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Case Files, Thornburg v. Gingles Working Files - Guinier. Affidavit of Bernard Grofman, 1982. d1c24cd8-db92-ee11-be37-6045bdeb8873. LDF Archives, Thurgood Marshall Institute. https://ldfrecollection.org/archives/archives-search/archives-item/f0935077-8f61-4be0-8f84-533e473aeb60/affidavit-of-bernard-grofman. Accessed April 06, 2025.
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JOHN S. CAFTOLL 649-0 905 Einancial Plaza Honolu1u, Hawaii 96813 Telephonez 32L-5027 EZRA, OTCONIIOR, MOON S IAWEN At,torneys at Law A Law Corporation DAVID A. EZRA 1232-0 MICSiEL F. O'CONNOa 1098-0 Suite 2800, Grosvenor Center 737 Bishop Street Eonolulu, Eawaii 96813 Telephone: 531-7534 AttorneyE for Plaintiffs A. n ATFIDAVIT OF BERNARD GROF!.TAIT STATE OF tsAWAII ) ) CITY AIID COUNTY OE EONOLULU ) sgr */;1,1,:ff:1,-, IN TBE UNITED STATES FOR TUE DISTRICI DISTRICT COURT OF HAWAII { AFAIDAVIS OE'BERNiRD clgEYlY, Ex$rBI8g r0r ANQ'Ei BERIIARD GROF!{AI{, being fj.rst duly sworn, deposee and says: l. fhat he has been retained by Plaintiffs Travis, et aI. as an expert witness i.n Civil No. 8l-0433. 2. That Affiant has reviewed the docr.uents, testimony and pleadings in this case and hag prepared the report attached as Exhibit "A". 3. That attached to this affidavit as E:&lbit 'B' ls Aff,iantrs current curriculum vitae. Further Aff,lant sayeth not. . CRAIG TRAVIS, EAITB EVN{S, CARIT{EN tsOSTTCK, GEORGE STARBUCK, LES SKILIINGS, IAURA BOLLES and DAI/E ELLIS Plalntiff,e, and ALICE SCOTT, ArINE f . LEE .Dd REODA MII.I.ER, Plaint,lffs ln Intervention, v. irEAlI KING, Lieutenant @vernos of, tbe State ot Enwalll RUBEII P. IIAI.IARI DATFDT Eongluru, Bawall, l'boln * '--, 1983, I a Subscrlbed and sworn to before pe this /t day ot Ha -/, 19fl3, OF $ERVI9E ATTACHED Fy eemnfr?lon irplrctr ?/p/ra '9ERT|FICATE REPORT REGARDING THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF IIIE SIATE LEGISIAIM REAPPOBTIONI'IENT PLAIIS PROPOSED By tHE EAitArI BEAPPORIIONI{EN8 CO!{UISSTON, SEPIEI,IBER 28, t98l - TPROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND Professor Bernard Grofman ls a nationally and lnternatlonally known specialist 1n representation and re- districtlng ts6ues, who is author of nearly a dozen articles on this toptc over the last decade and senior editor (along with Arned Ltjphart, Professor of Political Science and former chalman, Department of Political Science, university of California, San Diego, *ob"ra !{cKay, Director, Institute for Judicial Adrnlnlst,ration, and Professor of, Lawr New York Unlverstt,y; and lloward Scarrow, Professor of PoIi'tical Science and forrrer chairman, DePartment of Polltical Science, State Untversity of New. York at St,ony Brook) of a. special issue of the PoIicv S.tudies Journal, (April l98l) on 'Reapgor- tlonment Policyr and of a sympostun volume on Reoreser.rtation and Redistrictinc Issueg, Bostons Lexington Books, APril 1982 forthcoming. The conference which generaced thqse edited collectiona was Jointly funded by the National Science Foun- dation, Program ln Polltica1 Science, and the Anerican Bar Associatlon, on grants on whlch Professor Grofman iras the Principal Investigator. Ee has also received other najor funding fron the Natlonal Science Eoundation to study repre- rontaElon lgeuesr 'ElecBotal Sy3tcol l{bat, Dlflsrcnc. Doca Bernard Grofman, Ph.D.' Professor of Political Science School of, Soclal Sciencee Universlty of Callfornla, Irvlnc Iwlne, Callfornla 92717 llarctr 15, I 982 Exblblt 'A' -t- t tl.k.?' xsE soc 77-22a7a. 19?8-79, .nd rR.search on potltl- ootllllE at G.ra:dandering' llSB SES 8l-0755a, t98l-82. In addr,tion t. Ona far3on, one vole standarda ol toPul.llon Equ.Iltlt c 13 lha prlnclpal org.nlrar of I Speclrl Scaslon on rtha t. tntroductlon and Case Rcvle{ ollllcrl Cona.guancaa o! Elcctoral Lrwarr at th€ Inter- 8. aa{alt is Not ln CotrPllance t,lth 'O'nc Parson, Ona . ltlon.l Pol,ltlcrl 5c1enc6 A3socl.tiont6 Erl6nnl.l rc€tlng, voter Slandardg 1o d. itanolro, lugus! 9-17, 1982, .nd la th. co-chrlr C, Imploprlely of Use o! Reglsler€d vol.r-Biaa-Ratho! lhan census o! Cillzan PoPu}.tlon in 19E05 larall e3lgnata ol lha lDarlcan Polltlcsl Sclence tssocl.tlorr a Redlslrlctlng onfaronca Croui, on e€praa€nlatlon and Elactoral SystenB. Ee tt. Bias in Elactlon Outcom€s- and gsa o! ltultttretrbcr-- Dialr1cls as a llech.nt3o lor gnconatlt{tlonal Dllullon 'E alto salv.d .a t conaultan! !o the Ancrlcan Bar Assocla- o! [inorlly vollng Rlghtt ionrt 'olEnrttre oo Electlon La"n'l h's been lnvorvod ln a l' :nlEoductlon onalrltattva EoI€ ln ravcrat raDEasertatlon or EadlstElctlnE Er Cas. Sevles 53u.3, inc:,udlng E.lom ot !h. lfr.sru County (U.v IoEh) C, Is .n Intent test Requtrad? csisr.!ui., crncr,nn.lr, cb.!r.r r.!oa, .nr coisr.s.ronrr r il:$i::".:i: H::*:i?:1,3::i'l!iirillEEiii; *i adlatalctlnE La Color.d,c. vota Dllulion in 8ax.it l. volc Dllution 2. con6trlinls on potlElc.I cotp.tlllon Aggrivat.d by ltultlrie[b.r Dlstricla r t"' g::ili:1:iffnatttv o! n.ll.lt'!' tesr Lest't'tlv' . t. Overvler B' Ccn't'l'!rtto[ ot tDDloDEi'l' !tr'di" -3- raa -2- One Person, One vote Standards of Populatlon Equallty A. Introduction In Baker v. Carrr 369 U.s.186 (1962), the U. S. suPreme Court afflrrned that Judicial redress could be souqht' Eo eompel a state to reapportlon lts legislature ln accord wlth nee cengug data. In a number Of subseguent cases, the court addressed ltsel! to the lssue of voEer representatlon and the constitutlonal accePtabtllty of various apportlonment and votirig schenes. Most of those cases involved an expllcation of the meaning of the l{th tunendment 'equal protection' clause as tt applled to Congresslonal, state, and local apportionment issues. The notion of 'egual Protectlon' suggests varlous crit,eria which we might wish any electoral schene to sat'lsfy. At minimumr of course, rre would wish to guarantee each citizen the right to exercise his vote.. Iloweverr once we move beyond thls basic r19ht, the guestion of what'equa1 prot,ectlon'requtres (or rather, dlsallows) becomes a very difflcult one. one answer ls that each tndlvldual who votes should have hts vote count requallyr with that cast by each other individual, 1.e., glven 'one persoor oll€ vote' we wish 'one vote, one valuet (Professor of Law, CarI Auerbachr 'The Reapportlonnent RevoluElon' ln phtltp Kurland (Ed. ), The suprene court Revleur chlcago: unlversl,ty of chlcago Pro8s, 1954, pp. 1-87). The dlfflculty comes ln operatlonallzing such a criterion. In @, 376 U.s. I (195{), a case which struck down ag unconstitutlonal gross population disparities among Georgia Congressional districts, the U. S. SuPreme Court (376 U.S. at 8) held that'(O)ne man's vote. is to be worth . . . as much as anotherrs.r In @!|5g$!g, 377 U.S. 533 (1954)r itDd its companion cases, the Court extended this .One person, one vote' doctrine to state legis- latures holdtng, tn diflerenE but equivalent, language (3?7 U.S. at 558), that'(A)n individualrs rlght to vote f,or state leglslators lE unconstitutionally impaired when its weight, is tn a subst,antlal fashion diluted when cornpared with votes of citlzens living in other parts of the sEate.' In Aven' v' ltidrand countv, 390 u.s. 474 (1968), the court extinded the scope of its rullngs'down to the local level for units with .general responsibitity.. Afl these cases inctuaea plurality elections with slngle-menber districts in whlch there were Iarge differences in the distrlct populat'lons. In Revnolds v. Sins the Court asserted that Ehe'egual protectlon, clause of the U. S. Constitution did not require precise numerical equality but 'honest and good faith effort to construct dlstricts . . . as nearly of equal populatlon as 1s practlcable.r The Revnolds decision acknouledged the poss.ibillty of considerations other than strict populatlon eguallBy cntertng lnco apporgiontrenE decietons. -a\ -{- -5- So long as the divergences from a strict population standard are based on tegltimate considerations incident to the effectuation of a ratlonal state policy, some devlations from the egual population principle are constitutionally permisslble (377 U.s. ar 579). Eosever, whlle Revnolds ldentlfled some areas where Etates night rrlsh to act, e.9., 'to naintaln the lntegrtty of various polltical subdivtsions, lnsofar as Posslble, and provide for compact dlstricts of contiguous terrltoryr 1377 u,S. at 578), as Lawrence Tribe, Professor of Law at Harvard Lan Sihool, notesl the Court was 'quick to ll.mit the range of acceptable Justlfications for deviatlon from the egual populatlon ruler (Tribe, Constitutional Law, 19782745-7471. In subseguent declsiong the Court has reiterated the need for very strlct populat,lon eguality 1n Congressional districting decisions. ISee esp. Kirkpatrick v. Preisler; 394 U.S.'526 ( I 959) , rhere the Court reJected as unconstit,utional a distrlctlng rith an average devlatlon of .J{5 percent from st,rict egua),ity. . In that case, the largest district exceeded the ideal of, perfect distrlct populatlon equality by 2.43 percent, the snallest, distri,ct was below the ldeal by 1.7 percent for a 'range' of 4.13 percent.l While the Court has allosed for somewhat greater flexibttlty ln state and local districtsing decislons than ln Congresstonal dtstricting Isee esp. Mahan v. Eowell, 410 U.S. 315 (1973)r tod Abate v. $]!r 403 U.S. 182 (1971), where ranges of 15.4 percent and ll,9 percang, respcctlv.ly, uere permittedl, !g@@II (a vlrginia case) is the only state legislatlve case in uhich the range of deviatlon permitted exceeded l0 percent. In @@!g!! where a range in excess of l0 Percent was permitted, rJustice Rehnquistrs majority opinion suggests Ehat the majority Percelved circumstances of that case as a quite unusual and possibly unigue situatlon, where the vlrginia constltutlon vests local potitical subdivlslon ' boundaries with a leglslatlve significance which ls substantlve as well as historlcal and which does not apply in most statesr [P.8. Burker D. A. Epstein, and S. A. Alito, .gederal case Law: state LegislaEive and congressional Distrlctlng', ln A. l{olloch (Ed.), Reapport,ionnent: Lae' and Technoloqv, Denver: National Councll of St'ate Legislatures, June 1980, pp. l7-lql. Moreover !n 1981 when a three-Judge U. S. District court consldered Virglniar s proPosed 1980 house redistricting, its range oE 26 Percent uas held to be beyond the pernlssible .one-person, one vote' linits (cosner v. Dalton, Civ. 81-O492OR), and the State legislature of Virginla was ordered to redraw house lines. The nen plan has an overall, population range of only 5.25 percent. (The PIan provides for 95 single-member districts and one five-menber district.in Norfolk. A severabllity clause has been included ln the bllt for the flve seals in Norfolk in the event, that Ebc iluettc€ DePartllent undeE the VoBlng BighBs Act preclear- -6- -7- n ance proviEion) falls to accePt the multlmember district. ) In adoptlng t,his plan, the Assembly Parted with Vlrginia's tradition of, not crosslng Potitical subdlvislon boundaries. t{e might also note that a North Carollna state constltutlonal provlslon, prohibiting crossing of county boundarles ln Iegislative reapportionment, waE struck down by thE Justice Department early ln December 1981. 'One Pe Table I I show che population range results ln each of Ehe states which had completed state legislatlve distrtctlng by Sebruary 161 1982, for rhich I could obtain the data. It is apparent fron this table that the ranges in both houses of the Eawati leglslature, but especlally in the Senate are grossly out of tlne with those ln other staEes. Slnce a U. S. District Court tn l98t struck donn a populatlon range of 26 percent ln Virglnla the state 1n whlch the. U. S. Supreme Court had hithertofore recognized the grealest need for deviatlons fron strict population standards in St'ate legislative dlstrlcting -- and the Eawall electoral ranges ln the Senate exceed that Permttted Virglnla tn Mahan v. Howell, and in the Eouse are wel,l tn excess of the 10t norn -- it seems obvioue that Bawaitra leglslative redistrictlng .1s violatlve of 'one Person, one vot6' standards as Ehose have been enunciated by th. g. S. Suprlnc Courtr .end should bc declared unconeEttuBtonal. Partlat List of st,ates !{hich have Completsd Scate Legislative Redistricting as of BebruarY 16, 1982 Alabama: plans Etill under Voting Rtght, Act challenge Alaska Ar izona Arkansas: ftrst plans rejected bY U. S. Distrtct aE violatlve of one person, one vot,e standard (DarIin v. while) Californiar plans under referendum chal lenge Colorado: challenges to reaPportion- nent commlssion plans stlll pending Connecticut: under court, challenge Georgia (Department of Justice haE inrerposed vorlng Rights Act objectlon 2/221 llawai i Illinois: plans affirmed, in U. S. District Court and allowed to stand, U. S. Supreme Court refused to hear appeal Indiana: suit pending challenging use of nnds l}1!!3g$!Q! Conference, et aI. v. Rober D. Orr) Iowa Klnrag | _ , -9- Senate Overal, I Ranqe ? . 9.77 5.0 8.75 {.0 ? 3.92 9.99 tl3. I 8 t .59 House OveraI I Ranqe nnds 3.6 .98 No 9.99. Ies 5.0 Y€s (Boqse only) 9.15 Yes (Bouse only) ?N9 8.3,1 No 9.92 . Yes (gouse only) 16.02. Yes 1.97 les (Eouse only) 3. 87 0 .l t[7 6.5 {. ,l 0 .27 9.9 Yes (Bouse onIY) NO NO B. Bawail I s -8- labl.e I ( continued ) Senate llouse Overall OveralI Ranqe Ranqe 8.{ 9.55 ? 9.3 -- 9.{3 -- 8.1 8 9.70 7 .70 7.70 9.8{ 9.67 9.46 9.93 5 .50 3.73 ? I 2.49 r .56 s .23 10. 55 6.9 mmds No No No lee (SenatE onIY) Yes (Bouse only) st,aggered terlog Loul s i ana t{issouri: not, lully conpleted Nebraska (Untcaneral) Nevada Neu Jersey Ne,, lteiico: pendtng challenge to 8n apportionment based on 'ellglble' voEers North Carolina: new plans introduced after Justtce DepamonE objections to tlrst proposala North Dakoca Oklahona oregon: pendlng court challenge Pennsylvanla south Dakota'(challenge to nnds pending) Tennessec Utah Vi rg lnla Washington a. Sources: 'Eeapportionment Infor:nation Updatel' a nonthly joint publlcation of the Natlonal Conf,erence o( Stagc Leglr- lature3 and Ehe Councll of sEaee Governnentg the calculatlons of total range for Eauaii are from data presented in the September 28, 1981, Report of lhe Eawaii Reapportionment Comnisslon, pp. 36, 38. The range for the llouse is 8.28 (the greatest negative deviatton--Kauai) plus 7.74 (the great,est posit,tve deviation--distrlct 23 on Oahu) - I 6.02. The range f or t,he Senat,e ls 8.30 ( the greatest nega- tlve deviaEion--Oahu, dlst,rict 6) plus 3tl .88 (the great,est Posl!lve devlation--Kauai) . {3.18. The Reapportionment Commission suggests that the data from House and Senate should be combined, ind presents a Eable (p. 38a) which purportedly reflects t,his calculation. The data ln the t,able ls supposed to buttress assertions that basic lsland underrepresentatlon in one House of the Eawaii leglslature ls compensated for by comparable overrepresenta- tion ln the other house. Sowever, the method of calculation ln this tabl,e is mistaken, even lhough t,his method is used by a U.S. State District Court ln Burns v. Gill, 316 F. Supp 1235 at 1297 (1970i, since state senators and stat,e represen- tativeE are weighted equal.Iy. Appropriat,e calculations which do not nix apples and oranges (see Reapportionnent Corurission RePort Tables, p.35, p.38) show that Easal1 is over- represented in both Bouse and Senate seats (-3.90 percent deviation f,ron statewide average for the Senate and a -2.30 P€rcant dcvlatlon frou the stat,ewldo average for the Hous€) i 9.65 Yes 9.93 Ies 10.98 No 5.3{ No ,? NO t 2.49 Yes 3.1,1 No 7.8 No 5.2{ Yes 6.9 yes ( Ilouse only) -10- - ll - 'rfriie Kauairs relatlvely sllght (8.28 percent) overrepresen- tation at the Bouse level does not comPensate for its gross underrepresentatlon at the Senate level (34.88 percent,). SiniIarly, }{au1r9 6.1 average percent overrePresenEation ln ilouse seats does not compensate for lts 15.07 pereent average underrepresenEation in the Senate. Analogous, though lese dranatic, resul.ts obtain for Oahu. . In drawlng lts legisl,at,lve naps the Eawail Reapportion- :Bent Comrnission used registered voters rather than census population or (estlmated) citizen population as lts basls for assessing populatlon eguality acrosE distrlcts. As the U. S. Supreme Court nade clear in @, 38tl U.S. 73 at 90-93 (1955), Eawalirs reglstered voters basls, depending in part upon political actlvtty and chance factors 1s not Itself a permisslble population baser but may be used so lonq as it oroduces a distributlon of leqislators not siqnifi- cantlv different from .that whlch would result from use of a oer:uissible populatlon base. Such pernissible bases would f,or Hawalt either be census populatlon or cittzen populatlon with the latter preferred (Burns v. Richardson, 38,1 u.S. 73 at, 93-95). while a registered voter standard was accePted on an inBeriu baslg tn 1966, ghac wa8 so glX because tha U. S. Dtst,rlct @uEt conclud€d that u3. ol rcgtsEeE.al votor standard substantially approximated that nbich would have occurred had state citizen population been the guide. In the Suprene Court's own words (at 93 emphasis ours),'In view of these consideratlons, we hold that the Present aPPortionment satisfies the Egual Protection Clause gla because on this record it raE found t,o have produced a distribution of Ieglslators not substantially different from that nbich eould have resulted from the use of a permissible population base.' The 1981 Hawall Reapportionnent Comrnission did not seek to deternine a'citizen population estlmater' lnstead they generated an estimate of eliglble civilian voters and assert (p. 19 of their September 28, 1981 report) that, while the senate reapportionments would have been unchanged .had an eliglble cttizen base rather than a registered voter base been used, the Eouse aPPortionnenEs would have changed, but these changes are labeled as 'a slight dtfference 'in the dlstribution' 1p. l9). ' There are two key problens here. Pirst, as lnspection.of Eheir own table (bottom of p. l9) shousl use of an estimated eligible voter (civlllan population) standard rather than a reglstered voters basis, would have affected 5 of the 5t seats; roughly l2t of all the seats. Horeover, the rePresen- tatlon of Maui nould have decreased 20t (fron 5 to it), the representaglon of Kaual would have decraased 33.3t (fron 3 to 2) .nd tho rcarecentatlon o! oahu could have lncreased moroorietv of Use of Reqistered Voter st rr. ct 1n -72- - t3 - roughly 5t from 3? to 39. The descriptlon of these changes by the Reapportion,nent Commission as a'slight dlfference ln the distribution' ls clearly erroneous. Thus, 1f eligible voters 1g taken to be a permlssible populatlon basls, then the use by the Bawali Reapportionment Corunlssion of regls- te(ed voters as a surrogate for a permissible populallon basis fallE to meet the substantial concordance guidelines of Burns v. Rlchardsonr lnd should be struck down as unconstltu- tional. (Of course, the same basis of assessment for aPPor- tionment must be used for both houses of a state legialature. Bence, lt would be trnproper to use a registered voters basis for the Senate and a dlfterent, nore eul,table, basls for the Eouse. ) Second, lt ls far fron clear that ellgible voters (espe- ciaIIy as thls basis tras estinated by the Reapportlonment Commission, with lts peculiar treatment, of Armed Eorces Per- sonnel) is a perinissible populat,ion basts under t,he Burns v. Richardson guldeltnesr since nlnorlty population may have a different age mix and thus be dlscrlminated against 1f only .potential voters and not aI1 citizens are counted. If e1igl- ble voters ls held to not be a permlEsible populatlon basis, tben the cornmission has failed to dernonstrate concordance of registered v6ter apportlonnents wtth those of a permissible population basig, in violaEton o! Ehe Burns v. Richardson requlreneng that they do 8o. thugr ln thls case, Eoor use of a registered voter basis for apportionnent, muet be declared unconsti t,utional. llhtle Hawatl has distinctive charactertstlcs which sutr port use of ciLizen resident basisl use of a reglstered voter basis, when 1t glves results different from a permissible apportionment basls, has the conseguence of denying full represenEation to eEhnic minoritles (and other ninorities, e.g. the aged) whose voter registration is lorr. this is. constitutionally impermlssible, as welI as a vi,olation of uinority rights under the voting Rights ect in the section of the state which lE covered by that Act. Andrew Masonrs study "Oahu Legislative Districts, 1981, Analysis of Reapportionment Plan of the 1981 ReaPPorEionnrent Commisslon of llawall [dated January 29, 1982 -- Defendant's Exhibit 1 (Mason) I makes clear t,haE if perrnissible population basls is defined on a' civilian basis excluding aII military and their dipendents, thenr under the most ionservative estlnates possible of malapportionment, 'It 1s Iikely that ten of oahurs 20 disErict legislatlve districts dlffer from each other by 20t or nore' (Page following Table l, no Page nunber). These devtationsl comlng wlthin a single island, are far ln excess of nhat 1s congt,it,utionally penaissible under u.s. one person, one vote standards. t{ason al,so calcrilates the estlnated devlatlone of Oahurs dlstricts fron ldeal (equal rePBasenEatton Per populacion) slze tl se take - l{ - -t5- I. the pernissible populatlon basis to be all civilians plus 15t of the military and thelr dependents. Again, his conclusion 1s that 'it 1s likely that ten of, oahurE 20 legislatlve districts dlffer fron each other by at least 20tr. The exact ligures whlch underlle thege calculattons are specifled by l{ason ln hlg Table l. Bias in Electlon Outcomes and Use of Multlnember DtstrictE a Mechanism for unconstitutlonal Dilution of Vottng Rights A. Introduction At, the aggregate level, for partlsan electlons, l, along with a number of, other poliElcal science experts on redls- tricting (e.9., Richard Niemi, Chairman of the Polltical Science Department, Untversity of Rochesteri and Charles Backstrom, Professor of Political Science, Untversity of l.linnesota) belleve that a major goal of any districtlng system is that i,t not be biased against any one or t,he other of our two maJor partles. This criterion has been termed 'neut,rality'by R. Nleni and J. Deegan in their 1978 article in the American Political Science Review on the nature of redistrictlng. iy neutrality rre mean that both parties should have to poll approxlmately the same proportlon of the votes in order to sin a gtven proportion of the seats. Note thats the trajority rule prlnctple ls subsumed ln the prlnciple of neutrallty. Any tuo-party systen rrhich sattsfles neutra- Itcy vttl, necesgarlly givc a votlng naJortty at leaeE a bare najorlty of legislative seats. why should one Party have to poll 55t of the state vote in order to win a majority of the Iegislature, while the other party has to pol1 onlyl saY, {8t? Why should a party be denied najority control of the legislature if it polls a maJorlty of the vote? Anyone, or any group, whlch designs a districting systen which achieves these results -- €v€n lf the system is the product oE well intentioned, blindfolded nonpartisans -- has designed a system which has achieved the very opposlte of falr and effective representation. The late Robert Dixon, the leading U.S. expert on realF portlonment,, argued, and I agree, lhac ue should avoid A districting process which can be characterized by either one of two extremes--the extreme of partisan lust or Ehe extreme of leoislative maps dragn bv blindfolded cartoqraohers. (See Dixonr s posthunously. published essay in Grofman, et, a1. , 1982.) Rath.er, we should see the districtlng Process as one in which we try to realize certain articulaced values, recog- nizing that some of these values are nutually incomPatible in uhole or in part, and that tradeoffs are reguired. (See especiallyr Nieni and Deeganr l9?8.) There are no 'neutral' choices among the great variety of available redistrictors options. rWhether the lineE are drawn by a ninth-grade civlcs clasE, a board of Ph.D.rs or a comPuter, every llne on . atP allgns partisans and tnteresE blocs ln a ParBlcular - t5 - -17- UIY, are nn ' and electlon results wtll vary according to whlch lines chosen. While 'partisan lustr ia clearly lnpermissible, g!g!g consideratlon of the probable partisan (and also racial,/ 1 inguistic) inrplications of alternatlve dist,rictlng schemes 1s, in tny view, desirable. Of course, drawing the line between permisslble and lmpermissible'politlcal' considera- Eions in the districting process is not easy. But we should note that the Supreme Court has clearly lndicated in Gaffnev v. Curmninqs that taking lnto account the expected partisan 'impact, of a dlstrlctlng scheme as one of the factors ln chooE- ing among alcernative schemes 1s not prohiblted, and indeed, in lhe case of impacc on racial/li,nguistic rePresentatlonr anticipation of probable conseguences for ninority rePresenta- tion has been held to be necessary for Jurlsdictlone covbred by the voting Rights Act. Moreover, in tlawail, the provtsion of the Bawail Constilu- tion, Article VIr'section 5, No. 2 requirlng thaE no dlstrlct be drawn so aE to unduly favor a person or polltical factlon implies, tt, seens to.'me, that the Reapportionment, Conmisston and this court nust concern themselves wit,h the antlctpated conseguencea of the proposed redistricting proposals, lest inadvert,ent undue discrirninatton agalnst minorlties (esPecial- 1y gartisan ninortties) occur, especially since such discrini- natlon is oade nore llkely by use of oulEl-aenber dlgtrtcts. As I read the report of the Bawaii ReaPportionment Comnission, it does not seem to me thaE the corunission Paid adeguate attention to the probabte conseguences of lls redistricting proposals for politlcal party represenEation. I In Particu- Iar, in Oahu, t,he decislon implicitly ratifled by the Comnis- sion when it adopted a scheme which reduced expected Dernocrat- lc ltouse representatiOn by one and expected Republican Eouse representation by on€1 1{8s completely arbitrary and rested on no analysis whatsoever of changing patterns of partisan suEF port. This decision also falled to recognize the unequal and dlscrimlnatory lmpact a one seat reduction tdlll have on the much smaller representation basts of the Party wlth feser representat lves. B. The constitutionality of t{u}tiple-Hember Elections: case Apportlonment echefies at the staE,e and local levEl often make use of multlmenber districts, the Polar typ'5 of nhich ls, of course, the at-Iarge election. Such plans tyPically allocate the nunber of rePresentatives Eo a dlstrict tn dlrect proportton to that districtrs populaElon. In the lAfternatlvelyr it may be the case that majority of th9 Commissionr s- members trere aware of the probable inpact of t,heir proposals on Republican rePres-entatio-n - in oahu and Democralii representation in Hawaii and intended those conse- quences. t im not in a positlon to directly evaluate the issue of the varloue comnisston nenberr s lnteng. It ls the ef lects o! ghe CouigsLonr s ProPoeals cith which I aE concorned. ! \ - l8 - -19- aftermath of the suPreme Courtr E entrance into the 'polltical Eicket' of reapportionmen!, the constitutionality of multi- nember districts has been challenged on several grounds. Firstr and most lmportantlyl multlnember districts often act so as to subnerge political (or other) minorities. The 'winnetr-take-all' character of t,he typical election gcheme create8 the strong possibility that, a specific naJority will elect atl the rePresentatives fron a multlmember dlEtrictl rrhereas the outvoted minorlt,y mlgtrt have been able to elect sone representatives if t,he multimember district had been broken donn lnto several slngle-menber diEtrictsr especially if nlnorlty strength le geographlcally concentrated. Two probable consequences of such submergenee are reduced turnout anong voters in the (partisan) ninorityl and even more inportantlyT reduced competitlveness of the pollttcal process. (Eor denonstraElon of how thls latter phenomena nanifests ltself in Bawallr see Sectlon II-D below.) A second (and closely related) challenge against multt- nember dlstrlcts ls based on the propensity of rePresenta- tives from such districts to act as a bloc. Chosen from the same constlt,uency, alrrost certalnly o€ the same party, the identlty of interests among such representatlves could be expected to be greacer than those choEen from dlstinct dis- trictlr and thue they aight noc tully uirror the vierrs ol all r\ the citizens in the dlstrict (espectally those ln the overall votlng mi.norlty) . A third (and related) problen wtth multimenber districts ls lhat they often lead to the electlon of rePresentatlves who are not broadly geographically rePresentalive of Ehe area which they are supposed to rePresent. Frequentfy, in uulti- member districts, many or all of the rePresentatives sill reside wlthin a narrob, geographic area, unless lhere ls rule reguirtng geographic designated represent,atives. (Eor evidence which clearly substanEiateg thls argument as tt applies to Eawall, see DePositlon No. 2. l{arch 15, 1982, by Reapportlonment Connission member James ltaIlr and Exhibit t2O.) We might note that, unlike Eawaii, seven states have designaEed seat provisions for their multimember districts, so. as to lnsure that rePresentatives come from each najor geographic area within'the larger districE. A fourth argument against nultimember districts is that the tie between a representaclve and his constituency is weakened when a voter d6es nog have a single rePresentative to regard as 'his own.' Sunrey data for llawaii directly verifylng this argunent are found ln Exhibit 126 1pp. 2-3) to James sai:.tE second Deposltlon, March 15, 1982- The exhibit reflects evidence conpiled by a Denocratic State Senator. (Algo sco Jerrell, 1982, forthcorolngT lor further evidentiary -20- -21 - A n support of thls argument, based on Eurveys of state 1e91s1a- tors from states other than tlawail.) A fifth argument against multimember districts ts that' they signlficanEly lncrease the cost of campaigning by re- quirlng canpaigning among a much larger electorate. This will often work to dlscourage minortty candldates. (See Jewellr lgS2r.forthcoming, for data bearing on lhis point from a nunber of states.) Data from Eawaiian sIn91e and multlmernber' electlong, whlch substantiites this argunent against, multiroenber districts, ts found in lhe transcripts of testimony taken by the llawaii ReapporEionnenE Commission (see e.9. remarks by Representative Toguchl) i and a comPlete body of evidence for Earrail legislatlve electlon drawn from actual campaign expendlture records, is found in Exhlblt t27 ln Deposltion No. 2, t{arch 15, 1982, by Janes HaIlr' a Reapportionment Conunission member. This data suPPorts the basic polnt that multimenber campalgns are considerably more costly than those for elngle rnember districts and thug nultimember distrlcts will act to discourage candidates, especially less wealthy oo€s1 from runnlng for office. I have tabulated the data ln Exhiblt 27 deating with campalgn costs lor winners of the 1980 general elections for the Eawai,i Eouse. Ihe data came fron the llawali staEe campalgn Spendlng Conolsslon' In 1980, Bhe nedlan canPalgn expendl- ture ln Ehe general elecElon lor rePresengattvee electcd fEoE f) single-member districts uas S8r989; while the nedian campaign expenditure in the general electlon for representatives elected from multimember districts was between Sll,473 and S11r749. Thus, in 1980, nultimember campaignE sere roughly 27t more costly than single-menber campaignsl and Ehis corr parison actually understates the difference in campaign costs between slngle-member and multirnember Eaces, since a greater proportion of the multimember campaigns were uncontested or not fully contested, Ieaving candidates in turn littIe incen- tive to engage ln campaign expenditures. I toight also note that in Exhiblt 25r Senator Carpenter Presents data on 197{ and 1976 campalgns which shot, thal (for the winners) nulti- nember campalgns in those years nere 50t Bore exPensive than single-member canpaigns. A sixth accusatlon agalnst multimember distrlcts is based on a mathematlcal argument advanced by ,John Banzhaf (1955) which shows that, resldent,s of smaller districts .t" being denied equal representation because resldents 1n the larger dlstrlcts who are electing rePresentatlves proportional to their numbers have a more than proportlonate chance of af- fecting election outcomes. (This issue and the rlathematics underlying this argument are discussed at length in Grofnan and Scarrow, 'l 98'l , and Grofnan t 981b. ) None of these argunents were menEloned tn the ftrst o! Ehe posE-EgESI caEea challenglng nulElnenber districts, -23--22- Portson v. Dorsev, 379 U.S. 433 (1965). Rather, in t,hat case, the complaint was that voters tn the Georgia legisla- turets single-member districts could elect thelr own rePre-. sentatlvesi whlle voters, in the multlmember dtstricts (who elected representatives at large but with the candidates required to be residenEs of a subdistrict, 'dith each subdis- trict allocated exactly only one rePresentative) rrere, 1t was proposedl being denied thelr own representativer since voters from outside the subdlstrict helPed to choose the subdls- trict's rePresentatlve. rThe Court upheld Georgiars dls- tricting system, concluding that voters ln multirnenber dis- t,ricEs did indeed elect their orrn rePresenEatives the representatives of the 99, rather than of t,he subdistrlct ln rhich they happened to reslder (lrlber 197827521 emphasls ours) In Fortsonr 3Tg U.S.,t33, the U. S. Supreme Court held (as 1t had in Revnolds at 5771 that'egual protection does not necessarily reguire format,lon of alI single-menber districEs in a statet s legislative aPportionment scheme.' the Court asserted in Fortson 0 379 U.S. at {39, (emPhasis ourE) t,hat, 'the legislaEive choice of multinenber districts ls subJect to constltutional challenge only uPon a showing that the plan was deslqned to or would operate to minimize or cancel out the voting strength of racial or political grouPgr' a come up on this issue, surqE !,_BiS!-e!0gon, 384 U.S. 7'l at 89 (1965), a case dealing with State legislatlve disEricting tn Eawai i . The challenge to a nultimember aPPortionment scheme in the next major case tn thls area, Whitcomb v. Chavisr 403 U.S. 124 (19?l), rested on two gulte distinct bases. The first tdas t,he assertion that the ttarion County district 'tllegally minimizes and cancels out the voEing power of a cognlzable racial mlnorlty in Uarion Countyr ({03 U.s. at 144). this cl6irn was rejected by the Court on the grounds of an lnadeguaEe showing aE to the facts. The second was the claim (based on the argument in Eanzhafr 1965; see Lucas, 1974 and Grofman 1981b) that 'voting PoHer does not.vary lnversely with the size of the dlstrtct and that to increase legislattve seats ln proportion to lncreased population gives undue votlng power to lhe voter tn the multimenber district since he has more chances to deternine electlon out'comes than does the voter in the single-menber district' (403 U.S. aB I 441{5) . ThiE second argument uas also rejected by the Supreme Court. However, ln Whitcomb the court, continued to assert that the const,itutlonallty of multinenber districting could be challenged on a case-by-case basis. In llhite v. Reqester, 412 U.S. 766 (1973), the U. S. Suprene Courc tound that nultloember districts, as designed and oP€raEed ln Bexar County, Tera8r invldiouely excluded l2s: /,.1 -2t- blacks and ltexican-Americans from political partlclpation, and that single-member distri,cts t ere reguired to remedy the eEfects on past and present discrimination against blacks and i{e:lcanAmerlcans. In Whlte the Court lived uP to tts promise ln g!!9! and &|Egq that a properly mounted challenqe to multimenber districting, when suetained by an evidentlal baee couldr ln factr succeed. In aubsequent cases, some apportionments whlch make use of at-large elections or multimenber districts have been struck down as unconstit,utional by the federal courtsi but the courts have r€lterated that mulEimember districts are not per E unconstltutional. Eowever, the Supreme Court [ln Connors v. {chnson' 402 u.s. 5eo (1971) and S!3!manv Me:!sl, 420 U.s. I (l975)lhasindicatedapresumptionagainst.s9@ nultirnember district plans tn the absence of exigent ciicunt- stances' (tribe 1978: 755, emphasis ours); whlle the voting Rights Act has, since the early 1970s, been so consErued by t,he Justlce Department as to virtually ban a Jurtsdiction covered by the Act from replaclng sing1e-nember districts t lt,h nultlmember ones (se€ Grofman, 1981a, for further details). In state legislatures, multimenber districts are becornlng less common as their nany disadvantageE colse t,o be reallzed. Por eraruplel ln state lower (upPer) houses ln 1968, 65t ({5t) used Eone uultinenber di6trict6, but by 1978, only {0t (26t) dld so. (Bcrr7 and Dycl 19791 86-87). BY 1980, Eh. Perc€ng- ages were further reduced to 38t for state lower houses and 22t for state upper houses. In 1981, the American Bar Associ- ation adopted a resolution urging thaE pure single-menber districtlng be adopted in both housee of alI state leg!sla- tives. (This reEolution is included as an exhlbit to Jatres Eall's March 15, 1982 DePosition.) In remarks before the 1981 Reapportionment Cotttutission, Mondayr July 6t 1981, Corunlssion Chairman Ruben P. !'lallari addressed the lssue of the relative desirability of single- member v. multimember districts. Be provides a long Para- phrase of polnts made in an artlcle by Professor Joseph F. zimmerman of the Graduate school of Public Affairs of the state universlty of, New York in A).bany (National civic Review, Vol. ?0, No.5 (Hay 1981), pp.255-259) purporting to show the flaws in slngle-nembeE dtstricttng. I aur quite farniliar rrtt,h Professor ZinnermanrE work and have read the cited artlcle as well as other work (including some as yet unpubllshed re- search) by Professor zimmerman. l{hil,e the paraghrases fron the }Is article are accurate, the naterial is taken out of context ln such a rray as to suggese Professor Zinnernan t,as asserting that multiroenber diEtrlct plurality elections sere free of'the defecBa engnerated lOr single-roenber dlsgrict -26- -27- plurality electlons. Actually, Professor Zimmermanrs chief point ln thls article ls an argument on behalf of the alterna- tive voter, a single member district scheme used ln Australla, nhlch modlfles the usual single- menber district electione to requlre voters to rank order alI candidates, and requires a raajortcy rather than plurallty vote. with one except,ton the alleged claim that multimenber districts generate a'nlder'perspectlve as compared to a more local- istic viewpoint for representatives from sin9le-member dis- tricts (a point thri force of which ln ttawali ls vlttated by the fact that, representat,lves from multimember dlstricts often are concentrated ln a small geographlc part of the wider unlE they represent, and llay thus be Iike1y to rePresent the 'local' concerns of their geographic area as agalnst the wider vieus of t,he entlre dlstrict) -- each of the other points made by Professor Zirunerman against, slngle-member plurality elec- tlons in his NCR article applies with egual or greater force to multimember plurality electiong. For examPle, a multi- nember district plurality systen, even more than a elngle- menber dlstricl syst'em 'disenfranchises citizens .to a large extent, and also dilutes the voters' influence on a governlng body ln direct relation to its increaslng size.r (ExcerPt from zirunerman quote polnt b, 9.2, JuIy 6. l98l ninutes of the Reapportionment Commission. ) Similarly, in a multimenber plurality systelo even more than in a single-nember district plurallly system, it may happen that 'In partisan elections, the most poorly qualified candidate can defeat the best quali- fied candidate of each of the smaller Party.' (ExcerPL fron Zimmernan quote, Polnt c, p.3, July 6, l98l ninutes of the ReapportionmenE commlsslon. ) Finally, in a mix of single and a mul.timember pluraltty districtsT €v€B more so Ehan in a straight single-member district system, 'resuits.... can be deliberately dlstorted to tavor the controlling Party or grouP (gerrymanderlng).' (ExcerPt from Zimherman quote, polnt d, p. 3, JuIy 5, '1981 minutes of, Ehe Reapportionnent commission.) whlIe it is certainly true, as l{r. t{al1arl Points out (cotr rnission minutes, July 6, 1981, P. 3) that 'no systero has a monopoly on aII the defects tn the electoral processr' as my discussion above has I believe made clear, schemei involving multimember dlstricts (and I might add, especially ones nhich mlx single-menber and multlmember distrlcts of various sizesr particularly when aggravated in their egregious inpact on mlnority represencatlon by the use of staggered elections, as in the Eawaii Senace), have both gs..@, and @ defects Ehan does einple atngle-oenbet disEricging done in a lalr dnd neugral faehlon. ^ tlhe alt,ernaclve vote, often also known as the preferential vote, is a speclal case of the Eare slngle transferable vote electlon Eethod -- a scheae for proPorttonal rePresentation. -28- -29- /\ Three argumenEs tn favor of multimember districts given by Ruben i{allarlr Commission Chairmanr in his January 7, 1982 deposltlon are also aL best only partly substanElated, esPe- cially given Ehe .ctual way the Commission did its redistrict- ing. Pirstr whlle the use of multinember dtstrlcts to avoid disruption of communlty lines ts reasonable, the Commisslon actually used nultimember districts in ways whlch dlsrupted a nunber of natural communiEies, as is made clear in the variouE unanimous comnunlcations from the Island Advisory Counclls (and in nlnority views of the Oahu Council representattves). Por detailsr see varlous exhlblts to Eall Deposition No. 2, l{arch 15, 1982. Second, ur. Mallari said the CommisElon sought to avotd the posslbility of lrrational dlstrlct Ilnes by using.multl- member distrlct.s. Here againl t,his is a Perfectly reasonable stance, in principle, but does not aPPear io have been fully carried oug in practice -- as the strong complaints from the varlous Island Advisory Counclls and other concerned citlzens, rhlch we alluded to'above, make very clear. Third, Hr. Mallarl said t,he ComnisElon used multlmember distrlcts to protect agalnst vtolent population shifts. If a large geographlc area ls unlformly belng subJect to an ln-(or out-) ulgration ehlch would dramattcally change lts populatlon baser gben ghe cllcct wtll be ag narked (ln teros of dsvlatlon fron the ideat population Per rePresentative) regardless of whether the area is divided up into slngle member districts or ls one Iarge mul,timemer district. Multimember districts do have an advantage when they atre used to combine areas nith expected declining PoPulat,ton with areas of expected increas- ing populatlon so as to yietd a district erhich will not deviate much from expected statewide poPulatlon changes over Ehe course of the next decade. However, as I read the Colr misEion September 28, l98l Report, this rationale of cornbining declining and growlng areas aPpears to aPPIy to onl'y a handful of the nultimember districts created by the Comroission. The Commisslon certainly did noc systematlcally seek to project population trendE throughout the various preclncts ln Ehe S t ate. C. Is an Intent Test Required? contrary to popular bellef, qerrl11aqde! !y-l!E-Ehepg. Cartography ls not whaE deternines a gerr)rmander. One can have a gerrymander rrith d istricts which appear on sight to be htghly regular and fair district- ing schenes which may appear to the eye Eo contain grossly gerrlnnandered dtstricts. What defines a gerrymander is the fact that some group or groups (e.9. r a given Polltical Party or a given racial/Ilnguistic Aroup) is discrirainated aqainst aorpared go one or nore other grouP8 ln that a greater nuaber a -30- - 3l - n of votes is needed for the former to achleve a given propor- tion of legislative seats than 1s true for the latter, and this blas ls not one which can be attributed soIely to the dtlferlng degree of geographlc concentration among the grouPs. In generalr tt is my view thaE, rrhen Ehe lmpact of a districtlng scheme (or electlon system) can be projected (or judged ln retrosPect) with a very high degree of certalnty, schemes which can be shoen to be grossly discriminat,ory ln Eheir impact on the rePresentation of cognlzable grouPs beyond Hhat might be exPected by chance, should be struck down as unconstitutional. t do not believe that schemes which canrt be direcqly shown to have been lglggiggl}I gerrymandered can therefore be made inviolable lo constitutlonal challenge. In this context it, ls useful to conslder the Supreme Courtrs comment ln the 1973 case of @ i{12 U.S. 735 at 752-753, emphasis added). case which reached the u. S. Court of Appeals, Eifth Circuit, wedge-shaped single-menber districts which cut up the black populatlon so as to deprive then of majority control of any district were rejected as discriminatory even though direct discriminat,ory lntent lras not proved. SimilarIy, in anoEher Eifth Circuit Court case, Nevitt v. Sides (1978), 571 E. 2d aE 221r that, court held that a plan 'racially neutral at its adoption. may be unconstltutional 1f lt furthers preexisting discriminatlon or ts used to 'naintain' it. It iE sometimes asserted that lhe l98O case, lrlobile v' BoIden established direct proof of lntent as necessary to invalidate any plan alleged to dllute the voting scrength of a racial or part,lsan ninority. (This was the lnterPretation I made in my own flrst reading of this case in 1981.) uore careful reading and consultat,ion wlth other constituEional experts had led me to be convinced thls is too slnPlistic a reading of the complex, confused, nulti-oplnloned, and far from definltive ruling in Mobile. First, Mobile does not overturn earlier cases such as White v. Reqester. All that, there ts a clear majority hold- lng on in Mobil.e is that the criEeria for establishing the unconstitutionality o! multimember districts enunciated by the Bifth circuit in zinmer v. McKeithen are not sufficient. Second, as Burke, Epsteln, and Alito (1980:29) Point ouB, Moblle tnvolved a Coranlsslon tom of governnent utrich ningles It may be suggest,ed that those who redistrict and reapportion sfrould work with census, not political data and achieve population eguality without, regard for polit,ical impact. But this politically mj.ndl.ess alprogch may fro-auce, -wfret@ @rossly gerryrnande-d resurtsi and, ln any eventr it, is mosE unlikely that the politi- cal impact of such a plan would renain undis- covered- by the time it rras proposed or adopted, E shich event the results would be both known and, I roight also note that in Kirksev v. Board of supervlsors o! Elnd Countv; uississippt (197?)r 5{4 F.2d 139, a 197? -32- -33- leglslative and administratlve functton, and 'as a dlrect precedent for multimember state leglslative dlstricts, the Uobile case may wel,I be irrelevant." lhlrd, ln Cltv of Rome, Georqia v. united States, 100 S Ct. l5/t8 (1980), a case declded by Ehe supreme Court on the same day as I@!I9,, a change of election system whlch introduced runoffsr numbered posts, and staggered electlons ras held to violate the Voting Rights Act even though no lntent to discriminate was proved. Eourth, in an earlier case dealing wi.th racial dlscrlmi- 'natlon, Villace of Arlinqton Heiqhts, 429 U.S. at 241-242, the Supreme Court has endorsed what has been calIed the 'egreglous impact' doctrine. This ls the view that when the inpact of a law has a sufficiently disproportlonate lmpact on one group, that, egregioue tmpact may constttute piima Eacle evidence for intentional discrlminat,ion. Fifth, the Justlce Department ln an amicus brlef, to an important, challenge to a multimember districting scheme now pendlng ln the U. S. Supreme Court, Roqers v. Lodqe (SIip tto. 8O-l2OO, October l98b), has offered the doctrine, based on that in Kirksevr that'where a planr though ltse1f neutral, carriee fonrard int,entlonal and purposef u1 discrininatory denial of accesa that ls already in effectr lt ls not constltutional.' This 'remedy' doctrine holds t,hat present tntant to dlscrinlnate need nog be proved wtrerc Aurposolul and intentional discrlmination already exists which trould be perpetuated into the fuEure by othemise'neut,ral' official action. FlnaIIyr and we believe most tmportantlyl as the Suprene court asserted in Gaffnev at, 752-753, enphasis ours (see full quote above), if a plan exhibits gross gerrlrmandering 'it is most unlikely that Ehe.polit,ical impact of such a plan would remain undiscovered by the time it, was proposed or ado-oted, in which event the'results woufd be both known, and if not chanqed, intended. r Thus, if Hawaii I s overreliance on multi-mernber dlstricts can be shown lo constitute aad/or PerPeEuate gross politlcal gerrynandering so aE to effectively and significantly dilute the voting strength of partisan minorities, then I believe that the supreme courtrs ruling in Mobile provides no barriers to declaring such egreglous gerr'mandering unconstltutional on lts faCi, since suchegregiousgerrlrmanderingwouldprovideadeguateevidence of lnEent. In the uordg of Ralph Waldo Emerson, 'Some clrcumstantial evtdence is better than others, as when you flnd a trout, in your milk.- lhe discussion above refers to standards of egual protection under the g:L constitution. Even if it were held that proof of intent to discrininate was required under the U.S. Constitution, the Bawati ConstiEuEion, Article IV, sectlon 6r No. 2 provides that rNo dlstrlct sball be so drasn an -3{- -35- as to unduly favor a Person or political factlon', and thus establishes an reff,ects testi as sufficient under Hawaii glggg law. Thusr lf it can be shown that whlch I belleve to be the case (see Section II-D below), to wit, that the lmpact of the ReaPPortlonment Commisslonrg proposed mix of eingle and nultinenber distrlcts (of varlous sizes) will be to unduly favor a partlcular political party comPared lrith whag night be expected under single member distrlcts, then I belleve that such disErlcts should be Etruck down as ln violation of Article VI, Section 6, No. 2 of the Eawall Constlt,ution, independent of any Judgments on the merit,s ot Eederal'equal Prot,ectlont argunents. In Burns v. Richardson, Ehe Court said (at 88) that 'the demonstration that, a parEicular multimember qcheme effects an invidlous result fiust apPear from evldence i'n the record. that denonstration was not made here.' The Court speciflcal- 1y rejected conjecture as t,o the effects of a multlmember district syst,em and demanded a speciflc evidentlary record. until the presen! case, such an evidenttary record has never been presented to a federal court in a natter lnvolving sub- aergence of oartisan Dinorlties, although such documentatlon bas been offcrcd (and ln Dany case8 .ccePted) ln naEters of racial vote-riilution (see case revierr above). Thus, the pending Iltigatlon challenglng the progosed flawai i State legislatlve redistrictlng will ber as far as I an arrare, the first case in which a Federal court has recelved a challenge to the constitutionallt,y of a mixed single and nultimenber district scheme based (at least in part) on @!g!!g as to the effects of that Particular scheme on submergence of partisan minorlty rlghts, and as co lhe claim of denial to partisan minorltles of full access to the political system. In testimony by James EalI (DePosition uo. 2, March 15, 1982) submitted to District Court by attorneys for Plaintiffs Travis, et 61. r t{r. tlall, a menber of the Commission who dissented from its ftnal rePort, specifies in considerable detail the probable lmpact of the proposed multi-nerier dlstrlctlngs in both Eouse and Senate on the representation of Republican voters. Wbile, my orrn independent, analysis has led me to beli'eve that, the use of multi-nenber districts will substantially dilute Republican voting strengEh (by submerg- lng Republlcan voters in multi-menber districts uhich are predominantly Denocratlc) for llaui, Kauai (the llouse only) and Oahul lhe linchpin of the argument for the egregious lmpact of multl-menber distrlcts on minority representation is, in ny vi6w, Oahu (espEcially the Bouse distrlcts) r since the estl,mated effects on the other islands, though Present, are o! a nuch les'ser nagnitude, because these islands have n- Mult imember -35- -37- ,^f'\- considerably fewer leglslative representatives than does Oahu. Using dat,a on the Carter-Reagan (and also Carter-Pord) lac€r l,lr. EaIlr ln hls depoEitlon and accompanying exhlbitsr identifles the areas of Republtcan votlng strength2 on Oahu and denonstrates how that, strengt,h ls substantially submerged ln the Comnlsslonr s proposed multimember plan, such that probable Republlcan Senate representatlon on Oahu would be reduced by two (from the seven anEicipated under the Commis- sion plan as compared to t,he nine that could be anticipated under the sort of slngle-menber distrl.ct plan whlch would not subnerge Republlcan voting strength and which would satisfy bot,h U.S. and tlawail Constttuttonal guideltnes) I while Repub- lican llouse representatton on Oahu woul.d be reduced by as nuch as five or slx (from the nlne anticlpated under the Com- nisEion plan as compared to the 14 or 15 anticipated under the sort of singLe-menber district plan which would not subnerge Republican voting strength and which would also saEtsfy U.S. 2Using two-party vote share in Presidential races as a basis for judging Republlcan,/Democratic strength in llawaii seens guite reasonable, since t.he many uncontested (or not fully contested) state legislative races in the multi-member districts would reduce the apparent nagnituCe of Republican voting strength, and party registration figures are well known co be an unreliable guide to voters' partisan at,t,i- tudes, especially with an ever lncreasing portion of the electorat,e opt,ing for the label of independent, even though actually leanlng Borc to ons party than anoEher. and llawaii constitutional guidelines). Clearly, such sizeable dilutions of minoriEy voting strenglh constitute egregious gerrymandering, whether consciously intended or not. lhe l3 official state maps of t,he preclnct boundaries for Oahu (Ha1l l{arch 15, 1982 Deposition, Exhibits l8A-l8l{), have been colored in by Ball to indicate vtsually areas of Repub- lican and Democratlc st,rength (the deeper the blue, the more Republlcan; the deeper the red, the more Democrat,ic). Hr. HalI uses these maps to show the dilution of Republican voting strength caused by multimenber districts in ttre previous dis- trlctlng -- and also discusses how that discrimination trill be prepetuated (and in some cases intensified) under the ReaP- portlonment Commisslon plans which continue almost exclusive use of multimember districts. In his r{arch 15, 1982 Deposi- t lon ( pp. I 5-20 ) , l.tr. Ilall lndicates that there are s ix to to seven concentrations'of Republican st,rength which are (and 'riIl be) submerged by DemocraEic vot,ing strength' in multi- member dlstricts. Hence, a fair slngle-member district system might be expected to increase Republican represencation from the nine llouse seats anticipated under the Corunission plan (Republicans now hold ten seats on Oahu) to perhaps as inany as 15 or 15. Certainly, ln r,y view, af ter revlewing all the roaps (l8A-l8l{) and the voting returns, data from the 1980 Election prepared by the office of the Lieutenant Governor any reason- able (const,ltut,lonal under g.S. and Bawaii guldelines) -38- -39- single-nember districting would gain Republlcans an additional five to seven itouse seats on oahu over what Ehey would achieve under the Conmission'g proposed predorninantly multimenber plan in which Republican strength is regularly subnerged by joining it with areas of Democratic concentratlon. the proposed plan unconstllutionally dllutes Republlcan voting Ecrength and 1s biased in favor of DenocraEic votersr PerPetuatlng an already existing dlscrininatlon caused by over-reliance on multimember districts and the etfects of rault,lrnernber dlstricts on sub- Eergence of minority vot,lng strength. Let us now look at this multlmember submergence effect in detail. 8or our flrst example, we may look at the sizeable concentration of Republican voting strength in the boEtom left, of tlap Exhlbit, l8A which ls divided between two multim.ember districcs, the lTth and the l8th, nelther of whlch elected any Republlcan represent,ative in 1980 because Republican strength eas so thoroughly subnerged that no nepubllcan candldate even chose to run ln either of theEe districts in 1980. (See discussion in Eall Depositlon No. 2, March 15, 1982, p. 15' of the ninority voting rights dilutlon effects of the Commisslon proposed plan whlch will be simllar to that of the exlsting g1an. ) Other exauples of the subnerged concentrations. of Bepublican voters aro shocn ln uap Exhibtt 188. There is a sizeable pocket of Republican voting strength in the uPPer right hand corner, r.rhich is compleEly submerged ln lhe 3- member l3th Eouse District, whlch in 1980 did not elect any Republican representatlves. Similarly, the 2-member I {th liouse Districtr whlch contains a reasonably sized bloc of Republican voting strength (the Patch of blue 1n the lorrer right part of the rnap) elected no Republican rePresentative in 1980. (See Eall DePosltlon uarch 15, 1982, pp. 15-17 for discuEeion of the guite sinilar effects of the proposed new plan. ) In my view, reasonable stngle-menber distrlcting for the ilouse in the portion of oahu shown in l{aps l8A and l8B soufd have galned the Republicans about three additional seats, lost tn the proposed and present plans to submergence. If we no'd turn to Ball's March 15, 1982 Deposition, uaP Exhlbtt 18C, and conpare 1t rrith the proposed n"Y. linesr He can see how the waialae-Kahala area (the blue and thus heavily Republlcan area ln the botton left of the tnap) has been grossly gerrymandered under the conmlssion's proposed Bouse pIan. Under the old distrlctlng, this area r,as I'n Bouse Distrlct 8, an overwhelmingly Republican area which elected two Republlcan representatlves. Under the ne'r proposed lines, it will be split four ways -- part of it to be retained in the ne,,, Eighth Eouse Dlstrict, a district which wiLl now becone an ovenrhelningly Bepubllean @, Part of, tts. -'00- -{l- n Republican voting strength will be submerged by Democratlc votes in new Eouse Dlstrict 9 (a mult,imember distrlct whlch will almost certainly elect tuo Democrats), another Part of its Republican votlng strengtit wll1 be submerged by Denocratlc votes ln new Eouse Distrlct 10 (another multinember district almost certain to efect two Democratic rePresentatives); and the final snall portion of this district has had its Repub- lican voting strength nerged with the already predomlnantly Repub),iean votlng etrength of new Bouse District I 1 (a dlstrlct which would in any case have elected two Republicans.) Thls 'treatment of Republican voting strength ln the l{aialae- Kaha1a area is a ttextbook' example of how to combtne nconcenEration' and 'dlspersal' gerrlnaandering technigues to dllute minorlty voting representatlon. In District 8, two nember dlsErlct' which had elected two Republlcans ts being reduced by' the Commisston plans to a slngle member district which is over- whelningly Republican (a 'concentration' gerrymander) -- thus losing one Republican rePresenEative; while the lower portion of the area is rnerged nith an already strongly Republican district (ilouse Distrlct ll)r another rconcentration gerry- nander; and another two pleces of Waialae-Kahala are submerged tn predorninantly Democratlc nrultlmember dlstricts (a forn of 'dispersal' gerrynander). Al,I in alI, Republican vot,ing st,rength clearly sufflclent to elect tto representatlves has been 'nagtcally' reduced 60 as to yteld only one (not already A winnable) seat, the new single-member 8th. such a multiPlex combination of multimenber district submergence of minority strength (an especially pernicious form of dispersal gerry- nandering) and concentratlon gerrymandering to further reduce lhe seats winnable by the ParElsan minorityl ls clearly, in mY view, violatlve of the llawaii Constitution, Article IV, Section 5, No. 2, as well as a denial of the Sederal'equal protectionr righls of minority voters. (8or further dis- cussion of thls pointl see Ha}l'g March 15, 1982 DePosition, p. 17. ) In l,tap Exhlblt l8J and l8K, if we look at the 20th Bouse Distrlct, we see Republican strength (see HaP l8J) is present- 1y totally submerged by Denocratlc voters (see MaP l8K) so that in 1980, no Republlcan candidate even contested t,he mulEimember disErict. clearly, tf Ehe District uere reason- ably divided lnto two .single-member districts, one of its aeats would alirost certainly go to a Republican can6idate. The commlsgionr s proposed nen liouse plan for t,his region of Oahu makes a bad situation even $rorse. IE is pernicious in its diluting effect on Republican votlng strength and in its violation of the socio-econonic and t,erritorial inUeqrity of Milllani (see MaP l8J). Previouslyr the considerable Repub- lican strength ln titililani had been submerged by Denocratlc votes'in old Bouse Dist,rict 20 (nhlch elected two Democrats in l98O). Under Ehe nee planr Milllanl ls slnpl,y being disnen- -{2- -{3- ^ r'!\ beredt One half of it si]l be ln new llouse District 20 and one half in new House District 22, both heavlly Democratic mult,imember districts. Thus, under t,he Commission plan, Mi,lilanl's Republlcan voters are having thelr ability to elect legislators of their choice t,oca1ly eliminated through the subrnergence of t,heir votes vla a comblnatlon of multimember districts and dispersal gerrymandering. Not surprisingry, Ehis dismemberment, which has in my vlew no legitimaLe justi- ftcation since alnost all of Mililani could easily be enconr passed within a eingle-member district, was bitterly protested by !{iltlanl residents. (See Ball DePosition March 15, 1982, pp. t8-19 and attached exhibits for furt,her discussion of the inpact of t,he Reapportlonment Comnlsslon plan on Mllllanl and of, local opposition to that Plan. ) Finally, if, we look at the two-menber 21st Eouse District, a large pocket of Republican strength (shown ln l{ap 18L) ls again submerged by being combined with Democratic voting st,rength (see Hap'18M). Indeed, no Republican even contested t,he distrtct in 1980. (For discuss!.on of the simllar egre- gious irnpact of the new Reapportionnent Corunisslon proposall see the HalI Deposition uarch 15, 19821 pp. t9-20.) 2. Constraints on Political Conpetitlon In my viewr one of the greatest risks ln use of a biParti- san dlstrlcttng conrolsston, whose nenbers are often hlghly pol,lt,lcat, oulng thelr aPpolnEr0ents 'to legislatlve and Party r\ leaders, is that the districting that results silI be an rincumbent preservation gerrrymanderr' i'e', one uhich seeks to preserve incumbents of both parties and to drastically reduce the nunber of potentially competitive districts. such a gerrymander would violate our basic democrattc belief that, as Niemi and Deegan (1978) put 1t, rSeats in a representative body should change as vole totals changer' i.e., a legislature should not be totally insulated from changing currents in public opinion over Ehe course of the nexE d.ecade. Eanaii already suffers from a situation ln whtch incumbents are largely locked into office and do not face challenge from candidates of the other rnajor Party. For example, during the 1980 elections, 5{t l9/141 of the Bawali, Senate seats'and 73t 134/46) of the minority House seat,s went, uncontested. Absence of contested electlong was partlcularly prevalent among the multimenber constltuencies. Of the 22 multimember districts tn the Eouse ln 1980, only two of the 22 (9t) t ere fully compet,ltive. Of the five single-member disericts in the House, two were fulJ,y competitive (40t) r l.e. had candidates of both parties equal in nunber to the seats at contest. In the llawaii Senate elect,ions in 1980, only 201 of the five contesCed multinenber districts Here fully competitive (one of flve), while on the other hand, 50t of the two contested (effectively) single-nenber senate dlstricts sere fully coBpeciEive. lloreoverr in the 1980 Bouse eleceton, che -{{- -{5- t\ largest district (l,ittr 3 nemberE) had three Democrats and only one Republican runnlng tor offlce, and all three Demo- crats were elected. Cleartyr nultimember districts reduce cornpetltion tn Bawail ln two imPortant rrays. Most lrnportanclyl they make lt far less Iikely that mlnorlty candidates will eeek officer and secondly and retatedty, they make more llkely a clean sweep by one political Party of all the seatE ln any multi- oesrber districts. thls clean srreep occurred ln 1980 in 60t 13/51 ot the (effectlvely) multimember districts in the senate and 77.5t 117/221 of the llouse nultimember distrlcEs. (See Ball DeposiElon No. 2, March 15, 1982, and Exhibit ll9 thereto for details on svreeps in legislative electlons in the 1970s.) These barriers to political competltion, combtned wlth the barriers to candidate ent,ry generated by the higher cost of canpalgning for multlmember dlstrtcts mean that, as multl- nenber distrlcts operate tn Eawal1, both voters and minority candidates are belng denled effective accesE to partlclpatlon in the polltical process, 1n vlolatlon of constttutlonally protected rlghts. lhe new dist,rlctlng proposals Eor the Eawaii ttouse and Senate wi]l continue llawail's already dramatic problems with absence ol poiltical competltlon, since nultinenber distrtcts contlnue to overarhelraingly predoninate ln both the llouse and ghe Senate. In thc 1980e, 96t o! ghe State senatoa8 and 88t of the ilouse members will be elected frorn nultimember districts. FurtherroEeT since the Hawaii districting maps in both House and Senate have been drawn to make it likely that all but a handful of lncumbentE can be reelected from their previous constltuencies (or sllghtly changed or enlarged verslons of sane) I lt ls likely that the problen of absence of, competltion.will grow even worse in the 1980s than it, t,as in the 1970s. The clalmed Link between the use of multinenber districts and reduced competit,iveness has been challenged by Dr. Ruben Mallari, the Reapportionment Commission Chairman, in state- ments made before Ehe cornmission JuIy 6, 1981 . Dr. l'{allari (P. 9) asgerts .I suggest, t,o the Conmission that Ehe.conten. tion t,hat multlmember districts allow party sweePs cannot easlly be tested in Bawaii because of the failure of both poIltical parties to field fuIl st,ates of candidates in t,he Iegislative contests.' ltallarl Ehen goes on (remalrider of p. { ) to demonstrate the hlstorical lack of competitiveness t..-.-, Eawall leglslative contestE throughout the 1970s. The nis- Eake Dr. Mallart nakes is a conmon form of logical fallacy; called ln sEatlEtica books the'fallacy of the hidden 3rd. factor. t ' whlle tt ls true that lack of conPetltion fosters sueePs (and vlc€ versa), @ Iack of comPetition and sweeps are largely the direct 6r lndirect result of th€ preponderant use a -{6- -{7- of multimember dlstrlcts which submerge minority voting strength and have led ( and will continue E,o lead) ninority candidates to choose not to run in multimember races tn which they can expect to be unsuccessful, and when they do run ln such racesr !o be ln faet more likely than not to be unsuccessfull As noted above, in 1980 (and I belleve similar resul,cs woul,d obtain for other el,ection years) , multimember districts irere considerably less llkely Ehan slngle-menber dlst,ricts to lnvolve fully contest,ed electlons. The elimina!ion of nultl-member dlstrlcts and their replacement iit,h slngle-menber distrlcts woul.d thus, almost, certalnly, enhance political competltion in Hawail, as well as leading to a Bore eguitable representatlon of a1l groups or factions within the electorate. (See further'discusslon of these points in renarks by Comrntssion nrember Janes 8a11, mlnutea of t,he Reapporttonnent Comralssion, July 5, 1981 , p. 9 I and see Exhibit t9 in gall Deposttlon No. 2, !,tarch 15, 1982.) cannot be sustained by a proclaimed need to Preserve the Basic Island Units intact. The Reapportionment Comnissionsr plans already contaln districts which span more than one lsland, and Hawaii constitut,ional provisions must give Hay to the U.S. constiEutional guarantee of voter Protectioni 2t the Comrnission's proposed schemes of mixed single and multimenber districts have generated egregious political gerrymanders which unconstitutionally dilute the voting strengEh of partisan political ninortties, generally (but not exclusively) Republican voters, and wilI be likely to deny representation to voters in portions of t,he Iarger multi- nember districts because of the election of rePresentations from a narrow geographic area within the larger district; 3) the proposed schemes of mixed singIe and multimenber districts wiII act so as to elininate the possibility of oeaningful political competition for state legislative posi- tions in both the Bouse and the Senate and will redtice incen- tives to voter turnout by effectlvely freezing Present poli- tlcal incumbents in office; The Unconst itutional 1ty Redistricting A. Overvien of, Eawallre 1981 Legtslatlve Bawallrs 1981 legislatlve redistrictlng should dosn as unconstitutional because 1 ) populatton deviattons fron 'one peEson, one grcsEly erceed constitutlonally p€ralsslble llnlte be struck vote' so that they 4) absent proof of concordance base, the use of a registered voter tive apportionments ls tnpermlssible @. I belleve tha! it the court accepts lying gg clngle one of Ebese charges, sith a permissible vote base for Eawaii legisla- -- in clear viol.atton ot the reasoning under- thig uould be suffi- -48- -{9- la cient reason to declare Bawaiirs 1981 Legislative redlstrict- lng unconstitutional on Federal equal protection grounds. !{oreover, the proposed plans appear to have a number of other critical defects. For examplel it has been argued (see e.g. Deposition No. 2, March 15, 1982 by James llall and selected exhlbits thereto) that, the Commissionr s proposed redlstrlctton schemes subnerge certain socio-economic aroup-' ings 1n violation of the Bawail Constitution, Article IV, Section 5. It has al,so been argued t,hat the proposed re- districclng schemer at least for Oahu, for the Rouse, (where bne Republlcan and one Democrat seat rdere "sacrificed'1 3 reduced Ehe level of Republican representatlon in the llouse in an arbitrary and discriminatory fashion without taking i,nt,o account changes 1n populatlon and in partisan voter sentiment or taklng lnto account considerations of political equi:y.{ Thus, at least on Oahu for the llouse, the ReapPor- tionment Commission appears (whether witElngly or unwittlng- ly) to have vtolated the Hawall Constitutton, Article IV, 3see uyesugi Depositlon for origins of the decision to reduce Oahu Republican representation and Oahu Democratic representation in the llouse by one rePresentative each. It is evident fron t.hat, deposition that t,he decision vras an arbitrary one, and in my view, nothlng in the subseguent, Comr,rission ninutes provides any justifiable raEionale Eor ir. {A one seat reduction clearly has a inpact on a party rttb l0 seatg than 29 geats. Section 5, No. 2 in unfairly favorlng a Partlcular goJ'itical faction (the Democrats). Rurthermore, the Connissionrs arbllrary and poorly (if at all) justified decisions as to where to create single-member districts and where to creaEe multlmember districts, its overreliance on large multimember distrlcts (1n violation of the spirit of the recommendations of Bawaiirs recent ConsEi- tutional Convention), and .its failure to pay heed to gropo- sals from the majority of the Island Advisory Councils, seems to me to augu.r for a lack of a good faith effort on the Part of Ehe Comnisslon to comply eith Article IV of Eawaii Con- st,itutlon (esp. the sectlon regarding submergence of socio- economic groups and the section prohibiting any candidat,e or faction from being unduly favored). rn like nanner, t'he cotr missionrs 'Iagt minuter revisions to what had already been approved by the Commisslon as the final plan, on grounds of suddenly discovered unconstitutionally large population deviat,ions in a nunber of distri.cts, augurs for a less than good falth previous efforts on the part of the Commission to keep populatlon deviations as low as possible and to conPly with U.S. mandated one Person, one vote standards. Since the Commisslon was informed by Mr. Funaki from the very beginning of its dellberat,ions of ehe need for populaEion equality acrogs'dlstrict,s, such rlas! minuter discovery of failure to eonply wlth populacion equality standards suggests at ainl-Proportlonatly greaEer it doee on a party with -50- - 5l - Bur, incompetence, and at sorst, nonfeasance, on the Part of the Commission. B. Consideration of Appr.opriate Remedies l. I belleve that the Easic Island Unit Scheme cannot, as it has operated in the proposed ReaPortionment commission a-plans, Pass tone person, one voter muster, and that Ehls court should (either itself or wlth the agsistance ot a Special Uaster) prepare its own districting schemes based on single-nenber districts. The justiflcatlons for the Baslc Island Unit scheme ln Burns v. Gill are no longer appropriate ln terms of 1980's vaslly increased media and transportatlon linkages among the island components of, che sEate of Bawaii. 2. Even lf the court chooses to retain the Basic Island Unit Scheroe despite the huge discrepancies from egual populat,ion apportionrnents that iE has gtven rise to in'the proposed Reapportlonment Conrmlssion plansr then the Court should st1lt (either itself or nit,h the assistance of a Special Master)' redraw a1l districts as single-member districts, since the multimember districts as drawn have definitely generat,ed an egreglous dilutlon of Republlcan voter representagion on Oahu ( in the Senate but esPecially in the Bouse); and of Deuocratlc vot,er rePresentatlon on Eawaii ( in the House), and posslbly also of Republican voter representation Ln Maut (tn both Bouee and senate) and ln Sauai (ln tne Eouse). 3. Regardless of the courtrs disposition of the above guestions, I would propose t,hat the court reject the proposed Reapportionnent Commission plan as unconstitutionaf in its use of a regist,ered voter basis, es that basis has ooerated in 1990, and that it, con6truct a citizen base on which to base apportionment,s, which it (perhaps with the asslstance of a Special Master) can use to draw new and fairer districc lines for boEh Bouse and Senate. Such a citizen basis can, I believe, be estimated with sufficlent precision from Census and other datd. Given the guidelines of Conners v. Johnson, 402 0.s. 590 (1971) and SgELLEigE, ,120 U.S. I (1975), for court-ordered reapportionments, the court shoufd draw district lines for both houses in tems of single-nenber d tstricts. As noted above, mul.timenber schenes, while not .per se unconst,it,utlonalr generally suffer from a wide variety of defects, afmost of which have been shown to be manifested in the evidentlary record dealing with the use of mult,imember districts for Ilawail State legislative elections. 4. It the court reJects all Ehese points and allows the retention of both the Basic Island Onit Schene and of some nultimember districts, t,hen I noul,d propose that the courE provide EhaE any nultinenber districts which are utilized oake use of a geographlc plac€ (posltlon) reguirenent to a -52- -53- a foster at f"""t somewhat fairer representation of all elementg of each of the multimember constiEuencies. 5. In any case, the court should act promPtly to esta- blish a new set of Eouse and Senate distrtcts which will be constitut,ional l,ith respect t,o both the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constltution and Article IV, Section 6 of the llarall Constitution, The present ProPosed plans suffer fron Eoo many defect,s to be permltted to stand, even as int,eriro plans. I an confident that this court will (perhaps .wit,h the asslstance of a Speclal Haster) be able to drau new plans expeditiously, in t,ime to be lnplemenEed for 1982 elections. Moreover, it nould be desirable for t,he court to begin anew the drawtng of constitutionally permissible legislatlve dist,rict,s for both houses, rather than seek.ing nerely to tinker with t,he existing plans ln these areas where vot,e dilutlon or socio-economlc submerge is most extreme. The problem uith such glecemeal revisions is that, as ls weII known in the polltical science literature on redistricting, 'ripple" effects mean t,hat changes in one district'E bounda- ries create the need for further (and usually unant,lcipated) changes elsenhere. Only a hollstic approach ls likely to yield overall equality and saEisfy one Person, one vote guidelinee in eacb discrlct,. Auerbach, Carl "The'Reapportionment, Revolution.' -I! Philf-!P.Kurland (Ed.) thE supreme-leur!-Ret1i-ew. Chicago: University of Chicagoffi Banzhaf, John F. III- tttuiti-Member Electoral Districts--Do they violate the 'cina -llan, oni vo[et Princip]e?' YaIe Law-Journal vo]- 75 (r966), r309-1338. Berry, Barbara L. and Thomas R. DYe'"'ihe Discriminatory Effects of At-Large Elections.' l'Iorida sEqe Univarsitv Law Re vol. T (1979), PP.EFTTz-- Burke, P. 8., D. A. Epstein and S. A. Alito--- "Federal'Case Lawi State Legislative and Congressional Dist.ricting.n In A. !.Jalloch (Ed.) ReapportioEnent, Law and Technoioqv. Denver: National CotlrlcrT of SEar,e EAgIFiaffieE]-June t 980, I 7-80. Grofman, Bernard "Alternatives to Sincle Member PIurality District' E1;;ci6;;.' - -p5iicv Stuaies Journal (Special ApriI 1981a issue on'Rea@ Gtrofman, Bernard "Fair ApportionmenE and the Banzhaf Index. American ulEfreqdiici-noirirriv vor. -eg, wo. I (1981b), T=r ntoar*il".n*, Arend Li jphart, Robert HcKay and llonard Scarrow ( Eds. ) nepreseniqtioir and nedistrictinq Issues. Lexington, HAs Lexrngcon dooxs t t>oz. Grofman, Bernard and Howard Scarrow 'Iannucci and its Aftermath.' In S. Brams, A. and G. Schwodiauer (Eds.) Applied Game Theorv' Physical-Verlay, 1979. Grofman, Bernard and Howard Scarrow 'weighted Voting in New York County Government. latiie studles QuarterW VoI. 51, No. 2(1981), Jewel I, !,laLco1m E. "The Consequences In B. Grofman, A. (Eds. ) , Re LexlngtoE; Re ferences Schot,te r Vienna ' Leqis- 287=3-0r Di stricting. Scarrow of SingIe Li j phart , and Multi-llenber R. McKay, and It.edistrietino Iss -5{- -55- n Befcrenceg ( Contlnued ) tucas, Willlan P. 'tleasurlnq Power in reighted Voting Systensl' CasG Studies fui applled ilath6natics. t{ithAmattcs Aesoctltlon of Anertca, lt6dule tn Appllid [athenatics, t976.(orlginalti publiched ai-Teehnical Report No. 2271 Depaicnenc- o'i operaElons ffi Enllneering, Coinell Unlversity, Ithaca, -NGr York, . Septenber 197{. ) Xlcoi, Rlchard and John Deegan- '6ompetition, Responsiv6ness and ghe sclng Rat,lo.' lmerican PoIit,ical Sclence Revles. vollna 72, uo. { lrlbc, Laerchcc Aierican Constltuglonal Lau. flDnaola, Icw lorkr . -56-