Deposition of Mark Davidson
Public Court Documents
August 22, 1989
96 pages
Cite this item
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Case Files, LULAC and Houston Lawyers Association v. Attorney General of Texas Hardbacks, Briefs, and Trial Transcript. Deposition of Mark Davidson, 1989. 0bbcfa06-1d7c-f011-b4cc-7c1e52467ee8. LDF Archives, Thurgood Marshall Institute. https://ldfrecollection.org/archives/archives-search/archives-item/f9229a37-1d03-4d5b-9d8b-70a0110a9cde/deposition-of-mark-davidson. Accessed November 06, 2025.
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TBA No.
IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS
MIDLAND-ODESSA DIVISION
LEAGUE OF UNITED LATIN AMERICAN
CITIZENS (LULAC), et al,
Plaintiffs,
HOUSTON LAWYERS!" ASSOCIATION,
ALICE BONNER, WELDON BERRY,
FRANCIS WILLIAMS, REV. WILLIAM
LAWSON, DELOYD T. PARKER,
BENNIE MCGINTY, NO. MO-88-CA-154
Plaintiff-Intervenors,
VS.
JAMES MATTOX, Attorney General
of the State of Texas, et al,
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Defendants.
DEPOSITION OF:
HON. MARK DAVIDSON
August 22, 1989
he REpoR TE
INC.
MS-1047 eo P.O. Box 58170 e Houston, Texas 77258 e (713)280-0015
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A.P .P E'A RAN CF 5S
ATTORNEY FOR PLAINTIFF-INTERVENORS:
SHERRILYN A. IFILL
NAACP Legal Defense &
Educational Fund, Inc.
99 Hudson Street, l6th Floor
New York, New York 10013
ATTORNEY FOR PLAINTIFFS:
SUSAN FINKELSTEIN
Texas Rural Legal Aid, Inc.
201 N.. St. Mary's, Suite 521
San Antonio, Texas 78205
ATTORNEY FOR DEFENDANTS:
J. Eugene Clements
Porter & Clements
700 Louisiana Avenue, Suite 3500
Houston, Texas 77002-2730
The oral deposition of Hon. Mark Davidson
was taken by Plaintiff-Intervenors before me,
Cheryl L. Pierce a Certified Shorthand Reporter
in ‘the "State of Texas, in the law offices of
Porter & Clements, 700 Louisiana Avenue, Suite
3500, Houston, Texas, between the hours of 2:15
p.m. and 4:15 p.mn., On -aAugust .22, 1989, pursuant
to Notice and Stipulation of Counsel.
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IT IS STIPULATED AND AGREED by and
between Counsel for the respective parties hereto
that the deposition of the witness named in the
caption hereto may be taken at this time and
place before the officer named in the caption
hereto; that the said deposition, or any part
hereof, when so taken, may be used on the trial
of this case with the same force and effect as 1if
the witness were present in court and testifying
in person;
THAT the necessity for preserving
objections at the time of taking is waived,
and that any and all legal objections to this
deposition, or any part thereof, may be urged at
the time same is sought to be offered in evidence
on the trial of this cause; except, however, that
objections to the form of the questions and/or
responsiveness of the answers must be made at
the "time of taking, or else such objections are
waived;
THAT the original of this deposition
shall be presented to the attorney for the
Defendants, who shall: in turn submit it to’ the
witness for his examination and signing, and
thereafter, said attorney for the Defendants
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1 shall return same to the officer taking this
2 deposition;
3 THAT if the signed original is not
4 presented to the attorney for the
5 Plaintiff-Invervenors prior to the time of trial,
6 a copy may be used in lieu thereof.
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HON. MARK DAVIDSON
was called as a witness by the Plaintiff-
Intervenors and, being first duly sworn,
testified as follows:
DIRECT EXAMINATION
QUESTIONS BY MS. IFILL:
Qe Okay. Judge Davidson, as you know, my
name is Sherrilyn Ifill. I'm an attorney for the
Plaintiff-Intervenors in this case, the Houston
Lawyers' Association, as well as five individual
Plaintiffs; and we are taking this deposition on
notice, although you were not subpoenaed and
you're here voluntarily. And it's my
understanding that you will be serving as an
expert witness for the Defendant-Intervenor
Sharolyn Wood in this case; is that correct?
A. That 1s correct.
Q. Okay.
MS. IFILL: Did we want to make a
disclaimer now?
MR. CLEMENTS: Let me make a note
for the record that while Judge Davidson 1s the
duly elected Judge of the 11th District Court of
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Harris County, Texas, he is not appearing here in
any judicial capacity but solely in his capacity
as an expert in the field of judicial elections
and politics in Harris County, Texas and as an
individual designated as an expert and fact
witness by Defendant-Intervenor, Honorable
Sharolyn Wood, Judge of the 127th District Court
of Harris County, TexasS.
Q. (By Ms... Ifill) Judge Davidson, you
brought with you some documents today. Were
those documents brought pursuant to a request
that was attached to your Notice of Deposition?
A. It was -- they were.
Q. And do these documents represent your
complete response to that request for documents?
A. That is all the documents I have in my
possession that I was able to find after a very
diligent search. There may well be some others,
but - that was all 7 was able to find after a
diligent search.
Q. Okay. Why don't you start by telling us
a little bit about yourself, where you're
currently employed and what your professional
background is?
A. I'm currently employed as a county
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employee. I'm the Judge of the llth State
Pistrict Court in Houston, Texas. The 11th,
notwithstanding its number, is the oldest
district court iin the State of Texas.
I graduated from high school in Houston,
got a degree in government or political science
from the University of Texas at Austin with a
strong concentration in mathematics. I went into
my last semester in college with enough hours --
one course short of enough hours, 1 think, to get
a degree in either math or political science and
chose to go into political science.
Starting ‘in 1972, T'vworked for ‘the state
legislature, and I worked up in the legislature
through 1982.
oe And for whom did you work in the state
legislature?
A. Various entities. Por the most part, I
worked for, first, a state representative and
then a state senator by the name of Jack Ogg,
O-g-g, who represented the inner city and near
west side, Harris, County during the period from
1973 "until 1983. At various times I worked for
various committees that he was the chairman of.
Q. Can you name some of those committees?
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A. The Texas Senate Election Subcommittee
and the Committee on Redistricting in the 1981
legislative session. In. 19 --."I'm a graduate Of
the University of Houston Law School. That's my
educational background. I also attended, however,
the University of Texas Law School. I neglected
to mention that. When the legislature went into
session, I would generally transfer up to UT and
take a few courses there,
MS. IPILL: Can we go off the
record a second?
(WHEREUPON, there was a discussion
held off the record.)
MSs. IFILL: Okay. Let's go back on
the record.
Qs (By Ms. Ifill) Judge Davidson, do you
currently reside in Harris County?
A. Yes.
OQ. And how long have you lived in Harris
County?
A. Excepting the times that I attended
college in Austin or may have moved up to Austin
temporarily, since I was two or three years old.
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1 Q. You're currently a District Judge in the
i 2 11th Judicial District?
3 A. Correct,
i 4 OQ How did you become a District Judge?
} 5 A. I filed and. I ran and: 1 won.
6 Q. And what year was that?
i 7 A. In 1988.
| 8 QO. And. was. that the first time ‘you ran for
9 public office in Harris County?
i 10 A. Correct.
i 11 QO. And you ran and you won. You. ran as "a
12 Republican or a Democrat?
» 13 A. 1. xan as a "Republican.
i 14 Q. How many years have you been a
15 Republican?
! 16 A. We don't have party registration in
] 17 Texas so I don't know how to answer that question.
18 There's no such thing as a registered Republic or
i 19 Democrat in Texas as I understand it.
i 20 OO How do you vote in the primary then?
2.1 A. You make a decision when you go vote in
1 22 the primary --
1 2.3 Q. Oh, you can decide that morning?
24 A. Yes, Or literally as you walk into the
25 polls.
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Qe. So when did you decide to be a
Republican?
A. The first Republican primary 1 voted in
was in 1988.
Oo And prior*“to that, had you been a
Democrat or an independent, or did you have any
party affiliation?
A. I had been a Democrat.
Q. Okay. When you ran for election in 1988,
were you opposed in the primary?
A. 1 was.
Q. And who was your opponent?
A. Boone Vastine. First name is B-o-o-n-e;
last name is V-a-s-t-i-n-e.
Q. And is Mr. Vastine a white candidate?
A. Yes.
Qe And who was your opponent in the '88
general election?
A. Kathleen S. Stone.
Q. And is Ms. Stone white? Was she a white
candidate?
A. She 1s a white -- she is Caucasian.
Q. Okay. Thank you for correcting me. I
don't know what happened there. In the course oF
running for election in Harris County, did you
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campaign «at. all in the county?
A. Oh, yes.
Q. And how did you campaign in general?
A. Wherever I could find a few people that
were willing to listen to me, time permitting, I
campaigned. I spoke at Rotary Clubs, Optimist
Clubs. You know, I just went out every night to
any civic group.or party group or any: other group
that was willing to listen to judicial candidates
talk: ‘and. there aren't a lot of them that are
Willing to:listen to judicial ‘candidates,
Q. Why d0 you think that 1s?
A. Most people that go to public forums are
interested in listening to issue oriented
speeches; and by virtue of the candidates of
judicial ethics, there can be relatively few
issues in a judicial race.
Q. You were running for a ¢ivil court; is
that correct?
A. Phat's correct.
Oe Do you think that there are more issues
in a criminal judicial race, for instance, as
opposed t0 a civil race, you know, like law and
order issues, quote, unquote?
A. Not ethically.
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QO. Not. ethically, but in reality, do you
think that those are more issue-oriented
elections?
A. No .
Q. No?
A. In my observation there have been a
couple of people that have tried or a few people
that have tried.
Q. What's the filing fee to run for
District Judge: in Harris County?
A. $2,000 or a petition in lieu of a filing
fee.
0. Did you have occasion to examine or to
look at your election returns after you won your
general election race?
A. Yes.
0. Okay. Are there any documents here that
were part of any findings that you might have
made in examining your judicial race?
A. Yes.
Q. Might you be able to tell me what it
looks like?
A. Certainly. I will be glad to pull as
many ‘out as I can find.
Qe Okay. This is all 19887
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A. Correct.
Q. Why ‘don't we go back for a minute,
Prior toi your running fori District Judge in
Harris County, what was your immediate employment
prior to that?
A. I was a self-employed attorney, and I
was the tax master for 11 Harris County civil
district courts.
Q. Past master?
A. Tax —=
Q Tax master, excuse me.
A. Por 11 Harris County civil district
courts.
MR. CLEMENTS: We are tough down
here.
Q. (By. Ms. Ifill) Now, you prepared all
these figures yourself?
A. Correct.
Qe Okay. Now —-—
A. With the -- well, the figures I copied
from the voter ==
4 Tables?
A. Yes.
QQ. Okay.
A. The only exception is the red figures
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along the bottom of those, which are totals,
which I had somebody else do the mechanical job
Of adding up columns of figures.
Q. Are these arranged in the order in
which -- ‘they're just in no particular order
whatsoever?
A. They are in no particular order.
QO. I assume, since 1 can't imagine what a
lot of this ‘means; and 'I'm going to ask you about
it; but it takes some kind of knowledge on your
part to be able to put this together. Now, where
did you get whatever knowledge it took to put
together this chart and these figures, or did you
just copy them directly from another: chart?
A. I- copied them from ‘another chart, but
it's the way they're arranged that, I think,
makes them meaningful.
OQ. Have you created this kind of table with
the figures arranged in this fashion for other
judicial elections besides your own in '88?
A. Yes. Let me be clear. The documents
I've handed you aren't just an analysis of my
race, They include numbers from my race, but --
Q. These are all for the general election
for 19887
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A. Correct.
Ow For District Judge elections?
A. Correct.
Q. Okay. Would you say that you're
familiar with the population of Harris County. in
general?
A. In general.
A. I don't know every one of them; but I'm
familiar with, you know, various ethnic groups
and socioeconomic groups and where they live in
the county. I'm familiar geographically with the
county.
Q. How did you become familiar with it,
just by virtue of living here your whole life?
A. No. For example, in 1981 1. was
responsible for drawing the lines for the
congressional districts that Harris County is
currently operating under and --
Q. This was when you worked in the state
legislature in the Committee on Redistricting?
A. Correct. And 1 was -- 1 also drew the
state senatorial lines that were vetoed by the
governor in 1981. I have made a study over a
fairly long period of time with election returns
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in Harris County.
0. Why?
A. They interest me. it's a hobby. As far
back as when I was in the eighth grade, I can
remember getting a voter precinct map and a
county map of the state and coloring in who won
what precincts
Q. Don't they have Boy Scouts here or
something?
A. 1 vas in that, too. It has interested
me for a long time.
Q. Why don't we then go back to your
drawing these congressional lines in 1981. Now ,
were you doing that as a member of a staff or.~--
A. Yes.
OQ. And were there others who drew those
lines with you, or were you personally
responsible for drawing the lines?
A. For Harris County, 1 was given certain
parameters.
Q. I don't understand.
A. I was told there were certain policy
goals that they wanted to accomplish, and I drew
lines accordingly.
Q. Do you remember what any of those goals
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were?
A. I can remember a few. I was told to
draw a district in the inner city that had
between 60 and 64 percent minority voting
strength with more blacks than browns,
significantly more blacks than browns, along
generally of the lines suggested to the committee
by the late Mickey Leland who appeared before a
committee meeting of the Committee on
Redistricting.
Oe Now, you were specifically chosen to do
this work. Had you had some prior experience
drawing district lines?
A. No, there aren't too many people that
ever. do that sort of thing. I say I was chosen,
I was an employee of a state senator who knew
that I. ‘hadian affinity for numbers in politics by
virtue of ‘me having worked. for him for eight
years at that time,
QO. And since then have you drawn any other
district lines anywhere?
A. No.
Q. Okay.
A. No, that's. not quite true. I.once
played around with a -- well, I once played
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around drawing lines for redistricting the State
Court of Appeals, but it was more of just a joke
thing I. did. Nobody asked me to. It wasn't an
official effort, and I think I threw the thing
away as soon. as I got finished with it,
Q. So you did that kind of on your own. Do
you have principles that you would follow in
drawing district lines?
A. It depends on the kind of thing I'm
drawing districts for. There are different --
Q. For instance, for legislative seats?
A. Okay. in the national legislature “for
the House of Representatives or for the State
Senate?
OQ. For the State Senate.
A. Okay. Well, there were various criteria
I did have. Population equality was one, I'm
trying to think. Obviously, I was told not to
make any efforts to discriminate against any
particular minority group.
Q. 1s that one of your principles or what
you were told? I mean, if you were drawing
district lines, like, when you played around with
the Court of Appeals?
A. As. 1 recall, when 1I was playing ‘around
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with the Court of Appeals, I was just trying to
see what one'‘would do if one tried to redistrict
them on the basis of population equality.
Os Okay. So we've got population equality,
and you've been told that you don't want to
discriminate against any group. Any other
principles that. you can think of?
A. I think case load equality is something
that they were using.
Q. Is: that for judicial districts?
A. Yeah, that was something that somebody
mentioned.
Q. Is that something that you believe
should be a principle of redistricting judicial
districts?
A. I have never given it any thought, to be
honest. I don't sknow.
Q. May I ask you again at the end of the
deposition?
A. It would probably take more thought than
I'm going to have between now and the end of the
deposition. In a perfect world, I suppose that
might be a criteria; but there are too many other
things one has to take into consideration.
Q. Okay, why don't we name some of the
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other ‘things... We've got population equality, not
discriminating against any particular group,
perhaps case load equality. Anything else?
A. Geographic compactness.
Q. Geographic compactness. And what
exactly does that mean?
A. Not having a district, for example, that
looks like barbells, you know, with a big area on
one side of the county and a big area on the
other side of the county separated by a freeway
median.
Oe Is that always true?
A. I think ideally that's something one
should try "to. do in drawing. districts. I know
there are certain exceptions, but when I was
drawing districts, it's something I tried to do.
Following natural boundaries or geographic or
legal boundaries is something I tried to do when
I1 was drawing districts so that people will know
that if vou live north of a bayou or south of a
bayou or north of a freeway, your congressman,
senator or judge, what-have-you is so-and-so. if
you: live in this county, your judge or your
congressman is so-and-so; and if you live in this
county, your congressman or judge is so-and-sO.
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I think ideally districts should be easy to
understand and easy to follow, rather than have
to ask somebody what voting precinct you live in
in order to determine, you know, who their
elected officials are, ideally.
Q. Are there any criteria you can think of?
A. Not offhand’, no. It's been a long time
since 1 was active in redistricting. This is
1989 and that was 1981 so it's been more than
eight years.
Q. Okay, and since then you said that you
haven't done any redistricting besides this one
thing that you played with?
A. It was a slow Saturday afternoon then.
Os Strange idea of fun.
Okay. Now, before we get to this
election in 1988, have you done tables like this
for other elections before 1988 -—--
A. Yes.
Qs -- in Harris County?
A, Yes.
Os, And what years did you do that?
A. I have done some charts markedly
different from - that one for the '80 and '82
elections.
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Qi Were you asked by anyone in particular
to do these charts, or did “you do them on your
own?
A. I did them for funi+and I have for years.
Qe I'm trying to understand. Have you ever
been hired by a candidate?
MR. CLEMENTS: You do voting rights
cases.
MS. IFILL: That's. right, but not
for fun.
0. (By: Ms, "ITfill) Have you ever been hired
by a candidate for any office to examine
precincts or to prepare tables of any kind?
A. Hired? No. I have volunteered my time
on behalf of some candidates to assist them in
the election. I think that's the ethical duty of
a lawyer.
Os Would you mind naming some of the
candidates you assisted or consulted with?
A. Assisted, I think, would be more
accurate.
Q. Okay.
A. Do you want them chronologically or do
you want them just random?
Q. I'don't think it really matters.
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A. I will try to do it in an organized
manner.
Q. Okay.
A. In 1978 1 would have just become a
lawyer and that was the first year I volunteered
my time in judicial races,“ and 1 principally
helped Judge John Peavy that year in his race for
the 246th District Court in "the primary.
Q. And he's .a black man, isn't he, John
Peavy?
A, Yes, he is, I can't remember helping
anybody else in 1978.
Q. Okay.
A. In fact, I'm pretty certain I 4didn'.c.
In 1980 the only judicial campaign I can remember
getting involved in, and it was very tangentially,
was Jack “Smith, who ‘ran for the First Court of
Appeals that year. I was involved in another
race that 'yvear that did not affect the judiciary.
Q. And who was that?
A. Jack Ogg, the gentleman I worked for.
He had a ‘race in the spring:-— he had a race in
the Democratic primary, and he had a race in the
general election so I helped both.
In 1982, I'm trying to remember. 1:rdaid
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not help anybody in -- the only person I helped
in the spring was Jack 0gg. And in the fall =~
no, that's not true. In the spring-of '82°.1 also
helped a gentleman run for the Supreme Court by
the name of Bill Kilgarlin. I'm sOrLry. Then, in
1982 in the fall, I'm trying to remember who all
I was helping that year. Oh, 1 remember, I went
on. a trip to. Furope, I was gone for two weeks
before the election, and I wasn't of much
agsgistance to anybody in the fall of that year.
I voted absentee for a lot Of reasons.
Then, ‘in 1984, 1 got considerably more
active. I helped a gentleman by the name of
Warren Hancock run for the Court of Appeals. I
helped a gentleman by the name of Charlie Price
run for the: 215th Civil District Court inthe
primary. In the fall of 1984. 1 helped three or
four people. I helped Shelia Jackson Lee. I
helped Ken Harrison. I helped Davy Wilson. §
think I helped Sharolyn Wood. Thig is.in "847
Q. Uh-huh.
A. I volunteered my services to some other
people, but for whatever reason, they didn't
want -- they didn't think that the help I was
Offering was all that significant. So, you know,
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that's it for'84.
Q. Okay. What about '867?
A. “B.5.. This is. /political help? I mean,
this is help in a campaign?
Qe. Yes.
A. Okay. I'm reluctant .to count two ‘things
I did in '86 was help with a campaign. As an
attorney,» took a couple of election cases
attempting to mandamus certain judicial
candidates off the ballot, if you will. But +}
did that in my capacity as an attorney and not as
a political volunteer, Does that count?
OQ. Kind of. I'm really more interested in
when you:did this kind of thing.
A. In numbers, okay.
Q. Yes.
A. Okay. '86, let's see, The fall of "'86 1
helped A. D. Azios. I helped Ed Landry. I
helped.
Q. You said Andry?
A, Landry, L-a-n-d-r-y. I helped Tom
Sullivan. Oh, and 1 helped Lamar McCorkle.
Qs I was just about to ask you that.
A. I had forgotten. I don't know how 1
could forget.
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Q. Is that it for '867
A. Yes.
0» Okay. What about '88, besides yourself?
A, It was a whole lot myself to -- in the
primary I helped myself and only myself.
Q. Uh-huh.
A. Inthe general election, it occurred ..to
me that any assistance I could give to any joint
efforts by Republican candidates to target swing
voters would naturally accrue to my benefit, and
I gave some assistance to the group effort by
certain Republican judicial candidates.
Q. Group effort. Now, can you describe
that? Is this an organized effort or just did
some candidates come together --
A. Some candidates came together. Most of
the candidates came together.
Q. And they requested your help, or did you
volunteer your assistance?
A. I think it was more or less assumed I
would give it. At this point everybody knew that
I -- I think most judges in Harris County know
that I'm somewhat of a student of judicial
political statistics, and they could figure out
it was to their benefit -- it was to my benefit
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l to help them, and therefore, I did it. I- can't —--
2 it's sort of like the chicken or egg question. I
3 can't remember if they asked me or if I
4 volunteered. I'm sure it ‘was just sort of
5 understood that I would help by them and by ne.
6 Q. Let”s go quickly through: this list again.
7 in: »78, John Peavy?
8 A. Yes
9 Q. Did he win that election?
10 A. Yes.
Okay. And then in. '80, Jack Smith. Did fo
em
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12 he win?
13 A. Yes.
14 Q. Jack 0gg?
15 A. He won in '80 in the spring and the ' fall,
16 and lost in "82.
1:7 Qe And Bill Rilgaren in '827
18 A, It's. Rilgarlin, K~i=-l-g-a-r-l1l-i-n. If
19 you've ever heard of the civil rights case,
20 Kilgarlin versus Martin =--
21 Q. That's him?
2 A. -- from. the mid 60's, that's him.
23 Q. Uh-huh.
24 A. That's him, and he: lost the democratic
25 primary, but then the guy he lost to died, and
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A 1 the State Democratic Executive Committee put him
2 2 on the ballot, and he ‘won in the fall of that
3 year.
i 4 OQ. Okay. Warren Hancock in '84 in the
| 3 Court of Appeals?
6 A. He won the Democrat -- he finished
i 7 second in the Democratic primary, made the runoff,
| 8 finished first ‘in the runoff and lost in the
9 general election.
% 10 QO. And Charlie Price?
: 11 A. Lost in the Democratic primary.
12 Oe And Sheila Jackson Lee?
» 13 A. She won the Democratic primary and lost
14 in the general election.
15 Da And Ken Harrison?
16 A. He lost in the general election.
17 Q. Davy Wilson?
18 A. Won in the general election.
And Sharolyn Wood?
20 A. Won in the general election.
21 Q. A. De AZziO8?
22 A. This is in .'86.
23 Qe. 1n:.'867
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L l A. Won. They didn't have primary opponents.
’ 2 Q. Uh-huh. Tom Sullivan?
3 A. He won,
i 4 Q. And Lamar McCorkle?
| 5 A. He won.
6 Qy And you won in. '88?
| 7 A. Yes.
1 8 Q. Now in '88 when you did some work for
9 the Republicans, what kind of work did you do?
i 10 Could you be more specific about the work you did
| | 11 for them?
12 A. That book. That book,
» 13 Q. The book. Okay.
| 14 A. To. put 'it:'succinctly, 1 targeted
15 precincts and targeted media to track
3 16 discretionary judicial voters. That's what 1 did.
| x7 Q. When you say "discretionary judicial
18 voters," what do you mean? Do you mean swing
| 19 voters?
| 20 A. A voter that casts a ballot for more
21 than one judicial candidate of each party, or for
| 22 at least one judicial candidate of each party.
i 23 Understand swing voters, that being a person who
% 24 doesn't pull ‘a straight ticket =--
t 25 Q. Uh-huh.
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A. -- is different from a discretionary
judicial voter because there are a large number
Of people who cast split tickets in other races
like nonjudicial races that because of the lack
Of issue orientation in a judicial race do not
cast a -- or still cast what amounts to a
straight ticket vote in judicial races,
OQ. 1s. discretionary judicial. voter a: term
Of:.art, or ‘is that your term for the kind of
voting you described?
A. It isa term I developed, but: I'm sure
it's a term that other political scientists =-- Or
the political scientists would agree to or would
agree is a valid term if I could be given five
minutes with them.
Q. Okay. Why don't you describe what the
different sections of this book are and what's
contained in each section, starting with the
first one?
A. Well, they all have essentially the same
data in them. They are just arranged and ranked
somewhat differently for various purposes. In
the first section, which is the one marked with
the tab. "1984 DJV Number ," ‘the first column is
precinct, and lI would ~~
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Oe What does DJV mean?
A. Discretionary judicial voter. I would
then refer you to the last two columns of the
page. One of them has Harmon Percent and
Kolinda Percent. Harmon was the name of the
Republican judicial candidate that got the
highest percentage of the vote in the 1984
general election, Kolinda is the name of the
Republican judicial candidate that got the lowest
percentage of the vote in the 1984 general
election.
Qe Why did you target 19847?
A. I also have 1986.
Q. Okay. This is just this particular
section is dealing with --
A. Correct.
Qe Okay.
A. Okay. The Harmon percentage minus the
Kolinda percentage, therefore, would give you the
percentage of people that cast a split ticket
judicial vote in that precinct, if you assume
that Kolinda got fewer votes than anybody else in
every precinct in Harris County and if you assume
that Harmon got more votes than any other
Republican judicial candidate in every precinct
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in "Harris "County.
Q. Uh-huh.
A. That's not guite the case, but the
exceptions are rare and the number of votes
separating Harmon from the highest are so
insignificant that for statistical purposes, 1
used Harmon as the measure of the high water
Republican judicial vote and Kolinda as the low
water Republican judicial vote,
QO. Have you seen this method used before by
Political scientists or did you devise this
method yourself?
A. I have seen the method of measuring
swing voters used by other political scientists,
but --
0. I thought you were measuring
discretionary judicial --
A. But nobody ever. applied it to judicial
races before this, and it seemed to me that since
judicial races are different from other races,
that one needed to limit one's analysis to
judicial races.
Q. So you have seen it applied to other
races, but not: to judicial races. Is that what
you're saying?
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A. Correct, to measure swing voters. In
any event, then I -- well, then, for each
precinct in Harris County, I came up with a
percentage of discretionary judicial votes for
1984 based on these percentages. Are you with me?
Qe. Got you.
A. Okay. Then, 1 got the number of
discretionary judicial votes, that is, the number
of votes that Kolinda received -- or the number
of votes Harmon received minus the number of
votes Kolinda received and came up with a number
of discretionary judicial votes in that precinct.
Are you with me?
Q. Yes. And where is that indicated?
A. DJV number, and this first category
ranks the voting precincts of Harris County in
order of number of discretionary judicial votes
cast in the 1984 general election in Harris
County.
0 Now, Harmon and Kolinda ran in the '84
race, right?
A. Correct.
Q. Okay. And you subtracted the number of
votes that Kolinda got from the number of votes
that Harmon got to get your number of DJV voters?
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1 A. Correct.
2 Q. Now, why is that in a column that says
3 19867?
4 A. I'm SOL YL Yi Right here. In 1984 DJV
5 votes. It's in the 1984 column.
6 Q. Now I see the chronological order from
7 the highest to the lowest?
8 A. Correct, and they go on and on and on,
9 i What about the other sections, do they
10 do the same thing for other races; or are they
11 different?
12 A, No . I only used’ four races in this
analysis. I used the Harmon race from '84, the
14 Kolinda race from '84. I used the race from 1986
15 between Bud Warren and Mike Palmerson and the
16 race from 1984 between Michael McSpadden and
17 Mo Sanchez.
18 OQ. Okay.
19 A. Now, those percentages I don't have in
20 here. They are on this disk, ‘but the percentages,
21 that is, the DJV difference percentages here and
22 the number of discretionary votes are in here,
23 but 1 didn't bother to put the raw numbers or the
24 percentages in here, Actually, it wasn't my
25 choosing. I £0l1d the uguy .tO put this out, the
°
pr
a
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computer programmer I hired to do this for me, to
do it; and he. just didn't, And this book gave me
everything that I needed for my purposes,
Q. All right. Now, we've got the first
section. The second section?
A. The second section, again, it's the same
data. It's organized different. This does it by
voting precinct number.
Q. l to 660 or whatever?
A. Well, actually 1 to -- because the 1984
voting precincts do not exist that exist today,
was not able to. rank the 19836 -- I'm sorry, ‘the
precincts created between '84 and '86.
Q. So you stopped at 6157?
A. Correct.
Q. Okay. The third section?
A. Is ranked according to percentage of
discretionary judicial votes in 1984.
Qe. Okay.
A. Again, forget the -- the first one that
counts. is going to be this one, “217; and it'll
pick up from there.
Q. Okay. And this next section?
A. Ranks according to the number of
discretionary judicial votes cast in 1986.
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Q. Okay. The last two sections, a Harmon
percent and a Kolinda percent?
A. That ranks the precincts in Harris
County in declining order of percentage for
Harmon and Kolinda.
QO. What does this whole book tell me if I
were a Republican candidate running in 19887?
A. It would tell you where you should
target mail, where you should target card pushers
on election day. With other data, ‘it could tell
you where to put what kind of media. You want to
know how each of those can be calculated from
this?
Qe. No. I want to ask you whether there are
any general similarities in where to target. I
mean, are there specific areas that in general
you came up with that should be targeted, or was
each precinct: just different? Was there no rhyme
Or reason?
A. It's. not a. totally rational == or "to
some extent, it's a checkerboard -- to some
extent it's. a checkerboard.
Q. All throughout the county then?
A. Yes.
Q. No particular neighborhoods?
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A. Yes, there are particular neighborhoods,
yes. 1 think first is ‘River Oaks; secondly is
the Meyerland-Braeswood area; third are the
Memorial Villages, and I emphasize villages for a
reason. Fourth are the Western Heights,
OQ. What's the reason because there were
some villages that were targeted and some were
not.
A. The Memorial area. I don't know if you
know much about Houston.
OQ. No, in fact, when I saw. dt, 1 thought it
was, like, a funeral home.
A. Okay. The Memorial area refers to an
area between the Katy Freeway and Buffalo Bayou,
and it's''a very large area, but there is a
demographic difference between -- there's not a
demographic difference, but there is a difference
on how people vote in judicial races if you live
east of Gessner Road as opposed to west of
Gessner Road.
Q. What's the difference?
A. The judicial voting percents is about
half west of Gessner than it is east of Gessner.
Q. Do you have any reason for that or was
that not ‘part. of your ==
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A. I have a theory, but it's only a theory.
Q. What's your theory?
A. My theory is that the people that live
west of Gessner are not as likely to have lived
in Houston as long; and since they tend to be
Republican, they were always Republicans because
wherever it is they came from, they were
Republicans up there; and they want to come down
here and vote straight Republican ticket. And in
the Memorial Villages, you're more likely to have
people that have lived in Houston longer, and
therefore, they used to vote in Democratic
primaries and understand that there are a lot of
Democrats that aren't necessarily to use the
famous "L" word, liberal.
Q. What other DJV target areas did you come
up with, River Oaks, Braeswood, Memorial Village?
A. Western Heights. That's not -- the
Heights is an area. It's the western part of the
Heights.
Qe Small W?
A. Yes.
Q. Okay.
A. South Pasadena, Tanglewood, Westbury.
How far down do you want me to go?
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Qe There are that many?
A. Oh, well, I mean, I can -- you know.
Then there were widely scattered precincts. By
the time we're getting to Westbury, it's probably
an area where you only targeted half to 40
percent of the precincts.
Q. Why don't we stop there then.
A. There is also -- I mean, we targeted
some areas in Spring Branch, Baytown. I mean, I
could go on, but =
Q. But more isolated precincts then?
A. Yes.
QQ Okay.
MS, IFILL: Can we mark this as
Deposition Exhibit 17?
(WHEREUPON, the instrument referred
to by Counsel was marked for identification
Deposition Exhibit NO. ls)
Q. (By Ms. TFill) About how much time did
it take you to prepare this analysis?
A. The design of it probably took me no
more than five or six hours, but then going and
finding the right computer person --
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Q. And inputting?
A. --> andi. arranging for it to be inputted
was, you know, somewhat extensive and was
somewhat costly. I mean, it cost me money to get
people willing to. 40 all that inputting.
Qs Were you reimbursed or paid by the
Republican party or by the Republican judges?
A. No.
Qe. Are you aware of whether or not
Republican judges actually used this information
Or was it just available?
A. I'm certain that the: joint effort used
this information because the mailout from the
joint Republican judges --
QO. Corresponded with your target areas?
A. I gave the label company, you know, the
precincts to mail to.
Q. Okay. Why don't. we gO to this other set
of documents that you gave me, and this is from
the 1988 general election --
A. Correct,
Q. -= for district judges =—-
A. Correct.
Q. -- in Harris County?
A. And if somehow we could clip these
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together and mark them as Deposition Exhibit 2,
or maybe we can staple them later.
MS. IFILL: But if you can ‘mark
those, please.
(WHEREUPON, the instrument referred
to by Counsel was marked for identification
Deposition Exhibit NoW 2.)
Q. (By Ms. Ifill) Okay. Why don't you
describe to me what these tables indicate.
A. The number of votes received by various
judicial candidates in the 1988 general election
in this area.
Q. In.each precinct or in a particular area
in the county?
A. In each precinct and in a particular
area, These precincts are grouped by areas. The
precinct on the page that has the Deposition
Exhibit 2 sticker on it, which 'is a single page,
you'll: note has’ Riverside on one side of it.
This is the election results in 15 selected
judicial races in the Riverside area. It's by
individual precincts, but. it's totaled at the
bottom as ‘to these precincts in this area.
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QO. Why don't we go through the areas we
have. We have Riverside, Third Ward, Baytown?
A. Baytown. This is Pasadena, these two
pages.
OQ. Pasadena. Okay.
A. This was my first draft of these. This
is River Oaks.
0 River Oaks.
A. And this is the Braeswood area.
Q. Is every precinct in Harris County
covered with these figures here?
A. Oh," no, «no. It ‘takes a long time for me
to do these and I'm still doing them and 1'1ll
probably be doing them for the next year.
Q. Why did you do them for just these
specific areas?
A. various reasons. I'm: basically trying
to‘! figureiout why I.d4idn't do better than. I 4id.
Where in Harris County I did well; where in
Harris County I did poorly; what media works in
various parts of Harris County; and that was the
purpose of doing the analyses the way I set this
one up.
Q. What was the total number of votes you
received? Do you remember?
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L § A. I don't know.
1 2 Q. Do you remember by what percentage you
3 won?
i 4 A. I" remember: I got 50.48 percent of the
| 5 vote ‘and I won by 7,004 votes. It might be
6 75008, “but: it's" in that range.
i 7 Q. You did this because you wanted to know
8 why you didn't do better in certain areas?
9 A. And why certain people did well in
i 10 certain areas. 1 know in parts of towh' I d4id
| 11 very well. In other parts of town I did not do
12 so well,
| 13 Q. Where did you do well?
I 14 A. On the west side of Harris County.
15 Q. And where didn't you do well?
{ 16 A. On the east side of Harris County. I'm
} 17 talking about the white east side of Harris
18 County.
I 19 Q. What did you learn overall about -- you
1 20 said you wanted to know why you didn't do so well.
21 You did this chart now. You figured this all out.
i 22 What did you learn?
1 23 A. I haven't finished my analysis yet. My
e 24 preliminary opinion at this time is that I didn't
) 25 have enough money to spend money on television,
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and that the east side of Harris County -- the
discretionary judicial vote on the east side of
Harris County is more likely to vote for somebody
who uses television.
Q. Did your opponent use television?
A. No. The tendencies on the east side of
Harris County are Democratic.
Q. Do you have any idea how much it cost to
do television advertising in Harris County?
A. I know one candidate this last year did
it“on $20,000.
Q., Is that''a low: figure or “high figure in
your opinion?
A. It"s. a lot of money.
Q. I‘'will accept that. Okay. Did you do
well, for instance, in River Oaks? This one is
River Oaks?
A. Yes.
Qn Okay. For all ‘the precincts in*"River
Oaks, you would say you did well. Now, what is
your measure of having done well?
A. I look at the number of discretionary
judicial votes cast in a particular precinct and
figure out what percentage of discretionary
jndiclial votes "I . got.
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Q. So then you used the same method that
you used to prepare that book? You're only
looking at discretionary judicial votes to
determine whether or not you did well?
A. With the exception of what I call the
spectrum analysis which is sort of a spectrum
from the weakest Republican to the strongest
Republican, where I fit in this spectrum. IE]
finished first, second or. third, or if I finished
very close in number of votes received behind
first, second and third, then I figure I did well,
O. So if you're looking only at
discretionary judicial voters, you're not looking
at total. votes then? You're only looking at
Republican votes?
A. No, I'm not looking at Republican votes.
I'm looking. at how I did among swing voters.
discount votes that I would get by virtue of
being a Republican, and 1 discount votes that I
get because I'm a Democrat -- that I don't get
because my opponent is a Democrat and figure out
where I fit in between.
Q. So then what did you do? I mean, tell
me exactly what you did. Did you take that table
that you prepared in Deposition Exhibit 1 and
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look at those precincts, and then plug those
precincts into this analysis, or how d4id you --
A. I. haven't gotten that far yet.
Q. Okay.
A. I’m a long.ways from that. Atl" I'm
doing so far’, all 1've had: the ‘chance to do0 80
far is to figure out where in the spectrum in
various parts of town I fit.
0» Did you come up with any other
conclusions about the 1988 general election as a
result of preparing these figures?
A. I've come up with other conclusions as a
result of analyzing the election results and
these -- well, yes.
Qe Are the conclusions that you came up
with conclusions that you made as a result of
being asked to analyze the 1988 election for
purposes of this case?
A. No .
0. So you had analyzed the 1988 election
prior: to being ‘asked to participate in this case?
A. Oh, yes.
Q. And what conclusions did you come up
with?
A. The first. conclusion I came up with ‘is
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that the Democratic lever produced more votes for
judicial candidates in 1988 than did the
Republican lever. The Republican judicial
candidates who won had to fight against Lloyd
Benson's coattails and didn't have the benefit of
George Bush's coattails going forward. There
were Bush coattails to be sure, but there were
Benson coattails that were greater in Harris
County in judicial races than Bush coattails.
That's Conclusion No. 1.
Oo. Okay.
A. For ‘1988. Conclusion No. 2, the largest
single determinant among -- of other factors that
influenced people beyond party, that is, by using
the term "discretionary judicial vote™ I am of
necessity excluding all of the people, a vast
majority of the people, that voted for all
judicial candidates in one party or the other. I
concluded that the number of judicial candidates
in Harris County ‘is declining =-=-. I'm sorry, I
concluded that the number of people that cast a
non- discretionary judicial ballot; that is, that
vote for . all of one party or the other in Harris
County is declining, It's not declining much,
but ‘it's declining.
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Q. Let me get that straight again. Maybe I
didn't hear you. Are you saying that the number
Of discretionary judicial voters is declining or
increasing?
A. Is. increasing.
Qe. Okay. What other conclusions did you
come up with?
A. That among DJV's, perhaps the largest
influence or determinant on how they vote is the
results of the Houston Bar Association's poll.
Q. Okay. Anything else?
A. That the gender of a candidate is a
determining factor in how some people vote.
On In how some people vote?
A. Yes. Of necessity, we have already
excluded 85 percent of the population before we
go to bar polls.
Q. Any other conclusions?
A. Yes. The results of the Houston =-- the
endorsements by the Houston Post and Houston
Chronical for judicial candidates pull some
weight in influencing people's votes in judicial
races.
Q. Okay. You said that gender determines
how some people vote, Endorsements has weight
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with some people. I mean, were you shocked by
this in any way or: is this =—-
A. No .
OQ. It was just things you noted about --
A. About -- what interested me is what
percentage of the people appear to be influenced
by what.
Q. How can you tell that gender influences
some people's votes or that the Houston Bar poll
influenced the votes of some people?
A. Well, the easy way to look at it is that
37 out of 38 winners of the bar poll were winners
of the election.
Qe. Okay. What about gender?
A. It appeared to me that female candidates
tended to pick up about a percent and a half if
they were running against a male candidate by
virtue of being a woman.
O. How did you isolate the woman factor?
A. By excluding all other possible factors.
You look at races in which -- at political races
in which as many factors as I could determine
appeared to be equal and --
9 Did this cut across race lines, as well?
This was also true for black women?
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A. Yes.
Qe What other things did you notice about
the election that you learned?
A. 1 concluded and 1 stated very shortly
after the election rather publicly that race did
not. appear to be a factor or certainly a
determining factor or even a significant factor
in the 1988 judicial elections in the general
election.
Q. Did any black candidates win in the
general election for judicial office?
A. Not that 'I..recall. No . In"fact,; they
did« nots.
Q. How did you go about determining that
race did not appear to be a factor?
A. Well, you could make the objective
finding that, again, all else being equal,
expenditures being equal or identical, black
candidates seem to run as well as white
candidates did running against arguably
equivolent opponents.
Q. This wasn't some kind of statistical
analysis you did? This was looking at ‘black
candidates, looking at their opponents, looking
at their qualifications and making an assumption
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about similar expenditures; is that correct?
A. Similar expenditures, techniques,
qualifications, you know, if all of the other
objective criteria that one can point to, bar
poll results, community endorsements, newspaper
endorsements, et cetera, appear to be equal and
the only thing separating two candidates, for
example, was sex, then one could conclude that
sex made a difference. If it was the -- 1f they
turned out to be the same, everything else being
equal, one could conclude that race was not a
difference,
OQ. Is that the reality? I mean, did you
often find that black candidates won the bar poll
with equal frequency as white candidates, got
endorsements from the Chronicle and the Post,
spent the same amount of money?
A. Yes, I can give you some cases where
that thing happened.
Q. In the 1988 general election?
A. Yes,
Q. Okay. Why don't you give me that.
A, The classical example is to compare the
race between Sharolyn Wood and Madeline Sitzes
with the race between Bill Powell and Weldon
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Berry. In the Wood-Sitzes race, both candidates
were white. In the Powell-Berry race, both
candidates -- Powell was white and Berry was
black. You know, there didn't seem to be a
backlash against Weldon Berry. In fact, I think
Madeline Sitzes got fewer votes than Weldon Berry
did, despite the fact that Powell's campaign and
Wood's campaign were essentially identical. They
both got on the same joint efforts. They both
used television, almost exclusively.
Oo. So that would be the method that you
would use, then? You would look ‘at a candidacy
or a race between two white candidates and
compare it to a race between a black and a white
candidate?
A. That's one thing, yes. That's one
method I used. You can look at some election
results and see that there's very little
difference as well.
Q. You mean in the number of votes that
they got?
A. In certain precincts, yes, and overall.
Ooh, yes, certainly in the number of votes they
got. That's an integral part of the analysis,
not just that they won or lost.
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OQ. Do you remember how many votes Madeline
Sitzes got?
A. Madeline Sitzes got 309,528 votes,
Weldon Berry got 308,589 votes. So out of
roughly 900,000 votes cast in Harris County,
there was a 1,000-vote spread between the two.
Q. Have you at any point in your analysis
Of the precincts in 1988 ‘or did you at any time
identify which precincts in your view were
precincts. in which the majority of the voters are
black?
A. Yes.
Q. Do you have a list of those precincts?
A. Yes.
Q. Now, how does this tell me what the
majority black precincts in your view was? Where
does it say that?
A. These are the precincts I determined to
be majority black: 1, 7, 19, :21, 23, 24, -8L
cetera.
Qe. How did you determine these precincts to
be majority black?
A. As I recall, they are the ones contained
in census tracts that are majority black. I
might have excluded a few. in: fact, 1 know .I
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excluded a few because precincts that were within
my knowledge are within census tracts that are
majority black" which that portion of the census
tract 1s not.
Q. So you use census figures from 1980 to
make this determination?
A. As I update them based on my knowledge
of certain precincts.
Q. Okay. Now, how do you update them? You
said based on your knowledge. You know that a
particular area has increased in black population,
for instance, and so you decreased, and so you
know?
A. Yes.
Q. Okay. S50 that's based on your local
knowledge?
A. Yes, otherwise I'd use the results of
the most recent federal census. It would be a
fairly standard analysis.
Q. Do you know what the total number of
precincts you have here is, about, majority black
precincts?
A. 105, “110.
Q. Okay. Now, why did. you make .this list?
Did you make this before the election or as part
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Of your analysis for the«Republican --
to =-- let's see.
Actually .I made it: in 1987.
And why did you make it then?
The precincts are identical. I wanted
I'm trying to remember why I
made that list, why 1 made that analysis. I
think
Cheryl
-- oh, I remember. I wanted to see how
Irvin did in the 1986 general election is
why I made the piece of paper that you have
before
Qe
A.
Republ
Harris
you.
Why did you want to know how she did?
It interested to me to see how a black
ican did in 1986 in black portions of
County.
Do you have that analysis somewhere here?
it?
That's "it.
So she's indicated here?
Correct.
Okay. And in this 1988 ‘race’ or 1988
I wanted to see how black candidates did
running against whites and how black candidates
did in the black precincts as opposed to -- or
what percentage of the votes black candidates got
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in black precincts as opposed to how they did in
the rest of the county.
Qe. Are all of these races races in which a
black candidates was running?
A. Yes.
OQ. Okay. This is for the Democratic
primary?
A, Correct.
Q. Okay. And this is also for the
Democratic primary?
A. No. The one that's on yellow paper is
for the general election. The one that's on
white checkered paper is for the Democratic
primary.
QO. Okay. Did you -- well, let me go back.
In 1986 you wanted to find out how a black
Republican might 407?
A. Correct.
Qe. And then in 1988 you analyzed the
Democratic primary. Why? Why were you
interested in that?
A. Because one particular friend of mine
who was very active in the campaign for a black
that was running against a white, and she was
fairly confident that the black candidate would
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win the Democratic primary. And after it was
over, we got to talking; and she said she didn't
know what happened; but she was sure going to
find out; and, you know, I figured 1'd4 find out
and let her Know. I never got around to telling
her, “but —-
Qe. Was this information also for your own
use or -- you said you never got around to
telling the particular friend about 1988. - Was
this something that was prepared for use of a
candidate?
A. Solely for me as a political
statistician hobbyist.
Q. Okay. Now, in 1986 your analysis of
Cheryl Irvin's race, what d4id you conclude from
having done this table?
A. That there are -- that being black is
not a factor that will influence black voters to
become discretionary judicial voters when the
black in question is a Republican.
Qe Okay. Now, you can determine that by
only looking at the race of a black woman
Republican? You can determine whether or not
black voters are going to become discretionary
judicial voters?
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A. I couldn't certainly determine that.
don't recall saving anything ‘about: the .sex or
gender,
Os I just added that.
A. It can be determined, for example, by
looking at the Harlow Carter race from 1984. It
could also be determined by looking at the
Schuble-Proctor race from 1988.
OQ. So is this something that you do every
election?
A. Every election I look at the --
0. I mean the elections in general, but
this is specific. This is a table that deals
with how a particular black candidate won, SO
every two years you say you choose a black
candidate's race you want to look at?
A. IT didn't say that. What I said was it
just happened to be something that caught my
fancy on a slow day.
MR. CLEMENTS: It was reduced to
writing instead of just analyzing.
Q (By Ms. 1£1il1l1) Now, for ‘'88 what: did
you conclude, the same thing as for '867?
1
A. Right. The '838 analysis you ‘have before
you is what the primary was. What's interesting
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about the 1988 race, with one exception of the
five races on.there, that when a black won the
Democratic primary, he or she won the black vote,
When a white won the Democratic primary, he or
she won the white vote, that as the blacks vote
went, so also went the white vote in the
Democratic primary.
0. And what does that mean or what does
that say to you?
A. It said to me there is no black voting
along racial lines in 1988 in the Democratic
primary.
Q. Are you familiar with a bivariate
regression analysis?
A. No, I'm-afraid ‘I'm "not.
Q. Are you familiar with a correlation
regression analysis?
A. I'm sure I could figure it. out «if
somebody tried to explain it to me. I'm not sure
anybody else is familiar with discretionary
judicial voters.
OQ. That may well be true.
Do you know whether the census figures
that you used, and you used census figures and
then you updated them with your own local
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knowledge. Do you know whether those census
figures were based on a census 5 percent sample
Or a census 100 percent sample?
A. I believe the Census Bureau tries to get
everybody to make it 5.
Q. But you don't know whether they did a 5
percent sample or a 100 percent sample?
A. I don't ‘think it's either of those. I
don't think the Census Department claims to have
gotten every human being in the United States,
but 1 think they do claim: to get more than 5
percent.
Qe Are you familiar with the term 5 percent
sample in the Census Bureau?
A. Oh, ves.
Q. Okay. Now, do you know what the margin
of error would be if the Census Bureau, for
instance, used a 5 percent sample?
A. No .
Q. Okay. Do you know what the margin of
error would be =
A. It would be 5 percent times the number
of people that they polled.
Q. Okay. Is that --
A. NO, 1'm Sorry. It's 5 percent within
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the results that they determined.
Q. Okay. Have you made any effort to
obtain census samples since 1980, or did you just
use the '80 and then update them with your own,
or 4id you find other census samples?
A. I used the '80 and updated it with my
own. I attempted to update the demographic --
where the blacks reside in Harris County. I%m
fairly confident that most of the precincts that
I've identified as black precincts still are
majority black precincts.
Q. Do you know what the basic interview
unit was that the census used in 1980 to get
these figures?
A. No, I don't,
QO Do you know what the census undercount
was for Harris County in 19807?
A. 1 read it one time. I'm sure 1. could
find it again if 1 had that date of hearing.
Qi Do you recall whether there was a
difference in the census undercount for blacks,
hispanics or whites in the county?
A. I recall that they differentiate what
the undercount was. Once again, I don't think
that's meant for purposes of determining which
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precincts are predominantly black.
Q. In 1980 or, in 19887
A. I don't think -- to give a full answer,
I don't think where the undercount was is
significant in determining which precincts in
1980 are significant in determining which
precincts in 1988 are predominantly black
precincts.
Q. Okay. I'm going to show you a map
that's been prepared, and that I hope you
received today by Federal Express.
MR. CLEMENTS: We did.
De (By Ms. Ifill) Is this a map of ‘Harris
County?
A. It appears to be the voting precinct map
of Harris County.
Qo. Okay.
MS. IFILL: Can we mark this as
Deposition Exhibit 3?
(WHEREUPON, the instruments referred
to by Counsel were marked for identification
Deposition Exhibit: Nos. 3 and 3A.)
Q. (By Ms. 1£i11) So Deposition Exhibits 3
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and 3A have been marked, and they appear to you
to be precinct maps for Harris County?
A. Yes, they do.
Qi Besides the indication of the precincts
and other figures that are in the key on this map,
do you see that other lines and numbers have been
drawn on this map as well?
A. 1:-do.
Q. Okay. Those lines and those numbers
indicate an example of where blacks in Harris
County ‘would, according to our experts, make up a
majority of the population, in fact, more than 65
percent of ‘the total population in each of those
counties, Okay, now you're very familiar with
where various kinds of groups live in the county.
You already testified to that. In your opinion,
just generally speaking, before we get to
specific areas, just generally speaking, does
this idea of where districts have been placed and
drawn onto this map seem to correspond to you
with where blacks live in Harris County?
MR. CLEMENTS: Excuse me a minute.
I'm going to object to asking an expert witness
before whom you have just placed work that
obviously took your expert a good deal of time
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and effort to prepare. You have placed lt in
front of him for all of 45 seconds now and asking
him to draw conclusions from it without any
opportunity to study it. He has no knowledge of
the underlying assumptions or input that your
expert made in preparing it.
And it strikes me as -- I hesitate to
use the word "unfair" because I don't think
you're an unfair person, but it's not appropriate
to ask the witness without any further
opportunity than he has had to examine and to
consider the matter to reach snap decisions,
which I would bet dollars that if you like them,
they're going to come back to haunt him at trial.
He has had no time at all to examine the
exhibit and no information, because you've
provided us with none, as to how your demographer
arrived at the data or whatever he based it on.
MS. (IFILL: Are you instructing him
not to answer any questions or --
MR. CLEMENTS: No, I'm really --
I'm appealing to you and suggesting to you that
rather than thrusting them at him and asking for
snap decisions, maybe what we ought to do is
schedule him to come back at a time when you're
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going to be back in Houston, anyway. We've got
depositions we're working on for the end of the
month, maybe we can get Judge Davidson back, and
after he's had a chance to look at them and maybe
read the deposition of your demographer as to
what he used to prepare it, and then he can give
you a thoughtful response as opposed to a kind
seat-of-the-pants judgment.
MS. IFILL: Okay. Here is my
counteroffer, although I will consider your offer.
Supposing I ask the witness -- and, in fact, I
was not intending to ask the witness specific
questions about any particular area that's been
drawn in terms of numbers or whatever -- the
first question I asked was very general, and
that's really along the lines of the kind of
questioning ‘I want to do,
He mentioned before that he had drawn
districts. I want to ask him just about the
general principles. He can choose any one of
these that he wants and look at it and tell me if
he sees those principles in terms of line drawing
or compactness, and whether he's lived in Harris
County his whole life, whether or not he can
determine that these are areas in which blacks
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live. I'm not going. to get specific about
specific districts for the very reason that
you've stated.
MR. CLEMENTS: If. that's as far as
we go --
MS, IPILL: That's as far.as 1'm
going to go.
MR. CLEMENTS: -- I think that's
appropriate. Do you feel comfortable with that?
MS. IPILL: Yes.
THE WITNESS: Could 1 have the
question itself read back?
(WHEREUPON, the requested testimony
was read back by the court reporter.)
A. The majority of the precincts in the
marked area appear to be places that in my
knowledge would be majority black.
Qe. {By Ms. Ifill) Okay. You identified
earlier principles that you're aware of, some of
which you said would be your principles and some
of which you have just heard of, in drawing
districts, We will skip population equality
because we're not talking specifically about
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figures: right now, but one of the criteria you
mentioned was geographic compactness. Now, do
you see any of the districts -- any of the
districts that you see here, are any of them in
your opinion not geographically compact?
A. Yes.
Q. Okay. Could you point to the ones that
are not geographically compact and say what the
number is on them?
A. Proposed -- District 2 as it appears on
this map --
QO. District 2, which is‘right here?
A. -- appears to be the very barbells that
I told you offended me.
QO. Okay.
A. District 9 looks like a -- looks like
the original gerrymander from Massachusetts.
Os Let's make sure we're clear that there's
a continuation here, as well, okay? Keep going.
1'm sorry to interrupt you. District: 92
A. Corrects
Q. Okay.
A. I can't see some of the dividing lines
between some of the districts. Is the line
between 13 and 12 along Reed Road?
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Q. It's my understanding that the line, 1I
believe, is like this -- although, this isn't a
good: copy 80:1 can't be sure,
A. I can't be, either. I think District 4
could probably be redrawn a little better, for
purposes of compactness. I'm a little amused by
the jutting:of Precinct 8 into the South Hampton
area. The jut-out across Main Street brings it
in -- is not geographically compact and,
obviously, it is designed for some purpose that
I'm not aware of.
Oe Okay.
A. I don't know how you propose to draw the
top Of or the northern portion of District 1,
which isn't oni the map. That's all I see offhand,
but, ‘again, you Just.put this in front of me, and
I reserve the right to change my mind after
further examination.
Q. Absolutely. The other principle you
mentioned was maintaining natural boundaries. Do
you see districts here which offend the principle
of maintaining natural boundaries, and could you
describe the natural boundary?
A. Well, first of all, the general
principle is that right now everybody in Harris
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County knows that they vote for a judge if he's
running for judge of a district court in Harris
County. That is a ‘boundary, a district, that
everybody is aware of, and I think everybody in
Harris County that .lives in a district knows
where they are. Just from my examination,
however --
1 That first one you were talking about
was just the fact that countywide is a district?
A. Yes.
Q. Okay.
A. It looks to me like you've divided the
Fifth Ward up into. four or five districts, at
least.
Q. Where is that?
A. Fifth Ward is northeast of Harris County.
It's northeast of downtown Houston. It appears
to be divided to some extent between Districts 5,
6, 7, and maybe some in 4. It's hard to tell
from this map. It appears to me that the Third
Ward is divided between District 7 and 8 and
perhaps 9, although, again, it's ‘hard to tell.
It looks to me like the Blue Ridge area
is divided between Districts 10 and 11. There's
no. -- scratch "there's no."
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You have divided the Westbury area
between District 13 and an area which is outside
of your ‘plan. You've divided the Garden Oaks
northeast -- near northwest --
0. I1'don't know what you mean when you ‘say
"an area outside of your plan."
A. An area which is not in one of your
defined districts. In other words, voting
precincts 546 and 453 are in the Westbury area.
Qe 1 got you.
A. And, again, it would seem to me to make
sense for -- if you go on the premise that you
have to elect judges from an area of less than a
county, that the people that live in the Westbury
area, for. example, should be able -- the least a
judge can do when he is running in an area is to
be: able to ‘say, I am your judge if you live in
the Westbury area, rather ‘than say, if you live
in 'votinge«precincts 19, 25, 31l.and 216, ‘1: am
your District Judge.
Q. That's almost like another principle,
then, just the familiarity of the voter with what
area he's in.
A. Well, that's part of natural boundaries,
You've crossed South Main, for example, which is
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something of a natural boundary. Yt ss inot a
natural boundary, but it's an unnatural boundary.
Q. A man-made natural boundary. Okay, go
on.
A. I mean, I could, you know, make my
criticisms of subdivisions or areas or, you know,
natural areas that you've divided; but, again,
this map was-just thrown in front of me; and I
would -- ‘and t's a poor copy at thats and I'm
teluctant to, you know, to criticize it.
Qe. 1 can see that. Okay. Are you familiar
with the term "communities of interest"?
A. Yes.
Q. Is maintaining communities of interest
or grouping together communities of interest also
a principle that you've heard of in redistricting?
A. Yes.
Qe Is: ita principle that you adhere to or
that you would try to accommodate in drawing
districts?
A. If I were drawing districts, yes.
Q. Okay. Are you familiar. with Dr. Richard
Murray?
A. Yes.
QO. How are you familiar with him?
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A. I have seen him quoted in various
newspaper articles. I have seen him preside over
an election night on one of our television
stations. I have read a couple of his -- or read
his book on Texas politics in various editions.
QO. What kind of reputation does he have in
your: opinion in Harris County?
A. Exaggerated.
Q. In what ways?
A. I think he is knowledgeable on politics.
I1think that his reputation 1s a little
overblown.
Q. Do you have any basis for that belief?
A. I know he has given advice to various
judicial candidates, and. I know that up at least
through 1985 he had never given judicial races
the kind of analysis that I have given them. I'm
not -- to my knowledge he had never examined
judicial races as a means of analyzing elections
for purposes of advice he was giving to judges.
Don't get me wrong. He's a very intelligent
person and very able in a number of areas, but
when it comes to judicial races --
Q. So you don't know of him having analyzed
any ‘judicial races, "at least, as far back as 1980.
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Is that what you're saying?
A. As of 1984"or 5, 1 don't think he had
ever used judicial races in his analyses of
voting patterns in Harris County. 1'could be
wrong, I think he did after the '86 election.
Q. Do you know how many contested judicial
seats there were in the 1988 election?
MR. CLEMENTS: From memory, how
A. 36.0r -37,-'1I think. It could be more.
It could be less.
Q. {By Ms." If211) Contested judicial
district judge seats, I'm sorry.
A Oh.
Qe I mean, 1f you want to look at yours?
A. I will be glad to look -- well, no,
those analyses only have selected races. There
were a number of --
Q. Do you need me to return that? It's
over there,
A. District ‘court races only?
Qe. Uh-huh.
A. Twenty.
Q. Okay. And do you know how many of those
races were won by Democrats?
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A. You're not counting appellate races?
Q. Huh-uh.
A. Three.
Q. Okay. And the rest were Republican?
A, Correct.
Qe. Okay. Are you aware of what percentage
or have you done an analysis of what percentage
since 1980 of white Democrats have been elected
to judicial ‘seats in Harris County?
A. No, I have not.
Q. Do you know how many black Democrats
were elected, or what percentage figure of black
Democrats were elected to judicial seats in
Harris County?
A. It wouldn't be hard for that -- you mean
what percentage?
Qe Uh-huh.
A. You mean as to those who have tried?
Are you counting primary defeats?
QO. I'm counting only general elections.
A. No, I have never done that on a
percentage basis.
Qe Okay. Now, you're not a demographer,
A. No .
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Q. What exactly are you an expert at?
A. I think 1 consider myself an expert by
virtue of education, training and experience on
the history of judicial races 'in Harris County
and analysis of judicial statistics for. judicial
races in Harris County.
OQ. Have you ever written for any
publications about the kinds of analysis of
judicial races that you have done in Harris
County?
A. I have been quoted in the Houston Post
before.
Q. Have you written for any journals or
trade magazines?
A. No, 1 have not.
Q. And you said by virtue of your education.
You majored in political science with a heavy
concentration in math. Have you studied
migration ‘at all?
A. Not in undergraduate school.
Qi Did you take graduate political science
courses?
A. 1'4id not. 1 went to law school.
Q. Have you studied demography? Did you
take courses in demography?
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A, I took a course that included some
demography of Texas.
Q. And when was this? What kind of course
was it?
A. It was a course in geography of Texas
that included -- it wasn't just the physical
geography. It included other areas of geography
as well.
OQ. And when did you take this course?
A. 1973.
OQ. While you were in school, you mean?
A, In undergraduate school, yes.
0. Okay, Okay, all right.
A. I have read extensively -- I have read --
vyeah, I'd say extensively on the areas since then.
QO. Have any of the results of your analyses
or your views about judicial elections in Harris
County been published besides the quote in the
Houston Post?
A. No .
QO. Okay. Are you familiar with the work of
Charles Westoff?
A. No .
OQ. Are you familiar with the term "racially
polarized. voting"?
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A. Yes.
QO. Okay. Can you tell me what that means?
A. That would be an indication that blacks
tend to block vote for blacks and whites tend, to
block vote for whites.
Q. Are block voting and rationally
polarized voting the same thing?
A. I think they are at least -- they're
very similar. Block. voting would probably refer
to 95.5 in percentage or 90.10. Racially
polarized means that whites vote for whites and
blacks vote for blacks or would have a tendency
in those cases to vote for them.
Q. SO you think that block voting. then is
some kind of measure of polarized voting?
A. 1: think “it's polarized voting taken to
extremes.
Ow Are you familiar with cumulative or
limited voting?
A. Yes,
Qa. Can you describe what cumulative voting
is?
A. Yes. Cumulative voting is where a
voting scheme in which you're given a number of
votes that there are positions to fill, and
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you're allowed to cast votes for an individual --
or individuals or you ‘can ‘cast all your votes for
a single individual or. .divide "your votes up as
you wish.
QO. Is cumulative voting currently practiced
in any office or any kind of race in Harris
County electorially?
A. Not to my knowledge.
Q. What about limited voting? What is
limited voting?
A. I don't know the meaning of the term
“limitedivoting." Is there another term that you
know of to define it?
Q. I can think of a general term that
includes limited and cumulative voting, but --
A. When I worked for the Texas Senate
Elections Subcommittee, I studied our state's
election codes; and I may have read it in a
statutory form; and I'm. not familiar with the
term that you're using.
Q. You said you worked on -- I think you
said -- some election laws. Did you yourself
draft election laws?
A. Yes.
Q. Okay. What election laws did you draft?
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A. Let's see. I drafted the. bill. to
require filing for ‘ballots in Texas. I drafted
the bill to require a bilingual election clerk in
certain voting precincts. I drafted the first
draft of the recountification of the election
code. It wasn't adopted until sometime after 1
left the employment of the state, and it changed
form substantially between the time I first
drafted it and the time it was finally passed,
but I1"4id that. There were other smaller bills
that I.drafted, not unlike a congressional staff
clerk would do.
Q. You also said earlier that you drew the
State Senate lines that were vetoed by the
governor in 1981?
A. I was a member of the staff that did
that. To say that I, you. know, was Davidson the
lawgiver, that actually dictated the lines, I
think, 1s not accurate.
Q. But you actually drew the other
congressional lines that you spoke of?
A. Well, I was the person that had the pen
in the hand on the Harris County congressional
lines.
MS. "IFILL: I think I don't have
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any other questions right now. Susan?
DIRECT EXAMINATION
QUESTIONS BY MS. FINKELSTEIN:
QO. I'm Susan Finkelstein. I'm an attorney
for some of the Plaintiffs in this case, the
original Plaintiffs in this case, I Just ‘have a
few questions.
A. Certainly.
Qe Could you describe ---1 wasn't: sure 1
under stood you. Did you say that when you worked
for Mr. Ogg, that part:of the time he was a state
representative ‘and part of the time he was a
senator?
A. Yes, 1 did,
Q. Could you describe the demographics of
both of the districts that he ran: 'from?
A, Okay. To be honest, I went to work for
him in July of 1982 after he had won the
Democratic primary for the State Senate seat, and
my work for him ‘was tangential, at best, during
that period of time. Generally speaking, I think
it could be described as the northern and western
part. of Harris County.
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1 OQ. What neighborhoods does that include?
2 A. We are talking about now the late '60's
3 and early '70's. It would probably include an
4 area where neighborhoods exist today that did not
5 at the time exist.
6 Q. Why don't you describe it at the time
7 that he was elected. Can you do. that?
8 A. Generally speaking, I think it came down
9 Highway 45 from the county line, from Montgomery
10 County line, generally speaking, to Buffalo Bayou,
1) and then, generally speaking, it went along
12 Buffalo Bayou to 610 and, generally speaking, out
the Southwest Freeway to the Fort Bend County
14 line. That is a very rough plan. Please
15 understand that I was in the fifth grade when
16 those lines were drawn and didn't work for him
17 extensively when that was his district.
18 Q. Generally, 1s that an Anglo area?
19 A. At the time it was drawn, I think it was
20 approximately 10-to 15 percent black. Idon't
21 know what happened to it during the decades of
22 the "60's.
23 QO How long did he run from that district?
24 A. 1 think he was first elected in 1966,
25 was reelected in '68 and Y70.
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be 1 QoQ, As a State Representative?
! 2 A. As a State Representative.
| 3 QO. Okay. And did the racial or ethnic
| 4 composition of that district change a great deal
1 5 during the time that he was elected from it? Do
6 you know?
i 7 A. 1 don't know.
| 8 Q. And how about his senatorial district?
9 A. Senatorial district, I know
4 10 substantially better. I can probably tell you
| 5 J from memory even now every single voting precinct
12 that was in it.
w 13 Qs That's okay.
} 14 A. I don't think that's what you need.
15 Generally, it was north and west of the downtown
| 16 area. It went out ‘to Addicks Dam and no further
| 17 on the west.
18 Q. And is that generally an Anglo --
| 19 A. No.
1 20 Q. What was its composition?
21 A. I can only tell you the areas that were
| 22 in. its. I never did a statistical study. Scratches
) 23 I never did a determination of the overall racial
w 24 makeup of ‘the 'population of that district. The
i 25 district generally included the Fifth ward, the
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b 1 Fourth Ward, a part of the Third Ward, included
| 2 the north side -- the near north side around Jeff
3 Davis High School. It. included all of the
i 4 Heights, part of the Garden Oaks area, Spring
1 5 Branch, the eastern part of Memorial, River Oaks
6 and Montrose and the South Hampton area and the
| 7 Greenway Plaza area. That's all 1 can remember,
I 8 OQ. Are some of those areas that you've just
9 listed mostly Black or Hispanic?
| 10 A. Yes.
| 11 Q. Which ones?
12 A. Fifth Ward, Fourth Ward, the Third ward.
| 13 Q. And that's 1+t?
| 14 A, Oh, Kashmere Gardens. That was in there.
15 Some people consider Kashmere Gardens to be a
| 16 part of the. Fifth ward.
| 17 OQ. You mentioned earlier that in 1984 you
18 of fered to help some candidates, but I think the
| 19 words that you used were that they did not think
| 20 that the help that you volunteered was
21 significant?
| 22 A. Yes.
1 23 Q. Do you know why they had that belief?
w 24 A. I.can. speculate.
| 25 Q. Would you, please?
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MR. CLEMENTS: There is no point in
speculation, I mean, if they told him anything.
A. No, they never told me, I do not want
your help, get out Of here.
MR. CLEMENTS: Anything other than
that is ‘not .redally fair .to the witness or the
candidates involved.
A. I will<tell you why some candidates
didn't. want it. If you offer to help them, they
want money. They want you to donate money tO
their campaign.
Q. (By Ms. Finkelstein) And that's the
only kind of help they want?
A.
Q.
Yes.
Earlier on, you listed some candidates
who you have helped with your analysis. If.)
read that list back: to you, could you identify
them ‘all by their races?
MR. CLEMENTS: That's already done,
I believe. No, it wasn't.
A,
Qe.
A.
Iwill be glad to.
(By Ms. Finkelstein) In 1978 John Peavy?
He 1s Black.
In: 1980 ‘Jack Smith?
He 1s White.
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Q. In 1980 -- I guess it was a senatorial
candidate.
A. 1980 Jack Ogg. He is White.
Q. Again in "82, Jack Ogg? Bill Kilgarlin?
A. He 1s White.
Qe. In 1984 Warren Hancock?
A. He is White.
Q. All Of these.right now are .'84. Charlie
Price?
A. He was White,
Q. Shelia Jackson Lee?
A. Shelia Jackson Lee is Black.
Qe. Ken Harrison?
A. He is White.
Qe. Davy Wilson?
A. He is White.
Qe. Sharolyn Wood?
A. Is White.
Q. Beginning in 1986, A.D. Azlios?
A. Hispanic.
Q. Ed “Landry?
A. He is White.
Q. Tom Sullivan?
A. He is White,
Qe Lamar McCorkle?
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A. He is White,
Q. 1988 just yourself, and you are Anglo?
A. Yes.
QoQ, You mentioned when you were discussing --
was this book Exhibit A?
MR. CLEMENTS: 1.
MS. FINKELSTEIN: 1, thank you.
Q (By Ms. Finkelstein) When you were
discussing Exhibit 1, you mentioned that you had
left some data out of this book. Do you remember?
A. No, what I said is -- there's two -- 1I'm
not sure which of the two things you're referring
to. I might have said that there were some
precincts that couldn't be analyzed for their
1984 totals because they didn't exist in 1984. I
said that there is some data that wasn't printed
in that book that the statistical conclusions in
that book are printed. Does that make sense?
Q. I think that's what 1 was asking about,
the latter part.
A. Okay.
Q. I believe that I remember you said that
that wae not =- yes, it's "this stuff that's
included on the computer disk but not printed out?
A. Right.
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QO That that wasn't necessary for your
purposes to have those data included in the
printout?
A. Correct.
Q. Why is that?
A. I don't need to have the percentages
that the 1986 candidates received if I have the
discretionary judicial voting percentages ranked
in declining order.
Q. SO you base your analysis on the rank in
declining orders and not on the strict percentage,
per se?
A. 1.40 both. And it's ranked in there
under both categories, The rankings are in
Exhibit 1, but the raw numbers are not.
Q:. Oh, so you're saying that what's missing
is the raw numbers upon which you base -- upon
which the ranking was based?
A. Right.
QO. Just briefly, could you tell me what
authors you have read in the topic of
demographics?
A. No. I have done a lot of reading over
the years. I'm reading a book right now on
demographics, but I can't tell you the authors,
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and 1 can't-tell you ithe name, I can tell you
where I bought the book.
Q. What does it discuss?
A. Various aspects of geography in Texas.
Again, economic geography, racial geography.
Q. So there are no: authors or titles ‘in the
area of demographics that stand out in your mind?
A. I have read -- I have done lots of
reading in the area. There are no authors that 1I
can recall offhand. I will be more than glad to
supplement this, if you wish, with the names of
those authors.
Qe. That's ‘fine,
FURTHER EXAMINATION
QUESTIONS BY MS. IFILL:
Q. Have you prepared any analysis of
judicial races in Harris County at the request of
Defendant Intervenor* Wood in preparation for the
trial in ‘this case?
A. No .
Q. Are you planning on analyzing any
additional races besides those that you've
testified to here and that you've presented to us
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in" preparation. for this: trial?
A. Yes.
Q. Which races are those that you're
preparing to analyze? You don't-'know? Was that
a shrug?
A. I don't know. I analyze judicial races
because I enjoy it and have for a long time
before this lawsuit was, I think, even conceived;
and I'm fairly certain that Iwill continue to do
SO.
OQ Oh, no, 1 am asking in preparation for
this trial specifically, not just in.your ‘future,
A. There is no. analysis that I:will do
specifically or have done or will do in
preparation for this trial, but ‘in all
probability between now and the time of trial, I
probably will come up with an individual area
analyses.
Q. Do you know or can you calculate in some
way what the margin of error is for the kind of
analysis that you do to try and find what the
percentage or the number of DJV's are in that
particular area?
A. It would seem to me that calculating the
number or percentage of discretionary judicial
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voters in a particular year is absolute, I can
absolutely determine how many people in a given
precinct cast a multi-party<ballot in judicial
races in Harris County.
Q. So what you're saying is that your
analysis and your opinion is devoid of a margin
of error? There is no margin of error?
A. For a predictor of future behavior or
for a measure of past behavior?
Q. Right. Well, let's take each one at a
time and start with the measure of past behavior.
A. It seems to me that it is quite accurate
for «that.
Qe. Measure Of future behavior?
A. I can't give you a percentage of margin
of error, but it would seem to me that voting
behavior alternates from one election to the next
and if there is one --
MR. CLEMENTS: When you say "there
is one," you mean there is a margin of error?
A, There is a margin of error ‘in terms of,
for example, ranking precincts, Whether there's
a high percentage of discretionary judicial
voters or a low percentage of discretionary
judiciary voters, there is some fluctuation among
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behavior of certain: precincts from one year to
the next; and so there is obviously some error
there,
Qe. (By Ms. Ifill) Is there any
publications, articles or treatises that you can
point to that describes or discusses the method
of calculating DJV's that you use, even if they
don't use the same terminology? They call it by
a different name. Is there "any article’'or —-
A. I have read one that used something of a
basis like this. Illinois or Ohio: judicial
elections, I cannot remember the name of the
article,
Q. Or the author?
A. Or the author.
Q. Do you recall when you read it or when
it was published?
A. I believe I read it in approximately
1985, 1'think it. was published in some political
science review.
Q. Are you a member of any political
science organizations?
A. No, except the Republican elected
officials in Harris County.
Q. I was referring to any academic
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political science organizations or professional
political science organizations.
A. No .
Q. Are you a member of the American Society
of Demographers or any demographic professional
organization?
A. NO .
MS. IFILL: I am finished.
FURTHER EXAMINATION
QUESTIONS BY MS. FINKELSTEIN:
Q. You just mentioned that in about 1985
you read an article that described a methodology
similar to yours. And I forgot. Have you been
doing this kind of analysis since before. then? I
know you have done it for earlier years, but was
it that article that made you do this kind of
work?
A. No. 1 was already doing. it at that time.
Q. Are you aware of any weaknesses Or
limitations in this methodology that you use?
A. You're dealing with people and their
voting patterns, and that's not an exact science,
Its primary weakness in use in a campaign is that
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you never know what the base is, what the
Republican judicial and Democratic judicial vote-
getting bases are.
De. You mean for predicting before an
election happens?
A. Predicting before an election happens
and to the extent to which it can help you win an
election. Since the vast majority of votes cast
in general elections are cast solely on the basis
Of the political party of the person running,
regardless of whether they're the incumbent,
whether they're a drooling idiot, whether they're
Black, whether they're White, whether they're
Hispanic, whether they're male or female, the
vast majority of the voters in Harris County at
least cast their judicial votes strictly on the
basis of party.
Since you don't know what the party
breakdown. i's going to come out to be on the vast
majority of the voters, regardless of the
principal weakness of all this analysis is it may
not make a difference. 1f you. go after, target
and get the vote of every single discretionary
judicial vote in Harris County, ‘it may not make a
difference.
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Q. I understand your point, but 'l guess 1
was asking a different question.
A. Then I misunderstood your question.
Q. 1 probably didn't say it.very well,
You're talking about the unpredictability of
election results that haven't yet happened. What
I was asking about is: As a method of looking at
things that already have happened, is there any
limitation or weakness in the way you do your
work?
A. Yes. You have an occasional precinct in
which somebody who was weakest in every precinct
Oriin-the vast majority . of the precincts of
Harris County may not be the weakest candidate in
that particular precinct. Itls rare, but it
happens. Example: In 1988 Mary Bacon was the
strongest Democrat in Harris County overall, by
far, and her opponent, Mark Sokolow, was the
weakest Republican ‘in Harris County by far.
There were probably some precincts in which Mark
Sokolow was not the weakest Republican. I
haven't found one, but I'm sure they're out there.
Q. And how does that limit your analysis?
A. Since I'm using the Sokolow total as the
base Republican judicial vote, since there are
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other -- since there may be in some precincts a
Republican that got fewer votes than Mark Sokolow,
the base in those precincts would be smaller.
MS. FINKELSTEIN: Thank you.
That's it.
THE WITNESS: If I can. add: :three
words, "but not appreciably."
MR. CLEMENTS: Judge Davidson, we
will have a great many questions to ask you when
the case goes to trial out in Midland, but I will
reserve our questions until that time. Thank you.
THE WITNESS
SUBSCRIBED AND SWORN to before me,
the undersigned authority, on this the day
of 710808.
Notary. Public in ‘and for
The State of Texas
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COUNTY OF HARRIS
STATE OF TEXAS
REPORTER'S CERTIFICATION
TO THE DEPOSITION OF HON. MARK DAVIDSON
TAKEN ON August 22, 1989
1, Cheryl 1L. Pierce, Certified Shorthand
Reporter in and for the State of Texas, hereby
certify that this deposition transcript is a true
record of the testimony given by the witness
named herein, after said witness was duly
sworn/affirmed by me.
I further certify that I am neither
attorney nor counsel or, related to, nor employed
by any of the parties to the action in which this
testimony was taken, Purther ‘I am not a relative
or employee of any attorney of record in this
cause, nor do I have a financial interest in the
action.
Further certification requirements
pursuant to the Rules will be certified to after
they have occurred.
SUBSCRIBED TO AND SWORN TO on this the
15th day of September, 1989.
EG
+ Plexce
Certified Shorthand Reporter
In and for the State of Texas
Certification No. 2711
Expiration Date 2/31/90
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