berrien-to-hodgkiss-with-affidavit-of-david-peterson-and-correspondence-from-pendley-to-judge-boyle-redacted. Accessed December 06, 2025.
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MAR~30-98 02:0SPM FROM-FERGUSON,ST, WALLAS,ADKINS,GRESHAM&SUM +7043345654 T-298 P.01/13 F-876
FERGUSON, STEIN, WALLAS, ADKINS, GRESHAM &
SUMTER
FACSIMILE TRANSMITTAL SHEET
TO F~OM.
Jackie Bemen Aruta Hodgkiss
o,.:tE.·
03/30/98
FAXl'JUMUJl TOT."1. NO OP P.11.CE!S INCLUDING COV.6~.
212-226-7592 13
1-'l-luNf. NUMB.ER SENDl!R:S R.EnRE..NCS NUMBE:Jl
212-219-1900
YOUR 11.EPE!I.E!oCS NU.MBE!Jl.
Cromarnev.Hunt
0 URGENT O POR. kEVI.EW O PL.f::ASE COMMENT O PLEASE R.EPL 't 0 PLE.11.SE R.ECYCL.E.
HOTES/COMMI:.NT:i·
I am sending you two things: a letter that Nate Pendley, anomey for Jack Daly, sent
to the Cromaroe Panel on Friday; and a copy of David Peterson's affidavit in its final form.
I tlunk you may have seen a draft of the Peterson affidavit. This affidaVlt 1s the state's
e'17idencc:' on the parosan plac~ent of voters m districts, to coum<:r Weber. The State:' does
not want ro bnng any witnesses to the hearing. Unforrunately, I don't think there ~ much
we can do about that. If you have any ideas about how we should respond to Pendley's
lener, please let me know.
7'11 t<:.E.NILWORTH .t.Vc., STE. )00
C H.'I.R.L.OTTE. N . C . :!11201'
+7043345654 PAGE.01
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UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
EASTERl"l DISTRICT OF NORTH CAROLINA
Eastern Division
Civil Action No. 04-CV-104-B0(3)
MARTIN CROMARTIE, et al.
AFFlDA VIT OF DAVID W. PETERSON, PHO
V.
JAfJIES B. HUNT, JR. in his
capacity as Governor, et al.
DAVID W. PETERSON, PHO, being duly sworn, deposes and declares the following:
Identity
1. I am president of PRI ASsociares, Incorporated, a company whose chief activity is
providing statistical litigation suppon. I am also recently retired as Adjunct Professor in the
Institute of Sraristics and Decision Sciences at Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, where for
more than twenty years I raught courses in the theory and application of statistics. l am co-author of
a book entitled Use of Srarisrics in Equal £mploymeru Opponunity Lirigarion, the gueSt editor of a
special issue of the journal Law and Conremporar; Problems devoted to statistical inference in
litigation, and the coomoutor of a chapter to each of two otha books on the use of statistics in
litigation. I have testified as an ~pc!rt statistical witness in more than thirty cases in fed<:ral district
couns around the nation, including the Eastern District of North Carolina, and worktd with legal
teams as a statistical expc:rt in more than two hundred different cases. I have testified for and
advised defendantS as well as plaintiffs.
Assignment
2. I am retained in this matter by the defendant to examine the statistical relationship
between the boundary of North Carolina's Twelfth Congressional District as created by the North
Carolina General ASsembly on March 31. 1997 and the racial and political makeup of the
residents in that District and the surrounding area. In particular, I am asked to determine the
extent to which political affiliation might ex:plain as well as. or bener than, race the boundary of
District Twelve. Most panicularly, I am asked to detennine whether, based on the statistical
panem of association relating the boundary of the Twelfth District and the racial and political
makeup of nearby residents, race appears to have been the predominant factor in defining that
boundary.
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Conclusions
3. Based on an examination of the data available to me, I conclude that
a. There is a substantial correlation between the path taken by the boundary of the
Twelfth district and the political preferences of the res1dentS of the precinctS touching that
boundary, the tendency being to include precinctS v.ithin the District which have relatively high
Democratic parcy representation.
b. There is also a substantial correlation between the path taken by the boundary of the
Twelfth District and the racial composition of the residents of the precincts touching that
boundary, the tendency being to include precincts within the District which have relatively high
black representation.
c. Because the correlation found in a. is as large or larger than that found in b., it follows
that the path taken by the boundary of the Twelfth District can be attributed to political
considerations with at least as much statistical cenainty as it can be aruibuted to racial
considerations. In other words, there is no statistical indication that race was the predominant
factor determining the border of the Twelfth District~ there is at least one other explanation that
fies the data as well as or bener than race, and that explanation is political identification.
d. There is a substantial correlation, precinct by precinct, between the fraction of a
precinct's residents who are black and the fraction who favor the Democratic political party over
the Republican.
e. Among the few border precinctS where the above correlation does not exist, the
boundary of the Twelfth District appears to have been drawn at least as much with the purpose of
creating a Democratic majority within the District as with creating a black majority.
f. I also determined that blacks constirute less than half of the residents of District
Twelve, and that people who identify more sn-ongly with the Democratic Party than the
Republican Party constitute more than half the residentS of that Disu-ict. This lends furcher
credence to conclusions c. and e., above.
Underlying Data
4. The information on which my conclusions rest consists primarily of the computerized
data base used by the North Carolina Legislature to draw the boundaries of districts under
challenge in this lawsuit. This file permitted me to determine, precinct by precinct,
a. the number of residents therein by racial category, according to the 1990 US census,
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b. the number of voting age residents therein by racial category, according to the 1990
US census,
c. the number of registered voters therein, by racial category, according to local voter
registration records,
d. the number of people who voted for each major candidate in the 1988 Coun of
Appeals election,
e. the number of people who voted for each major candidate in the 1988 Lieutenant
Governor election,
f. the number of people who voted for each major candidate in the 1990 Helms - Gantt
US Senatorial election. and
g. the number of registered voters by political affiliation.
1
I also relied on numerous maps of North Carolina supplied to me by the State, showing the
boundaries of the DistrictS and the identities of the precincrs bordering them.
Analysis: Correlation of Race with Party Affiliation
5 Using the data file described above, I calculated for each of the North Carolina
precincts the following seven percentages:
a. the percentage of the resident population who are black,"l
b. the percentage of the voting age population who are black,
c. the percentage of the registered voters who are black,
d. the percentage of the voters who voted for the Democratic candidate in the 1988 Court
of Appeals election,
e. the percentage of the voters who voted for the Democratic candidate in the 1988
Lieutenant Governor election.
f. the percentage of the voters who voted for the Democratic candidate in the 1990 Helms
- Gantt US Senate election, and
1 In 69 of the State's 100 counties, these counts can be inferred for each precinct within
the county. For the remaining 31 counties. precinct level information is not available so we used
Minor Civil Divisions instead. Of the nine counties touching or included in the Twelfth District,
only Davie County is among the 31 counties not having precinct level information.
2 Nearly all of the racial minority people living in the vicinity of the Twelfth District are
black. I have repeated all of the analyses described in this affidavit using all minorities in lieu of
blacks, and the results are identical in all material respectS.
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g. the percentage of the voters who are registered as Democrats.3
6. I then plotted each of the State's 2217 precinctS on a graph, based on its registered
voter black percentage (Sc above) and its registered voter Democratic percentage (Sg above).
The result is Chart 1. This chan, which looks like an inverted tornado, displays a strong
correlation between racial composition and party preference. It shows that in precincts with high
black representation, there is a correspondingly high tendency for voters to favor the Democratic
Party In precincts with low black representation, there is much more variation in pany
preference, and the fraction of registered voters favonng Democrats is substantially lower.
7. Virrually the same picture emerges when one includes in Chart 1 just the six counties
through which District Twelve runs; and the picture is again much the same when one includes
just the nine counties touched by the Twelfth District.'' This collection of chans is the basis for
my conclusion that there is a substantial correlation between the black representation within a
precinct and the proportion of itS residents who favor the Democratic Pa.rcy
Analysis: Correlation of Boundary with luce and Political Party
8. The basic geographic unit used by the legislature in constructing districts is the
precinct. (There are some instances in which county boundaries are used, but even these are also
precinct boundaries.) To examine the correlation of the Twelfth District boundary with the race
of people living along its path, I identified each of the precinctS that touch the boundary, and
divided the boundary into segments each of which separates one precinct inside the District from
the one just outside. There are 234 such segments, each of which reflectS a decision made by the
legislature about the path taken by the Twelfth District border.~ For each segment, 1 then
determined whether the representation of blacks is greater in the inside precinct than it is in the
outside precinct, using each of the three measures Sa, Sb and Sc.
9. If, for each segment, the representation of blacks were greater in the inside precinct
than the outSide precincr, then the correlation betWeen the path taken by the border and the racial
makeup of the precinctS around which it travels would be perfect. On the other hand, were only
3 In calculating each of these four party affiliation percentages, I included only people
who were identified with one of the two major parties. Hence, a precinct that by one of these
measures is "'42% Democratic," it is in the same sense '"58% Republican."
4 I have created analogous chans using the other measures of racial composition and
party affiliation defined in paragraph 5, and they too do not differ materially from Chart 1.
s Among the border precincts, three have no registered voters. These precinctS touch
five boundary segments, which are necessarily excluded from correlation calculations based on
measures Sc through Sg.
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half of the segmenrs of this type, there would be no correlation at all between the path taken by
the border and the racial composition of the precinCtS it separaies.
6
The aCtUal results fall about
halfway between these em-emes, as follows:
Black Population (Sa)
Black Voting Age Population (Sb)
Black Registered Voters (Sc)
79.1%
79.9%
79.5%
10. It is e'1ident from these figures that there is some positive correlation between the
path taken by the border of the Twelfth District and the racial composition of the local residents.
It is also clear that the correlation is not perfect.
11. Similarly, I noted for each of the 234 segments constituting the border of the Twelfth
District whether the representation of Democrats was greater in the inside precinct than in the
·outside precinet. If 100% of the segments had this propeny, the border would correlate perfectly
with pany preference. while if only half bad the property, there would be no correlation at all.
The acrual results, for each of the four pany preference measures, are midway between these
exrremes, as follows:
1988 Court of Appeals Election (Sd)
l 988 Lt Governor Election (Se)
1990 Helms ~ Gann Election {Sf)
80.8%
78.6%
808%
84.3%
Registered Voters ( 5 g)
12. Evidently, there is some positive correlation between the path taken by the border of
the Twelfth District and the party preferences of the local residents, though the correlation is not
perfect.
13. Comparing the numerical results from paragraphs 9 and 11 above, it is apparent that
there is at least as much correlation between the border of the Twelfth District and the party
preferences of the local residents as there is betWeen the border and the racial composition of
those residents. That is, the statistical evidence supporting party affiliation as an important
detenninant of the boundary is at least as strong, and marginally stronger, than the statistical
evidence supporting race as an important determinant of the boundary of the Twelfth District.
6
If none (0%) of the segments had this property, there would once again be perfect
correlation betWeen the boundary line and the racial makeup along its path, but in the sense that
the boundary tends to e,cclude blacks from the Twelfth District.
MAR:30-99 02:lOPM FROM-FERGUSON,ST. WALLAS,ADKINS,GRESHAM&SUM +7043345654 - T-298 P.07/13 F-976
Analysis: Divergent Boundary Segments
14. As might be expected from the correlation (paragraphs 6 and 7 above) between party
affiliation and racial composition within precinCtS, there are many District Twelve border
segments in which not only is the represemation of blacks higher in the inside precinct than in the
outside, so too is the representation of people favoring the Democratic Pany. Such segments
(which I call ·•convergent") support equally the proposition that
a. the motivation for the District Twelve boundary was at least in pan to maximize black
representation within the District (the "Race Hypothesis''),
and the proposition that
b. the motivation was at least in pan the maximization of Democratic Party affiliation
(the .. Political Hypothesis").
Clearly, convergent segments do not help us determine which of these two propositions is more
likely.
15. There is a second type of convergent segment, namely a border segment for which the
representation of blacks is greater in the outside precinct than in the inside and for which the
representation of Democrats is also greater outside than inside. For the same reason noted above,
th.is type of convergent segment also tells us nothing about which of the two aforementioned
propositions is the more likely.
16. Only the boundary segments which are divergent, i.e .. those for which
a. the representation of blacks on the inside is greater than that on the outside and for
which the representation of Democrats is greater on the outside than on the inside
(""Type R" boundary segments),
or, alternatively, for which
b . the representation of blacks on the outside is greater and the representation of
Democrats on the inside is greater ("Type P" boundary segments),
can indicate which of the above two propositions is more likely.
17. Evidently, a Type R divergent boundary segment favors the Race Hypothesis over the
Political Hypothesis, while a Type P segment favors the Political Hypothesis over the Race
Hypothesis.
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18 Depending on the measures used to determine racial representation and Democratic
parcy preference., a gi'llen boundary segment may or may not be divergent. I have examined all
possible combinations of the three racial measures (Sa, Sb and Sc) and the four parcy preference
measures (5d, 5e, Sf and 5g). resulnng in twelve different ways to determine whether a boundary
segment is divergent.
For example, using the tw0 measure$ (Sc and 5g) based on registered voters, there
are 41 divergent boundary segments. Ofrhese, 26 are of Type P. namely ones for
which the representation of blacks is greater on the outside than on the inside, yet
the representation of Democrats is greater on the inside than on the outside. The
remaining 15 divergent segments are of Type R: the representation of blacks is
greater on the inside than on the outside, yet the representation of Democrats is
greater on the outside. Evidently, the balance here tips in favor of the Political
Hypothesis by a score of 26 divergent segments to 15: it is more likely that of the
two propositions, party affiliation was the driving force rather than race.
19. Of the total of twelve such analyses,
a. seven result in a pattern of divergent boundary segments favoring the Political
Hypothesis over the Race Hypothesis, in the sense just described,
b. three result in a pattern favoring the Race Hypothesis over the Political Hypothesis,
and
c. two result in a pattern equally strong in support of both hypotheses.
It is clear from these analyses that the statistical suppon for the Political Hypothesis is at least as
strong as that for the Race Hypothesis, and, indeed, somewhat monger.
20. As indicated above, some boundary segments are divergent when judged by one pair
of measures of race and party preference, but not divergent when judged by another. There are,
however, ten boundary segments that are divergent by every one of the twelve combinations of
race and party affiliation measures. Of these ten unequivocally divergent boundary segments,
a. six support the Political Hypothesis, while
b. four support the Race Hypothesis.
Again, the statistical suppon for the Political Hypothesis is at least as strong as that for the Race
Hypothesis, and indeed, slightly stronger.
IMR~30-98 02:llPM FROM-FERGUSON,ST. WALLAS,ADKINS,GRESHAM&SUM +7043345654 T-298 P.09/13 F-876
21 . Finally, the representation of blacks in the Twelfth District by each of the three
measures used herein is:
Black Population (Sa) 47%
Black Voting Age Population (Sb) 43%
Black Registered Voters (Sc) 46%
By none of these measures do blacks constitute a majority of the people in the Twelfth District.
Similarly, the representation of Democrats in the Twelfth District by each of the four measures
used herein is:
1988 Court of Appeals Election (Sd) 62%
1988 Lt Governor Election (Se) 62%
1990 Helms - Gantt Election (Sf) 66%
Registered Voters (Sg) 75%
By every one of these measures, DemocratS coostirute a majority of the people in the Twelfth
District. These figures support the proposition that creation of a Democratic majority in District
Twelve was a more important consideration in its construction than was the creation of a black
majority.
Funher the Affiant Saith Naught. ;£d,l.JJ)/l1JJ?W-
\ David W. Peterson, PhD
Subscribed and sworn ta before me this 2.? !! day of rfiQ,-:t,.,,:t.-z., , 1998.
4- tf<_ £/.d4-ll My Commission Expires:/_ 1 ?- ;i..., o L •
Notary Public
+7043345654 PAGE.09
MAR'-30-98 02:llPM FROM-FERGUSON,STEIN,WALLAS,ADKINS,GRESHAM&SUM +7043345654
-cnart ,. Precinct ay Precinct Plot Gf lil&lack ~- ~ oa■orrati~
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T-298 P.10/13 F-876
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MAR 30 '98 14=27 +7043345654 PAGE.10
NaJhanael K. Paidley
The Pendley Law Offices
Post Office Box 30070
Winston•Salem, North Carolina
27U0•0070
Phone/Fa~; ('10) 712-<lOOO
27 March 1 eaa
T-298 P.11/13 F-876
Por Sr,e,r D,Hwl):
SHt Prye Brld10 Jlaad
Clamons, Nortk Cal"oltn1
27012-9'05
VIA FAX TO: (91&) 338-2471
Hon. Tarranc• w. Boyte
P.O. Bo>e429
---- - -·
Ellzabeth City, North Carolina 27907-0429
Ra: Plbt, ft 11, Y, Lgake, II 1t
U.$.0.C., East. Diet, N.C . .
No. I: 97-CV-710.80(3)
Deer Judge Boyle:
The action referenced above (brought before a dlttrlct court of three
Judges) entails a challenge to North Carollna'e currant federal congress1Qnat, state HoL.lDfJ
of Representatives, and atete Senate leglstatlve districts. The complaint we filed or1glnally
in this case nearly two years ago requested an end to an further election11 h•ld under
each of theae legislative dietrioting plans, on the ground that eaeh Is the product of
unconstitutional racial discrimination. Wa ranew8ci that request formally nearly two
weeks ago with a Motion for a Temporary Aattraining Order and a Motion fat Prellmlnary
Injunction accompanied by about 2,000 pages of documentation, about eo maps, and
a Memorandum of Law in ■upport thereof.
On Wedn•day l appeared before the Joint Republican Caucus of the
General Assembly at ita invitation to share my perspective about the case and to answer
_ any quostions or concema that might be voiced. Although there ts a Wide rang• ot
opinion among the caucus as to what ahould be done with this lltlgat10n1 one opinion
shared by evaryona thsre was that I ought to beg the coun"• Indulgence In e,cptdttlng
a oon&>ld«atlon of our motion& for In1unct1vv relief.
It ••ams the caucua membera have all read the media repona about th1a
eaae wherein varlaus leglaJators (Democrat and Republican) and a vartety of
11
expart.a
11
voice their opinion that 'the chall■naed districts ars cle&r1y unoona\itutional and that it Is
•juet a matter ot time before the Qoun strikee them down." Slnoo this ha& baoome the
received wisdom, they are (underatandably) apprehensive about how they oYght to
proceed at this point, with many of them holding off on spending fund$ In &uppori of
their variouG candidacies until they find out whtlt thelr new districts (If any) will look like,
and who their new opp0nents (If anY) wlll be.
MAR 30 '98 14=27 +7043345654 PAGE.11
' MA~-30-98 02:12PM FROM-FERGUSON,ST~ WALLAS,ADKINS,GRESHAM&SUM +7043345654
,.. l<Lr1 : 1 he t-'encl 1 e~ Law Off 1 oea • PH(],IE NO. : 910 "712 0000
T-298 P. 12/13 F-876
- Ma.r. 27 1998 06:39F'M P::-<
I candidly tQld them that I had easentlalfy no control over !he schadulJn;
proceas at thls point, but wu nevertheles~ coerced into promising that I would risk the,
court'& wrath by sharing witt\ you their desire to see the hearing ~pedlted. 1 e>epfained
that there are now three very Important Judicial schadulaa that must be accommodated
&Ince the ca•• WIii ultimately be decided by a court of three Judges, and I believe they
understand the diffioultles Involved In that 11ehedullng procees.
They were moat ln1l1tent, now1Wer, that I remind the court of two things,
even though I assured them you w.re more conscious of them than they ware: (1) that
federal &tatutory law raqulras lhta court to give thia caso prtortty until the pending motions
are resolved (2S u.s.c. S,ction 1867; "lT]he court shall expedite the consideration of .
. . any action fQr temporary or preliminary ln]uncttva relief .. , "), and, (2) that although only
the full three Judge court can Issue the preliminary lnJunctlon, 28 U.S.C. Bectlon
Ul4(b) (3) c.10ee glve you EIS a single Judga the authority to teaue tha Temporary
Reeiralnlng Order to preserve the atatus quo until tnese very Important Issues can be
• r1aolved by m, full court
With reapect to our claims against th• federal congresalonal dlatrlcta, I am
aware that you have scheduled a hearing In the very similar Qramartla y. Hunt c••• flied
by Robinson Everett In Greenvllla. Which was transferred to th• Ftaleigh division after
Judge Wilkinson decided that that case 1hould ahare the Mme three Judge oourt that he
had already aaalgned to our case ever a year eartler. I understand that that hearing is
set for next Tue1day In Morganton at .2:00 pm. I Intend to be present at that hearing,
and W11h the perml111on of the QQurt would· llke to be abl• to preaant arg1.4ment and
perhaps limited tltittmony eo aa to avoid the necaselty of yo"'r having to schedule an
addltlonal hearing for our ptaintlffl, and also to elimlnate the risk of inconsistent rulingt.
Pleaae consider thl& cormpandence as a request that you agree to hear our motions
(with respect to th& congrtlllalonal districts on\Y) at the sam• time as you re90lve those
Pre9ented by the QromacUI plaintiffs.
We have Informed Judge Evarutt of our Intention to make thle ri'qu&st, and
ho upress&Cf no Obleotlgn. We have not asked the etata defendants for their position
on thit request for tl"le simple reason ihat they are already -on tna record supporting a
conaolidated hearing cf these two caa•, having formally requested that the court
coneolldate them lut Ootober. That motion was dtmled because the at.ate sought
conaolldatlon with a cue thal waa already closed (the Old bw Y. Hunt littgatlon), but
oertatnly there are obvlO\Jt reasons of judielal economy arguing for a Joint hearing of
thete two nearly Identical clalms, as the ataie then correctly pointed out. The only
reason one could Imagine for the state to change Its position on the isaue now wauld be
If Its ortglnal motlan had been a mere ruse - a crass, transparint effort at juc:tga
&hopping, · wnich of courso is •omsthlng to which we alt know thtt Attomey General's
office would never stoop.
Since the QtpmartJ@ case Is b•lng defended by the &ame attorneys, and on
\he eam• clalma, and heard bv the ■ame three judgea aa our federal congrfileslonel
claim, thore can be no serious argument that the 8t&te defendants would be prejudiced
by our participatlon in the hearing. And of oourse even If tha atate ware to oppose our
2
T-298 P. 13/13 F-876
• •••.. c-1 ..,.,,,..l\.,j ...., • ..a:tr · 1·1 _r..,.
participation, this court ha, the Inherent authority 10 shorten the period tar l'lOt;as requtr11d
for auch a hearing for any reason deemed by the court to merit such an order, whle;h
cleariy thase circumstances provide. The DulY v. l:Mkp oas&1 of cour8e, has actually
been pending longer.
Although we have the utmost oonfldence In Judge Everett, with whom we
have actually stayed In fairly crose contact tor soma time now. we do feal that our direct
panlolpatfcn is necasaary to bring a full rang• cf perspectlvea to the determination of
theae claims. Our more panisan RepL1bllcan pt.,ntlffS1 for example, are eomewhat
dubious that Ju~ge Everett, a prominent Democrat, has either tha capaoi'tY or tne
Inclination fairly to reflect their concems. Ctrtelnly whh our plaintiffs ae!ded to the mix
the court will not be accu•~ of having failed to hear from Republlcan corners. Altnough
the Daly plaintiffs include Republlcana, Oamocrats. and lAnafflllated voters, and both
blacks and Wt'\ltes, they do Include numerous Aep"'bflean party leaders. lncludlng three
people who 01.1rrent1y serve as Chairman or thQ Republlcan Pa"Y for their reapDCtlve
countJes. They reflect an Important perspeotl\/e the CQun neac:ts to hear.
I stand ready to aaatst the court In any way I can In expediting consideration
of all three of cur clalms, and hope the day ia coming soon when I wlll be able to
announce the court's deciaian, WhattWar that may be.
cc: Eddie Speu (Defense Counaal)
Judge Sam J. lrvln Ill (Via fax to (704) 438·904-1)
Judge Rlch1ud L. Vorhees (via fax to Judge Mullen's chamt,Gr& @ (704) 360-7456)
3
MAR 30 '98 14=28 +7043345654 PAGE.13