Redistricting Still Plagued by Confusion Article in the Congressional Quarterly
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January 10, 1981

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Case Files, Thornburg v. Gingles Working Files - Williams. Redistricting Still Plagued by Confusion Article in the Congressional Quarterly, 1981. 261a2c40-db92-ee11-be37-6045bdeb8873. LDF Archives, Thurgood Marshall Institute. https://ldfrecollection.org/archives/archives-search/archives-item/6d1c553b-9e38-4585-9bcf-63c62b5f5464/redistricting-still-plagued-by-confusion-article-in-the-congressional-quarterly. Accessed May 11, 2025.
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Politicse G, The Last Few Seats in the House If 7,300 more people had responded to the Census Bureau in Indiana Iast year, that stste would be spared a painful political decision it now faces. And New York would be an even bigger loser than it seems likely to be. Every decade, the reapportionment process produces its share of near-misses and close calls. But it never gives any state credit for "almost." For the last four decades, the 135 seats in the House of Representatives have been distributed among states by the method known as "equal pro. portions." Every state is given one seat, and then a fixed formula churns out "priority numbers" for each state to get a second seat, a third seat, and so on. The priority numbers are listed in order, and states are given seats in that order until all 435 have been distributed. This year, the last state under the wire was New York, which just missed losing six seats instead of five. Indiana just missed keeping its Ll seats, and is scheduled to drop to 10. Ironically, New York is the state making the loudest plea for an adjustment in lhe census figures. Slate officials assume any adjustment for an urban undercount would help New York more than it would help most other states. According to the Census Bureau, however, it is highly unlikely that an adjustment would give New York another seat. For that to happen, New York would have to get I large adjustment while nearly all other states received small ones. But, adds Census Bureau statistician Sam Davis, "It's hard to tell. Anything can happen." The formula works in funny ways, and even a small adjustment might be enough to shift a congressional seat from one state to another. If the adjustment is minor and evenly distributed among states, any seat changes would probably involve the states listed below. These are the five which got the last seats, and the five which just missed getting an extra seat. The last five seats went, in declining order of priority, to Kansas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Ohio, Florida and New York. The five on the "waiting list" are, in order of priority, Indiana, Ceorgia, California, Alabama, and Missouri. In that case, states will probably have to follow the process outlined in fed- eral law: Those states that have nei- ther gained nor lost House seats will elect members from the old districts: states that have gained seats will also elect members from the old districts and lill new seats in at-[arge elections; and states that have lost seats will elect their entire delegation at large. That prescription would be par- ticularly painful in the states losing seats. IL could, for instance, force an urban legislator like Rep. Benjnrr,in S. Rosenthal, D-N.Y., to grub for votes in upstate New York. But, Rosenthal. like many others, <(,ra(rl lil <crc.lts.r o^.r!atr rt<. b&rk- *-.. -.-t t -r-.h has confidence in the federal judicia- ry's ability to clear the roads in time for 1982 congressional elections. "The courts are responsible, and the courts will deal with the challenges expedi- tiously," he says. Seventeen House seats are slated to shift flrom states in the Northeast and Midwest to those in the South and West. Census Director Vincent P. Barabba says that even if the courts force an adjustment of the figures, the state-by-state distribution of seats will change by one at most, and probably not at all. (Bor, p. 7l) The result of the past decade of population changes. speculates politi- Redistrictirrg Still Plagued by Confusion The road to congressional redis- tricting remains littered with obsta- cles, despite two Supreme Court or. ders last month enabling thc Census Bureau to release its population fig- ures. There are still more than 20 court suits against the bureau, most of which demand that the national head count be adjusted for members of rui- nority groups missed by census takers. The Supreme Court resolved none of these disputes: it merely allowed the bureau to report its numbers while waiting for the outcome of the court fights. Beyond that problem lies a new round of litigation over the actual drawing of the districts. Plans for re- districting will be subject to court challenges in almost every state. Since l9?0, the Supreme Court has reaf- firmed its direction that congressional districts in a siate be as equal in pop- ulation as is "reasonably possible" -leaving districts with even the slight- est population variation open to chal- lenge. Minority groups, better organized than they were ten years agot are al- ready planning to conte3t any plan that dilutes their representation. They will find willing allies in urban po- litical lesders determined to limit the erosion of their constituencies. Com- mon Cause, the citizens' group, has also promised to enter the process in an effort to "minimize political ger- rymandering." In such an environment, delays and detours are inevitable. As an at- torney for the House Republican Re- search Committee put it, "A single federal judge can screw up the works." Painf ul Scenarios The most pessimistic prognostica- tors envision a maze of litigation pre- venting the 98th Congress from seating itself in ..lanuary of 1983. Not as farletched is the possibility that the difficult and often painful process of redrawing the nation's {35 congressional districts will not be com- pleted in time for the 1982 elections. -By Alon lglurray Jen. 10. l98l-PAGE 69 cal scientist Norman Ornstein, will be a net national loss for Democrats of three to five seats. "l don't think this is going to be as dramaric a blow to the Democrats as a lot of people think," says Ornstein. He points out that most of the states picking up new seats have state legislatures controlled by Demo- crats, and that, these legislatures will attempt to minimize Republican in. fluence when drawing new district lines. But Richard M. Scammon of the Elections Research Center says the shift of seats from Democrats to Re. publicans is not so important as that from urban areas to smaller cities and suburbs. "[f you move a seat from a big city ghetto out to the suburbs, it doesn't make any difflerence if you elect another Democrat," says Scammon. who ran the Census Bureau during the l96os. "lts the hind of Democrat you are going to elect. . , . This is going to cut back on the rep- resentation of people who have been for liberal issues." Politics - 2 In those terms, the political im- pact of this round of redistricting is likely to be large. Dozens of urban con. gressional districts have lost popula- tion in the last decade ro ourlying areas. (Box, p. 73) Slicing the Pie The Ceosus Bureau sent state population totals to President Carter on New Year's Eve, along with a cal- culation of the size of each state's new congressional delegation. (Weehly Re- port p.1) Starting in February, the bureau will begin to release much more de- tailed data, breaking down the na- tion's population. in some cases, as far as the city.block level. The bureau says it will release all Iigures by April l, if allowed by the courts. Those figures. however, will be "unadjusted." If the ruling of U.S. District Court Judge Horace Gilmore is upheld on appeal, the bureau will have to issue a whole new set of figures statistically adjusted to account lor those missed by census takers. A hear- ing on the main undercount case (CF&i lit <ff4t!&.r e^rrlAr r<. a-d-- r-k- !S - - r.-r i €d.* brought by the city of Detroit is sched- uled in the 6th Circuit Court of Ap- peals for February. The Supreme Court is likely to review the caie. "[ would think, realizing a deci. sion is so necessary . . . the courts would want to have a decision verv quickly," said Commerce Departmeni attorney Philip Freije. He said the Su- preme Court might consider the case before its summer reces{I, but could also decide to wait unril the fall ses- sion in October. A Supreme Court ruling on the Detroit case would probably resolve the adjustment controversy and elimi- nate most of the other suits against the census. lf the courts order an adjustment, however, the adjusted figures would not be available until November 1981, according to the Census Bureau -leaving little time for the difliculr pro. cess of redisficting. A Matter of Politics The redistricting process is a com- plex one. The Census Bureau's maps take up 31,715 sheets and are con- ( ( LJ.S. House Districts After lgLz r^ss. il o 8. r. 2 cori.6 r.!. rlo otr. I r0.8 l_l srerEs cArNrNc DrsrRtcrs ffi srerEs rosrNc DrsrRrcrs (Net Changes lndicated in Circles) oqS rawrr tr P.{GE ?O-.;an. 10. t98l Politics - 3 f l l t: 1970 PoP.' 3,111,351 302.583 1,775,399 1,923,322 19,971,069 2,209.596 3,O32,217 548.104 756,668 6,791.118 1,587,930 769.913 713,0r5 I l,l10,28s 5, I 95,3e2 2,825,368 2,249,O71 3,220,711 3,611,637 ' 993,722 3,923.897 5,689,170 8,881 ,826 3,806, I 03 2,216,991 1,677,623 691,109 t,485,333 1E8,738 737,681 7 ,171 ,112 I ,0 r 7,055 I 8,241 ,39 I 5,084,41 I 617,792 10,657,.123 2,559,163 2,09r,533 I 1,800,766 919,723 2,seo,713 666,257 3,926,018 I l,l 98,655 |,059,273 114,732 1,651 ,448 3,113,244 1,7!1,237 1,lt7,821 332,4 | 6 t980 PoP.' 3.890.06r 400,48 I 2,717,866 2,285,51 3 23,668,562 2.888.831 3,107,576 595,225 637,651 9,739,992 5,161,265 965,000 9.3,935 I I ,41 8,461 5,190,179 2,913,387 2,363,208 3,661,433 1,203,972 1,121,660 .,216,4a6 5,737,037 9,258,311 1,077,118 2,520,638 1,917,111 786,690 1,570,006 799,181 920,6 r 0 7.364,158 1,299,968 t7,557,288 5,874,429 652,695 10/97,119 3,025,266 2,632,663 tt,866,728 917,151 3, t 19,208 690, I 78 1,590,750 11,228,383 1,161,037 5l 1,,t56 5,316,279 4.1 30, 1 63 | ,919 ,611 4,705,335 r70,816 203,302,031 226.501,825 tl'i(urr arc the R*rdcna [\ry,ulolion (erclud,tn! qili3343 fj1'jn4 trt'gr' vost ltr l97tt. t97! oppttrtutnmenl l o.r hasvd tn iivurn u hrch tncluded : ia t ztnx lrc nt ot'ars"oi. ! filurer are lhc dpp.rli.nmeat populalion lrr ll#,t. Thre do not I 1.4 435 435 iaclude citi :eat ldr,,nr ole.redr. I Tht Dntnct fi Columbn is not included in delerainatna ol ap' frttioQm(^1. ' Trildl clqulatirn lor lgill ond l9!0 includct lh. Dirttict ol Columbia. State Population Totals, House Seat Changes Alobomo Alorko Arirono Arkonror Coli[ornio Colorodo Connccticut Dcloworc Dirtrict of Columbio' Florido Gcorgio Howoii ldoho lllinoir lndiono lowo Konror Kenlucky Louiriono Mqinc Morylond Mossochorcllr Michigon Minncrolo Misirrippi Misrouri Monlono Nabrorko Nevodo Ncw Hompshire Ncw Jcncy Ncw Mcrico Ncw York Norlh Coroliaq North Dokoto Ohio Oklohomo Orcgon Pcnnrylvonio Rhode lrlond Soulh Corolino South Dokolo Tennerrcc Tcxor Uroh Vcrmonl Virginio Wo:hington Weri Virginio Wircon:in Wyoming Unilcd Slotcr' lc Chongr 12.9 32.4 53. I 18.8 18.5 30.7 2.5 8.'6 - 15.7 43..1 19. I 25.3 32.1 2.8 5.7 3.1 5. I r 3.7 r 5.3 13.2 7,5 0.8 a.2 7.'l 13.7 5.1 13.3 5.7 63.5 24.8 2.7 27.8 - 3.8 15.5 5.6 1.3 18.2 25.9 0.6 - 0.3 20.1 3.6 16.9 27.1 37.9 t 5.0 14.9 2l .0 l t.8 6.5 4t.6 1972 Horrro Scslr 7 I 1 1 a3 5 6 I t5 l0 2 2 21 II 6 5 7 8 2 8 t2 l9 8 5 l0 2 3 I 2 l5 2 39 II I 23 6 1 25 2 6 2 8 24 2 I IO 7 a 9 I 1982 Hour Srofr 7 I 5 1 {t 6 6 I t9 t0 2 2 22 l0 6 5 7 8 2 8 ll l8 .8 5 9 2 3 2 2 l4 3 34 ll I 21 6 5 23 2 6 I 9 27 3 I l0 8 1 9 I I 980 Scot Chongcr 0 0 +l 0 +2 +l o 0 +t 0 0 0 -I 0 0 0 0 0 0 -l -l 0 0 -l o 0 +l 0 -l +l -5 0 0 -2 0 +1 -2 0 0 -l +l +3 +l 0 0 +l 0 0 0 CFtCrr rrr CCqlSr AJ.alaitt nr< bdE r€ F....r ar di-.1-. Jan. 10. t98l-P.{CE 7l Politics . 4 sidered unwieldy by many states. Texa.q alone is spread across more than 2,000 Census map sheets. Additional data must also be acquired - not just the census tigures, but a variety of demographic and political data to be used in drawing the districts. The most difficult part of the pro- ce3s, however, is political. Although some states have bipartisan or pur- portedly non-partisan commissions to redraw state lines, final control is in the hands of state legislatures in at least 41 states, and every redistricting srgument is the source of endless fac- tional bickering. A nationwide Republican cam- paign to win new statehouses in prep- aration for the critical redistricting pmrcess had little success in the No- vember elections. Democrats still con- trcl 28 of the nation's state legisla. tures, while the Republicans hold only half as many. Republicans, however, are already hard at work forming coalitions to pro- tect their interests when the new lines are drawn. Highly sophisticated com- puters and computer programs will make the technical aspects of redis- tricting easier this time around to per- form, according to Warren Glimpse, a private redistricting consultant. That advanced technology, horvever, may also make the political part of the process more complicated. For example, more detailed and accessible census data will make it easier to look at the distribution of minorities in districts. Census Bureau figures wiil give separate counts for whites, blacks, Asians, American In- dians, Hispanics and others. That data, in turn, is certain to lead to more disputes and more court, cases concerning minority representa- tion. The courts have clearly prohib- ited rndenflonol discrimination when dspwing districts. And for regions that are covered by the Voting Rights Act of 1965, they have also prohibited drawing districts that have lhe effect of diluting minority voting strength. Computer districting may also give new meaning to the Supreme Court's "one man, one vote" rulings, which requirc congressional districts within a state to be as equal in pop- ulation as is "reasonably possihle." Computers make it possible to draw districts with virtually no variation in population size. Districts drawn to such strict standards o{'equality, how- ever, are more likelv to ignore existing population boundaries, such as county or precinct lines. PAGE 72-.ran. 10. l98l Consultant Clirnpse suspects that partisan squabbling will also be more bitter as a result of computer services. Using data on the voting histories of different areas, political parties will be able to discern with much more precision how a change in district lines could affeet them. They may, as a re- sult, debate over every line and corner on the district maps. The greatest redistricting prob- lems are likely to occur in states slated to lose House seats. Incumbent rep- resentatives will be calling on their friends in the state legislatures to pro- tect their districts, and debates over which districts are to be split apart will be heated. New York faces the stickiest task in that respect. The state will lose five seats - more than any state has lost in a single census during this century - and it is under t,he control of a split legislature. The state Senate is dominated by Republicans, while the Assembly is Democratic. New York has one of the most advanced redistricting computer set- ups in the nation - "a 'Star lVars' system." according to one consultant. But as state redistricting adviser Carl Carlucci points out, "computers don't make policy." Political powers will battle each other lor primacy, and those battles are likely to be more messy and time-consuming than in the past. Undercount. . . or Overcount? If the courts uphold Judge Gilmore's order to adjust the census count, census statisticians will have to deal with two large problems. First, testimony in .Judge Gilmore's court last fall dealt largely with the 1970 census, in which the bureau's own research indicated cen. sus takers missed 2.5 percent of the population. More importantly, the bu- reau estimated it missed 7.7 percent of the nation's blacks, compared to only 1.9 percent of its whites. Census demographers arrived at their esti- mates of the l9?0 undercount bv matching the head count againsi birth. death. illedicare and immigra. tion records and other demographic data. But the 1980 census unexpectedlv turned (,ut to be slightly higher r-han the most reeenl estimate of the na- tion's population derived from demo- graphic records, suggesting an appar- enl t)Ltercount rathcr than an under. count. Bureau officials are not suggesting cor(rr tnr (o.6.a$g^r o..tttr ( f*trr.rr'l*--*--F.q t-E-.* their census takers counted more peo. ple than actually exist. But Census Director Barabba says the discrepancy is strong evidence against the court suits claiming an un- der.count. Demographers at the Census Bu- reau believe there is a hole in the de. mographic estimsting technique. The estimates do not record illegal aliens. If illegal immigrants participared in record numben during the actual cen- sus - and the Census Bureau spent thousands of do[ars last year to en- courage them to do just that - they could have canceled out an under- count among legal residents. The bu- reau might. in other words, have missed several million legal residents but made up for it in the narional totals by counting roughly the same number of new illegal aliens. The Census Bureau has no way of knowing how 65py illegal aliens participated in its count. But without such knowledge, any demographic at. tempt to estimate an undercount is questionable. The bureau's technicians are toy- ing with another method of calculating the undercount. That method com- pares the census totals to population estimates based on an intensive ran- dom sample of the population. But George Hall, the bureau's associate di- reclor for demographic fields, says Census demographers are even less comfortable with that method of es- timation. The bottom line, says Hall. is that "we do not know how to measure the undercount." But, he adds, if the courts say to adjust, the bureau will adjust. The second problem with under- count adjustment would arise when the undercount is distributed among specific localities. Judge Gilmore directed the bu- reau to adjust its figures at the "na- tional, state and sub-state" levels. Ac- cording to Hall. that means that where states require block-by-block ligures, each block will have to be adjusred for an undercount. If it uses the "synthetic method" o[ adjustment discussed during the court hearing. the bureau will deter- mine the rate at which each popu- lation group was undercountcC nation. ally and then adjust the count lbr that group by the same percentage in each locality. For instance, if the nationr+'ide undercount of black females. age !5 to 35, was live percent. then one blirck '\. s female of that age would be added to every 20 included in a local count. The validity ol that method of ad- justment declines with the size of the locality, statisticians say, and at the block level becomes absurd. Carl Carlucci of New York spec' ulates ihat if an adjustment is finally ordered, it will occur onlv at the state level lor the purposes of determining the number ,rf seats ,{iven each state. Separare. unadjusted figures would co-ut lil cclr(atlB.( cp..tlnt !t< a-*E r-H- -* r - Pqtt *d.h Polirig - 5 then be used tor drawing districts. "lt would be tricky," he says, "but do- able." .luclge Gilmore's otder. how- ever, clearly requires "sub-state" ad- justment, so that decision remains in the hands of the courts. I Districts With Maior Population Shifts 25 Top Population tosers l9to PoP.' 238,9.8 245,502 317,112 35r,t73 3{8,488 3se,550 361,881 36.,933 36,.,650 361,998 377,8t2 3E7,576 390,a 15 389,486 390,.16 .o3,067 4 r 8,082 396, I 25 395,632 392.278 39e,526 rl9,70l .13,622 .o5,7& 127,8U 25 Top Population Gainers l9ro PoP.' 869,295 863,07r 865,345 867,537 828,4 I 4 775,421 721,710 712,157 707,622 706,184 &2,120 695,671 659,O77 650,558 677.O11 673,917 653,33. 626,910 6.0,515 620,76e 650,637 371,O87 653,008 7.O, I 88 6.3,3 t 3 1970 Pop. 147.582 465,O76 $7,726 .68.056 $2,581 167,759 .67,735 146,876 161,283 .62,]'31 .62,480 170,537 172.O11 170,267 467,636 478,3 l0 .91.693 ta?,t 68 165,990 .l5O,3lO 467,157 187,832 .79,280 u7,5t4 .r90,851 I 970 PoP. 152.848 452,965 461,325 .t66,336 152,t70 &5,254 1].3,573 1,l.3,201 152,O76 166.707 112,O24 $6,256 113,1t7 l1t,738 166,753 466,565 157,217 .39,399 151,776 1 2,589 161.o28 107,791 r66,359 529.688 162.610 Prcrnt Choagr -48.9 -38.6 - 32.1 - 25.0 -?1.7 -23.1 -22.5 -2 r.8 -2r.5 - 2l.l - 18.3 -17.6 -r7.3 -17.2 - t6.5 - 15.7 - 15.5 -r5.2 -15.1 - 14.8 -ta.5 - 1..0 -13.7 - r3.2 - t2.8 P.r(.nl Chongr +92.0 +90.5 +86..1 +86.0 +83.2 +67.0 +62.7 +60.8 +56.5 +51.3 +49.8 +19.2 +18.7 + 17.3 +45. t + 11.1 + 42.9 +12.7 +4t.8 +40.3 + 10.2 +40.0 + 40.0 +39.7 +39. I Oirrrict Nrw YorL 2l (South Eronr) Mi<higon 13 (Oownlovn Derroit) Nev Yorl 12 (Noahrc:t Broollya) Mirrcuri I (Norrh St. Lovir) Ohio 2l (Clcvrlond - Eoo) Ncw Yorl 37 ('i/cl - Suffolo) Nrw York ll (Noahrrn Eroollyn) Nrv York l9 (Monhonon - Horl:m) lllircir 7 (Chicogo - Warr Sidr| lllinoir I (Chicogo - South Side) Ohio 2O (Wert ond Crnrrol Clcvrlond) Pcnnrylvonio lr (Pinrburgh) Pannsylvonio 3 (Ccnrrol Philodclphio) Prnnrylvonio 2 (Wert Philodclphio) Michigon I (Norrh C.nlrcl OGroil) Pcnnrylvonio I (Philodrlphio - routh) flnnora 8 (Mcmphir) Michigon l6 (Soulh Ortroit, Oaorborn) lllinoi: 5 (Chicogo - crntrol) Xantucly 3 (touirvillc ond ruburb:) Misouri 5 (Konror City) Morylond 7 (Eolrimorc - w.rl, (?nltol) ,frlinn.sto 5 (Minncopolir) Mi*ouri 3 (South St. Louir, ruburbr) MorTlond 3 (8oltimor'rcuth ond orl, ruburbr)' Mikulrli-O Dirlrict lncurnbrol Florido l0 (Foa Picrca, Foa Mycn) 8o{olir'R Florido 5 (Clcoruoler, Orlondo) McCollum'R Colitornio 43 (Son Dirgo orm) Strgrncr'R fcxor 7 (Noahwot Horrir Counly) Archr'R Florido I I (wr!l Polm B.o(h) Mko-O Colilornio {O (Southcrn Oronga County) Bodhom'R Arizono 4 (Noah Phocnir, Sconrdolo) Rudd.R Arirono 3 (W"rlern Phocnir, Yumo) Slunp-O Floddo t (Doyrono Bcoch) Choppcll.O frxor 22 (Southern Horrir Counry) Poul.R Colorqdo .l (North - Fod Collinr) Srown'R Tuor 3 (Nonh Crnrrol Oollor) Collinr'R Arirono 2 (South - fucron) Udoll'O Colorodo 5 (Colorodo Springr) (romrr'R lcror 2l (Sovth Crntrol - Son Antonio) lorfflrr'R feror 2 (Eorf - Oronge) Wikor0 Gorgio 9 (Noahco:l - Goincrvillc) JcnLin:'D Colorodo 2 (Ocnvcr ruburbr, Eouldcr) Wirrh'O tlorido 8 ([okalcnd, Sororoto) lrolond'O Arizono | (Southarn Phoenir, Mcro) Rhodo'R Colilornio t (Norih - Chico) Choppic'R Howoii 2 (Honolulu ruburbr, Outcr lrlondr) Alolo'O Tcror 15 (South - Brownrvrllc) dt lo Gorro'O Uloh I (Eor, - Ogdcn, Provo) Hoaron'R Colilorrio 37 (Son Scrnordino. Rivcnidc cou.ri.t) 1._ir.R 'trdtrq figv,.r lacrrmb.0t Gcrcia.O Crockrn-O Chirholm-O Cloy-O Srol..-o NoroL-O Richmond-O RonEal-O Collin*O Worhington-O Oolor-O Coyn+O lrdrrur-O Groy.O Conyrrr.O Foglieno-O Ford-O Oingcll-D torT-O Morzoli-O Eollinq-O A,lilthcll-O Sobo-O Grphordt-O Jan. 10, lg8t-PAGE ?3