Trial Transcript Volume 1

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICT OF NORTH CAROLINA

RALEIGH DIVI SION

RALPH GINGLES, ET AL.2

V.

RUFUS EDMISTEN, ETC.,
ET AL.,

ALAN V. PUGH, ET AL.

V.

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81-201-crv-5

B1-1066-CrV-5

.JAMES B. HUNT, ,.JR.,
ET AL.,

JOHN .J. CAVANAGH , ET

V.

ALEX K. BROCK, ETC.,
ET AL.,

ETC.,

AL.

82-5 4 5-C r V- 5

DEFENDANTS.

TRIAL BEFORE

THE HONORABLE J. DICKSON

THE HONORABLE FRANKLIN T.

THE HONORA BLE W. EARL

PHILLIPS

DUPREE, JR.

BRITT

2
F t O. 8or 2.taC
u RdaCt. Ndn Cryotl[ ararr



AT RALEIGH: MONDAY, JULY 25, lggl -

VOLUME 1

PAGES 1 THROUGH 165

PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC.

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MAIN OFFICE. RAI"EIGH, 832.9085
779-3619 676.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONAF t O. lor tttG

Ll turr,l xdri cearil 2ra.r



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

APPEARANCES

ON BEHALF OF THE PLAINTIFFS:

LESLIE J. WINNER, ESQUIRE
CHAMBERS, FERGUSON, WATT, WALLAS, ADKINS 6 FULLER
SUITE 730, EAST INDEPENDENCE PLAZA
951 SOUTH INDEPENDENCE BOULEVARD
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA 28202

ARTHUR .J. DONALDSON, ESQU I RE

BURKE, DONALDSON, HOLHOUSER T KENERLY
]09 NORTH MAIN STREET
SALISBURY, NORTH CAROLINA 28144

ROBERT N. HUNTER, JR., ESQUIRE
P. O. BOX 3245
GREENTStsORO, NoRTH CAROLINA 27402

LANI GUINIER, ESQUIRE
NAACP LEGAL DEFENSE FUND, INC. :

1O COLUMBUS CIRCLE
SUITE 2O3O
NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10019

ON BEHALF OF THE DEFENDANTS:

.JERRIS LEONARD, ESQUIRE
KATHLEEN HEENAN MCGUAN, ESQUIRE
900 17TH STREET, N.W.
t^,ASHINGTON, D.C. 20006

.JAMES WALLACE, JR., ESQU I RE

DEPUTY ATTORNEY GENERAL
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF .JUSTICE
POST OFFICE BOX 629
RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA 27602

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P, O. ad lilas

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIEING. INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 976.1571
PHOEN!X, ARIZOAIA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

WI TNESS

BERNARD N. GROFMAN

DIRECT CROSS
VOIR
DIRE

BY MS. WINNER

BY MR. LEONARD

19-14
36-i46

147-164 34-36

EXHIT}ITS

NUMBER DESCRIPTION MARKED RECE I V

PLAINTIFF

1 CURRICULUM VITAE
2 MAP OF APPORTIONMENT PLANS
] MAP
r+ MAP-HOUSE D I STR I CT NUMBER 36
5 BASE MAP-BLK VOTER REGISTRATION
6 MAP
6(A) MAP OF DURHAM COUNTY
7 (A) SUBMERGENCE PLAN - I\'AKE COUNTY
8(A) MAP-wILSON-EDGECoMBE-wILSoN
9(A) MECKLENBURG AND CABARRUS MAP

L2 RESEARCH REPORT
1 1 GRAPH

13 SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS-FORSYTH CO.
14 COUNTY BY COUNTY SUMMARIES
15 COUNTY BY COUNTY SUMMARIES
16 COUNTY BY COUNTY SUMMARIES
17 COUNTY BY COUNTY SUMMARIES
18 COUNTY BY COUNTY SUMMARIES
13(P) NTWSPAPER ARTICLES
19 PARTICIPATION IN GEN. ELECTIONS
2,0 SUMMARY ON COST OF CAMPAIGNING
10 EXISTING SENATE DISTRICT NO. 2

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29
77
3'7

37
43
4t+

46_
47
63
64.
86
86
86
86
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86
97..

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. 146.

146
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146
112
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OPEN ING STATEMENT
BY MS. WINNER PAGES 13_16

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.. !,

P R O C E E D I N G S 1O:OO A.M.

THIS CAUSE CAME ON FOR TRIAL BEFORE THE

HONORABLE DICKSON .PHILLIPS, THE HONORABLE

FRANKLIN T. DUPREE, TJR., AND THE HONORABLE

I,I . EARL BR I TT, AT RALE I GH, NORTH CAROL I NA

oN MONDAY, .JULY 25, 1981.

.JUDGE DUPREE : GOOD MORN I NG, LAD I ES AND

GENTLEMEN.

TJUDGE PH I LL I PS: BEFORE WE HEAR THE OPENI NG

STATEMENT, LET ME MAKE A'BRIEF STATEMENT ABOUT THE TERMS OF

THE INTERVENTION AND THE MANAGEMENT OF THE CASE FROM THE

PLAINTIFFST SIDE AS BETWEEN THE TWO SETS OF REPRESENTATIVE

PLA I NT.I FFS.

OUR ORDER SeVenf r.re THE F'UGH CASE FROM ITS FORMER

CONSOLIDATION WITH THE GINGLES CLASS ACTION WAS DONE LAST

WEEK, BASICALLY BY A TELEPHONE CONFERENCE. AND UNDER-

STANDABLY, I THINK, IN CONFERENCE THERE MAY BE CONCEIVABLY

SOME MILD LACK OF AGREEMENT OR UNDERSTANDING AS TO JUST

EXACTLY HOW THE COURT VIEWS THE RESULT OF THE SEVERENCE AND

THE INTERVENTION.

AND i WANT NOW TO STATE TO COUNSEL THE COURTIS

UNDERSTANDING WHICH WILL BE IF NECESSARY REFLECTED IN A

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. l,tAlN OFFICE, RA|"E|GH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.a571
PHOENIX, ARIZONAF t, O. lc 2al!,

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TBANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

MODIFIED ORDER OF INTERVENTION AND SEVERENCE. I THINK

THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO MODIFY UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES THE

SEVERENCE ORDER. BUT I CAN SEE THE POSSIBILITY THAT FOR

THE SAKE OF THE RECORD WE MAY NEED A MODIFIED AMENDED

ORDER ON THE INTERVENTION PART.

NOI,'J, IF YOU WILL ATTEND CAREFULLY TO WHAT I SAY

THIS WILL BE THE SUBSTANCE OF THE AMENDED ORDER IF WE DECID

ONE IS NEEDED. I AM GOING TO STATE NOW OUR UNDERSTANDING

AND OUR RULING ON THE INTERVENTION STATUS OF THE PUGH

PLAINTIFFS AND WHAT THAT MEANS IN TERMS OF MANAGEMENT AND

PRESENTATION OF EVIDENCE IN THE CASE.

WE ALLOWED THE PUGH PLAINTIFFS TO INTERVENE

BECAUSE CERTAIN OF THEM AND ONLY CERTAIN OF THEM, THOSE

WHO ARE BLACKS AND ARE REGISTERED VOTERS IN THE STATE OF

NORTH CAROLINA, ARE BY DEFINITION UNDER THE CERTIFICATION

ORDER IN THE GINGLES CA.SE MEMBERS OF THAT CLASS. ONLY THE

BLACK PUGH PLAINTIFFS ARE BY DEFINITION MEMBERS OF THE

GINGLES CLASS.

IT WAS ONLY WITH RESPECT TO THOSE MEMBERS OF THE

GINGLES CLASS WHO ARE ALSO PUGH PLAINTIFFS THAT WE INTENDED

TO ALLOW INTERVENTION. THE INTERVENTION IS AS REPRESENTA-

TIVE PARTIES FOR THE GINGLES CLASS. THE INTERVENORS, AS

ADDITIONAL REPRESENTATIVE PARTIES.AS INTERVENORS TAKE THE

GINGLES CASE AS THEY FIND IT.-THAT IS TO SAY, THEY ARE

ALLOWED TO INTERVENE AND TO PARTiCIPATE AND PRESENT

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

EVIDENCE WHOSE RELEVANCE IS AS DETERMINED BY THE GINGLES

CLAIM. AND THE GINGLES CLAIM, I^/E TAKE IT, WE ARE PROCEEDING

ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE GINGLES CLAIM IS THAT VERY

CLEARLY STATED STARTING I BELIEVE ON PAGE 43 OF THE PRE-

TRIAL ORDER.

IT IS A CLAIM THAT I SUMMARIZE HERE: DILLUTION,

SUBMERGENCE OF THE VOTING RIGHTS OF BLACK VOTER RESIDENTS

OF THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA IN RESPECT OF THE DISTRICTING

WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS, AND WITH

PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO CERTAIN IDENTIFIED MULTI-MEMBER

DISTRICTS AND ONE OTHER AS TO WHICH THERE IS A CLAIM I THINK

OF FRAGMENTATION. J

IN ANY EVENT, HOWEVER, THE CLAIM IS CONFINED TO

THE DILLUTION, SUBMERGENCE OF THE VOTES OF THE BLACK CLASS

PLAINTIFFS IN THE EINGL.ES ACTION. AGAIN, GENERALIZING AND

SUMMARIZING AND RELYING ON WHAT IS IN THE PRE-TRIAL ORDER

FOR THE SPECIFICS, THERE 
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NOT INVOLVED IN THIS CASE BY

REASON OF THE INTERVENTION ANY.CLAIM WIDER THAN THAT

IDENTIFIED IN THE PRE-TRIAL ORDER IN THE GINGLES CLASS

ACT I ON.

SPECIFICALLY, WE DO NOT

BEFORE THE COURT ANY CLAIM HAVING

OF ANY OIHER MINORITIESI VOTE THAN

CLASS OF PLAINTIFFS IN THE GINGLES

UNDERSTAND THAT THERE I S

TO DO WITH THE DILLUTION

THAT OF THE CERTIFIED

ACT I ON.

WE ALSO UNDERSTAND AND ARE PROCEEDING ON THE

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCBIBING. INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PIIOENIX, ARIZONA

ASSUMPTION THAT OUR UNDERSTANDING IS CORRECT, THAT THE

BLACK GINGLES CLASS ACTION CLAIM IS CONFINED TO AN ALLEGA-

TION, A CLAIM OF VIOLATION OF THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT, SECTIO

2, AND THAT IT DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY BROADER CLAIM THAN

BASED UPON THE CONSTITUTION OR ANY OTHER STATUTE.

NOIV, I SEE |^JORRIED FROWNS ON THE FACE OF COUNSEL

AND I I4ILL GIVE YOU A CHANCE TO RESPOND TO THAT STATEMENT

OF UNDERSTANDING ABOUT THE SCOPE OF THE CLAIM. BUT I WANT

TO SAY BEFORE GIVING YOU THAT OPPORTUNITY TF.AT IN TERMS OF

THE MANAGEMENT OF THE CASE WITHIN THAT UNDERSTANDING THAT

I HAVE.JUST STATED WE LOOK TO THE COUNSEL FOR THE GINGLES

PLAINTIFF AS LEAD COUNSEL IN THE CASE FOR OBVIOUS RE,ASONS,

AND WILL ASSUME THAT THE GINGLES PLAINTIFFSI COUNSEL WILL

PRESENT THE GINGLES CASE AS STRUCTURED AND IDENTIFIED IN THE

PRE-TRIAL ORDER.

WHATEVER ARRANGEMENTS MAY BE T{ORKED OUT BETWEEN

THE GINGLES PLAINTIFFSI COUNSEL AND THE PUGH INTERVENORS

PLAINTIFFSI COUNSEL ARE OF NO.CONCERN TO THE COURT. WE WIL

CONFINE THE EXAMINATION OF WITNESSES TO ONE COUNSEL. YOU

CAN ALLOCATE THAT BETWEEN COUNSEL AS YOU SEE FIT. BUT WE

WILL RECOGNIZE ONLY ONE COUNSEL FOR THE EXAMINATION OF ANY

ONE WITNESS.

AT THE END OF THE GINGLES PLAINTIFFS' CASE AS

CONCEIVED BY ThE GINGLES ' COUNSEL, I,JHEN THE GINGLES

PLAINTIFFSI COUNSEL RESTS THAT CASE, WE WILL ENTERTAIN AI'

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PRECISION REPORTING
ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH. 832.9085

779.36t 9 87 6.457 |
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THAT TIME ANY MOTION THAT THE INTERVENORSI COUNSEL MAY

WANT TO MAKE SUGGESTING A DESIRE TO INTRODUCE FURTHER

EVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE GINGLES CLASS ACTION CLAIM AS

PRESENTLY DEFINED--THAT IS TO SAY, HAVING ALLOWED INTER-

VENTION, WE ASSUME THAT ONE REASON IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN SOUGH

WAS SOME CONCERN ABOUT, I F NOT LACK OF ADEQUATE REPRESEN-

TATION, AT LEAST SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE BREADTH OF THE

REPRESENTATION OF THE CL.AIM THAT THE PUGH PLAINTIFFS-.THE

BLACK PUGH PLAINTIFFS--HAD IN MIND.

AND WE WILL ENTERTAIN A MOTION AT THAT TIME TO

INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIATION, SUPPORT

OF THE GINGLES CLASS ACTION CLAIM. WE WILL NOT CONSIDER

ANY SUGGESTION OF BROADENING OF THE SCOPE OF THE GINGLES

CLASS ACTION CLAIM AS IT IS DEFINED IN THE PRE-TRIAL ORDER

UNLESS AT THAT TIME THE INTERVENORS' COUNSEL WANTS TO MAKE

A MOTION DIRECTED SPECIFICALLY TO THE IN.JUSTICE OF FAILING

TO ALLOW THE CLAIM ITSELF TO BE BROADENED. IN OTHER WORDS,

I TAKE IT THAT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A MOTION TO AMEND

THE PRE-TR IAL ORDER IN THE INTEREST OF .JUSTICE IN ORDER TO

TAKE THE CASE INTO A BROADER RANGE THAN IT NOW HAS AND TO

EXPAND IT TO Ii.ICLUDE A THEORY THAT IS NOT PRESENTLY BEFORE

THE COURT IN THE GINGLES CLASS ACTION.

AND I,,/E WILL RULE ON ANY MOTIONS MADE AT THAT

TIME FOR THE RECORD.

NOW, NOI'IE OF THAT I TH I NK AFFECTS ANYTII I l.lc 0N

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

TNE oEFENDANTS SIDE oF THE CASE IN TERMS oF YoUR PRE-

PARATION OF TACTICS. AND IF A MOTION IS MADE BY THE

INTERVENORS ALONG THE LINE I SUGGEST AND YOU HAVE ANY

OBJECTION TO THE EXPANSION OF THE CASE, EITHER IN TERMS OF

INTRODTJCING ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE OR CONCEIVABLY A BROADENING

CLAIM, YOU CAN BE HEARD AT THAT TIME.

NOW, ARE THERE QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT?

MS. WINNER: YES, SIR. I THINK IT IS

ABSOI-UTELY CORRECT ABOUT OUR CONTENTIONS. ONE THING THAT

I WANT TO MAKE CLEAR IS THAT THE PLAINTIFFS DO NOT INTEND

TO WAIVE THEIR CLAIMS UNDER THE FOURTEENTH AMENDMENT,

ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT INTEND TO PRODUCE EVIDENCE WITH ONE

EXCEPTION, AND THAT iS WE WILL AT|TEMPT TO PROVE INTEN.

TIONAL DISCRIMINATION WITH REGARD TO THE SECOND SENTATE

DISTRICT.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: WELL, I DONIT SUPPOSE THAT

ANYONE AT THIS TIME IN 
""O*' 

KNOWS THE EXTENT OF THE

RELATIONSHIP OF THE FOURTEENTH AMENDMENT CLAIM AND THE

AMENDED SECTION 2 OF THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT. AND CERTAINLY

WE DONIT HAVE ANY INTENTION OF STANDING ON ANY TECHNICAL

EXCLUSION OF ANY CONSTITUTIONAL CLAIM YOU MAY HAVE STATED

HERE.

MS. WINNER: TO THE EXTENT THAT OUR

EVIDENCE WILL RESULT AS ALSO CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE, I

CONTEND WE INTEND TO CONSIDER THAT.

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCBIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

P}IoENIX, ARIZONA

JUDGE PHILLIPS: DOES ANYONE HAVE QUESTIONS

OR NEED CLARIFICATION OF WHAT I SAID?

MR. HUNTER: ALONG THE SAME LINE AS MS.

WINNER HAS ALREADY INDICATED TO THE COURT, WE HAVE WORKED

OUT A PROCEDURE I THINK. I^,E HAVE NO CONFLICTS REGARDING

THE PRESENTATION OF THE EVIDENCE. WE ONLY INTEND WE THINK

TO CALL ONE WITNESS AT THE END OF THEIR CASE. AND WE HAVE

ALREADY DISCUSSED THAT WITH THEM AND ARE IN FULL AGREEMENT

AS TO THE MANAGEMENT OF THE CASE.

I DONIT THINK ANY MOTiONS WILL

HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, THE EQUAL PROTECTION

WE FEEL MORE STRONGLY ABOUT THAN THEY DO.

I WP.NT TO MAKE SURE THAT I UNDERSTAND THE

PRECISELY. ARE YOU INDICATING TO US THAT

CONSIDER THEIR EQUAL PROTECTION CLAIM AT

MAY RELATE TO OUR PLAINTIFFS?

JUDGE PHILLIPS: I UNDERSTAND THAT THE CLAIM

BEEORE US, I,.JHETHER IT PROCEEDS UNDER THE SECTION 2 OF THE

VOTING RIGHTS ACT, WHICH IT CERTAINLY DOES, OR UNDER THE

VOTING RIGHT ACT AND UNDER THE FOURTEENTH AMENDMENT IN

THE GINGLES CLASS ACTION IS ONE IN BEHALF ENTIRELY OF BLACK

VOTERS FROM THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA.

I AM FRANK TO SAY TO YOU THAT I TRIED TO FATHOM

YOUR CONSTITUTIONAL CLAIM IN YOUR MEMORANDUM, AND IT SEEMS

.TO ME ANY WAY I READ IT TO GO BEYOND A CLAIM OF THE

BE IN ISSUE.

CLAIM IS ONE WHIC

AND I .THINK THAT

COURTI S ORDER

YOU WOULD NOT

THIS TIME AS IT

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PRECISION BEPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. IAAIN OFFIG, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876..t521

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

DILLUTION OF BLACK VOTERS' RIGHTS. AND TO THE EXTENT YOU

CLAIM DOES INVOLVE A CLAIM OF THE DILLUTION OF THE VOTES OF

ANY MINORITY OTHER THAN THE BLACK MINORITY, WE DO NOT

CONSIDER AS IN THIS CASE.

AND IF YOL' WANT IT IN THIS CASE IN YOUR PRESENT

POSTURE AS INTERVENORS, IT CAN ONLY BE DONE BY AN AMENDMENT

TO THE PRE-TRIAL ORDER WHICH NOW CONTROLS THE SCOPE OF THIS

TR IAL.

AND IT IS ON THAT POINT IF YOU CARE AT THE END

OF THE GINGLES PLITINTIFFSI CASE AS DETERMINED BY LEAD

COUNSEL FOR THE GiNGLES PLAINTIFFS TO MAKE A REPRESENTATION

THAT IN VIEI,I OF THE COMMONALITY OF THE iSSUES OR WHATEVER

REASONS YOTJ WOULD LIKE TO HAVE THE SCOPE OF THIS TRIAL

EXPAI.JDED, WE WILL HEAR YOU ON IT. BUT AT THIS TIME TO THE

EXTENT--AND I AM FRANK TO SAY I AM NOT SURE THAT I UNDER.

STAND THE EXTENT OF YOUR CLAIM TO THE EXTENT IT DOES INCLUD

ANY CLAIM OF THE DILLUTION OF THE VOTES OR THE VIOLATION OF

ANY RIGHTS HAD BY AI..IYONE OTHER THAN THE BLACK VOTER

RESIDENTS IN NORTH CAROLINA, WE DO NOT CONSIDER AS IN THIS

CASE.

BY THE SAME TOKEN, THERE IS

TI-,IIS CASE THAT HAS ANYTHING TO DO WiTH

HAVE THAT IS NOT THAT CLAIM.

ANYTHING ELSE?

(I.IO RESPONSE. )

NOTHING DECIDED IN

ANY CLAIM THAT YOU

F P. O. ld 2a!B
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. ,\[AIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

JUDGE PHILLIPS:

OPENING S

ALL RIGHT. MS.

TATEMENT

W I NNER.

10: 17 A.M.

MS. WINNER: THANK YOU. BEFORE I BEGIN, I

I,JOULD LIKE TO TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTRODUCE TO THE COUR

LANI GUINER WHO IS CO.COUNSEL IN THIS CASE FROM THE LEGAL

DEFENSE FUND IN NEW YORK, AND ALSO MS. SARAH CROWDER WHO IS

SITTING IN THE JURY BOX FROM CHARLOTTE, AND WHO WILL BE

ASSISTING WITH THE MANAGEMENT OF EXHIBITS.

THE QUESTION BEFORE THE COURT THIS MORNING IS

WHETHER THE APPORTIONMENT OF THE NORTH CAROLINA GENERAL

ASSEMBLY--THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE.-AS THE RESULT OF,

ABRIDGING THE RIGHTS OF PLAINTIFFS AND BLACK CITIZENS OF

THEIR RIGHT TO VOTE. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION OF FACT BEFORE

YOL' IS WHETHER OR NOT UNDER ALL OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE

CASE AND OF THE STATE THE BLACK CITIZENS HAVE A LOWER

OPPORTUNITY TO PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS AND AN

UNEQUA.L OPPOP.TUN I TY TO ELECT R,EPRESENTAT I VES OF THE I R CHOI C

THE PLI.INTIFFST EVIDEI.ICE WILL SHOVJ THAT THE

STATE RECOGNIZED CONCENTRATION OF BLACK CITIZENS ONLY IN

THOSE PAR.TS OF THE STATE WHERE THE UNITED STATES.JUSTICE

DEPARTMENT REQUIRED THEM TO DO SO PURSUANT TO SECTION 5;

THAT THEY FA.I LED TO RECOGN I ZE THOSE CONCENTRAT,IONS OF

MiIIIORITY CITIZENS THAT EXIST IN THE STATE IN SUFFICIENT

NUMtsERS TO BE A MAJOR I TY IN THE LEG T SLATURE BOTH IT.i AP.EAS O

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 A76.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THE STATE COVERED BY SECTION 5 WHEN THE UNITED STATES

DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE DID NOT REQUIRE IHEM TO RECOGNIZE

THEM, AND IN THOSE FARTS OF THE STATE NOT COVERED BY SECTI

5.

UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS FAILURE TO RECOG.

NIZE THE CONCENTRATIONS OF MINORITY VOTERS HAS A DISCRIMINA

TORY RESULT BECAUSE OF THE UNIVERSAL RACIAL POLARIZATION

THAT EXISTS IN THE VOTING IN EVERY PART OF THE STATE AT

A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LEVEL. IN NO ELECTION WHICH WE

ANALYZED, WHICH WERE NUMEROUS ELECTIONS IVHICH GROFMAN

ANALYZED, DID HE FiND A MA.JORITY OF THE WHITE VOTERS WILLIN

TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE. SII'IPLY PUT, THAT MEANS THAT

A BLACK CANDIDATE STARTS OUT WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE

WHITE VOTERS UNWILLING TO VOTE FOR HIM OR HER NO MATTER WHO

HE IS OR NO MATTER WHAT HE DOES.

. THIS, OF COURSE, IS NOT TRUE IN THE CONVERSE.

THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF BLACK PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT

WILLING TO VOTE FOR SOME WHITE'CANDIDATES.

THE EVIDENCE WILL FURTHER SHOI^' THAT THIS

POLARIZATION HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY ENCOURAGED AND CONTINUES

TO BE ENCOURAGED BY RACIAL APPEALS MADE IN ELECTION

CAMPAIGNS BY THE POLITICIANS BY BOTH PARTIES. IN LIGHT OF

THE OFFICIAL DISFRANCHISEMENT OF BLACK PEOPLE IN THE STATE

EARLY IN THE CENTURY AND DISFRANCHISEMENT WHICH WAS

CONTINUED BY THE USE OF THE LITERACY TEST IN NORTH CAROLINA

Fr P. O. la llt*t
u turrhfr. nom C.@[o. 27ctr



IN 197O AND OTHER PRACTICES--OFFICIAL PRACTICES--WHICH

HAVE PREVENTED BLACK PEOPLE FROM NARROWING THE REGISTRATION

GAP, AND ALSO THE SOCIAL BARRIERS TO NARROWING THAT

REGISTRATION GAP, THAT BLACK PEOPLE HAVE RETAINED A

SUBSTANTIALLY LESS POLITICAL REGISTRATION THAN WHITE PEOPLE

HAVE.

THIS IS COMBINED WiTH A PAST HISTORY OF OFFICIAL

AND UNOFFICIAL DISCRIMINATION IN HOUSING AND EDUCATION AND

IN EMPLOYMENT, WHICH ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY OR MAYBE EVEN

SUBSTANTIALLY ENDED TODAY, HAS A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF FIRST

OF ALL EVERY VOTER WHO I S OVER 30 WENT TO TOTALLY SEGREGATE

SCHOOLS; SECOND OF ALL, EVEN CURRENT ScHooL cHILDREN,ToDAY

WHO ARE BLACK HAVE LOWER TEST SCORES, BOTH ON THE COMPEI'ENC

TEST AND ON OTHER ACHIEVEMENTS TESTS; TH}RD; THERE IS

DRAMATIC REMAINING SOCIAL AND RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION IN

THE STATE; AND FOURTH, THE INCOMEi:GAP BETWEEN I,,'ORKING WHITE

PEOPLE IN THE STATE IN EVERY AREA OF THE STATE IS EXTREME

WITH BLACK PEOPLE HAVING SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER INCOME AND

SUBSTANTiAL HIGHER LEVELS OF POVERTY.

THESE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF PAST DISCRIMINATION

ALSO PREVENT BLACK PEOPLE FROM HAVING EQUAL OPPORTUNITY IO

PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICAL SYSTEM.

THE RESULT OF THAT IS SUBSTANTIAL UNDER-

REPRESENTATION OF BLACKS IN ELECTED POSITIONS AT EVERY LEVE

OF GOVERNMENT IN THE STATE, AND ALL OF THIS COMBINES TO

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. tvfAlN OFFICE, RAIE|GH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA,-f p. O. tor 2tlat

LJ B.rcacrr ilfih cmlil 27:ril



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PBECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING. INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779.36t9 976.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

MEAN THAT THE CURRENT RESULT OF THE APPORTIONMENT OF THE

STATE AS THE LEGISLATURE DREW IT--THE CURRENT RESULT OF

PUI'TING THE SUBSTANTIAL CONCENTRATIONS OF MINORITY CITIZENS

INTO DISTRICTS IN WHICI.I-.IN THE DISTRICTS WHICH ARE

DOMINI\TED BY A LARGER GROUP OF WHITE CITIZENS DENIES THEM

THE OPPORTUNITY THAT IS EQUAL OPPORTUNITY TO ELECT

REPRESENTATIVES OF THEIR CHOICE.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: MR. LEONARD.

MR. LEONARD: IF THE COURT PLEASE, THE STATE

WOULD LIKE TO RESERVE ANY OPENING STATEMENT UNTIL THE END

OF THE PLAINTIFFSI CASE.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: LET ME ASK ONE FURTHER QUESTI

HERE THAT I

THE LIST OF

IDENTIFIED

MEMORANDUM.

INFORMED BY

WARREN ?

BLACK. DR.

MCCU L LOUGH

MEANT TO GET CLARIFIED EARLIER. IN LOOKING AT

PUGH PLAINTiFFS, ALL BUT TWO OF THOSE ARE

EITHER AS BLACK OP. WHITE IN THE PRE-TRIAL

TWO ARE NOT IDENTIFIED BY RACE. CAN I BE

COUNSEL AS TO THE RACE OF MS. TROTTER AND MR.

MR. DONALDSON: BOTH ARE WHITE. MR. EGAN IS

ROBERTS FROM MECKLENBURG COUNTY IS BLACK. BASON

IS BLACK.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: MCCULLOUGH, EGAN

I HAVE IT THEN ARE BLACK. AND IT IS THEY WHO

OF 
IN'GINGLES 

CLASS BY DEFINITION.

MR. DONALDSON: YES, 5IR.

AND

ARE

ROB ERTS,

MEMBERS

F 2. O. Bor alct
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX. ARIZONA

MR. LEONARD: I F THE COURT PLEASE, I HAVE

ONE THING WITH RESPECT TO PROCEDURE. I WONDER IF THE COURT

WOULD BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY GIVE US SOME IDEA AS TO THE

HOURS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.JUDGE PHILLIPS: WELL, WE CAN DO THAT RIGI1T

NOW. l^JE INTEND STARTING TOMORROW TO BEGIN AT 9: l0 AND WE

WILL- REGULARLY STARTING TODAY ADJOURN FOR LUNCH AT.--

JUDGE DUPREE: TODAY IT WILL BE L2:45; HERE-

AFTER AT 1:OO OICLOCK. WE WILL TAKE AN HOUR AND A HALF

TODAY.

LIUDGE PHI LLIPS: WE WI LL ADJOURN TODAY AT

L2i45; RECONVENE AT 2:15. I AM LISTENING TO MY MANAGER

HERE.

JUDGE DUPREE: AND RECESS EVERY DAY AT 4:]0.

EXCEPT FOR TODAY, THERE WILL BE A ONE-HOUR LUNCH PERIOD

BETWEEN 1:00 AND 2:00, EXCEPT THAT IF WE HAVE A WITNESS WHO

FINISHES EARLY AND WE DONIT HAVE ANOTHER ONE OR IF WE NEED

TO GO A LITTLE LONGER SOMETIMES TO ACCOMMODATE THAT. BUT

GENERALLY YOLI CAN COUNT ON THOSE HOURS.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: ALL RIGHT. MS. WINNER, I THIN

WE ARE READY TO PROCEED.

MR. LEONARD: ONE OTHER HOUSEKEEPING MATTER

IF THE COURT PLEASES, THE GENTLEMAN SITTING NEXT TO ME IS

DR. HOFFLER (PHONETIC) WHO IS THE STATE'S WITNESS. HE IS

GOING TO BE HERE DURING DR. GROFMANIS TESTIMONY.

F P, O.8or 2lt6
Ll tuhen. xodn C.ro$il 2mrr



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

JUDGE PHILLIPS: THANK YOU. I THINK WE ARE

NOW READY TO PROCEED.

MS. WINNER: THE GINGLES PLAINTIFFS CALL

BERNARD N. GROFMAN.

WHILE DR. GROFMAN IS COMING AND APPROACHING THE

STAND, I HOPE THAT THE COURT HAS FOUND ON YOUR DESKS THREE

SETS OF DOCUMENTS. ONE IS A BLACK NOTEBOOK WHICH CONTAINS

ALL OF PLITINTIFFSI EXHIBITS EXCEPT THERE ARE SOME BULKIER

EXHI BITS IN TWO I,/ORK FOLDERS WHICH ARE ATTACHED--

ACCOMPANY I NG.

r P. O. lor lalal
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

GROFMAN-1 77e-361s 876.15t1
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

F U R T H E P. .. P R O C E E D I N G S 10:26 A.

(wnr nr u PoN,

B,ERNARD N. GROFMAN

WAS CALLED AS A WITNESS, DULY SWORN, AND TESTIFIED AS

noulows: )

D I R ECT E XAM I t.IAT I ON 10:25A.M

BY MR. GROFMAN:

A WILL YOU STATE YOUR NAME, PLEASE?

A BERNARD N. GROFMAN

A WHAT IS YOUR ADDRESS, DR. GROFMAN?

A SCHOOL OF SOC IAL SC I El.lCES, UN IVERS I TY OF

CALIFORNIA; IRVINE--THAT IS I-R-V-I-N-E--CALIFORNIA;

927 L7 .

A WOULD YOU DESCRIBE FOR THE COURT YOUR

E DUCAT I ON ?

A I HAVE AN UNDERGRADUATE DEGREE, BACHELOR OF

SCIENCE, IN MATHEMATICS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO.

I HAVE A MASTERIS DEGREE IN POLITICAL SCIENCE FROM THE

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, RECEIVED IN T968. AND I HAVE A

PH.D. IN POLITICAL SCIENCE RECEIVED FROM THE UNIVERSITY

OF CHICAGO IN I972.

a WHAT ARE YOUR MA.JOR AI?EAS OF SPECIALIZATION?

A I AM A SPECIALIST IN COMPARATIVE ELECTION

F P. O. Bq 2t!.lt
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

SYSTEMS, IN REPRESENTATION AND REDISTRICTING ISSUES,

IN MINORITY REPRESENTATION AND VOTING RIGHTS ACT RELATED

QUESTIONS, IN VOTER TURNOTJT AND ALSO IN POLITICAL AND

STAT I STICAL METHODOLOGY.

HAVE YOU HAD ANY OTHER EXPERIENCE IN COURT

. PROCEEDINGS AS AN EXPERT?

YES; I HAVE.

WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THAT EXPERIENCE?

MY FIRST EXPERIENCE IN THE APPORTIONMENT.

RELATED LITIGATION WAS IN THE STATE OF COLORADO, WHERE I

,1' RETAINED BY THE REPUBLICAN PARTY OT THE STATE OF

COLORADO TO PROVIDE OBJECTIVE EVALUATIONS OF 18 DIFFEREN

PROPOSED CONGRESSIONAL PLANS IN THAT STATE ON A VARIETY

OF CRITERIA, INCLUDING COMPACTNESS, CONTIGUITY, CROSSING

OF COUNTY BOUNDARIES, EQUAL POPULATION, ET CETERA. THAT

TESTIMONY WAS PRESENTED IN THE FORM OF A DEPOSITION.

MY SECOND INVOLVEMENT WITH REAPPORTIONMENT-

RELATED LITIGATION WAS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII, WHERE I

WAS RETAINED BY THE REPUBLICAN PARTY OF THE STATE OF

HAWAII TO PROVIDE EXPERT WITNESS TEST:I:I,IONY IN A SUIT

BROUGHT CHALLENGING THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE PLANS--

LEGISLATIVE PLANS AND CONGRESSIONAL PLANS--OF THE HAI.JAI I

REAPPORT I ONI4ENT COI4M I SS I OI'I.

FOR THAT SUIT I PREPARED AN EXTENSIVE

AFFIDAVIT DISCUSSING IN DETAIL THE PLANS THAT HAD BEEN

A

F P. O.3or 2atGS
lJ R.5ol\ Nortlr C.rcr6. 27!tt

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PBECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.A571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

PROPOSED BY THE REAPPORTIONMENT COMMISSION WITH RESPEC

TO THEIR SATISFACTION OF EQUAL POPULATION STANDARDS;

WITH RESPECT TO THE USE OF A PERI4ISSIBLE APPORTIONMENT

BASE; WITH RESPECT TO POLITICAL GERRYMANDERING; AND ALSo

WITH RESPECT TO THE SATISFACT ION OF PARTICULAR PROVISI,O

OF THE HAWAII STATE CONSTITUTION.

IN THAT CASE THE FEDERAL DISTRICT COURT RULED

THE REAPPORTIONMENT PLANS UNCONSTITUTIONAL ON SEVERAL

DIFFERENT GROUNDS AND REPLACED HAWAII'S MULTI-MEMBER

DISTRICT SYSTEM WITH A SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICT COURT.

ORDERED PLAN.

MY THIRD INVOLVEMENT WITH REAPPORTIONMENT-

RELATED MATTERS OCCURRED WHEN I SERVED AS A CONSULTANT

TO THE SPECIAL MASTER FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT COURT--

FEDERAL DISTRICT COURT--IN NEW YORK. IN NEW YORK THE

STATE LEGISLATURE HAD FAILED TO TIMELY ENACT A LEGISLA-

TIVE PLAN FOR THAT STATE. AND THERE WAS A MOTION CALLI

FOR COURT INTERVENTION TO qRAW A PLAN FOR THE STATE OF

NEW YORK.

THE FEDERAL DISTRICT COURT APPOINTED A SPE-

C IAL MASTER TO DR,Ai.' PLANS--LEGI SLATIVE AND CONGRESS IONAL

FOR THE STATE OF NEW YORK. I WAS RETAINED AS THE CHIEF

ADVISOR TO THE SPECIAL MASTER ON MATTERS OF MINORITY

REPRESENTATION AND VOTING RIGHTS ACT RELATED ISSUES \.IITH

PARTICULAR RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE DISTRICTING OF NEW

F P. O. lor ,trcl
lJ R.brsh. Nodn Crc6r zTctt

GROFMAN-]



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

YORK CITY AND I^,ITH PARTICULAR RESPONSIBILITY FOR

ANALYZING THE DISTRICTING PLANS IN AREAS OF THE STATE

WHERE THERE WERE SUBSTANTIAL CONCENTRATIONS OF BL,ACK

VOTERS--WHETHER OR NOT THOSE PORTIONS OF THE STATE WERE

COVERED BY THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT SECTION 5.

IN MY FOURTH PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE WITH

REAPPORTIONMENT, I WAS RETAINED INITIALLY BY THE DEMOCRA

TIC PARTY OF THE STATE OF RHODE ISLAND AND THEN SUBSE-

QUENTLY BY THE STATE OF RHODE ISLAND ITSELF TO REPRESENT

THE STATE IN LITIGATION INVOLVING A CHALLENGE BROUGHT

T.O THE STATEIS LOWER HOUSE PLAN.

FOR THAT CASE I PRESENTED TESTIMONY ON,A WIDE

VARIETY OF TOPICS INCLUDING THE IMPACT OF THE PLAI.I ON

THE RACIAL REPRESENTATION; THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE PLANI

DISTRICTS WERE COMPACT; THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE PLAN

PRESERVED COMMUNITY AND NEIGHBORHOOD BOUNDARIES; THE

EXTENT TO WHICH THE PLAN WAS A LEAST CHANGED PLAN WITH

RESPECT TO EXISTING BOUNDARIES.

THOSE ARE THE FOUR CASES IN WHICH I HAVE

PREVIOUSLY BEEN INVOLVED.

A HAVE YOU PUBLISHED ANY PAPERS AND BOOKS WHICH

DEAL WITH REAPPORTIONMENT ISSUES?

A OF THE ROUGHLY 60 ARTICLES AND RESEARCH NOTES

WHICH ARE EITHER PUBLISHED OR IN PRINT, AT LEAST A DOZEN

OF THOSE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATION, REDISTRICTING AND

F P. O. Bor 2ttaa
l. R.rd€h. Nonn orofin. ,7alt

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TBANSCBIBING. INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.36't9 A76-1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

RELATED ISSUES. IN ADDITION, I HAVE EDITED ONE BOOK,

REPRESENTATION AND REDISTRICTING ISSUES, OF WHICH I AM

THE SENIIOR EDITOR ALONG WITH TWO POLITICAL SCIENTISTS

AND A PROFESSOR OF LAW AT NEW YORK UNIVERSITY, WHICH IS

SPECIFICALLY ON REPRESENTATION AND REDISTRICTING; AND AM

THE CO-EDITOR OF A FORTHCOMING BOOK CALLED THE ELECTORAL

LAWS AND THEIR POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES.

OF THE DOZEN OR SO PUBLISHED ARTICLES WHICH

I HAVE WRITTEN ON REPRESENTATION AND REAPPORTIONMENT-

RELATED TOPICS, OF PARTICULAR INTEREST MIGHT BE IlCURRENT

ISSUES IN REAPPORTIONMENT)'.'IREFORMERS, POLITICIANS AND

THE COURTSII; ARTICLES THAT HAVE BEEN WRITTEN ON NEW YORK

COUNTY GOVERNMENT; ARTICLES THAT HAVE BEEN WRITTEN

COMPARATIVE ELECTION SYSTEMS, INCLUDING COMPARISONS OF

SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICT, AT-LARGE ELECTION SYSTEMS,

WEIGHTED VOTING SYSTEMS, CUMULATIVE VOTING SYSTEMS,

LIMITED VOTING SYSTEMS, ET CETERA.

I HAVE ALSO WRITTEN AND HAVE FORTHCOMING

ARTICLES ON TOPICS LIKE OPTIMAL PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING

AND THE REPRESENTATION BETWEEN SEATS AND VOTES.

ARE YOU MEMBERS OF ANY RELEVANT PROFESSIONAL

ASSOC IAT I ONS ?

I AM A MEMBER OF A NUMBER OF PROFESSIONAL

ASSOCTATIONS. THE MOST RELEVANT HERE WOULD BE MY MEMBER

SHIP IN THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION AND

F ,, O, lor Lt6
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GROFMAN -5



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE. RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3519 876.1571
PHOENIX. ARIZONA

WITHIN A SUB-GROUP OF THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE

ASSOCIATION, THE CONFERENCE GROUP ON REPRESENTATION AND

ELECTORAL SYSTEMS, WHICH IS A GROUP OF POLITICAL SCIEN-

TISTS WHO ARE SPECIFICALLY INTERESTED IN REPRESENTATION

AND ELECTORAL ISSUES. THAT CONFERENCE GROUP I AM CO-

CHAIR OF.

A DO YOU HAVE ANY GRANTS RECEIVED TO STUDY

APPORTIONMENT ISSUES?

A I HAVE RECEIVED TWO GRANTS FROM THE NATIONAL

SCIENCE FOUNDATION POLITICAL SCIENCE PROGRAI4 TO STUDY

REPRESENTATION ISSUES: ONE ON ELECToRAL SYSTEMS AND

THEIR CONSEQUENCES, ONE SPECIFICALLY ON POLITICAL,

REAPPORTIONMENT--ON .REAPPORTIONMENT AND GERRYMANDERiNG.

IN ADDITION, I RECEIVED FROM THE NATIONAL

SCIENCE FOUNDATION AS THE SENIOR PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR

FUNDING FOR A CONFERENCE ON REPRESENTATION AND REDIS.

TRICTING ISSUES, WHICH TOOK PLACE IN 1980 AND WHICH

RESULTED IN THE EDITED VOLIJME WHICH I PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED

TO. THAT CONFERENCE WAS ALSO FUNDED IN PART BY THE

SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON ELECTION LAW OF THE AMERICAN BAR

ASSOCIATION, TO WHICH I HAVE SERVED AS CONSULTANT.

a

NUMBER 1?

DO YOU HAVE BEFORE YOU PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBTT

(pLRINTI FFS

MARKED FOR

EXHI BI T 'NO. " 1' 'WAS

IDENTIFICATION. )

F P. O. tor 21163
lJ Rrl.lOh, No,rh C.ro{ri. tli!fl

GROFMAN-6



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PRECISTON REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC.

F P. O. Bor 2tt.ll
lJ Rrbroh, taonn cr.cl[ z?!rt

MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A YES; I DO.

A IS THAT AN ACCURATE COPY OF YOURVITAE?

A YES; IT IS.

MS. WINNER: I TENDER DR. GROFMAN

TO THE COURT AS AN EXPERT IN COMPARATIVE ELECTION

SYSTEMS, APPORTIONMENT AND I.4INORITY REPRESENTATION I SSUE

AND STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY AND VOTER TURNOUT.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: WE WILL RECEIVE HIS

EVIDENCE AS qUALIFIED AS STATED BY COUNSEL.

MS. WINNER: THANK YOU.

, BY MS. WINNER:

A DR. GROFMAN, ARE YOU FAMILIAR I,,ITH THE,

APPORTIONMENT PLANS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HOUSE OF

REPRESENTATIVES AND THE NORTH CAROLINA SENATE?

YES; I AM.

A USING PLAINTIFFS' EXHIBIT 2 TO ILLUSTRATE

YOUR TESTIMONY, WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE APPORTIONMENT PL

OF THE SENATE TO THE COURT? AND I BELIEVE THE COURT

WILL FIND IN YOUR NOTEBOOKS A SMALLER VERSION OF THE

LARGE MAP.

(PUAINTIFFS EXHIBIT NO. 2 WAS

MARKED FOR IDENTIFICATION.)

A NOW, GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE MAPS IT MAY BE

ALMOST AS EASY FOR ME TO DO THIS FROM THE WITNESS STAND.

I WILL APPROACH THE MAPS WHEI'I THAT SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

GROFI.,IAN - 7



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

IN READING THE MAP THAT HAS BEEN PREPARED

OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PRESE}.ITLY EXISTING SENATE PLAN,

THE FIRST FEATURE OF THAT MAP THAT I hIOULD WISH TO CALL

THE COURT'S ATTENTION TO IS THE USE OF BLUE. THE

DISTRICTS WHICH ARE SHOWN IN BLUE ON THE LARGE MAP ARE

DISTRICTS WHICH ARE OVER 5O PERCENT IN BLACK POPULATION.

THAT IS THE BASE MAP. THERE IS ALSO AN OVER-

LAY PROVIDED. THE OVERLAY INDICATES THOSE COUNTIES--

I+O COUNT I ES IN NUMBER--WI THI N THE STATE OF I.JORTH

CAROLINA I^JHICH ARE COVERED BY THE VOTING RIGI1TS ACT. AS

THE COURT MAY SEE, WHEN ONE PUTS THE YELLOW OVERLAY OVER

THE MAP, THOSE PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHICH ARE DISTRICTS

WHICH ARE 50 PERCENT OR OVER IN BLACK POPULATION SHOW UP

AS GREEN, SO THAT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE OVERLAY

TO FIND THE PORTIONS OR THE DISTRICTS IN THE STATE WHICH

ARE OVER 50 PERCENT IN POPULATION. 
)

THE LARGE NUMBERS THAT ARE SHOWN ON THAT MAP

ARE NUMBERS WHICH INDICATE.THE OFFICIAL DISTRICT NUMBERS

IN THE NORTH CAROLINA SENATE. THE SMALLER NUMBERS WHICH

ARE SHOWN ON THE MAP--AND HERE LET ME SIMPLY POINT TO

WHAT I MEAN. HERE WE HAVE A LARGE NUMBER, ,,29,II WHICH

WOULD BE DISTRICT NUMBER 29. HERE IVE HAVE A. SMALL

NUMBER, rr2 . rr rr2rr WOULD IND ICATE THE NUMBER 0F REPRESEN-

TATIVES TO BE FOUND WITHIN THAT DISTRICT. SO THAT WOULD

THEREFORE BE A I4ULTI -MEMBER DI STRICT.

F P. O. lor i'tt6lt
LJ eddoft. }lorrli Cryoatm 1?0ll

GRO FMAN- 8



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCR!BING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.157)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

IN DEVISING THE PLAN WHICH IS REPRESENTED

ON EXHIBIT NUMBER 2 SHOWN TO MY LEFT, IN THE COVERED

PORTIONS OF THE STATE--THAT IS, IN THOSE COUNTIES COVERE

BY SECTION 5 OF THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT--THERE WERE EIGHT

COUNTIES WHICH WERE DIVIDED IN THE CREATION OF SENATE

DISTRICTS: GUILFORD, CUMBERLAND, NASH, EDGECOMBE,

HALIFAX, MARTIN, BEAUFORT AND WASHINGTON.

IN THE NON-COVERED COUNTIES OF THE STATE,

THERE WERE FOUR COUNTIES WHICH WERE DIVIDED, THOSE FOUR

COUNTIES BEING PENDER, WAKE, FORSYTH AND ORANGE.

. 
FOR SIMPLICTTY, iN ORDER TO MAKE THE MAP MORE

READILY ACCESSIBLE, THE AREAS OF THE STATE WHICH HAVE

BEEN DIVIDED--THAT IS, THE COUNTIES IN THE STATE WHICH

HAVE BEEN DIVIDED ACROSS MORE THAN ONE ELECTION DISTRICT

OR HAVE BEEN DIVIDED TO FORM MORE THAN ONE ELECTION

DISTRICT--TOWNSHIPS ARE SHOWN.

AGAIN, IT MIGHT BE SIMPLER FOR ME TO POINT OU

THIS FEATURE OF THE MAP. IF WE LOOK, FOR EXAMPLE, AT

GUILFORD, GUILFORD UNLIKE DAVIDSON HAS THE TOWNSHIP AREA

INDICATED IN THE MAP. GUILFORD HAS BEEN DIVIDED TO FORM

A SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT AND A MULTI-MEMBER DISTRTCT.

SIMILARLY, NASH, EDGECOMBE, MARTIN, ET CETERA, ARE

COUNTIES WHERE TOWNSHIPS ARE SHOWN. AND THE FACT THAT

TOWNSHIPS ARE SHOWN ON THIS MAP IS AN INDICATION THAT TH

COUNTY HAS BEEN DIViDED FOR THE PURPOSE OF CREATING NORT

F ?. O. ld 2al0l
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GROFMAN- 9



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 A76.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

CAROLINA SENATE DISTRICTS.

THERE ARE TWO OTHER FEATURES OF THE MAP. I

MIGHT NOTE, BY THE WAY, THAT COUNTY LINES, OF COURSE, AR

SHOWN IN BLACK. AND DISTRICT LINES ARE SIJOWN IN MULTI-

MEMBER BLACK. SOMETiMES IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO READ

THESE. BUT FOR EXAMPLE, HERE WE I.IOULD HAVE_-AS I TRACE

THIS DARK BLACK LINE, THIS WOULD INDICATE A MULTI-MEI.4BER

DISTRICT, THE LARGER NUMBER It28I' INDiCATING THE NUMBER

OF THE DISTRICT, THE SMALLER NUMBER "'" INDICATING THE

NUMBER OF REPRESENTATIVES IN THAT MI,ILTI-MEMBER DISTRICT.

THERE ARE TWO OTHER GENERAL POINTS THAT MIGHT

BE MADE ABOUT THiS MAP OF THE NORTH CAROLINA SENATE.

FIRST LET ME NOTE THAT THE ONLY DISTRICTS WTiICN ANC

MAJORITY BLACK IN POPULATION ARE DISTRICTS WI-IICH OCCUR

IN COUNTIES WHICH ARE COVERED BY THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT.

AND SECONDLY, I WOULD NOTE THAT THE ONLY

MA\'ORITY BLACK DISTRICTS WHICH OCCUR IN THE SENATE MAP

ARE IN AREAS WHERE COUNTIES-HAVE BEEN DIVIDED.

A DR. GROFMAN, YOU INDICATED THAT THE THICKER

BLACK LINES INDICATE MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS. ARE THE

THICKER BLACK LINES ALSO AROUND SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS?

A YES. THE THICKER BLACK LINES MAY ALSO INDI-

CATE SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS WHERE THOSE ARE MULTI-COUN

SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS. THANK YOU FOR THE CORRECTION.

A USING PLAINTIFFI S EXHI BIT NUMBER 3, I.'ILL YOU

F P. O.8or 28lal
u Rd.lcar, Hodh C.ro{M a7Gfi

GROFMAN- 1 O



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING. INC. MAIN OFfICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PI{OENIX, ARIZONA

DESCRIBE FOR THE COURT THE CURRENT PLAN OF APPORTION-

MENT OF THE HOUSE?

(pIaINTI FFS E:K',II BIT .No. 3 wAS

MARKED FoR IDENTIFIcATToI.I. )

AGAIN, BEFORE DESCRIBING THE PLAN LET ME

SIMPLY DESCRIBE THE MAP SO THAT EVERYONE MAY BE CLEAR AS

TO HOW TO READ ITS FEATURES. ONCE AGAIN, THE BLUE AREAS

REPRESENT DISTRICTS WHICH ARE OVER 5O PERCENT IN BLACK

POPULATION. THE GREEN AREA SHOWN ON THAT MAP IS A DIS-

TRICT WHICH IS MA.JORITY BLACK IN VOTER REGISTRATION. I

BELIEVE THAT IS DISTRICT NUMBER L7. . t.

THE COUNTIES COVERED BY SECTION 2 O'F Tl,lE

VOTING RIGHTS ACT ARE AGAIN SHOWN VIA OVERLAY. AND OF

COURSE, THE OVERLAY OF THESE COUNTIES IS IDENTICAL TO

THAT IN THE SENATE PLAN, SINCE THE SAME COUNTIES ARE

COVERED FOR BOTH THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE.

AGAIN, FOR 
"*"ICITY 

OF READING THE MAP THE

BASE COLOR OF BLUE AND OF GREEN HAS BEEN CHOSEN IN SUCH

A WAY;THAT WHEN THE OVERLAY IS PUT ON IT IS POSSIBLE TO

STILL SEE THE DISTRICTS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA HOUSE WHIC

ARE EITHER MAJORITY BLACK IN POPULATION OR MAJORITY BLA

IN VOTER REGISTRATION. IN THE NUMBERING OF HOUSE DIS.

TR I CT S, THE ; US E' 'OF.^lSPlAtl- I NUMBER$,'rTQ,,: I.NDI CAf Ei'THE ' NUM BER

OF REPRESENTATIVESI I.N. A DISTRI.CT:I'S .COMPARA.BLE ..tN THE .

HOUSE .['IIAP.'AND:: IN]:THE SENATE'MAFi. ..]'. ' ' , I..'

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PREGISION REPORTING
, AND TRANSCRIBING, !NC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.36r9 876.4571

PrloENrx, ARtzoi.lA

THERE ARE SEVERAL POINTS TO BE MADE ABOUT

THE NORTH CAROLINA HOUSE MAP. FIRST OF ALL, IN THE

COVERED .JURISDICTIONS--THE 4O COUNTIES COVERED UNDER

SECTION 5 OF THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT--THERE ARE 11 COUNTIE

WHICH HAVE BEEN DIVIDED. THEY INCLUDE DISTRICT L7,

WHICH INCTUDES PART OF CUMBERLAND; DISTRICT 5, BERTIE,

GATES, HERTFORD AND NORTHAMPTON; DISTRICT NUI4BER 7,

HALIFAX AND MARTIN AND ALSO WARREN, WHICH IS NOT A

sEcTION 5 COVERED COUNTY; DISTRICT NUMBER 26, GUILFORD--

AND ALSO PART OF GUILFORD, RANDOLPH, WHICH IS AGAIN NOT

A. SECTION 5 COVERED COUNTY. BUT IN ANY. CASEr; A TOTAL OF

11 COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DIVIDED. ANID I REPEAT THAT,

COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEEN DIVIDED ARE INDICATED BY PLACI

IN THOSE COUNTIES THE TOWNSHIP BOUNDARY DEMARCATION

LINES AS A SIGNAL THAT THESE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DIVIDED

I N .THE HOUSE REAPPORT I ONMENT O

IN THE NON-COVERED PORTIONS OF THE STATE, 15

COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DIVIDED. THEY ARE HENDERSON, WATAUGA

AVERY, BURKE, IREDELL, ALEXANDER, CATAWBA, STOKES,

FORSYTH, RANDOLPH, CI.IATHAM, WARREN, PENDER, GRAHAM AND

NEW HANOVER. I HAVE DELIBERATELY GONE OVER THIS PERHAPS

TOO FAST. BUT SINCE THIS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN

THE STIPULATION, IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE'TO'PROCEED ON.

'.:.THERE ARE TWO OTHER POINTS THAT SHOULD BE

MADE ABOUT THE NORTH CAROLINA HOUSE MAP. FIRST, AS WITH

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC.

t O. lq lllas
ilafrr Lo.rr Carotil z'.tt

MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX. ARIZONA

THE SENATE MAP, THE ONLY MAJORITY BLACK POPULATION OR

MAJORITY BLACK IN REGISTRATION DISTRICTS ARE DISTRICTS

WHICH OCCUR WITHIN THE COUNTIES COVERED UNDER SECTION 5

OF THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT. AND SECONDLY, THE ONLY

MATJORITY BLACK OR MAJORITY BLACK IN REGISTRATION

DISTRICTS ARE THOSE WHICH OCCUR IN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE

BEEN DIVIDED.

MS. WINNER: AT THIS POINT I MOVE

PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBITS 2 AND 3 INTO EVIDENCE, AS WELL AS

EXHIBIT t, WHICH I FORGOT TO MOVE IN A MOMENT AGO.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: THEY ARE I:'OIVED.
(pLAINTI EFs'.!xHTBTT,:Nos',1 .! r, 2 AND

, WERE RECEIVED IN-EVTDENCE.)

BY MS. WINNER:

A DR. GROFMAN, ARE YOU FAMILIAR }TITH THE

LITERATURE CONCERNING MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS?

A YES; I AM.

a l^loulD you DESCRIBE TO THE COURT OR COMPARE FO

THE COURT THE FEATURES OF MULTI.MEMBER DISTRTCTS WITH

THE FEATURES OF SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS?

A THERE ARE SEVERAL..THERE ARE FIVE BASIC

FEATURES OF MULTI-MEMBER DISTRTCTS WHICH I WOULD WISH TO

'CONTRAST WITH FEATURES OF SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS.

FIRST, EXCEPT UNDER THE UNLIKELY CIRCUMSTANCE THAT DIS-

TRICTS ARE PERFECTLY HOMOGENEOUS IN THEIR POPULATION

GROFMAN- 1 ]



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. l ArN oFFlcE, RALETGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

P}OENIX, ARIZONA

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS TEND TO SUBMERGE RACIAL OR

OTHER MINORITIES. RELATEDLY, LARGE MULTI-MEMBER DIS-

TRICTS REDUCE POLITiCAL COMPETITION AND INCENTIVES TO

VOTER TURNOUT BECAUSE OF THE WINNER TAKE ALL NATURE

FEATURE OF MULTI-MEMB.ER DISTRICTS. THE MA*JORITY OF

VOTERS IN A MULTI-MEMBER, DISTRICT CAN AND USUALLY DOES

ELECT ALL OF THE REPRESENTATIVES TO THAT DISTRICT.

VOTERS WHO SEE NO CHANCE OF A CANDIDATE OF

THEIR CHOICE BEING ELECTED ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE.

MINORITY VOTERS WHO MAY COMPRISE PORTIONS OF A COMPETI-

T.IVE SINGLE-MEMBER DI STRICT OR A MAJOR.ITY, BLACK SINGLE-

MEMBER DISTRICT ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE SUBMERGED BY

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS, ESPECIALLY LARGE MULTI.MEMBER

DISTRICTS.

a woulD YoU DESCRIBE FOR THE COURT OR DEFINE

FOR THE COURT WHAT YOU MEAN BY ''SUBMERGED'' ?

YES. AS I DEFINE SUBMERGENCE, THERE ARE THRE

COMPONENTS TO SUBMERGENCE TN A MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT.

FIRST, THERE MUST BE A SUFFICIENT CONCENTRATION OF BLACK

VOTING STRENGTH SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED SO AS TO FORM

A MAJORITY OF A POTENTIAL SINGLE.MEMBER DISTRICT.

SECONDLY,THEPRESENTBLACKVOTINGSTRENGTH

MUST CONSTITUTE A MINORITY OF THE VOTERS IN THE EXISTING

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT. THIRDLY, VOTING WITHIN THE MULTI

MEMBER DISTRICT MUST BE RACIALLY POLARTZED.

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P. O. lor ItaS

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PRECISION REPORTTNG
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 A76.a571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

a THANK yOU. ARE THERE OTHER COMPARISONS

BETWEEN THE FEATURES OF MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS AND

S INGLE-MEMBER DI STRI CTS?

YES. SO FAR I HAVE INDICATED ONLY THE FIRST

OF SUCH COMPARISONS, THE ISSUE OF SUBMERGENCE AND IMPACT

ON TURNOUT. THE SECOND COMPARISON IS ONE HAVING TO DO

WITH THE BASE OF GEOGRAPHIC REPRESENTATION. MULTI-MEMBE

DISTRTCTS ALMOST NEVER GIVE EQUAL REPRESENTATION TO ALL

OF THE GEOGRAPHIC AREAS WITHIN THE LARGER MULTI-MEMBER

DISTRICT. AND LARGE SETS OF VOTERS..AND IN PARTICULAR,

BLACK VOTERS--MAY HAVE NO REPRESENTATIVE OR LESS THAN

EQUAL OPPORTUNITY TO ELECT REPRESENTAT;VES WHO.RESIDE

IN THEIR NEIGHBORHOOD.

A ARE THERE FURTHER FEATURES OF MULTI.MEMBER

DISTRICTS AS COMPARED TO SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS?

. A THE THIRD FEATURE TS THAT TN A }4ULTI.MEMBER

DISTRI.CT THE LINK BTTWETN A CONSTITUTENT AND HIS OR

HER REPRESENTATIVE IS WEAKENED RELATIVE TO WHAT IT WOULD

BE IN A SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT.

IN A MULTI.MEMBER DISTRICT, COMMON SENSICALLY

IT IS LESS CLEAR WHO A VOTER OUGHT TO GO TO TO DEAL WITH

NEIGHBORHOOD-RELATED PROBLEMS. THERE DOES NOT EXIST A

ONE.TO-ONE LINKAGE BETWEEN VOTER AND REPRESENTATIVES.

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS ARE PARTICULARLY

PERNICIOUS IN THEIR EFFECTS WHEN THE MULTI.MEMBER

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

REPRESENTATIVES-.THAT IS, WHEN THOSE ELECTED FROM THE

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT--LIVE IN ONLY SOME SECTIONS OF

THE MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT. AND WHOLE LARGE POPULATIONS,

INCLUDING MINORITY POPULATIONS, HAVE NO REPRESENTATIVE

WHO LIVES IN THEIR NEIGHBORHOOD OR ONLY LIMITED REPRE-

SENTATION FROM THEIR NEIGHBORHOOD; AND THUS HAVE NO

INDIVIDUAL REPRESENTING THEM WHO COULD BE EXPECTED TO BE

FAMILIAR WITH SPECIAL ISSUES THAT ARISE ON A NEIGHBOR-

HOOD BASIS OR PORTION OF CITY BASIS.

MR. LEONARD: IF THE COURT PLEASE,

COULD I HAVE A VOIR DIRE OF THE WITNESS FOR JUST A MOMEN

ON THOSE NOTES?

JUDGE PHI.LLIPS: CERTAINLY.

VOIR IRE 10:50 A.M.

. BY MR. LEONARD:

a DocToR, ene THosE THE NOTES THAT yOU USED

TO PREPARE GINGLES EXHIBIIT NUMBER 11, WHI.CH IS ENTITLED

TITHE EFFECTS OF I.4ULTI.MEMBER STATE HOUSE AND STATE

SENATE DISTRICTS IN EIGHT NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIESII?

A THEY ARE NOTES WHICH ARE EXTENSIONS OF THAT

EXHIBIT. THEY ARE NOT IDENTICAL.

a ARE YOU FOLLOWING FROM YOUR NOTES THERE THE

FORMAT THAT YOU HAVE LAID OUT IN THIS EXHIBIT?

A ALMOST EXACTLY. I AM NOT PERFECTLY DOING SO,

F P. O. lor 2ttal
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE. RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PI{O€NIX, ARIZONA

SINCE I HAVE REFLECTED FURTHER SINCE THAT EXHIBIT WAS

PREPARED.

MR. LEONARD: MAY I APPROACH THE WIT-

NESS, YOUR HONOR, TO EXAMINE THOSE NOTES?

(couNsrI PERUSES DocUMENTS. )

WELL, IF THE COURT PLEASE, I AM GOING TO HAVE

ASK THE COURT TO DIRECT THE WITNESS TO SLOW DOWN A BIT,

BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN PROVIDED WITH WHAT WE WERE TOLD WAS

A SUMMARY OF HIS TESTIMONY. AND HE IS NOT FOLLOWING

THAT SUMMARY. AND I CANI T WRITE :FAST ENOUGH TO MAKE THE

NOTES. HE AFPARENTLY IS USING SOME NOTES HE RECENTLY

PREPARED. '

I AM NOT SUGGESTING IT IS NOT THE SAT4E. BUT

I CANIT FOLLOW IT. I WOULD ESSENTIALLY ASK THE COURT TO

ASK THE WITNESS IF HE WOULD SLOW DOWN.

THE WITNESS: WITH APOLOGIES TO COUNSE

FOR SPEAKING TOO FAST, I WILL CERTAINLY ATTEMPT TO SLOW

DOWN TO PERMIT NOTE TAKING.

TJUDGE PHILLIPS: WELL, MR. LEONARD IF YOU

WILL HELP US BY RAISING YOUR HAND IF YOU ARE HAVING

DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIME, MAYBE WE CAN RULE ON IT.

MR. LEONARD:

BY MR. LEONARD:

I WILL TRY, YOUR HONOR.

A DR. GROFMAN, WHAT NUMBER ARE YOU ON IN THE

CHRONOLOGY THAT YOU HAVE BEFORE YOU?

A t O. aqr tat6
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PRECISION BEPORTING
AND TMNSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A I AM ON NUMBER 3.

.JUDGE PHILLIPS:

THE WITNESS:

YOU MAY PROCEED.

AND I HAVE NOW COMPLETED

ITEM NUMBER 3, WHICH DEALT WITH A LINK BETWEEN A CONSTI

TUENT AND HIS REPRESENTATIVE, COMPARING THAT LINK IN

SINGLE-MEMBER VERSUS MULTI.MEMBER DISTRICTS.

THE FOURTH POINT THAT I WOULD MAKE IS THAT

CAMPAIGNS IN MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS COST CONSIDERABLY

MORE TO RUN THAN CAMPAIGNS IN SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS,

WHICH ARE, OF COURSE, GOING TO BE SMALLER IN SIZE. THUS

M.INORITIES IN OTHER LESS WEALTHY SEGMENTS OF THE SOCIETY

ARE GOING TO FIND IT DIFFICULT TO RUN SUCCESSFUL CAM- :

PAIGNS IN LARGE, MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS BECAUSE OF THE

BARRIERS IMPOSED BY ADDITIONAL COSTS

THE FIFTH POINT I WOULD MAKE.-WHICH I BELIEVE

IS.POINT NUMBER 6 IN THE TEXT. THERE ARE SOME MINOR

POINTS WHICH I AM SKIPPING OVER SIMPLY FOR SAKE OF

BREVITY. THE FIFTH POINT {. WOULD MAKE IS THAT MULTI.

MEMBER DISTRICTS FAIL TO SATISFY A CRITERION WHICH

POLITICAL SCIENTISTS HAVE PROPOSED IT IMPORTANT FOR ANY

ELECTION SYSTEM TO SATISFY. THAT IS A CRITERION CALLED

CONS I STENCY.

DIRECT EXAMINATION
(RESUMED)

10:54 A.

BY MS. WINNER:

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I,^/HAT IS C0i..ISISTENCY?

A ii/El-L, IT TS EASIER TO DEFINE INCONSISTEI,ICy,

IF I MAY. AN ELECTION SYSTEM IS INCONSISTENT IF IT IS

POSSIBLE FOP. A CANDIDATE TO WII'] IN EVERY PRECII,ICT OR

EVERy COUNTy, SAy, I N A MULT I -COUNTy, l4L'LT I _MEMBER

DISTRiCT-_I F IT I S POSS IBLE TO WIN IN EVERY PREC INCT

OR IN EVERY COUNTY AND STILL LOSE THE ELECTION.

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS AS THEY OPERATE IN

NORTH CAROLINA ARE THEORETICALLY INCONSISTENT; WHEREAS

SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS ALWAYS SATISFY THE CONSISTENCY

REQUIREMENT,

A DR. GROFMAN, HAVE YOU EXAI4INED THE NORTH

CAROLINA APPORTIONMENT PLAN TO DETERMII'JE I.IHETHER, OR NOT

THESE THEORETiCAL PROBLEMS EXIST II.J t'IORTH CAROLTNA?

YES; I HAVE.

A CALLING YOUR ATTENTION TO THE FIRST FEATURE

THAT YOU POINTED OUT--THAT OF SUB}4ERGENCE--HAVE YOU FOUN

THAT SUBMERGENCE OCCURS IN NORTH CAROLINA?

I HAVE INDEED FOUND THAT SUBMERGENCE OCCURS

NORTH CAROL I T.IA.

a cAN YOU USE pLAil.tTIFFSr EXIIIBITS 4 THROUGI1 9

SHOI^I TO THE COURT THE FIRST FEATURE OF YOUR DEFII.JIT i

SUB|,IERGENCE ?

(PI.Ai}ITT FFS 
=XHI 

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q l'iF-P.i: i'iAFlKF:L) i:CP, T irEll: I

IN

TO

OF

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PFECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MArN OFFTCE, RAtitcrl, ti32 9085

77?--.:5\9 Ei6.!ilt.
PHOEr{lX ARTZONAa P. C.6o1 2Eis

LJ R.bEh. Ncdh C.iolr^. 270t r

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBINO, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT 4 IS A MAP OF THE

PRESENTLY EXISTING HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER 
'6 

IN MECKLEN-

BURG COUNTY, WHICH IS AN EIGHT-MEMBER DISTRICT. ON THAT

MAP, AREAS OF BLACK VOTER REGISTRATION CONCENTRATION ARE

SHOWN. THE LIGHT BLUE AREAS INDICATE AREAS VJITH 50 TO

65 PERCENT BLACK VOTEP. REGISTRATION. THE AREAS OF DARK

BLUE INDICATE AREAS WITH 65 PERCENT AND OVER IN PERCENT

BLACK VOTER REGISTRATION.

AS IS APPARENT FROM VISUAL INSPECTION OF THAT

MAP, BLACK VOTING STRENGTH IS, IN FACT, CONCENTRATED.

THE AREAS OF BLUE AND LIGHT BLUE FORM..A YORE OR LESS

CoNTIGUOUS SECTTON rN THE CENTRAU PART 0F THE COUNTY.

q DR. GROFMAN, WHAT IS THE GRAY LINE ON THAT

MAP.-ON THE BIG MAP?

A THE GRAY LINE ON THE LARGE MAP INDICATES THE

CIT.Y BOUNDARY. IN TH.IS CASE, SINCE THIS IS MECKLENBURG

couNTy, THE CITY WOULD BE CHARLOTTE, IN GENERAL, ON

ALL OF THE MAPS WE WILL BE.LOOKING AT CITY BOUNDARIES

ARE SHOWN IN GRAY.

IT IS POSSIBLE, THEREFORE--LOOKING AT THE MAP,

IT IS CLEAR THAT THERE EXISTS A MINORITY CONCENTRATION

GEOGRAPHICALLY. IT IS ALSO CLEAR, LOOKING AT THE DATA

ON THE SIZE OF THE MINORITY POPULATION WITHIN THAT

GEOGRAPHIC CONCENTRATION, THAT IT IS POSSIBLE TO FORM A

SINGLE-}4EMBER DISTRICT WITH A MAJORITY BLACK POPULATION.

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFrcE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.457t
PIiOENIX, ARIZONA

INDEED, GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE IN BOTH SIZE

GEOGRAPFIICALLY AI.ID SIZE NUMERICALLY OF THE BLACK POPULA-

TION WITHIN THAT CLEARLY CONCENTRATED AREA, IT IS

POSSIBLE TO FORM TWO SINGLE.MEMBER DISTRICTS EACH WITH

A MAJORITY BLACK OR MORE POPULATION.

IF WE LOOK AT THE OVERLAY, WHICH IS SHOWN IN

RED, THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE RED LINES REPRESENTS'AN

ILLUSTRATIVE SINGLE--ACTUALLY, TWO SINGLE-MEMBER DIS-

TRICTS: ONE OF THESE IN THE RIGHT-HAND PORTION, THE

OTHER IN THE LEFT.HAND PORTION. AGAIN, IT MIGHT BE A

LITTLE EASIER TO APPROACH THE MAP TO MAKE THIS CLEAR TO

THE COURT

HERE WE HAVE.-AND I WI LL TRACE OUT THE

BOUNDARIES--ONE DISTRICT, WHICH IS THE UPPER DISTRICT

LABELED IIDISTRICT NUMBER 2.II AND HERE AGAIN, I WILL

TRACE OUT THE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE ANOTHER SINGLE-MEMBER

DISTRICI, WHICH IS LABELED I'SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT NUMBER

1 llJ..

. MS;, WINNER: : . . '- ':AND .FOR CLAR,I FICATLON,,

ON THE SMALL MAPS WE HAVE COMBINED THE FIRST AND SECOND

OVERLAY. SO FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS TESTIMONY, THE

COURT MAY IGNORE THE LITTLE NUMBERS IN THE LITTLE SQUARE

BOXES.

THE T.IITNESS: AS WE LOOK AT THE ILLUS-

TRATIVE SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS WHICH ARE SHOWN IN RED,

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PRECISION REPORTINGI
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

IT IS CLEAR THAT THEY ENCOMPASS SUBSTANTIAL PORTIONS

OF THE MINORITY CONCENTRATION AREAS. THE FIRST DISTRICT

THE LOWER DISTRICT, DISTRICT NU}IBER 1--IS A DISTRICT

WHICH HAS A 66.1 PERCENT BLACK POPULATION. THE UPPER

DISTRICT, DISTRICT NUMBER 2, HAS A 7I.2 PERCENT BLACK

POPULAT I ON.

THUS, BOTH THE FIRST TWO CONDITIONS FOR

SUBMERGENCE--THAT IS TO SAY, THE EXISTENCE OF A SUFFI-

CIENTLY CONCENTRATED AND SUFFICIENTLY POPULOUS BLACK

VOTING GROUP TO FORM SINGLE.MEMBER DISTRICTS AND THE

EXISTENCE OF A MULTI.MEMBER DISTRICT.I.N WHICH BLACKS

CONSTITUTE A MINORITY OF THE TOTAL DISTRICT.-BOTH,OF

THESE ARE SATISFIED.

BY MS. WINNER:

A WHAT IS THE BLACK POPULATION OF THE CURRENT

DISTRICT?

A THE BLACK POPULATION OF THE CURRENT DISTRICT

IS 26.5 PERCENT

a THANK YoU. WOULD YOU PRoCEED?

MR. LEONARD: EXCUSE ME, DR. GROFMAN.

ONE VOIR DIRE QUESTION, IF I MTGHT: WHO ACTUALLY CREATE

THAT DISTRICT?

THE WITNESS: I BELIEVE THE DISTRICT

WAS CREATED BY A MEMBER OF THE NORTH CAROLINA LEGISLATIV

STAFF.

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSGRIBING, INC. l AtN oFFtcE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 576.1571
PHOENIX, ANIZONA

MR. LEONARD: IN OTHER WORDS, YOU

DIDNIT DESIGN THAT DISTRICT?

THE WITNESS: THAT IS CORRECT. IF I

MAY, THESE DISTRICTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY.

BY MS. WINNER:

a woulD you pRocEED TO EXPLATN I{HETHER OR NOT

THE FIRST TWO CONDITIONS EXIST IN FORSYTH COUNTY?

A YES. TURNING NOW TO PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT 5--

AND I WILL WAIT, IF IT PLEASE THE COURT, UI.ITIL THE MAP

IS UP.

PAUSE. )

ONCE AGAIN, THE BASE MAP SHOWS BLACK POPULA.:'

TION--I AM SORRY..BLACK VOTER REGISTRATION WITH THE DARK

BLUE AREA REPRESENTING AREAS WHICH ARE 65 PERCENT AND

OVER IN BLACK VOTER REGISTRATION AND THE LIGHT BLUE AREA

R,EPRESENTING AREAS WHICH ARE 50 TO 65 PERCENT IN BLACK

VOTER REGISTRATION.

A DR. GROFMAN, ON -THAT MAP THERE IS IN THE

NORTHEAST PART OF THE MAP A DARK LINE AND A LIGHT LINE.

CAN YOU POINT OUT TO THE COURT WHICH IS THE DISTRICT

LINE AND WHAT THE OTHER LINE IS?

A LET ME SEE. I Ar4 NOT QUITE---

a (INTERPOSING) CAN YoU SHOW THE COURT THE

DISTRICT LINE FOR THAT MAP?

A LETIS SEE. I BELIEVE THAT THE DISTRICT LINE

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PRECISION REPORTING
ANDTRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

FOR THAT MAP IS GOII{G TO BE--THE DARK LINE WOTJLD BE TH

COUNTY LINE. THE GRAY LINE REPRESENTS THE CITY LINE.

AND I AM NOT CLEAR, MS. WINNER, AS TO WHAT OTHER LINE YO

ARE ASKING ME TO CALL THE COURTIS ATTENTION TO.

IF I MIGHT, I BELIEVE THE MAP SHOWS ALL OF

FORSYTH COUNTY. ,rAND ]'HE UPPER LEFT-HAND CORNER OF THE

MAP--THAT AREA IS THE PART THAT IS NOT IN THE DISTRICT?

I AM SORRY.

THE PART THAT THE CAVANAGH PLAINTIFFS WERE

COMPLAINING ABOUT?

YES. CORRECTIoN ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED.

THE LINE AS IT DRAWN HERE IS,THE LINE: THE BLACK LINE

IS THE LINE FOR THE DISTRICT. THERE IS A PORTION OF THE

COUNTY--IN THIS CASE, SALEM CHAPEL AND BELEWS CREEK--

WHICH ARE IN THE COUNTY BUT NOT PART OF THE DISTRICT.

.. AGAIN, AS WE CAN SEE, BLACK POPULATION WITHIN

FORSYTH IS DRAMATTCAiUY CONCENTRATED. THERE IS A CON-

TIGUOUS OR NEAR-CONTIGUOUS CONCENTRATION OF BLACK

popuLATroN. FURTHERMORE, THAT CONCENTRATION OF POPULA-

TION IS SUFFICIENTLY I.IUMEROUS TO FORI4 THE BASIS FOR A

S INGLE-MEMBER DI STRICT.

THE OVERLAY PROVIDES AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

OF SUCH AN HYPOTHETICAL SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT FOR THE

COUNTY. THAT OVERLAY, AGAIN, AS CAN BE SEEN VISUALLY,

ENCOMPASSES A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE BLACK HEAVILY--

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779.36t9 876.1571
PI{OENIX, ARIZONA

THE BLACK CONCENTRATION IN FORSYTH COUNTY, WHICH IS

ALSO PRIMARILY WITHIN THE CITY OF WINSTON.SALEM. AND

THE BLACK POPULATION WITHIN THAT ILLUSTRATIVE SINGLE-

MEMBER DISTRICT WOULD BE 7O PERCENT.

ALL RIGHT. CONTINUE.

THE POPULATION OF FORSYTH AS A WHOLE--I AM

SORRY. THE PERCENTAGE BLACK POPULATION IN FORSYTH AS A

wHoLE, FORSYTH COUNTY--THAT PORTION OF IT WHICH IS IN

HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER 39.-IS 25.L PERCENT. SO AGAIN,

BLACKS WOULD FORM A MA.JORITY OF THE SINGLE-MEMBER

D.ISTRICT AND ARE A CLEAR MINORITY WITHIN THE EXISTING

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT. BOTH CONDITIONS ONE AND TWO OF

THE DEFINITION OF SUBMERGENCE I HAVE GIVEN WOULD THERE-

FORE BE SATISFIED.

A USING EXHIBIT NUMBER 6(A) TO ILLUSTRATE YOUR

TESTIMONY, WOULD YOU DEMONSTRATE THE FIRST TWO CRITERIA

FOR SUBMERGENCE IN DURHAM COUNTY?

(PURTNTIFF EXHIBIT NO. 5(A) WA

MARKED FOR IDENTIFICATION.

LOOKING AT THE MAP OF DURHAM COUNTY, THE

GRAY AREA-.THE LIGHT GRAY AREAS DEFINE THE CITY OF

DURHAM. WE SEE ONCE AGAIN THAT THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL

CONCENTRATION OF BLACK POPULATION. THE AREAS SHOWN IN

DARK BLUE ARE THOSE WHICH ARE 65 PERCENT AND OVER IN

BLACK VOTER REGISTRATION. THE AREAS IN LIGHT BLUE ARE

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. AAAIN OFFIG, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PI,IoENIX, ARIZONA

AREAS WHICH ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 65 PERCENT IN BLACK

VOTER, REGISTRATION. CLEARLY, BLACK POPULATION IS

SUFFI CI ENTLY CONCENTRATED.

FURTHERMORE, IF WE MAY LOOK AT THE OVERLAY,

IT IS POSSIBLE TO DRAW A BLACK DISTRICT--THAT IS TO SAY,

DRAW A DISTRICT WHICH IS MAJORITY BLACK IN POPULATION.

AND INDEED, IN DRAWING A DISTRICT WHICH IS MA.JORITY

BLACK IN POPULATION, THERE STILL REMAIN ADDITIONAL

CONCENTRATIONS OF BLACK VOTING STRENGTH.

THE ILLUSTRATIVE DISTRIGT WHICH IS SHOWN ON

THAT MAP IS A DISTRICT WHICH HAS A 70.9 BLACK POPULATION

FIGURE. THE BLACK PROPORTION OF THE TOTAT. POPULATION OF

HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER 23, THE DURHAM COUNTY MULTI-MEMBER

DISTP.ICT, IS 36.3 PERCENT. SO ONCE AGAIN, THE TWO

CONDITIONS OF SUBMERGENCE.-THE POT=NTIAL OF DRAWING A

MAJORITY BLACK DISTRICT AND THE EXISTENCE OF A MULTI.

MEMBER DISTRICT IN WHICH BLACKS COMPRISE A MINORITY OF

THE VOTERS--ARE SATISFIED. -

a us ING PLAINTIFFS ' EXHI B.IT 7 (A), CAN YOU

INDICATE HOW THE FIRST TWO CRITERIA OF SUBMERGENCE ARE

PRESENT IN WAKE COUNTY, IF THEY ARE?

(PURTNTIFFS EXHIBIT NO. 7(A)

WAS MARKED FOR IDENTIFICATION

A IN WAKE COUNTY, THE LEGEND IS SLIGHTTY

DIFFERENT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFRCE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

PRECINCTS AND CENSUS TRACTS. THE DARK BLUE AREAS

REPRESENT BI-ACK POPULATION 65 PERCENT AND OVER. THE

LIGHT BLUE AREAS REPRESENT BLACK POPULATION 5O TO 65

PERCENT.

AS IS APPARENTLY VISUALLY, THERE EXISTS A

SUBSTANTIAL 65 PERCENT AND OVER BLACK VOTER CONCENTRATI

IN ROUGHLY THE MIDDLE OF WAKE COUNTY. AND AS WE LOOK AT

THE OVERLAY, WE SEE THAT IT IS READILY POSSIBLE--INDEED,

IT IS QUITE OBVIOUS THIS IS ONLY ONE OF MANY HUNDREDS

OF I^,AYS IN WHICH SUCH A DISTRICT MIGHT BE DRAWN--TO

CREATE A SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT WHICH, EN.COMPASSES

SUBSTANTIALLY THE BLACK POPULATION CONCENTRATION,IN WAKE

COUNTYTS PRESENT MULTI-MEMBER DISTP'ICT.

THAT DISTRICT HAS BEEN DRAWN SO AS TO HAVE A

67. PERCENT BLACK POPULATION. THE POPULATION IN WAKE

HOUSE:DISTRICT NUMBER 2L PERCENT BLACK IS 21.8 PERCENT.

oNcE AGAIN, THE Th,o coNDITIot.lS--SUBSTANTIAL BLAcK

POPULATIONS CONCENTRATED EUFFICIENT TO FORM A SINGLE-

MEMBER DISTRICT AND BLACKS CONSTITUTING A MINORITY OF

THE POPULATION IN THE TOTAL MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT-'ARE

SATISFIED IN WAKE COUNTY

aUSINGPLAINTIFFS'ExHIBITNUMBERS(A),CoULD

YOU EXPLAIN WHETHER OR NOT THE CRITERIA FOR SUBMERGENCE

ARE SATISFIED IN THE WILSON-EDGECOMBE'NASH HOUSE DIS-

TRICT NUMBER B?

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PFIoEN|X, ARTZONA

(PLAINTIFFS ExHIBIT NUMBER B(

WAS MARKED FOR IDENTIFICATION.

A AS IS APPARENT VISUALLY FROM INSPECTION OF

EXHI BI T NUMBER .8, HOUSE DI STRICT NUMBER 8 IN THE WI LSON-

EDGECOMBE.NASH FOUR-MEMBER, MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT, THERE

ARE SUBSTANTIAL BLACK POPULATION CONCENTRATION AREAS,

THE DARK BLUE REPRESENTING 65 PERCENT AND OVER IN BLACK

POPULATION, THE LIGHT BLUE REPRESENTING 5O TO 65 PERCENT

IN BLACK POPULATION.

IF WE LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF MINORITY CONCEN.

TRATION IN EDGECOMBE, WILSON AND NASH{, 
!,,E. ,SEE THAT THERE

ARE TWO COMMUNITIES, WILSON AND ROCKY MOUNT, EACH.OF

WHICH HAVE SUBSTANT,IAI-.'BLACK-:POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS,

oNE OF WHICH--ROCKy MOUNT--IS, IN FACT, pRESENTLy

DIVIDED BETWEEN--THAT IS, THE CITY OF ROCKY MOUNT IS,

IN FACT, PRESENTLY DIVIDED BETWEEN TWO COUNTIES, EDGE-

COMBE AND NASH

I F WE CAN TURN NOW TO THE OVERLAY-.THE OVER-

LAY, WHICH AGAIN IS INTENDED'PURELY TO BE ILLUSTRATIVE

OF POTENTIAL SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS, HAS A BLACK POPULA

TION OF 62.7 PER,CENT AND HAS THE FEATURE OF RECOGNIZING

BLACK CONCENTRATIONS IN THE BLACK COMMUNITIES OF-BOTH

. 
WI LSON AND ROCKY MOUNT

THE PERCENT BLACK POPULATION IN THE MULTI-

MEMBER HOUSE DISTRICT ENCOMPASSING WILSON, EDGECOMBE AND

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PRECISION BEPORTING
AND'TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876_1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

NASH IS 39.5 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN, THE TWO CONDITIONS

FOR SUBMERGENCE OF THE THREE THAT I MENTIONED ARE

SATISFIED FOR THIS SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT IN WILSON,

EDGECOMBE AND NASH.

AND USING PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT NUMBER 9(A),

COULD YOU DESCRIBE THOSE TWO FEATURES OF SUBI4ERGENCE IN

THE MECKLENBURG+CABARRUS SENATE DISTRICT NUMBER 22?

(pIeINTIFFS EXHIBIT No. 9(A)

WAS MARKED FOR IDENTIFICATION

AGAIN, SINCE WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT THE COM-

BINED MECKLENBURG AND CABARRUS MAP, WE SEE A PATTERN

PREVIOUSLY FAMILIAR TO US--A CONCENTRO"O* O' BLACK

VOTING STRENGTH, PARTICULARLY IN MECKLENBURG COUNTY.

FURTHERMORE, AS WE NOTE, WE HAVE VOTER

REGISTRATION SHOWN BY PRECINCT SOI,THAT THE DARK BLUE

I

AREAS REPRESENT BLACK VOTER REGISTRATION 65 PERCENT AND

OVER. AND THE LIGHT U'.UU AREAS REPRESENT BLACK VOTER

REGTSTRATION 5O TO 65 PERCETW.

WE ALSO NOTE VISUALLY THAT THE BLACK POPULA-

TION CONCENTRATIONS WITH ONE RELATIVELY MTNOR EXCEPTION

OCCUR WITHIN MECKLENBURG COUNTY. THUS, IT WOULD APPEAR

DESIRABLE TO RECOGNIZE THAT BY CREATING A SINGLE-MEMBER

DISTRICT WITHIN MECKLENBURG IF BLACK POPULATION CONCEN-

TRATION PERMITS.

AS WE SEE WHEN WE PUT THE OVERLAY ON, IT IS

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBINO, !NC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
Pt{o€Nlx, ARtzol.lA

IN FACT POSSIBLE TO CREATE A SENATE DISTRICT SINGLE-

MEMBER WITH SUFFICIENT POPULATION, ROUGHLY LL7,OOO, TO

FORM A BLACK MA.JORITY POPULATION DISTRICT. THAT SENATE

DISTRICT--SINGLE-MEMBER SENATE DISTRICT--WOULD HAVE A

7O PERCENT BLACK POPULATION.

IF WE LOOK AT THE PERCENT BLACK POPULATION

WITHIN THE EXISTING MULTI-MEMBER SENATE DISTRICT NUMBER

22, THAT pERCENT BLACK POPULATION IS 24.3 PERCENT. AGAIN,

BOTH CONDITIONS ONE AND TWO OF THE SUBMERGENCE TEST ARE

MET.

WOULD YOU COMPARE THESE ILLUSTRATIVE SINGLE-

MEMBER DISTRICTS WITH THE SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS WHICH

THE STATE HAS ENACTED IN THE SECTION S COVCNEO COUNTIES?

A IN SHAPE AND IN NATURE, THESE DISTRICTS ARE

COMPARABLE TO THE DISTRICT WHICH WERE CREATED IN THE

COVERED COUNTIES OF THE STATE. I MIGHT NOTE, HOWEVER,

THAT THE PROPOSED SINOLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS IN MECKLENBURG

REPLACING THE MECKLENBURG.CABARRUS COMBINED DISTRTICT;

IN DURHAM, IN FORSYTH, IN WAKE AND IN MECKLENBURG FOR

THE HOUSE SEATS--ALL HAVE THE PROPERTY THAT THEY DO NOT

REQUIRE THE CROSSING OF COUNTY LINES. EACH SINGLE.MEMBE

DISTRICT CAN BE COMPOSED SOLELY WITHIN A GIVEN COUNTY.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT WOULD BE THE SINGL

MEMBER DISTRICT WHICH IS CREATED IN THE EDGECOMBE.WILSON

NASH AREA. AND THERE, OF COURSE, THOSE ALL THREE ARE

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PRECISION REPORTING
ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. ,riArN oFFtcE, IALE|GH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

COVERED COUNTIES. AND THE \,USTICE DEPARTMENT HAS

INDEED INDICATED THAT THE PROHIBITION AGAINST DIVISION

OF COUNTY LINES IN THE COVERED COUNTIES HAS LED TO THE

USE OF MMDI S--MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS-.I,.JHICH SUBMERGE

COGNIZABLE MINORITY POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS INTO

LARGER ELECTORATES. AND SO THEREFORE, THERE IS NO

REASON TO SEE THE STATEIS PROHIBITION AGAINST DILUTION--

I AM SORRY--AGAINST DIVISION OF COUNTY BOUNDARIES AS IN
ANY WAY A PROBLEM WITH RESPECT TO THE CREATION OF THAT

SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT IN EDGECOMBE, WILSON AND NASH.

MR. LEONARD: YOUR HONoR, WITH RESPECT

,O THAT ANSWER, IF THE COURT PLEASE, MAY I JUST V,OIR

DIRE THE.WITNESS FOR A MOMENT?

JUDGE PHILLIPS: WELL, MR. LEONARD, I AM

HAVING A LITTLE. DIFFICULTY DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN YOUR

IDEA OF A VOIR DIRE TO SUPPORT AN OBJECTION AND CROSS.

EXAMINATION. SO TAN IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WHAT YOU HAVE

BEEN DOING IS CONDUCTING A.PERFECTLY PROPER CROSS-

EXAMINATIONI IF YOU HAVE AN OBJECTION TO MAKE TO THE

TESTIMONY AND YOU WANT TO VOIR DIRE AND SUPPORT IT---
MR. LEONARD: (INTERPoSING) wELL, My

PROBLEM, I F THE COURT PLEASES, RELATES TO THE DOCUMENTS

AND WHAT I THINK IS AN INCONSISTENCY IN THE WITNESSI

TESTIMONY ABOUT THEM. WELL, WE CAN HOLD THAT UNTIL SHE

OFFERS IT.

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PRECISION REPOBTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.a571
PIIOENIX, ARIZONA

JUDGE PHTLLIPS: WELL, I THINK IT WOULD

BE MUCH MORE APPROPRIATE TO DO IT ON CROSS-EXAMINATION.

BY MS. WINNER:

A DR. GROFMAN, DID YOU EXAMINE THESE SAME DIS-

TRICTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE THIRD CONDITION

OF SUBMERGENCE--THAT IS, RACIALLY POLARIZED VOTING-.

EXISTS IN THESE DISTRICTS?

A YES. I HAVE EXAMINED ALL OF THESE EXISTING

DISTRICTS AND THE COUNTIES WHICH COMPRISE THEM TO

DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THERE EXISTS RACIALLY POLARIZED

VOTING IN THESE COUNTIES AND IN THESE,PI.STRICTS

a wguLD you DEF,IiNE FOR THE COURT WHAT RMIALLY

POLARIZED VOTING IS?

A QUITE SIMPLY, RACIAL POLARIZATION OCCURS WHEN

WHITE VOTERS AND BLACK VOTERS VOTE DIFFERENTLY FROM ONE

ANOTHER

A IS THAT IN ANY WAY DIFFERENT FROM RACIAL

BLOC VOTI NG?

A No; IT IS NoT. RACIAL POLARIZATION AND RACIA

BLOC VOTING ARE USED IN THE LITERATURE AND IN THE COURT

CASES.-AT LEAST THE COURT CASES WITH WHICH I AM FAMILIAR

SYNONYMOUS LY.

a WHAT ELECTIONS DID yOU ANALYZE TO MAKE A

DETERMINATION OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE WAS RACIAL BLOC'

VOTING IN THESE AREAS?o
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PRECISION REPORTTNG
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE. RATEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A THE ELEC'TIONS I'IHICH I ANALYZED WERE ALL OF

THE ELECTIONS IN THE PERIOD 1978 TO 1982 IN THESE

COUNTIES INVOLVING RACES IN WHICH AT LEAST ONE BLACK 1^'AS

A CANDIDATE FOR EITHER THE HOUSE OR THE SENATE. AND

THOSE INCLUDED BOTH PRIMARY AND GENERAL RACES.

IN ADDITION, I ANALYZED COUNTY BOARD PRIMARIE

IN EDGECOMBE, WILSON AND NASH AND A COUNTY BOARD GENERAL

ELECTION IN EDGECOMBE. AND I ANALYZED THE PATTERNS OF

VOTING IN EDGECOMBE, WILSON AND NASH FOR THE MICHAUX-

VALENTINE FIRST AND SECOND CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY AS IT

APPLIED TO THOSE THREE COUNTIES.

WHAT WERE THE CRITERIA--.

(TNrrRpoSING) r am SoRRY. THAT WAS A 1982A

ELECTION.

A WHAT WERE THE CRITERIA WHICH YOU USED TO PICK

THE, ELECTIONS I,'HICH YOU ANALYZED?

A THERE WERE."' FACTORS WHICH I TOOK INTO

ACCOUNT BEFORE DECIDING WH{T ELECTIONS TO ANALYZE AND

BEFORE CONDUCTING ANY ANALYSIS. FIRST, SINCE WE ARE

CONCERNED WITH POLARIZATION IN HOUSE AND SENATE ELECTI

IT MADE MOST SENSE TO ME TO EXAMINE TO THE EXTENT

POSSIBLE RACES IN THE HOUSE AND IN THE SENATE.

SECONDLY, SINCE WE ARE CONCERNED WITH RACIAL

POLARIZATION IT I.JAS EASIEST AND MOST APPROPRIATE TO LOOK

AT THAT IN THE CONTEXT OF BLACK.WHITE CONTESTS, ALTHOUGH25

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. l AlN oFFtcE, RATE|GH, 832.9085

779-3619 e76.4571

PrloENlx, ARtZOr.lA

RACIAL POLARIZATION CAN OCCUR EVEN IN ELECTIONS IN

WHICH THERE ARE NO BLACK CANDIDATES.

THIRD, IT SEEMED ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL TO HAVE

A COMPLETE SET OF ELECTIONS SO AS NOT TO BE MISLED BY

IDIOSYNCRATIC FEATURES OF A PARTICULAR, PERHAPS UNREPRE-

SENTATIVE, ELECTION SAMPLE. FOURTH, I FELT IT IMPORTANT

TO HAVE AN ADEQUATE REPRESENTATION IN TERMS OF THE TOTAL

NUMBER OF ELECTIONS PER EACH COUNTY SO THAT WE AGAIN

WOULD NOT BE MISLED BY FEATURES OF A PARTICULAR ELECTION

AND I DETERMINED THAT AT LEAST THREE ELECTIONS IN EACH

COUNTY WOULD BE SUFFICIENT AND INDEED NECESSARY.

FIFTH, I DETERMINED IT IMPORTANT THAT THERE

BE AN ADEQUATE REPRESENTATION OF DIFFERENT ELECTION

YEARS, SINCE NO SINGLE ELECTION YEAR CAN BE REPRESENTA-

T IVE, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WILL BE II',IPORTANT DI FFER; .

ENCES BETWEEN--IN GENERAL, THERE WILL BE IMPORTANT DIF-

FERENCES--BETWEEN ELECTIONS IN WHICH THERE IS A PRESI-

DENTIAL CONTEST OR ELECTION YEARS IN WHICH THERE IS A

PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST AND ELECTION YEARS IN WHICH THERE

IS NOT A PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST, OR PERHAPS BET TEEN YEARS

IN WHICH THERE IS A REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT RUNNING FOR A

STATEWIDE OR NATIONAL OFFICE AND YEARS IN WHICH THERE

IS NOT A REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT RUNNING FOR STATET.TIDE OR

NATIONAL OFFICE.

SIXTH, HOWEVER, IT WAS IMPORTANT NOT TO GO

n t o'Lrlllat
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PBECISION REPOBTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. AAAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876-4571

PTOENIX, ARIZONA

BACK TOO FAR IN TIME LEST WE OBTAIN ELECTIONS WHICH

DID NOT REFLECT CURRENT PATTERNS OF POLARIZATION. IN

BALANCING THE NEED FOR AN ADEQUATE SAMPLE OF ELECTION

YEARS AND THE NEED FOR A REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF ELEC-

TION yEARS, I CONCLUDED THAT THREE ELECTION YEARS--1978,

1980 AND 1982, TOTALING FIVE CALENDAR YEARS--CAME CLOS-

EST TO THE IDEAL.

FINALLY, IF IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET ENOUGH

ELECTIONS OF THE TYPE WE WANT WITHIN A GIVEN COUNTY OR

WITHIN A GIVEN SPECIFIED RANGE OF YEARS, THEN WE SHOULD

LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL ELECTIONS INVOLVI.NG BLACK CANDIDATES

WHI CH ARE AS S IMI LAR AS POSS I BLE TO LEGI SLATI.VE RACES=-

FOR EXAMPLE, ONES LIKE COUNTY BOARD ELECTIONS, WHICH

ALSO INVOLVE A COUNTYWIDE RACE. AND THAT WAS THE

SELECTION CRITERIA I USED IN THE CASE OF EDGECOMBE,

WI,LSON AND NASH, WHERE THERE WAS NOT AN ADEQUATE SAMPLE

OF THREE ELECTIONS O; THREE CONTESTS INVOLVING BLACK-

WHITE CONTESTS FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA HOUSE OR THE

NORTH CAROLINA SENATE IN THE PERIOD 1978 TO 1982.-OR

INDEED, FROM ANY PERIOD IN RECENT NORTH CAROLINA ELEC-

TORAL HISTORY.

AND IN THOSE COUNTIES, IN ADDITION TO LOOKING

AT THE ONE PRIMARY WHICH DID INVOLVE--HOUSE PRIMARY IN

THE COUNTIES-.WHICH DID INVOLVE A BLACK CANDIDATE, I

ALSO LOOKED AT COUNTY BOARD ELECTTONS IN EACH AND AT A

- 
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876..571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

CONGRESSIONAL RACE INVOLVING A BLACK-WHITE CONTEST

WHICH RESULTED IN TWO PRIMARIES AND IN A CONGRESSIONAL

DISTRICT WHICH ENCOMPASSED ALL THREE OF THESE COUNTIES--

THAT IS TO SAY, WHICH INCLUDED AS PART OF THE CONGRES-

SIONAL DISTRICT EDGECOMBE, WILSON AND NASH.

WHAT METHODS HAVE YOU USED TO ANALYZE THE

DATA?

A THERE ARE T'uo BA'IC METH.DS WHI.H I MADE USE

OF,WHICH ARE METHODS STANDARD IN THE LITERATURE FOR THE

ANALYSIS OF RACIAL POLARIZATION. THE FIRST OF THESE IS

A,METHOD CALLED ECOLOGICAL REGRESSION. AND THE SECOND

IS A METHOD CALLED EXTREME CASE ANALYSIS.

I,'HAT IS AN EXTREME CASE ANALYSTS?

EXTREME CASE ANALYSIS IS WHEN IN ORDER TO

UNDERSTAND THE VOTING BEHAVIOR OF WHITE VOTERS AND

BLACK VOTERS, ONE LOOKS AT PRECINCTS WHrCH ARE OVER_

WHELMINGLY COMPOSED O' 
'UMB'*' 

OF ONE RACE. THUS, IF

ONE WERE INTERESTED IN THE VOTING BEHAVIOR OF WHITE

voTERS, ONE WOULD LOoK AT VOTING PRECINCTS WHICH HAD AT

LEAST 95 PERCENT WHITE POPULATION. TO UNDERSTAND THE

voTING BEHAVIOR OF BLACK VOTERS, ONE WOULD LOOK AT pRE-

CINCTS WHICH HAD AT LEAST, SAY, 95 PERCENT BLACK POPULA-

TION. THAT IS CALLED IN THE LITERATURE EXTREME CASE

ANALYS I S .

WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF AN ECOLOGICAL

r-t L O. aa lgttt
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AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. r AlN oFFtcE, RAtEtcH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
P}{oENIX, ARIZONA

REGRESSION ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE RACIALLY POLARIZED

VOTING?

A THE PURPOSE OF AN ECOLOGICAL REGRESSION

AI.IALYSIS IS TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS RACIAL POLARIZATION

THAT IS TO SAY, TO DETERMINE WHETI.IER OR NOT WHITE VOTERS

AND BLACK VOTERS VOTE DIFFERENTLY FROM ONE ANOTHER.

A }'FI.AIT COMPAR I SONS ARE"'PERFORMED .I N' AN' 'ECOLOG I -
CAL REGRESSION ANALYSIS?

A THE BASIC COMPARISON IS A COMPARISON OF THE

PROPORTION OF VOTE RECEIVED BY BLACK OR WHITE CANDIDATES

IN EACH PRECINCT WITH THE PROPORTION OF BLACK/WHITE

VOTERS IN EACH PRECINCT. THAT IS To SAY, wE LooK AT-iF

A GIVEN BLACK OR A GIVEN WHITE CANDIDATE, WE LOOK AT THE

VOTE RECEIVED BY THAT CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATES. AND WE

COMPARE THAT VOTE IN THE PRECINCT WITH THE RACIAL PROPOR

TION IN THAT PRECINCT.

A IS THERE nTI nooITIoNAL coMPARISoN THAT YoU

MAKE ?

A THERE ARE TWO RELATED C'OMPARISONS. WE MAY

EITHER LOOK AT CANDIDATES INDIVIDUALLY AND ASK FOR THE

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE PROPORTION OF THE VOTE FOR A

GIVEN CANDIDATE AND THE PROPORTION OF THE DISTRICT WHICH

. IS OF A GIVEN RACE; OR WE MAY COMBINE-.AND THIS IS,

AGAIN, A STANDARD TECHNIQUE IN LTTERATURE. WE MAY COM.

BINE ALL CANDIDATES OF A GIVEN RACE AND EXAMINE THE

Fr tOlqltrG
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCR|B|NG, !NC. AAAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZON,A

VOTES--THE COMBINED VOTES--FOR CANDIDATES OF A GIVEN

RACE WITHIN EACH PRECINCT, LOOKING AT THE COMPARISON OF

THE VOTES FOR CANDIDATES OF A GIVEN RACE VERSUS THE
,

RACIAL COMPOSITION OF EACH OF THE PRECINCTS.

MS. WINNER: MAY I APPROACH THE

WITNESS.TO GIVE HIM SOME WATER?

LJUDGE PHILLIPS: WHY DoNIT WE SToP RIGHT

HERE, SINCE YOU FIND IT NECESSARY TO REFRESH YOUR

WITNESS, AND TAKE ABOUT A 15-MINUTE RECESS FOR EVERYONE?

(Tne PRocEEDING WAS RECESSED AT 11:,0 A.M.,

. TO RECOI.IVENE AT t1:45 A.M., THIS SAME DAy.)

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lJ Raaieh. taq'l crc.rrr r?.tt

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PRECISION REPORTING
,ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

P}OENIX, ARIZONA

THE

THE

FURTHER PROCEEDINGS 1L:45

(wneReu eon,

BERNARD N. GROFMAN

W'tTNESS ON THE STAND AT THE TIME OF RECESS, RESUMED

STAND AND TESTIFIED FURTHER AS NOUTOWS:)

JUDGE PHILLIPS: PROCEED, MS. WINNER.

D I R E C T E X A M I N A T I O N 11:45 A.M

BY MS. WINNER:

, A DR. GROFMAN, I F YOU MADE A GRAPH OF THE

coMpARISON THAT YOU pERFORMED IN THE ECOLOGICAL REGRES-

SION ANALYSIS AND IF RACE WAS NOT A FACTOR IN THE--IF

THE RACE OF THE VOTER WERE NOT A FACTOR IN WHO HE OR

SHE VOTED FOR, WHAT WOULD THAT GRAPH LOOK LIKE?

A IF WE LOOKED AT A GRAPH WHICH COMPARED VOTE

PROPORTIONS RECEIVED BY PARTICULAR CANDIDATES WITH THE

RACIAL COMPOSITION OF EACH.OF THE PRECINCTS AND RACE

WASNTT A FACTOR RELATED TO HOW VoTERS VOTED, WHAT YOU

WOULD EXPECT TO FIND IS THAT THE POINTS ON THIS GRAPH

BASICALLY WOULD BE RANDOMLY SCATTERED ALL OVER THE

PLACE; OR POSSIBLY THEY MIGHT FALL ON A FLAT LINE INDI.

CATING ESSENTIALLY THAT ALL VOTERS VOTED ALIKE REGARD-

LESS OF RACE. BUT MOST OFTEN, YoU WOULD EXPECT THAT

THEY WOULD BE RANDOMLY SCATTERED.

F L O. lo l3ltc
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AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. It ArN OFF|CE, RAtEtcH, 832.9085

779.3619 976.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

a AND IF yOU GRAPH THE''CoMPARISON AND THE

RACE OF THE VOTER IS A FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHO THEY

VOTE FOR, THEN WHAT DOES THE GRAPH LOOK LIKE?

A WELL, IF VOTING WERE RACIALLY POLARIZED AND

YOU LOOKED AT SUCH A GRAPH, WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT TO

FIND IS THAT IN COMPARING THE PROPORTION OF VOTES FOR A

GIVEN CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATES WITH, SAY, THE PROPORTION

wHITE VOTERS IN EACH PRECINCT, yOU WOULD EXPECT TO SEE

THESE POINTS THAT SHOW THESE PROPORTIONS FALL ON SOME.

THTNG VERY MUCH LIKE A STRAIGHT LINE WHICH WILL SLOPE

E.ITHER UP OR DOWN

A AND WHAT WOULD IT MEAN. IF THE LINE .SLOPED UP?

A IF THE LINE SLOPED UP, THAT WOULD MEAN THAT

AS THE PROPORTION OF WHITES INCREASED--THAT IS, AS THE

PROPORTION OF WHITE VOTERS IN EACH PRECINCT INCREASED--

THE PROPORTION OF VOTES RECEIVED BY THAT CANDIDATE ALSO

I NCREAS ED .

A WHAT DOES IT MEAN IF THE LINE SLOPES DOWN?

A IF THE LINE SLOPES DOWN, THAT WOULD MEAN THAT

AS THE PROPORTION OF I'IHITES IN THE PRECINCT INCREASED

THE CANDIDATE WOULD GET FEWER VOTES.

a WHAT DO YOU DO IF THE POINTS DONTT FALL

EXACTLY ON THE STRAIGHT LINE?

A WELL, POINTS NEVER FALL-..JUST IN MY EXPERI.

ENCE--NEVER FALL EXACTLY ON A STRAIGHT LINE, EVEN WHEN

r e O. ld ttai
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCBIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571
PFOENIX, ARIZONA

VOTING WAS RACIALLY POLARIZED. SO WHEN THE POINTS

LOOK LIKE THEY MIGHT BE A STRAIGHT LINE, YOU WOULD TRY

TO DETERMINE WHETHER IN FACT THE POINTS WERE CLOSE ENO

TO FORMING A STRAIGHT LINE TO ACT AS IF THEY ACTUALLY

WERE A STRAIGHT LINE.

a Hol^, Do you DECIDE IF THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO

A STRAIGHT LINE FOR'THEM TO BE CONSIDERED A STRAIGHT

LINE?

A WELL, THERE ARE TWO TESTS THAT SOCIAL

SCIENTISTS AND STATISTICIANS APPLY. ONE IS THE INTER-

ocuLAR TEST. yOU LOOK AT THE GRAPH AND yOU SAy, 'rIS
THIS A STRAIGHT LINE?'' AND IF IT SORT OF \'UMPS UP AND

HITS YOU BETWEEN THE EYES, THEN YOU DECIDE, ''YES. THAT

IS REALLY A STRAIGHT LINE.'' AND THEN IF YOU REALLY

WANT TO---

. JUDGE BRITT:

CALL THAT EYEBALLINE TTE

(TNTERpoSING) oo YoU

STATE YOU ARE IN. SOCIAL SCIENTISTS MANAGE TO HAVE

FANCY TERMS FOR SOME UNFANCY THINGS. AND IN SOCIAL

SCIENCE, PARTLY TONGUE IN CHEEK, IT IS CALLED THE INTER.

OCULAR TEST--I.N-T-E-R.O.C-U-L.A-R.

HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A STANDARD STATISTIC

TO LOOK AT. AND THAT IS THE STATISTIC WHICH I5 CALLED

coRP.ETATION OR THE CORRELATI0N CO:FFICIENT, 0R ALS0'o

F ,, O. la raiat
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PRECISION REPORTING
ANq TRANSCR|B|NG, tNC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

CALLED 'IRIT OR ''PEARSON'S R'' AFTER A GENTLEMAN NAMED

PEARSON, wHo wAS THE FIRST TO pROposE IT.

BY MS. WINNER:

A WHAT IS THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE CORRELATION

COEFFICIENTS?

THE RANGE OF POSS I BLE

I S FROM :1' TO +li '+11 TNDICATI.NG

INDIOATING LINES WHICH SLOPE UP,

CATING LINES WHICH SLOPE DOWN.

COP.RELATION COEFF IC I ENT

[.INES.OR POSITIVE NUMBER

NEGATIVE NUMBERS INDI.

USUALLY POLITICAL SCIENTISTS I^'ILL -TALK 
ABOUT

THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT. THAT

IS, THEY WILL PAY No ATTENTION To THE SIGN. so If'SOME-

THING HAS, SAY, AN ABSOLUTE VALUE ABOVE 
..5, 

THAT WOULD

MEAN THAT EITHER IT WAS GREATER THAN .5 OR IT WAS LESS

THAN -.5.

, IN POLITICAL SCIENCE I THINK IT WOULD BE FAIR

TO SAY THAT VALUES OF CORRELATIONS--AT LEAST IN THE

KINDS OF REGRESSIONS WE ARE. DEALING WITH HERE, ONE

VARIABLE VERSUS ANOTHER VARIABLE-.VALUES OF CORRELATIONS

ABOVE .5 ARE RELATIVELY RARE. AND CERTAINLY MOST

POLTTICAL SCIENTISTS WOULD TREAT ANY VALUE OF A CORRELA-

TION ABOVE .5 AS A SITUATION IN wHIcH THEY woULD AcT, IN

EFFECT, AS IF 
": 

POINTS FELL ON A STRAIGHT LINE.

a HAVE you DONE OTHER ECOLOGTCAL REGRESSTON

ANALYS E S ?

Fl .t O.arl'rOl-a i.fagn 
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GR0 FMAN -l+ 2



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PBECISION REPORTING
aNo TRANSCR|BING, tNC.

. "e o, r- tti!
Haarr, Xoil C..ottr. t?ail

MAIN OFFIG. RAIEIGH, 832.9085
779-3619 976.1571
PI.loENIX, ARIZONA

A I HAVE DONE SOME OTHER ECOLOGICAL REGRES-

S IONS AND OF COURSE,MANY, MANIY OTHSR KINDS OF REGRESSIO

ANALYSES-.THOUSANDS OF REGRESSION ANALYSES OVER THE LAST

DECADE.

a WHAT IS THE NORMAL RANGE OF CORRELATION COEF_

FICIENTS THAT YOU HAVE FOUND IN THOSE PAST ANALYSES?

A IN MOST OF THE ANALYSES I HAVE DONE, ONE FIND

CORRELATION.-ONE IS HAPPY WHEN ONE FINDS CORRELATION

COEFFICIENTS ABOVE .'. THE ONLY TIME--THE HIGHEST

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT.THAT I CAN REMEMBER OCCURRED WHE

,9' LOOK AT HOW A PERSoN SArD HE WAS GOrNG TO VOTE rN AN

ELECTION THAT WAS GOING TO TAKE PLACE TOMORROW.AND. YOU

COMPARED THAT WITH HOW THE PERSON ACTUALLY VOTED TOMORR

ItN THAT CASE;' yOU GOT',:A CORRE.I-ATION, OF AROUND:".91.

a How Do you DETERMINE WHETHER 0R NOT---

.' A (TUTERPOSING) THERE I^'ERE SOME PEOPLE WHO

.JUST DIDNTT KNOW THEIR OWN MINDS.

a How Do you DETERTSTNE WHETHER THE CORRELATION

COEFFICIENT IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT?

A AGAIN, THERE IS A STANDARD STATTSTICAL TEST

FOR THE STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE VATUE OF THE

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT. AND IN THE COMPUTER PROGRAMS

. THAT I USED, THAT STANDARD MEASURE OF STATISTICAL SIGNI-

FICANCE IS REPORTED.

USUALLY IN SOCIAL SCIENCE, THE RULE IS THAT

GROFMAN-43



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AND TRANSCRIBING, INC.

,. O. !c ttao
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MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

P}OENIX, ARIZONA

IS THE STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE IS LESS THAN .01, THEN

CERTAINLY WE WOULD REGARD SOMETHING AS STATISTICALLY

SIGNIFICANCE. .01 WOULD MEAN THAT THERE IS LESS THAN A

1 IN lOO CHANCE THAT THIS OBSERVED PATTERN OF LINE LIKE-

NESS COULD HAVE, IN FACT, OCCURRED .JUST BY CHANCE.

ONCE YOU DETERMINE THE STATISTICAL SIGNIFI-

CANCE OF THE INFORMATION, WHAT OTHER FACTORS DO you

DETERMINE IN AN ECOLOGICAL REGRESSION ANALYSIS?

WELL, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF THINGS THAT CAN

BE DONE WITH THE INFORMATION FROM AN ECOLOGICAL REGRES-

sI9N ANALYSIS AND ALSO FROM EXTREI"IE CASE ANALYSIS, 'yOU
.t

CAN, FOR EXAMPLE, DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT VOTING IS

RACIALLY POLARIZED. YOU CAN DETERMINE THE PROPORTION OF

THE WHITE OR THE BLACK VOTE WHICH GOES TO WHITE OR BLACK

CANDTDATES. YOU CAN DETERMINE THE PROPORTION OF WHITE

OR BLACK VOTERS WHO VOTE FOR PARTICULAR WHITE OR BLACK

CAND I DATES.

YOU CAN DETERMINE THE RANKING OF BLACK OR

WHITE CANDIDATES AMONG WHITE OR BLACK VOTERS. AND YOU

CAN ALSO DETERMINE TURNOUT FIGURES IN THE ELECTION,

INCLUDING THE TURNOUT OF THE WHITE VOTERS AND THE TURN-

OUT OF THE BLACK VOTERS ESTIMATED FROM THE REGRESSION.

AND YOU CAN ALSO DETERMINE THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF BALLOTS

CAST IN THE ELECTION BY WHITE VOTERS AND BY BLACK VOTERS

IN NORTH CAROLINA IN A MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT ELECTION,

GROFMAN.4I+



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AND TRANSCRIBING, INC.

- 
L O. lor al{lll

Ll hldcr. xodrt c{o{o. ?,crt

MAIN OFFIG, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 976.1571

PIloENIX, ARIZONA

VOTERS MAY HAVE UP TO EIGHT BALLOTS OR UP TO EIGHT

VOTES THAT THEY COULD CAST. VOTERS, HOWEVER, MAY NOT

CHOOSE TO MAKE USE OF THE FULL ELECTORAL OPTION. AND

THEY MAY CAST LESS THAN EIGHT VOTES.

I,{E CAN CALCULATE HOW MANY BALLOTS ON AVERAGE

EACH VOTER CASTS. AND WE CAN DETERMINE THAT ALSO

SEPARATELY BY THE RACE OF THE VOTER.

A DO YOU HAVE BEFORE YOU PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT

NUMBER 12?

(pLRTNTIFFS ExHIBIT NO. L2 wAS

MARKED FOR 
.I.DENTIFICATION. 

)

A YES; I DOT-PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT NUMBER L2.

LET ME MAKE SURE THAT I HAVE THE CORRECT..I HAVE L'

THROUGH 18. SO LET ME FIND THAT I, IN FACT, HAVE A COPY

0F 12.

A LET ME JUS], HAND YOU A COPY OF WHAT HAS BEEN

MARKED AS PLAINTIFFST EX].II'BIT NUMBER L2 AND ASK YOU IF

THAT I5 A MORE COMPLE'TE DESCRIPTION OF THE METHOD WHICH

YOU JUST DESCRIBED?

A YES. ''AN OUTLINE FOR RACIAL BLOCK VOTING

ANALYSIS," WHICH IS A RESEARCH REPORT I PREPARED AS THE

SENIOR AUTHOR JOINTLY WITH A GRADUATE STUDENT TN THE

. 
DEPARTMENT OF PSYCHOLOGY, IS A FULL AND COMPLETE DESCRIP-

TION OF THE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY THAT I USED FOR MY

DETERMINATION OF RACIAL POLARIZATION AND OTHER ELEMENTS

GROFMAN.'+5



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PRECISION REPORTING
aND TR NSCR|BTNO, rNC. MAIN OfFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PI-|oENtX, ARtZOf.lA

OF ECOLOGICAL AND EXTREME CASE ANALYSIS.

IT ALSO REVIEWS APPROPRIATE METHODOLOGY FOR

SINGLE.MEMBER DISTRICT, MULTI.MEMBER DISTRICT ELECTIONS

IN TERMS OF RACIAL POLARIZATION MEASURES.

q DOES THAT EXHIBIT CONTAIN ANY OF THE PARTICU-

LAR RESULTS ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA?

A NO; IT DOES NOT. IT WAS INTENDED AS AND

WRITTEN IN ADVANCE OF MY ACTUAL ANALYSES. BUT FOR THE

MOST PART, IT IS INTENDED AS AN OUTLINE OF THE APPRO-

PRIATE METHODOLOGY TO FOLLOW IN CONDUCTING RACIAL BLOCK

,?,ING ANALYSES.

A DRAWING YOUR ATTENTION TO PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT

NUMBER 11, APPENDAGE 4, WHICH THE COURT WILL FIND IN THE

WORK FOLDER. IT IS THE WORK FOLDER THAT HAS THE COMPUTE

PRINTOUT IN IT.

(pIATNTIFFS ExHIBIT No. I1 wAS

MARKED FOR IDENTIFICATION. )

THE WITNESS: IF IT PLEASE THE COURT.,''.

IT WILL LOOK LIKE THIS, IF THAT HELPS ANY.

MS. WINNER: IT SHOULD BE A PAPER

CLIPPED TOGETHER STACK OF GRAPHS.

BY MS. WINNER:

q IS THAT AN EXAMPLE OF ONE OF THE GRAPHS

WHICH YOU WERE DESCRIBING PREVIOUSLY?

A YES; IT IS.

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GROFMAN-46



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

COULD YOU EXPLAIN FOR THE COURT HOW TO READ

THE GRAPH--THE TOP PAGE OF APPENDIX NUMBER 4?

A UI{-HUH. AT THE UPPER LEFT-HAND CORNER, IT

SAYS IIDU- 478 HOUSE PRIMARY. 'I THAT WOULD BE DURHAM 1978

IIOUSE PRIMARY. THE II4II MAY BE SOMEWHAT CONFUSING. THE

II4II INDICATES THE DATE AT WHICH WE HAD REGISTRATION

DATA FOR. THE PRIMARY ACTUALLY TOOK PLACE IN MAY. THE

REGISTRATION DATA WE HAD WAS APRIL REGISTRATION DATA.

THE NEXT LINE DOWN SIMPLY SAYS IISCATTERGRAMS.

AND THAT IS THE NAME THAT SOCIAL SCIENTISTS GIVE TO THIS

KIND OF GRAPH. THE NEXT TWO LINES DONTT REALLY MEAN

ANYTHING. AND THE FIFTH LINE DOWN FROM THE TOP T.ELLS Y

WHAT THIS IS. IT IS A SCATTERGRAM OF DOWN--THAT IS,

GOING ON THE VERTICAL AXIS--A VARIABLE WHICH FOR NUMONIC

PURPOSES IS CALLED PV PRIME, WHICH VARIABLE TELLS YOU TH

VOTE PROPORTION THAT':BLACK."'CANDI'DATES' TN.TOTO GET OF THE

TOTAL VOTES CAST IN A GIVEN PRECINCT.

THAT I S TO SAY I F WE LOOK AT THE VOTES CAST

FOR ALL BLACK CANDIDATES IN A PRECINCT AND WE LOOK.AT

THE VOTES CAST FOR ALL WHITE CANDIDATES IN A PRECINCT,

THAT GIVES THE PROPORTION OF BLACK VOTES TO TOTAL VOTES,

BLACK AND WHITE VOTES--TO TOTAL VOTES, VOTES FOR BLACK

CANDIDATES AND VOTES FOR WHITE CANDIDATES IN THE

PRECINCT. SO IT IS THE PROPORTION OF THE VOTES IN THAT

PRECINCT WHICH THE VOTERS IN THAT PRECINCT GIVE TO BLACK

F ,. O. !d llia3
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.457l,

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

CAND I DATES.

THAT i^IOULD BE THE VERTICAL AXIS. AND THE

BOTTOM LEFT ZERO MEANS THAT VOTERS WOULD GIVE ZERO

PERCENTAGE OF THEIR VOTES IN THE PRECINCT TO BLACK

CANDIDATES. AND THE ONE AT THE TOP WOULD INDICATE THAT

VOTERS IN THAT PRECINCT WOULD GIVE 1OO PERCENT OF THEIR

VOTES TO THE BLACK CANDIDATES--1OO PERCENT OF THEIR TOTA

VOTES CAST, THAT IS TO SAY. AGAIN, LET ME REPEAT: THIS

IS VOTES FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATES DIVIDED BY THE VOTES

FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATES PLUS THE VOTES FOR THE WHITE

CANDIDATES. SO IT IS BLACK CANDIDATESI SHARE OF TOTAL

VOTES CAST IN THE PRECINCT

THAT WOULD BE THE VERTICAL NXT.S. AND ACROSS,

WE SIMPLY SHOW THE PROPORTION WHITE REGISTRATION IN A

PRECINCT. AGAIN, THE BOTTOM LEFT WOULD INDICATE A PRE-

cINCT WHICH WAS ZERO PERCENT WHITE, WHICH WE WILL TAKE

TO BE IOO PERCENT BLACK. AND THE BOTTOM RIGHT-HAND

CORNER WOULD BE A PRECINCT WHICH WAS lOO PERCENT WHITE .

IN VOTER REGISTRATION.

WHEN WE ARE DEALING WITH PRIMARIES, WE ARE

DEALING WITH DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES. AND SO THEREFORE,

THE VOTERS WE ARE DEALING WITH ARE ONLY DEMOCRATIC

VOTERS. SO WHENEVER YOU ARE SEEING THESE PERCENTAGES

FOR A PRIMARY, WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT DEMOCRATIC

VOTERS.

F t O. Bq ttao
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. ,YtAlN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.157t
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A THIS

POLARIZATION.

EXHIBITS CLEAR RACIAL

WHAT ABOUT IT LEADS YOU TO THAT CONCLUSION?

FIRST, ONE MAY APPLY THE INTEROCULAR TEST.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE POINTS IN THE UPPER LEFT.HAND SIDE

AND THEN LOOK AT THE POINTS IN THE BOTTOM RIGHT-HAND

SIDE AND THEN SORT OF VISUALLY--I WILL DO THIS IN SUCH

A WAY THAT PERHAPS THE COURT CAN SEE--VI SUALLY JUST

TRACE WITH YOUR HAND A LINE, IT SEEMS REALLY QUITE CLEAR

THAT II'HERE IS INDEED A LINE.

A WHAT

CONCLUDE LOOKING

MORE PRECI

STATISTICS

PREC I SELY

OR FALL ON

WOULD YOU CONCLUDE

AT THIS PARTICULAR

PARTICULAP. EXAMPLE

OR WHAT DO YOU

E XAMPLE ?

HOWEVER, SINCE SOCIAL SCIENTISTS LIKE TO BE

SE THAN MERELY EYEBALLING, WE CAN LOOK AT THE

WHICH ARE PROVIDED WHICH INDICATE QUITE

THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE POINTS DO APPROXIMAT

A STRAIGHT LINE

THE TWO MOST I}4PORTANT STATISTICS THERE ARE

THE FIRST STATISTIC. AND THE STATISTICS ARE TO BE FOUND

FOR EACH OF THE 53 SUCH GRAPHS THAT I HAVE PREPARED,

ONE FOR EACH OF THE ELECTIONS Wt1[CH I HAVE ANALYZED.

THE FIRST MOST IMPORTANT STATISTIC IS THE

CORRELATION OR I'RII STATISTIC.., AND IT IS SHOWN AS THE

FIRST LINE UNDERNEATH STATISTICS IN THE BOTTOM LEFT-HAND

CORNER OF THE GRAPH. THAT CORRELATION FOR THIS ELECTION

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PBECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBINO, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI-EIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

rs -.98.

THE NEXT RELEVANT PIECE OF INFORI4ATION

SHOWN IS THE STATISTICA.L SIGNIFICANCE, HERE ABBREVIATED

IISIGNIFICANCE.II AND THAT IS THE THIRD LINE UNDERNEATH

STATISTICS ON THE BOTTOM LEFT-HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE.

AND THE STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE FOR THIS CORRELATION

COEFFICIENT IS .OOOO1. THAT CORRESPONDS TO A SITUATION

WHICH COULD OCCUR BY CHANCE LESS THAN 1 IN 100,000 TIMES

AND IN FACT, THIS PARTICULAR COMPUTER PRINTOUT WONTT

PRINT OUT ANY SIGNIFICANCES LOWER THAN THAT NUMBER

. 
q IS THE REST OF APPENDIX 4 TO PLAINTIFFST

EXHIBIT 11 A SIMILAR SCATTERGRAM FOR THE OTHER ELECTIONS

WHICH YOU ANALYZED?

A YES; IT IS. EACH COUNTY IS STAPLED SO THAT

VIE HAVE IN THE STACK THAT YOU HAVE ON TOP THE DURHAM

ELECTIONS BEGINNING WITH 1978 AND GOING THROUGH 1982

BEGINNING WITH PRIMARIES AND THEN MOVING TO GENERALS AND

SO ON FOR EACH OF THE OTHER COUNTIES.

A NOW, YOU PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THAT ONE OF THE

MEASURES THAT YOU MAKE IS THE PROPORTION OF WHITE AND

BLACK VOTES CAST WHICH WENT TO WHITE AND BLACK CANDIDAT

WHERE WOULD THE COURT FIND THE RESULTS OF THAT ANALYSIS?

A THE RESULTS OF MY ANALYSIS OF THE PROPORTION

OF WHITE--I AM SORRY. REPEAT THE QUESTION. I AM NOT

SURE WHICH TABLE YOU ARE ASKING ABOUT.

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PI{OENIX, ARIZONA

a THE PROPORTION OF WHrTE AND BLACK VoTES CAS

WHICH WENT TO WHITE AND BLACK CANDIDATES?

A WHICH WENT TO I^IHITE AND BLACK CANDIDATES IN

TOTO.

THE PROPORTION OF WHITE AND 3149K VOTES CAST

WHICH WENT TO BLACK CANDIDATES?

A THAT CAN BE FOUND IN CONDENSED--IN A TABLE

WHICH IS AN APPENDIX, APPENDIX ] TO EXHIBIT 11. AND IT

IS TABLE NUMBER 3, WHICH IS A THREE-PAGE TABLE FOUND ON

THE LAST THREE PAGES OF APPENDIX 
' 

TO EXHIBIT 11.

A FIRST OF ALL, THERE ARE SOME NUMBERS IN

PARENTHESES IN THE LEFT-HAND COLUMN OF THAT CHART. WHAT

DO THOSE NUMBERS MEAN?

A THE FIRST NUMBER IN PARENTHESES ON ANY GIVEN

ROW IN ONE OF THE CLOSED PARENTHESES SITUATIONS--VECTORS

WHICFI HAS FOUR NUMBERS IN IT--THE FIRST NUMBER IS THE

NUMBER OF BLACK CANDrOnieS. IF WE LOOK, FOR EXAMPLE, AT

THE FIRST PAGE OF. THAT TABLE WHERE THE RACES IN MECKLEN-

BURG AND CABARRUS ARE THE FIRST RACES LOOKED AT, THERE I

A IIlII THERE INDICATING THAT IN THAT RACE--THE GENERAL

RACE, WHICH IS T0 THE LEFT-HAND SIDE--THERE WAS ONE BLAC

CAND I DATE.

THE SECOND NUMBER INDICATES THE TOTAL NUMBER

OF CANDIDATES IN THE RACE, INCLUDING THE BLACK CANDIDATE

SO IN THAT RACE, THERE WERE SIX CANDIDATES. THE THIRD

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. ,rAAlN OFFICE, RAI-E|GH, 832.9085

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PHOENIX, ARIZONA

NUMBER INDICATES THE NUMBER OF SEATS TO BE FILLED IN

THAT RACE. THIS BEING THE MECKLENBURG CABARRUS SENATE

SEAT, THERE ARE FOUR SEATS IN THAT MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT

AND FINALLY, THE FOURTH AND LAST NUMBER

REPRESENTS THE NUMBER OF BLACK CANDIDATES WHO ARE

SUCCESSFUL--THE NUMBER OF BLACK CANDIDATES WHO WON_-IN

THIS CASE, ONE.

NOW, IF YOU WANTED TO---

A (INTTRpoSING) I MIGHT NoTE FoR THE coURTIS

INFORMATION THAT A KEY TO READING THIS IS TO BE FOUND

IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER OF THE FIRST PAGE OF

APPENDIX 3, WHICH IS THE FIRST PAGE OF TABLE 1.

a IF you wANTED To FIND our rnE NUMBER oR THE

PROPORTION OF THE WHITE VOTES WHICH WENT TO THAT BLACK

CANDIDATE, WHERE WOULD YOU FIND THAT? WHERE DO YOU FIND

THAT ?

A THAT WOULD BE FOUND IN THE FIRST LABELED

coLUMN, THE COLUMN THAT IS- LABELED ITPROPORTION 0F THE

VOTES CAST BY WHITE VOTERS WHICH GO TO THE BLACK CANDI-

DATE OR CAND I DATES. II AND ONE WOULD READ ACROSS THE ROW-

FOR EXAMPLE, FOR THE 1978 SENATE RACE IN MECKLENBURG AND

CABARRUS--TO DISCOVER THAT 16 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL VOTES

CAST BY WHITE VOTERS WENT TO THE BLACK CANDIDATE.

AND WHERE DO YOU FIND THE PROPORTION OF THE

VOTES CAST BY BLACK VOTERS WHICH WENT TO THE BLACK

F ?. O.8q tlts
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PT{OENIX, ARIZONA

CANDIDATE?

A THAT WOULD BE THE NEXT COLUMI.{, THE SECOND

COLUMN--THE COLUMN LABELED ''PROPORTION OF THE VOTES CAST

BY BLACK VOTERS WHICH GO TO THE BLACK CANDIDATES.'I AND

IN MECKLENBURG AND CABARRUS 1978 SENATE RACE, ]8 PERCENT

OF THE VOTE OF THE BLACK VOTERS WENT TO THE BLACK

CAND I DATES--CAND I DATE.

JUDGE BRITT:

GETTING THOSE FIGURES? .

NOW, WHERE ARE YOU

THE WITNESS: THoSE FIGURES ARE cALcU-

LATED FROM REGRESSIONS LIKE THESE OR FROM EXTREME CASE

ANALYSIS. THESE PARTICULAR NUMBERS COME FROM REGRESSION

IT MIGHT---

(TrureRpoSING) T *JUSTJUDGE BRITT:

WANTED TO CLARIFY IT. IT DOESNTT APPEAR ON THIS CHART.

., THE WITNESS: THAT IS CORRECT. THERE

ARE OTHER EXHIBITS WHICH DO, IN FACT, SHOW THESE NUMBERS

THOSE NUMBERS WERE CALCULATED OR WHERE TO FIND THE

NUMBERS ?

JUDGE BRITT: I AM TRYING SIMPLY TO

KEEP UP WITH THE WITNESS, COUNSEL. YOU ASKED HIM ABOUT

. THESE COLUMNS. AND THEN HE IS GIVING US SOME FIGURES

THAT DONIT APPEAR IN THESE COLUMNS. AND I JUST WANTED

TO KNOW WHERE THEY ARE COMING FROM.25

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PRECISION BEFORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 976.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

MS. WINNER: IF YOU LOOK AT PAGE 7

OF THE CONDENSED SUMMARY, TABLE 3--THAT IS THE THIRD FRO

THE LAST PAGE. THAT IS CONDENSED SUMMARY, TABLE 3, PAGE

7.

LEFT COLUMN, yOU WILL FIND WRITTEN IN THE NUMBER .16.

i.JUDGE BR ITT:

MS. WINNER:

JUDGE BRITT:

MS. WINNER:

ALL RIGHT. I AM WITH

I F 'YOU' LOOK AT THE FAR

I SEE THAT.

THAT MEANS THAT 16

PERCENT OF THE VOTES CAST BY WHTTE VOTERS WENT TO BLACK

CANDIDATES. IF yOU GO TO THE NEXT COLUMN, yOU SEE

WRITTEN I'N .'8. THAT MEANS THAT 
'8 

PERCENT OF THE VOTES

CAST BY BLACK VOTERS WENT TO THE BLACK dNT.TOIDATE IN THAT

ELECTION.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE

OF.THE FIGURE ON THE FIRST PAGE, :41, IN RELATION TO THE

FIGURE .16 ON PAGE 7? I AM NOT TRYING TO UNDERSTAND TI.IE

ULT IMATE MATHEMATICS.'

MS. WINNER: I WILL GET TO THAT RIGHT

NOW.

.JUDGE PHILLIPS: ALL RIGHT.

MS. .wrNNERl ' MY NEXT QUESTToN wAS

GOrNc TO BE" I{HERE''DO .YOU'FrNO"oUr'.;rFrd',pdopbHrrON: Cir

THE WHITE VOTERS WHO VOTED';FOR THE BUACK CANDIDATE. IF

1' MIGHTT' 'TltE 'DIST.I.NCTION, BEINGiMADE ISr;- ' ':-"','

Fr t OrtoELtat
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AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 976.4571
PI{OENIX, ARIZONA

JUDGE PHILLIPS: (TNTenPoSING) wELL,

WE DONIT HAVE TO BE HYPER-TECHNICAL. BUT LETTS HAVE THE

WITNESS TESTIFY.

MS. WINNER:

BY MS. WINNER:

A CAN YOU DISTINGUISH

ON PAGE 7 OF THAT TABLE AND THE

THAT TABLE?

FINE.

BETWEEN THE INFORMATION

INFORMATION ON PAGE 1 OF

IN A MULTI.MEMBER DISTRICT, VOTERS HAVE MORE

THAN ONE VOTE TO CAST. SO VOTERS MAY VOTE FOR ONE BLACK

CANDIDATE AND FIVE WHITE CANDIDATES. IF THEY VOTE FOR

ONE BLACK CANDIDATES AND FIVE WHITE CANDIDATES, THIS

WOULD INDICATE THAT OF THE TOTAL VOTES THAT THAT VOTER

CAST, ONE-SIXTH OF THE VOTE WENT TO THE BLACK CANDIDATE.

THAT ONE.SIXTH AVERAGED OVER ALL VOTERS WOULD BE THE

EQUIVALENT OF WHAT IS FOUND IN TABLE NUMBER 
', 

IT IS

THE PROPORTION OF OLL.'NU VOTES CAST BY VOTERS WHICH GO

TO BLACK CANDIDATE OR CANDLDATES

HOW DOES THAT'COMPARE TO WHAT IS IN CONDENSED

SUMMARY TABLE NUMBER 1?

CONDENSED SUMMARY TABLE NUMBER I, WHICH IS

THE FIRST THREE PAGES OF APPENDIX 3, SHOWS THE PROPORTI

OF I',HITE VOTERS WHO VOTE FOR INDIVIDUAL BLACK CANDIDATE

SO, FOR EXAMPLE, THE .41 THERE IN THE MECKLENBURG AND

CABARRUS 1978 SENATE GENERAL ELECTION COLUMN FOR . "

F P. O. !d rtlal
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AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. ,YlAlN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PI.IOENIX, ARIZONA

PROPORT ION OF WH I TE VOTERS FOR BLACK CAI{D I DATES MEANS

THAT OF THE WHITE VOTERS, 41 PERCENT VOTED FOR THE BLACK

CANDIDATE. AND COMPLEMENTARILY, 59 PERCENT DID NOT.

A AND WHAT DOES THE NEXT COLUMN TO THE RIGHT

MEAN ?

THE NEXT COLUMN TO THE RIGHT SHOWS THE PROPOR

TION OF BLACK VOTERS WHO VOTED FOR EACH GIVEN BLACK

CANDIDATE--ANY GIVEN BLACK CANDIDATE. IN '78 THERE WAS

ONLY ONE BLACK CANDIDATE. AND SO THE .94 FIGURE IN THAT

COLUMN SHOWS THAT 94 PERCENT OF THE BLACK VOTERS VOTED

FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: CAN T ASK SOMETHING FOR

CLARIFICATION: IF THE WITNESS WOULD DESCRIBE TO ME THE

BASE DATA USING A SMALL HYPOTHETICAL SAMPLE--SAY, OF

1OO VOTES IN ONE OF THESE DISTRTCTS--FROM WHICH YOU

FINALLY CONCLUDE WITH THESE PROPORTIONS AS IN THE FIRST

LINE, THAT 4I PERCENT OF WHITES VOTED FOR BLACK CANDI.

DATES. WHAT IS THE BASE DATA FROM }^IH[CH YOU WORKED TO

GET THAT?

THE BASE DATA IS THETHE WITNESS:

DATA IN EACH PRECINCT ON HOW MANY VOTES EACH OF THE

CANDIDATES GOT AND THE DATA IN EACH PRECINCT ON THE

RACIAL COMPOSITION OF THE PRECINCT. IT IS EASIEST, I

THINK--IF I MAY, YOUR HONOR--TO INDICATE HOW THIS WOULD

WORK FOR AN EXTREME CASE PRECINCT. LETIS TAKE A

E ,. O. lor nla!
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ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

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PHOENIX, ARIZONA

PRECINCT WHICH IS 1OO PERCENT WHITE.

WE LOOK AND WE FIND IN THAT PRECINCT HOW MANY

VOTES BLACK CANDIDATE, CANDIDATE NUMBER I, GOT. WE FIND

OUT HOW MANY VOTES WHITE CANDIDATE, CANDIDATE I{UMBER 2,

GOT. WE FIND OUT HOI^, MANY VOTES WHITE CANDIDATE, CANDI-

DATE 3, CANDIDATE 4, CANDIDATE 5, CANDIDATE 6 cOT.

NOW, THE PROPORTION OF VOTES GIVEN BY WHITE

VOTERS TO THE BLACK CANDIDATE IS SIMPLY THE NUMBER OF

VOTES THAT THEY GAVE TO CANDTDATE 1 DIVIDED BY THE TOTAL

NUMBER OF VOTES THEY GAVE TO ANY OF THE CANDIDATES.

THAT IS, YOU SUM UP THE TOTAL VOTES THEY CAST. THEY

voTED FOR OR GAVE SOME VOTES TO C-1, SOME VOTES TO C-2,

soME TO C-3, SOME TO C-4, SOME TO C-5 AND C-6. THOSE

ARE ALL THE VOTES THEY CAST.

oF THOSE VOTES, SOME WENT TO CANDIDATE C-1,

THE BLACK CANDIDATE. TAKE THE VOTES THAT THE BLACK

CANDIDATE GOT, DIVIDE ;; THE TOTAL NUMBER OF VOTES THAT

WHITE VOTERS CAST FOR ALL CANDIDATES. AND THAT IS THE

PROPORTION OF VOTES RECEIVED BY THE BLACK CANDIDATE IN

THAT DISTRICT.

NOW, THAT IS THE

TO OBTAIN THE DATA--IS THAT

JUDGE PHILLIPS:

THE SCATTERGRAM.

THE WITNESS:

DATA PRESENTED IN TABLE 3.

C LEAR ?

. TRANSLATE THAT BACK ON

YES. LETIS TAKE THE

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AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX. ARIZONA

FIRST SCATTERGRAM. I THINK THAT WOULD BE VERY GOOD

SUGGESTION, YOUR HONOR. LETIS TAKE THE FIRST SCATTER-

GRAM, THAT OF THE DURHAM 1978 HOUSE PRIMARY. ROUGHLY

SPEAKING, WE CAN GO UP THE EXTREME LEFT-HAND EDGE OF

THIS GRAPH. THOSE WOULD BE DISTRICTS--I AM SORRY. THOS

WOULD BE PRECINCTS WHICH ARE ZERO PERCENT WHITE. THAT

IS TO SAY, THEY ARE PRECINCTS WHICH ARE lOO PERCENT

B LACK .

WE CAN LOOK AND WE CAN SEE WHAT PROPORTION

OF THE VOTE IdAS RECE I VED BY BLACK CAND I DATES I N SUCH

DISTRICTS. READING UP, WE SEE THAT ROUGHLY 92 PERCENT

OR THEREABOUTS OF THE VOTES WERE GIVEN TO BLACK CANDI-

DATES IN DISTRICTS WHICH ARE ALL BLACK.

SIMILARLY, ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT-HAND SIDE WE

SEE THAT ROUGHLY 10-12 PERCENT OF THE VOTES-.THAT 10 OR

L2 PERCENT PROPORTION OF THE VOTES WERE GIVEN TO BLACK

CANDIDATES IN DISTRICT; WHICH ARE ALL WHITE. IS THAT

C LEAR ?

dUDGE PHI LLIPS:

THE WITNESS:

IT IS CLEAR ENOUGH.

TURNING TO TABLE 1 AND

USING THE SAME EXAMPLE TO ILLUSTRATE HOW THE NUMBERS IN

TABLE 1 ARE ARRIVED AT, AGAIN CONSIDER OUR HYPOTHETICAL

ALL-WHITE PRECINCT VOTING FOR SIX CANDIDATES, ONE OF

WHOM, SAY, MIGHT BE BLACK.

WE CAN ASK IN THAT PRECINCT, WHICH IS ALL

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wHITE, WHAT PROPORTION OF THE VOTERS IN THAT PRECINCT

VOTED FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE. THE PROPORTION OF VOTERS

WHO VOTED FOR THAT CANDIDATE IS THE EQUIVALENT OF THE

DATA THAT IS PRESENTED IN TABLE 1.

IF WE LOOK AT WHITE VOTERS, WE ARE ACTUALLY

LOOKING AT REGISTERED--WE COULD EITHER BE LOOKING AT

REGISTERED VOTERS; OR WE WOULD HAVE TO BE LOOKING AT

TOTAL NUMBER OF VOTERS.

THE NUMBER OF VOTES FOR BLACK CANDIDATES

DIVIDED BY THE NUMBER OF REGISTERED WHITE VOTERS IN AN

ALL.WHITE PRECINCT IS ESSENTIALLY THE..PROPORTION OF

WHITE VOTES WHICH WENT TO THE BLACK CANDIDATE. AM I

BEING CLEAR?

UUDGE PHILLIPS: YOU ARE BEING CLEAR. I

WONDER IF IT MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE TO ASK MR. LEONARD IF

THERE IS ANY SUBSTANTIAL QUESTION ABOUT THE ACCURACY

OF THESE PARTICULAR EXHIBITS AS THEY REFLECT OR IF THEY

REFLECT THE SHEER MATHEMATICS OF THE SITUATION? WE SEEM

TO BE SPENDING AN AWFUL LOT OF TIME TO DEVELOP A POINT

THAT, WHILE NOT WITHIN THE RANGE, I SUPPOSE, OF \,UDICIAL

NOTICE, IS ALMOST THERE.

MR. LEONARD: I F THE COURT PLEASE, WE

DONTT DISAGREE WITt'l DR. GROFMANTS ARITHMETIC, .JUST HIS

CONCLUSIONS. THE METHODOLOGY THAT HE HAS USED IS A

METHODOLOGY THAT DR. HOFLER WILL, IN FACT, RELY ON AND

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ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. A ArN OFF|CE, RATETGH, 832.9085

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WILL BE USING SOME OF DR. GROFMANIS EXHIBITS TO REBUT

THE CONCLUSIOTIS THAT HE COMES TO.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: WELL, IS THERE ANY WAY

MIGHT SHORTEN UP THIS PRESENTATION BY GETTING A STIPULA-

TION AS TO THE MATHEMATICAL ACCURACY OF THESE CHARTS?

I WOULD WANT TO DO IT VERY CAREFULLY AND SPECIFICALLY--

THE SCATTER CHARTS AND THESE APPENDICES TO---

MR. LEONARD: (tNreBposING) voun

HONOR, IF THE COURT PLEASE, WE HAVE STIPULATED TO THE

ACCURACY OF DATA. WE HAVE NOT STIPULATED TO THE ACCURA

OF THESE EXHIBITS BECAUSE I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT

DR. HOFLER--I THINK WE RECEIVED THESE .JUST A FEW DAYS A

WE WOULD HAPPY TO HAVE HIM TRY TO GO THROUGH

THOSE DURING THE LUNCH HOUR AND SEE IF WE CANIT ELIMINAT

ANY QUESTION ABOUT WHAT THESE EXHIBITS PURPORT TO SHOW,

WHICH MIGHT EXPEDITE.THE WITNESSI TESTIMONY.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: WELL, SO FAR IT SEEMS TO

ME,--I F I GET THE DRIFT OF J^THERE WE ARE GOING, IT IS SO

FAR SIMPLY TO ESTABLISH THE MATHEMATICAL ACCURACY OF

THESE SCATTER CHARTS AND THE APPENDI:CES WITH THEM.

MR. WINNER: TO ESTABLISH THE ACCUR

AND TO MAKE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND I''HAT DR. GROFMAN

HAS DONE THAT WILL LEAD HIM'TO THE CONCLUSIONS THAT HE

REACHED.

.JUDGE PHI LLI PS : WHY DONI T ] WE' NOW PROCEED

- 
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. AAAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PIioENIX, ARIZONA

IN THIS WAY: SUB.JECT To THE POSSIBILITY oF A F0RMAL

STIPULATION AS TO ACCURACY, COULD YOU OVERLEAP ANY

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF A METHODOLOGY OF WHAT THE FIGURES

SHOW AND GET INTO THE CONCLUSIONS?

MS. WINNER: I I/''ILL BE HAPPY TO DO

THAT.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: IF THE DoCTOR woULD LIKE

TO BROADEN THEM OR IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE

MATHEMATICAL ACCURACY, WE CAN RECEIVE, THE CONCLUSIONS

TEMPERED BY THOSE OBJECTIONS.

Y MS. WINNER:

A DR. GROFMAN, FROI.4 THE RESULTS OF YOUR ANALYSE

OF THESE 55-.-

A ( T NTTRPOS ING) 53.

a 55--EXCUSE ME--ELECTIONS, DID you REACH ANy

GENERAL CONCLUSIONE?

A YES. I REACHED A NUMBER OF GENERAL

a WHAT ARE THOSE CONCLUSIONS?

A THE FIRST GENERAL CONCLUSION THAT I REACHED

ABOUT POLARIZATION IN ALL OF THE EIGHT COUNTIES IN

QUESTION IS THAT IN EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THE 5' ELEC-

TIONS WHICH I ANALYZED, THESE ELECTIONS VJERE RACIALLY

POLARIZED. INDEED, THERE WAS RACIAL POLARIZATION EVENI

IN ELECTIONS WITH BLACK INCUMBENTS AND EVEN IN ELECTIONS

F P.ohLl.S
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 A76-1571
PI{OENIX, ANIZONA

WITH BLACKS RUNNING IN WHICH THERE WAS NO CONTEST.

THE CORRELATIONS RANGED FROM .7 TO .98 WITH

MOST WELL ABOVE .9. AGAIN, I CAN GIVE AN ILLUSTRATION

FROM DURHAM. BUT I WONIT BOTHER. THE COURT CAN SEE

QUITE CLEARLY THAT IN DURHAM ALL BUT ONE OF THE CORRELA-

TIONS ARE QUITE HIGH. AND EVEN THAT ONE IS AT THE .7

LEVEL, WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE THE RANGE I^'HICH WOULD

BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT. AND MOREOVER, THE STATISTI

SIGNIFICANCE TEST OF ALL THE REGRESSION ANALYSES FOUND A

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL OF .OOOO1--THAT IS TO SAY

A, LIKELIHOOD THAT THE RESULTS COULD HAVE OCCURRED BY

CHANCE ALONE OF LESS THAN 1 IN 100,00O.

THE SECOND GENERAL CONCLUSION--ACTUALLY, I AM

GOING TO GIVE IT IN THREE PARTS. FIRST, IN NORTH

CAROLINA GENERAL ELECTIONS NO BLACK CANDIDATE EVER GOT A

MAJ.ORITY OF WHITES TO VOTE FOR HIM OR HER. AND THIS WAS

TRUE EVEN FOR BLACK INCUMBENTS AND EVEN FOR CANDIDATES

RUNNING IN RACES WHICH WERE UNCONTESTED. EVEN SUCH

INDIVIDUALS--SUCH BLACK CANDIDATES--DID NOT RECEIVE THE

VOTES OF A MA.JORITY OF WHITE VOTERS.

INDEED, ON AVERAGE OVER THESE ELECTIONS MORE

THAN 60 PERCENT OF THE WHITE VOTERS DID NOT VOTE FOR THE

BLACK CANDIDATE.

THE SECOND PART OF MY SECOND CONCLUSION DEALS

WITH PRIMARIES. ON AVERAGE IN THE EIGHT COUNTIES IN THE

F P. O, lor 2al6
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PRECISION REPOBTING
ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. l AtN oFFtCE, RArEtcH, 832-9085

779-3619 876-1571
PHOENIX, ARIZol.IA

PRIMARIES, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF WHITE VOTERS VOTED

FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE. EXCEPT IN UNUSUAL CASES--3 OUT

oF 25-'IN ALL THE PRIMARY ELECTIoNS, 60 PERCENT oR MORE

OF WHITES DID NOT VOTE FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE. I MIGHT

NOTE THE THREE EXCEPTIONS.

IN THE THREE EXCEPTIONS THE VOTES FOR THE

BLACK CANDIDATE GIVEN BY WHITE VOTERS RANGED BETWEEN

47 PERCENT AND 50 PERCENT IN THE PRTMARY. BUT THEN IN

THE GENERAL ELECTION THE CANDIDATE WENT OI.{ TO GET LESS

THAN A MAJORITY OF THE VOTES OF WHITE VOTERS IN ALL THRE

?r THESE CASES.

THE THIRD PART OF MY GENERAL CONCLUSION 2 IS

THAT IN GENERAL ELECTIONS BLACK CANDIDATES ALMOST

ALWAYS RANK LAST OR NEXT TO LAST AMONG WHITE VOTERS

EXCEPT IN GENERAL ELECTIONS IN HEAVILY DEMOCRATIC AREAS

WHERE BLACK CANDIDATES SOMETIMES RANK LAST OVERALL, BUT

ALMOST ALWAYS RANK LAST OR NEXT TO LAST AMONG DEMOCRATS.

AND SIMILARLY,.IN PRIMARIES..AGAIN, WITH A

HANDFUL OF EXCEPTIONS--WHITE VOTERS GIVE FEWEST VOTES

TO BLACK CANDIDATES OF ANY CANDIDATES IN THE RACE.

TURNING NOW TO MY THIRD CONCLUSION-.THIRD

GENERAL CONCLUSION--LOOKING AT PRIMARIES AND GENERAL

ELECTIONS AS A TWO-STAGE PROCESS WHICH CANDIDATES MUST

OVERCOME IF THEY ARE TO BE ELECTED, STNCE IT DOES NO

GOOD TO BE POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF WINNING A GENERAL

Fr P. O. !c 
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AND TRANSCRIBING, INC.

- 
P. O. lor rtlts

lJ n hach, Nord! c.rda. 2r.3tl

MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

ELECTION IF ONE HAS LOST THE PRIMARY OR TO BE POTEN-

TIALLY OF WINNING A PRIMARY IF ONE IS CERTAIN NOT TO

LOSE THE GENERAL ELECTION, I WOULD CONCLUDE THAT IN

NORTH CAROLINA IN THE EIGHT COUNTIES I HAVE STUDIED BLA

CANDIDATES CANNOT GET A MAJORITY OF WHITES TO VOTE FOR

THEI4, NO MATTER WHAT THESE BLACK CANDIDATES DO AND NO

MATTER WHO THESE BLACK CANDIDATES ARE. IN SHORT, RACIAL

POLARIZATION IS SEVERE AND PERSISTENT.

MY FOURTH GENERAL CONCLUSION IS THAT ALTHOUGH

BLACK INCUMBENCY-.THAT IS, THE PRESENCE OF A BLACK

INCUMBENT IN A RACE.-MODERATES THE AMOUNT OF RACIAL

POLARIZATION, IT DOES NOT ELIMINATE IT, SINCE AS I INDI;

CATED'EARLIER, ALL OF THE RACES I ANALYZED DID INVOLVE

RACIAL POLARIZATION INCLUDING THOSE WITH BLACK INCUM-

BENTS.

. MOREOVER, . I F WE LOOK NOT AT BLACK ELECTED

INCUMBENTS BUT AT BLACK APPOINTED INCUMBENTS, WE FIND

THAT BEING A BLACK APPOINTED INCUMBENT IS NO GREAT HELP

TO ELECTORAL SUCCESS. THERE WERE THREE BLACK APPOINTED

INCUMBENTS IN THESE RACES, 1978 TO 1982. ALL THREE LOST

EITHER IN THE PRIMARY OR THE GENERAL FLECTION.

ACTUALLY, JUST AS A FOOTNOTE, THERE WERE

POTENTIALLY--ONE MIGHT COUNT THERE BEING FOUR APPOINTED

INCUMBENTS. A BLACK CANDIDATE, MOTLEY, WAS APPOINTED TO

REPLACE ALEXANDER, WHO DIED. ALEXANDER HELD THE POSITI

GROFMAN-64



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PRECISION REPORTING
ANO TRANSCBIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI,EIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.157]|

PI|oENIX, ARIZONA

OF SENATOR FROM MECKLENBURG AND CABARRUS. HOWEVER,

THE ELECTION TOOK PLACE BEFORE MOTLEYIS NAME OR ANYONE

ELSEIS NAME COULD APPEAR ON THE BALLOT. AND IN THAT

RACE, ALEXANDER--l^,HO WAS NOT ALIVE--LOST. BUT NONETHE-

LESS, IN THAT RACE ALEXANDER RECEIVED THE CLEAR, OVER-

WHELMING SUPPORT OF THE BLACK COMMUNITY. AND ALEXANDER

RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE-THIRD OF THE VOTES OF THE WHITE

COMMUN I TY.

BLACK

VOTERS

I MIGHT NOTE IN GENERAL THAT THE APPOINTED

INCUMBENTS GOT LESS THAN ONE-THIRD OF THE WHITE

TO VOTE FOR THEM IN EACH OF THESE THREE CASES.

MY FIFTH GENERAL CONCLUSION IS AS FOLLOWS:

EVEN THOUGH A CONSTITUENCY HAS ELECTED A BLACK CANDIDATE

IIN THE PAST, THIS DOES NOT PROVIDE A GUARANTEE THAT IT

WILL DO SO IN THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THE BLACK INCUM-

BENT WHO IS THE PRESENT OCCUPANT OF THAT POSITION DOES

NOT RUN IN THE FUTURE IN SUBSEQUENT RACES.

MY SIXTH CONCLUSION: IN GENERAL ELECTIONS,

WHEREVER THERE IS A BLACK DEMOCRAT RUNNING AND WHEREVER

A DEMOCRAT LOSES, IT WILL BE THE BLACK DEMOCRAT WHO

LOSES. FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES, REPUBLICANS NEVER

VOTE FOR BLACK DEMOCRATS. BUT REPUBLICANS DO SOMETIMES

VOTE FOR WHITE DEMOCRATS.

.JUDGE DUPREE:

ANYBODY VOTES FOR?

HOW DO YOU FIND OUT WHO

o
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THE WITNESS: THE TECHNIQUES IN

QUESTION HERE ARE TO LOOK AT, AGAIN, ECOLOGICAL

REGRESSIONS, LOOKING AT NOW THE PROPORTION REPUBLICAN

IN EACH DISTRICT RATHER THAN THE PROPORTION BLACK IN A

DISTRICT AND COMPARING THE VOTE PATTERNS AS DiSTRICTS

CHANGE IN THEIR PROPORTION REPUBLICAN.

WHAT WE FIND WHEN WE DO THAT IS THAT AS THE

REPUBLICAN PROPORTION INCREASES, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A

VOTE FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE DECREASES; AND INDEED,

DECREASES SO DRAMATICALLY THAT ONE CAN HAVE CONFIDENCE

,) THE CONCLUSION THAT FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES,

REPUBLICANS SIMPLY DO NOT VOTE FOR BLACK DEMOCRATS.

BUT THEY DO VOTE FOR WHITE DEMOCRATS.

THERE IS ANOTHER FORM OF ANALYSIS I HAVE

PERFORMED IF yOU WISH ME TO GO INTO IT, WHICH ALSo

SUP.PORTS THAT CONCLUSION. THAT IS TO BE FOUND IN APPEN-

DIX 5 TO EXHIBIT 11.

BY MS. WINNER: .

A DR. GROFMAN, IN EXPLAINING THAT YOU 'USED THE

WORD !ID I STRI C TS . II

A I AM SORRY--PRECINCTS, I THINK. WHENEVER I

AM TALKING,. I WILL DISTINGUISH--PRECINCTS ARE THE AREAS

. IN VOTERS REGISTER. DISTRICTS ARE THE CONSTITUENCIES

FROM WHICH CANDIDATES RUN.

A DO YOU HAVE ANY FURTHER GENERAL CONCLUSIONS?o
F l. O. Bor 2'r{]!
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PRECISION BEPORTTNG
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. IvlAlN OFFICE, RA[EtcH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PI,{oENIX, ARIZONA

A YES. I HAVE TWO FURTHER GENERAL CONCLU-

SIONS. MY SEVENTH GENERAL CONCLUSION IS WITH RESPECT TO

SINGLE SHOT VOTING. FOR A NON-INCUMBENT BLACK TO WIN

AN ELECTION IN WHICH IT WAS REALISTICALLY POSSIBLE TO

ELECT AN ALL-WHITE SLATE-.THAT IS TO SAY, IT MIGHT NOT

BE REALISTICALLY POSSIBLE TO ELECT AN ALL-WHITE SLATE

IF, IN FACT, THERE ARE NO CANDIDATES RUNNING IN OPPOSI-

TION TO THE NOMINEES, AS IN DURHAM, FOR EXAMPLE, IN 198

IF YOU HAVE A NON-INCUMBENT BLACK TRYING TO

WIN AN ELECTION IN WHICH IT WAS REALISTICALLY POSSIBLE

TO ELECT AN ALL-WHITE SLATE, THE BLACK COMMUNITY HAS TO

VOTE ALMOST EXCLUSTVELY FOR THE BLACK'CANDIDATE IN ORDER

TO PROVIDE AI.IY REASONABLE CHANCE FOR TTIAT BLACK CANDI-

DATE TO BE ELECTED, GIVEN THE DEGREE OF RACIAL POLARIZA-

TION IN THESE COUNTIES.

. AND MY EIGHTH AND FINAL GENERAL CONCLUSION

ABOUT ALL OF THE COUNTTCS AS A WHOTE IS THAT EVEN THOUGH

BLACKS MUST OFTEN CONCENTRATE--BLACK VOTERS MUST OFTEN

CONCENTRATE THEIR VOTES ON BLACK CANDTbNTTS IN ORDER TO

GIVE THESE BLACK CANDIDATES A CHANCE AT WINNING, ON

BALANCE WHITES.-THAT IS TO SAY, WHITE VOTERS--ARE LESS

WILLING TO VOTE FOR BLACK CANDIDATES THAN BLACK VOTERS

ARE I.TILLING TO VOTE FOR WHITE CANDTDATES.

AND AGAIN, I CAN PROVIDE, IF THE COURT WISHE

EXACT CALCULATIONS TO SUPPORT THAT CONCLUSION.

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TMNSCRIBING. INC.

GRO FMAN- 6 8

MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085
779.36t9 876.4571
PIIoENIX, ARIZONA

A DO THESE GENERAL CONCLUSIONS ALSO APPLY TO

THE INDIVIDUAL COUNTIES?

A YES. THESE GENERAL CONCLUSIONS APPLY TO EACH

OF THE COUNTIES SINGLY AS WELL.

A HAVE YOU CONDUCTED YOUR ANALYSIS COUNTY BY

COUNTY ?

A YES; I HAVE

A DO YOU HAVE ANY GENERAL CONCLUSIONS ABOUT

FORSYTH COUNTY?

A YES. I HAVE SOME GENERAL CONCLUSIONS ABOUT

FORSYTH

a BEFoRE yOU GO INTO THOSE, WHERE WOULD THE

COURT FIND THE SUMMARY OF YOUR ANALYSIS OF FORSYTH

COUNTY ?

A THE SUMMARY OF MY ANALYSIS OF FORSYTH COUNTY

WOULD BE EXHIBIT 15. THE COUNTY-BY-COUNTY SUMMARIES OF

ANALYSES ARE IN GENERAL TO BE FOUND AS EXHIBITS T3

THROUGH 18.

(pI.RINTI FFS EXHI BIT NoS. 15

THROUGH 18 WERE MARKED FOR

IDENTIFICATION. )

a WHAT ARE YOUR CoNCLUSION ABOUT FORSYTH COUN

A IN FORSYTH, BLACKS WILL LOSE UNLESS REPUBLI-

CANS--BLACK CANDIDATES WILL LOSE IN THE GENERAL ELECTI

UNLESS REPUBLICANS DO POORLY, SINCE IF THERE IS A

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TMNSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.157.1

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

REPUBLICAN WINNER IN THE GENERAL ELECTION, THAT

REPUBLICAN WINNER WILL KNOCK OFF THE BLACK DEMOCRATS,

SINCE AS I PREVIOUSLY INDICATED, REPUBLICANS DO NOT

VOTE FOR BLACK DEMOCRATS ALTHOUGH THEY DO VOTE FOR SOME

WHITE DEMOCRATS.

MOREOVER, IN FORSYTH COUNTY EXAMINING THE

PATTERN OF RACIAL POLARIZATION OVER THE THREE ELECTION

YEARS, THERE IS NO CONSISTENT TREND TO SUGGEST THAT

RACIAL POLARIZATION IS DECLINING OVER TIME IN THIS

COUNTY.

, A HAVE YOU EXAMINED IN PARTICULAR"TFIE.,RESULTS

OF THE 1982 HOUSE ELECTION IN FORSYTH.COUNTY?

A YES; I HAVE.

E IN THAT ELECTION, HOW MANY BLACK CANDIDATES

WON ?

. A IN THAT ELECTION, TWO BLACK CANDIDATES WON.

a IN YOUR OettttOtt, WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF

THAT RESULT REPEATING ITSELF?

A I THINK THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT RESULT

REPEATING ITSELF IS VERY CLOSE TO ZERO.

A WHAT IS THE BAS:IS OF THAT OPINION?

A THE BASIS FOR.THAT OPINION IS SEVERALFOLD.

. FIRST OF ALL, THE RACIAL POLARIZATION IN FORSYTH IN 198

WAS EXACTLY IDENTICAL TO WHAT IT WAS IN 1980 IN THE

PRIMARY. WHAT WAS DIFFERENT BETWEEN 1980 AND 1982 WASo
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PRECISION REPOBTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. AAAIN OFFICE, R.ALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PIOENIX, ARIZONA

THAT IN 198O THERE WERE FIVE WHITE CANDIDATES RUNNING

FOR FIVE SEATS. IN tggz, THERE WERE NINE WHITE CANDI_

DATES RUNNING FOR FIVE SEATS IN THE PRIMARY.

IN BoTH CASES, 1gg0 ANE 1992, THERE I{ERE TWO

BLACK CANDIDATES RUNNING IN THE PRIMARY. IN 1982 THERE

WERE MORE WHITE CANDIDATES THAN WHITE VOTERS COULD VOTE

FOR. AND MOREOVER, THERE WERE NOT WHITE INCUMBENTS IN

THE RACE, BECAUSE FOUR OUT OF FIVE WHITE INCUMBENTS HAD

DECLINED TO RUN FOR RE-ELECTION.

SO THE WHITE VOTE WAS SPLIT NINE WAYS IN THE

PRIMARY, WHILE THE BLACK VOTE WAS CONCENTRATED AMONG

TWO BLACK CANDIDATES. ABSENT A'SITUATION IN WHICH WHITE

wILL oNcE AGArN so spLIT THEIR vorE, rnEne IS No REASoN

TO ANTICIPATE THAT TWO BLACK CANDIDATES WOULD EMERGE FR

A PRIMARY IN FORSYTH, EVEN THOUGH TWO OF THOSE BLACKS

ARE NOW INCUMBENTS.

THE REASON FOR THAT, AS

THE DEGREE OF RACIAL POLARIZATION

LY IN THE PRIMARY, DOES NOT LEAD

WHITE VOTERS WILL VOTE FOR BLACK

INDICATED, IS THAT

IN FORSYTH, PARTICULAR

ONE TO BELIEVE THAT

CANDIDATES.

.JUDGE PHI LLIPS:

ONE OF THE FACTORS THAT WILL

CONSTANCIES OF POLARIZATION

THAT WHITES PUT UP?

THE MTNESS:

DOES THIS SUGGEST THAT

REFLECT ITSELF IN THE

IS THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATES

IT DOES INDEED.

o
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GROFMAN- 7 O



I

JUDGE PHILLIPS: IS THAT A FAcToR THAT

THE LEGISLATURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IN TRYING

TO AVOID THE CONSEQUENCES THAT ARE SOUGHT TO BE PROVEN

HERE ?

THE I,II TNESS :

TIONAL WAY, THOUGH I AM NOT A

LEGISLATURE OR ANY OTHER BODY

FROM SEEKING OFFICE.

I CAN SEE NO CONSTITU-

LAWYER, IN WHICH THE

COULD PROHIBIT CANDIDATES

IT IS USEFUL TO NOTE IN THAT 1982 FORSYTH

ELECTION THAT IF WE LOOK AT THE PRIMARY IN FORSYTH,

WHILE ONE OF THE BLACK CANDIDATES DID RECEIVE SUFFICIENT

NUMBER OF VOTES WITHIN THE WHITE COMI4UNITY TO.HAVE MADE

IT INTo THE RUNoFF oR To HAVE MADE IT INTo THE GENERAL

ELECTION, THE OTHER DID NOT. AND I ATTRIBUTE THE

RELATIVELY HIGH I.IHITE VOTE FOR ONE OF THOSE CANDIDATES

AT .LEAST IN PART TO THE FACT THAT THE WHITE VOTE FOR

WHITE .ANDIDATES WAS i,.,T AM.NG NINE WHITE .ANDIDATES.

EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY, IF WE LOOK AT THE

GENERAL--NOW, HERE IS A GENERAL ELECTION IN WHICH TWO

BLACK CANDIDATES WON. I F WE LOOK AT HOW THOSE BLACK

CANDIDATES RANKED AMONG WHITE VOTERS, WE FIND THAT AMON

THE EiGHT CANDIDATES IN THE RACE--FIVE DEMOCRATS AND

THREE REPUBLICANS-.THESE TWO BLACK CANDIDATES RANKED

LAST AND NEXT TO LAST IN THE PREFERENCE ORDERINGS OF

WHITE VOTERS.

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ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. ,YlAlN OFF|CE, RAIE|GH, 932.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONAF l. O. Oo! 2alao

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ANO TRANSCRIBINO, INC.

GROFMAN- 7 2

MAIN OFFICE, RAI,EIGH, 832.9085

779.36t9 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

ANOTHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 1980 AND 1982

WHICH CANNOT BE EXPECTED TO REOCCUR IN 1984 IS THAT IN

FORSYTH FROM 1980 TO 1982 BLACK TURNOUT IN THE PRIMARY

STAYED CONSTANT. BUT WHITE TURNOUT IN THE PRIMARY

DECREASED. I NOTE, AS I HAVE PREVIOUSLY NOTED, THAT 198

WAS A GENERAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR. ONE MIGHT ALS

TAKE NOTE OF THE FACT THAT 1984 IS A GENERAL PRESIDENTIA

YEAR. IT ALSO IS A YEAR IN WHICH THERE IN THE STATE OF

NORTH CAROLINA IS AN INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN CAI.IDIDATE FOR

THE UNITED STATES SENATE WHO IS LIKELY TO BE RUNNTNG.

INSOFAR AS PORTIONS OF THIS DECLINE IN VOTER

TURNOUT CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DECLINE IN REPUBLICAN

VOTERS, CERTAINLY ONE WOULD EXPECT THOSE REPUBLICAN

VOTERS WHO ARE WHITE AND WHO DO NOT VOTE FOR BLACK

CANDIDATES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO TURN OUT IN 1984;

AND SECONDLY, THAT IN GENERAL THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN

,I.IHITE VOTER TURNOUT AND BLACK VOTER TURNOUT WHICH

MANIFESTS ITSELF IN 1980 ELECTION WOULD AGAIN EMERGE IN

1984.

IN 1980 THERE WAS A CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY

IN THE GENERAL ELECTION BETWEEN THE TURNOUT FIGURES

FOR WHITES AND FoR BLACKS. IN 1982, BLACK TURNOUT

DECLINED SLIGHTLY, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM I,'HAT IT HAD

BEEN IN 1980. WHITE TURNOUT IN THE GENERAL ELECTION IN

FORSYTH IN 1982 DECLINED SUBSTANTIALLY--20 PERCENTAGEo
F P. O. Ad;tait
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING. INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 976.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

POINTS--FROM WHAT IT HAD BEEN IN 1982.

CLEARLY, 1982 IS NOT A REPRESENTATIVE YEAR,

NOR ARE THE CIRCUMSTANCES-.MULTIPLICY OF WHITE CANDI-

DATES, LOW WHITE TURNOUT, OFF PRESIDENTIAL YEAR--WHICH

OCCURRED IN 1982 LIKELY TO REPEAT THEMSELVES IN THE

FUTURE. AND CERTAINLY AT WORST ONE CAN SAY THERE IS NO

GUARANTEE THAT THEY I^IOULD REPEAT THEMSELVES II.I THE

FUTURE.

!,UDGE PH I LLI PS : LET ME ASK: ARE WE

THROUGH WITH FORSYTH?

MS.. WINNER: YES, YOUR HONOR.

\TUDGE PHI LLIPS: THI S SeemS TO BE A GOOD

TIME TO BREAK FOR LUNCH. LET ME ASK IN ANTICIPATION OF

THE DEFENDANTS CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF A STIPULA-

TION WITH RESPECT TO THE BACKGROUND EXHIBITS THAT

suPPoRT THESE CONCLUSIoNS, WOULD yOU IDENTIFy NOW By

NUMBER THOSE EXHIBITS THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THAT

HAVE NOT BEEN STIPULATED THAT DO PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND

DATA? WHICH ONES ARE WE TALKING ABOUT?

MS. WINNER: WE ARE TALKING ABOUT

EXHIBIT NUMBER LL, WHICH IN FACT HAS SIX APPENDICES,

ALTHOUGH TWO OF THOSE ARE JUST EXAMPLES AND ARE NOT VERY

MATERIAL. AND THEN WE ARE ABOUT EXHIBITS L3, L4, L5, 1

17 AND 18, WHICH ARE THE SUMMARIES OF THE ANALYSES OF

EACH ELECTION IN EACH OF THE COUNTIES.

A ,. O. 3or lttat
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PRECISION REPORTING
ANO TRANSCBIBING, INC. I^AIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.157'l
PTO€NIX, ARIZONA

JUDGE PHILLIPS: NOW, MR. LEONARD,

COULD YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THAT RANGE OF EXHIBITS AND

APPENDICES THAT YOU HAVE NOT STIPULATED TO DURING LUNCH

AND CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF THAT?

MR. LEONARD: IF THE CoURT PLEASE, WE

WILL MOST CERTAINLY DO THAT. YOUR'HONOR"IS'SUGGESTlNG 'I.

THAT WE HAVE A WRITTEN STIPULATION. I THINK FRANKLY THA

WE WILL NOT 
.NEED 

THAT UNLESS THE COURT WANTS IT.

': .JUDGE 
PHI LL I PS : NO. I DON I T WANT THAT.

I JUST WANT TO KNOW WHETHER THERE I S ANY NEED TO

DEVELOP IT FURTHER OR WHETHER YOU TNTEND TO SPEND ANY

TIME CHALLENGING THE BASIC ACCURACY OF THE MATHEMATICS

OF THOSE EXHIBITS.

MR. LEONARD: WE WILL DO THAT, SIR.

!,UDGE PHILLIPS: ALL RIGHT. WE WILL TAKE

A RECESS UNTIL 2:.15

(Tne PROCEEDING wAS REcESSED AT 12:46 P.M.,

T0 RECONVENE A.f 2: L5 P. M. , TH I S SAME DAY . )

F P. O. ld ,Lt6
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PRECISION REPORTING
ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.157.1

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

FURTHER PROCEEDINGS 2:20 P.

(WHEREUPON,

BERNARD N. GROFMAN

THE WITNESS ON THE STAND AT THE TIME OF RECESS, RESUMED

THE STAND AND TESTIFIED FURTHER AS FoLLowS:)

.JUDGE DUPREE : GOOD AFTERNOON, LAD I ES AND

GENTLEMEN. ANY FURTHER EVIDENCE FOR THE PLAINTIFF?

MS. WINNER: YES, SIR. WHEN MR. LEONARD

WAS GOING OVER EXHIBITS L3 THROUGH 18, HE DTD DISCOVER AN

ERROR WHICH I WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT TO THE COURT, AL-

THOUGH IT IS MINOR. ON EXHIBIT 14(D), THE VERY FIRST PAGE

A BLACK CANDIDATE IS LABELED I'WHITEII AND A WHITE CANDIDATE

IS LABELED TIBLACK,II ALTHOUGH ALL THE NUMBERS ARE CORRECT.

JUDGE BRITT: l4--WHICH ONE IS THAT, MS.

WINNER?

MS. WINNER: (D).

MS. WINNER: CANDIDATE NUMBER 1 SHOULD

BE LABELED ''DB,'' STANDING FOR I'DEMOCRAT BLACK.'I AND

CANDIDATE NUMBER 2 SHOULD BE LABELED ''DW, '' STANDING FOR

IIDEMOCRAT WH I TE . II

DIRECT EXAMINATION 2i2L P.
(RE SUMED )

BY MS. WINNER:

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GROFMAN-75



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

DR. GROFMAN, DID YOU REACH ANY CONCLUSIONS

AS A RESULT OF YOUR ANALYSIS ABOUT MECKLENBURG COUNTY?

YES. I REACHED SOME CONCLUSIONS ABOUT MECK-

LENBURG COUNTY SPECIFICALLY IN ADDITION TO THE GENERAL

CONCLUSIONS APPLICABLE TO ALL OF THE DISTRICTS THAT I

LOOKED AT.

a WHAT WERE ITHE SPECIFIC CONCIiUSTONS T!-{AT YOU '

REACHED- ABOUT I.4ECKtEI',tB.URG COUI.JTY ?

A .MY CLEAR CONCLUSIONS ABOUT MECKLENBURG WERE

VERY SIMILAR TO MY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FORSYTH. IN MECK.

,LENBURG, 
BLACKS WI LL LOSE UNLESS REPUBLICANS DO POORLY

SINCE, AS I NOTED BEFORE, TF'THERE IS A REPUBLICAN

WINNER HE OR SHE WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO KNOCK OFF THE

BLACK DEMOCRAT RATHER THAN A WHITE DEMOCRAT BECAUSE OF

THE RACIAL POLARIZA'TION THAT EXISTS IN THE ELECTION.

THIS ALSO IMPLIES THAT ONE CAN EXPECT A

DIFFERENCE IN ELECTION OUTCOMES IN YEARS IN WHICH THERE

ARE SPECIAL INCENTIVES FOB REPUBLICAI'I TURNOUT THAN IN

OTHER YEARS-.IN PARTICULAR, YEARS IN WHICH THERE IS A

REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT OR A POPULAR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE

RUNNING EITHER FOR A NATIONAL OR A STATEWIDE TICKET.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: DO YOU THINK YOU COULD

SUMMARIZE THE CONCLUSIONS THAT YOU HAVE REACHED IN

GENERAL WITH RESPECT TO ALL OF THESE AND SIMPLY DEVOTE

YOUR---

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THE l^l I TNESS : (r NrrRpos rNG) uo.

wITH RESPEcT, YoUR HoNoR, I coULD NoT. 'THE coNCLUSIoNS

DO, IN FACT, DIFFER FROM COUNTY TO COUNTY.

\,UDGE PHI LLIPS: VERY WELL.

BY MS. WINNER:

a Do you HAVE ANy OTHER CONCLUSIONS ABOUT

MECKLENBURG COUNTY?

A YES. IN MECKLENBURG--AND THIS IS, INDEED, A

GENERAL CONCLUSION;WHICH APPLIES TO ALL OF THE COUNTIES.

I INDICATED THIS CONCLUSION PREVIOUSLY FOR FORSYTH. IN

MECKLENBURG AND FORSYTH AND IN THE OTHER DI S'TRICTS WHICH

I LOOKED',ATT',TT.HERE.T.ARE NO )CONSTI,STENT TRENDS OVER THE

COURSE OF THE THREE ELECTIONS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT

RACIAL POLARIZATION IS DECLINING OVER TIME IN THESE

COUNTIES OR IN THESE DISTRICTS.

. A DO YOU HAVE FURTHER CONCLUSIONS SPECIFICALLY

ABOUT MECKLENBURG COUNTY?

A NO; I DO NOT.

a DID YOU EXAMTNE THE 1982 HOUSE RACE rN

MECKLENBURG COUNTY?

A YES; I DID

a WERE YOU PRESENT rN DR. HoFLERtS DEPOSITION

' WHERE HE GAVE AN EXPLANATION FOR WHY CANDIDATE RICHARD-

SON LOST ?

A YES; I WAS.

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A DO YOU RECALL WHAT THAT EXPLANATION WAS?

A DR. HOFLER INDICATED AS A FACTOR IN THE

DEFEAT OF MR. RICHARDSON THE FACT THAT HE RECEIVED

INADEQUATE SUPPORT FROM THE BLACK COMMUNITY.

A DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT ANALYSIS?

A NO; I DO NOT.

a v,/HY NOT ?

A IF ONE LOOKS AT THE DATA WHICH IS TO BE FOUND

IN APPENDIX 
', 

TABLE I2 YOU WILL SEE THAT MR' RICHARDSON

RECEIVED THE VOTES OF BB PERCENT OF THE BLACK VOTERS AND

T.HE VOTES OF ONLY 29 PERCENT OF THE WftlTE VOTERS--THrS

IN A COUNTY WHICH IS OVER--AND LOST TO A REPUBLICAN IN

A COUNTY WHICH IS OVERWHELMINGLY DEMOCRAT.

GIVEN THAT 88 PERCENT OF THE BLACK VOTERS

VOTED FOR HIM AND 2I PERCENT OF THE WHITE MA.JORITY

POPULATION OF THE DISTRICT VOTED FOR HIM, IT SEEMS TO ME

RATHER ABSURD TO BLAI4E HIS LACK OF SUCCESS ON A FAILURE

OF ADEQUATE SUPPORT FROM T.HE BLACK COMMUNITY.

(GO TO THE NEXT PAGE. )

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC.

GROFMAN. T 9

AAAIN OFFICE. RALEIGH, 832.90S5

779-3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

BY MS. WINNER:

a DID you ALSo EXAMINE T'HE '1980 SENATE'"RACE

IN MECKLENBURG COUNTY?

A YES; I DID.

A WHO WAS THE BLACK CA}JDIDATE IN THAT RACE?

A IN THE 19BO SENATE RACE IN MECKLENBURG

COUNTY, THE BLACK CANDIDATE WAS ALEXANDER, WHO WAS

OFFICIALLY LISTED ON THE BALLOT.

A DO YOU HAVE BEFORE YOU PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT

NuI'4eeR 13(P)?

(PI.RINTIFFS EXHIBIT NO. 15(P)

WAS MARKED FOR IDENTTFICATION

A YES; I Do. t3(e)--veS; I Do:

q WHAT rs ExHrBrr 13(P)?

A EXHIBIT 13(P) IS A SERIES OF NEWSPAPER

ARTICLES DEALING WITH THE PROCESS WHICH OCCURRED AFTER

MR. ALEXANDERTS DEATH.

A CAN YOU DESCRIBE BRIEFLY WHAT HAPPENED AFTER

MR. ALEXANDER DIED?

A THE NEWSPAPER ARTICLES INDICATE THAT WHILE

NORTH CAROLINA LAW IS NOT CLEAR AS TO WHAT SHOULD HAPPE

IF A CANDIDATE DIES BEFORE HIS NAME CAN BE REMOVED FROM

. THE BALLOT, THAT THE GENERAL INTERPRETATION THAT WAS

GIVEN WAS THAT THE PARTY WOULD SERVE TO NOMINATE AN

INDIVIDUAL TO FILL THE POST IF, IN FACT, MR. ALEXANDER.O

F P. O. ed l'las
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING. INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.457,1

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

V,/AS ELECTED IN THE PR,IMARY. AND THERE ALSO WAS A

BLACK INDIVIDUAL, MR. MOTLEY, WHO WAS APPOINTED AFTER MR

ALEXANDERIS DEATH TO SERVE AS AN APPOINTED INCUMBENT IN

THE SENATORIAL POSITION UNTIL THE ELECTION.

A DOES YOUR READING OF THOSE NEWSPAPER ARTICLES

IN ANY WAY CHANGE YOUR CONCLUSIoNS ABOUT THE SIGNIFICAI.IC

OF YOUR ANALYSIS OF THAT PRIMARY?

A NO; IT DOES NoT.

A DO YOU THINK IT IS A VALID ELECTION TO

ANALYZE UNDER THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES?

IT IS CERTAINLY--YES. THERE ARE NO REAL

DIFFERENCES'IN THAT ELECTION IN TERMS OF RACIAL POLARI-

ZATION THAN IN VARIOUS OTHER ELECTIONS IN MECKLENBURG

COUNTY OVER THE TIME PERIOD THAT I EXAMINED. AND INDEED

IT IS AN ELECTION WHICH, DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE BLACK

CANDIDATE WHOSE NAME OFFICIALLY APPEARED ON THE BALLOT

wAS DEAD, NONETHET-ESS Zg pERCENT OF THE BLACK VOTERS

VOTED FOR THAT CANDIDATE. AND ONLY 25 PERCENT OF THE

WHITE VOTERS DID IN THE PRIMARY.

a Do you HAVE ANy PARTTCULAR CONCLUSIONS ABOUT

DURHAM COUNTY ?

A YES. I HAVE SOME GENERAL CONCLUSIONS ABOUT

DURHAM COUNTY. IN DURHAM I WOULD CONCLUDE THAT WINNING

THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION IS TANTAMOUNT TO ELECTION.

AND THUS THIS MEANS THAT GIVEN THE INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE,

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PRECISION REPOBTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 976.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

IT IS LIKELY THAT PRESENT BLACK INCUMBENTS WOULD HAVE

A REASONABLE PROBABILITY, WHILE CERTAINLY NOT A CERTAIN-

TY, OF RE-ELECTION.

HOWEVER, IF THESE INCUMBENTS DO NOT RUN, THE

OBSERVED LEVELS OF RACIAL POLARIZATION IN THE PRIMARY

MAKE VERY PROBLEMATIC THE SELECTION OF A BLACK CANDIDATE

TO SUPERSEDE A RETIRING BLACK INCUMBENT.

a oN WHAT DO yOU BASE THAT CONCLUSION?

A I BASE THAT CONCLUSION ON MY ANALYSIS OF THE

OBSERVED LEVELS OF POLARIZATION IN THE DURHAM PRIMARY

ELECTIONS, WHICH ARE THE CRTTICAL ELECTIONS TO ANALYZE

IN DURHAM. I F ONE LOOKS, FOR eXArUele, nr THE ELECTION

BEFORE WHILE MR. SPAULDING WAS AN INCUMBENT:-OR FOR

THAT MATTER, IF WE LOOK EVEN AT THE 1gg2 HOUSE ELECTIoN-

wE DISCoVER, FOR EXAMpLE, THAT IN 1gg0--SORRY--IN 1g7g

60 PERCENT OF THE WHITE VOTERS VOTED FOR THE MORE POPU.

LAR oF THE TWO BLACK'CANDIDATES; WHEREAS 92 PERCENT OF

THE BLACK VOTERS VOTED FOK THAT CANDIDATE. 1O PERCENT

OF THE WHITE VOTERS VOTED FOR THE LESS POPULAR AMONG

WHITES OF THE TWO BLACK CANDIDATES; WHEREAS 89 PERCENT

OF THE BLACK VOTERS VOTED FOR THAT CANDIDATE.

AND SIMILARLY, IF WE LOOK AT 1982 WHERE THERE

ISNIT AN INCUMBENT---

MR. LEONARD: (INTERPOSING) EXCUSE

ME. IF THE COURT PLEASE, I CANIT FOLLOW THIS AT ALL.'o

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBINO. INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

DONIT KNOW WHAT DOCUMENT THE WITNESS IS REFERRING TO:

THE WITNESS: I AM SORRY.

MR. LEONARD: I DON'T KNow WHo THE

CANDIDATES ARE WHO HE IS TALKING ABOUT. I DONIT WANT TO

SLOW DOWN THE PROCEEDINGS. BUT I SIMPLY DON'T KNOW WHAT

HE IS REFERRING TO, YOUR HONOR.

JUDGE PHILLIPS:

HIM ON THAT.

YOU CAN CROSS-EXAMINE

THE WITNESS: To REPEAT, IF I MAY,

BRIEFLY AND CLEARLY, THE CANDIDATES IN 1978, MR.

SPAULDING AND MR. CLEMENTS..ONE RECEIYED 1O PERCENT OR

TEN PERCENT OF WHITE VOTERS VOTED FOR ONE OF THESE

CANDIDATES. 16 PERCENT OF WHITE VOTERS VOTED FOR THE

OTHER. 89 PERCENT OF BLACK VOTERS VOTED FOR ONE OF TH

CANDIDATES. 92 PERCENT OF BLACK VOTERS VOTED FOR THE

OTI-'ER. THE DATA IN QUESTION ARE TO BE FOUND ON THE FIRS

PAGE OF APPENDIX 
' 

TO EXHIBIT 11, TABLE 1.

oKAy. TURNING JO THE 1982 ELECTION, SINCE

ONE WOULD NOT WISH TO BE ACCUSED OF NOT LOOKING AT L982,

37 PERCENT OF THE WHITE VOTERS VOTED FOR THE INCUMBENT

BLACK CANDIDATE. AND THAT IS TO SAY, 73 PERCENT OF THE

WHITE VOTERS DIDNIT--t AM SORRY.-63 PERCENT OF THE WHTTE

VOTERS DID NOT VOTE FOR THE INCUMBENT BLACK CANDIDATE IN

THE PRIMARY. AND ON THE OTHER HAND, 90 PERCENT OF THE

BLACK VOTERS DID VOTE FOR THE INCUMBENT BLACK CANDIDATE,

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING. INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-36t9 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

MR. SPAULDING.

BY MS. WINNER:

DR. GROFMAN, HOW MANY CANDIDATES WERE THERE

IN THE DURHAM COUNTY PRIMARY IN 1982?

A THERE WERE FOUR CANDIDATES IN THE DURHAM

PRIMARY IN 1982, TWO OF THEM BLACK AND TWO OF THEM

WHI TE.

HOW MANY SEATS WERE THERE?

THERE I^'ERE THREE SEATS TO BE FILLED.

DOES THAT INFLUENCE YOUR ANALYSIS OF THAT

COUNTY_.THAT ELECTION?

A THAT MAKES IT EVEN MORE PATENTLY OBVIOUS TO

THE EXTENT OF RACIAL POLARIZATION, INSOFAR AS THE

PRIMARY ELECTION IS ONE IN WHICH IT IS MATHEMATICALLY

CERTAIN THAT A BLACK CANDIDATE MUST BE ELECTED. THAT

IS TO SAy, THERE ARE- TWO WHITEST"TWO BLACKS, THREE

INDIVIDUALS BEING SELECTED. ONE OF THE INDIVIDUALS

SELECTED--AT LEAST ONE OF.THE INDIVIDUALS SELECTED--MUST

BE A BLACK. AT LEAST ONE OF THE INDIVIDUALS SELECTED

MUST BE A WHITE.

WHAT THIS IMPLIES IS THAT WHITE VOTERS IN

SUCH A PRIMARY MIGHT BE INCLINED--KNOWING THAT A BLACK

CRT.IoIDATE IS GUARANTEED OF ELECTION IN THAT PRIMARY-.

MIGHT BE INCLII.IED TO CAST VOTES FOR A PARTICULAR BLACK

CANDIDATE AS OPPOSED TO ANOTHER BLACK CANDIDATE IN ORDER

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PRECISION REPORTING
ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

TO HAVE THE BLACK CITNDIDATE WHOM THEY WOULD REGARD AS

THE LESSER OF TWO EVILS ELECTED. THUS, THERE WOULD BE

AN ADDITIONAL INCENTIVE FOR WHITE VOTERS, EVEN THOSE WHO

MIGHT NOT NORMALLY VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE, TO VOTE

FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE IN AN ELECTION WHERE IT WAS A

CERTAINTY THAT ONE BLACK CANDIDATE WOULD WIN AND THE

QUESTION WAS WHICH ONE WAS IT GOING TO BE.

a

SUMMARY OF

DR. GROFMAN, WHERE WOULD THE COURT FIND THE

YOUR ANALYSIS OF DURHAM COUNTY?

THE SUMMARY OF MY ANALYSIS OF DURHAM COUNTY

WOULD BE FOUND IN--I BELIEVE IT IS EXHIBIT NUMBER 15.

A HAVE YOU DRAWN ANY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT WAKE

COUNTY ?

YES. MY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT WAKE COUNTY ARE

SIMILAR TO MY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT DURHAM COUNTY. AGAIN

IN WAKE, WINNING THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION IS TANTAMOUNT

TO ELECTION. AND AGAIN, THERE IS SOME REASONABLE

PROBABILITY THAT THE PRESENT BLACK INCUMBENT, GTVEN THE

INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE, MAY BE ABLE TO SUCCEED. BUT THE

OBSERVED LEVELS OF RACIAL POLARIZATION OVER THE COURSE

OF THE ELECTIONS ANALYZED WHEN ONE LOOKS AT THE PRIMARY

MAKE VERY PROBLEMATIC THE SELECTION OF A BLACK CANDTDATE

TO SUCCEED A RETIRING BLACK INCUMBENT.

THERE WERE, IF YOU GO BACK IN TIME, PERIODS

WHEN WAKE WAS, IN FACT, UNREPRESENTED. AND AS I READ

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THE POLARIZATION DATA, ABSENT THE CONTINUATIQN IN THE

RACE OF A BLACK INCUI.4BENT THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT IN

THE FUTURE WAKE WILL NOT ALSO BE UNREPRESENTED BY A B

RE PRESENTAT I VE .

AGAIN, VERY SIMILAR SORTS OF ANALYSIS CAN BE

DONE FOR WAKE. WE OBSERVE IN THE WAKE PRIMARIES--I AM

AGAIN REFERRING TO TABLE T, APPENDIX 
' 

TO EXHIBIT LI,

THIS TIME ON PAGE 2.-THAT AT MOST ANYWHERE FROM 60 TO

ROUGHLY 80 PERCENT OF THE ITHITE VoTERS DO NOT VOTE FOR A

BLACK CANDIDATE IN THE PRIMARY; WHEREAS, ANYWHERE FROM

7 6 TO 82 PERCENT OF THE BLACK VOTERS DO VOTE FOR A BLACK

CANDIDATE IN THE PRIMARY.

a rs rHE SUMMARY OF YoUR CONCLUSIONS 0R OF YOUR

ANALYSIS OF WAKE COUNTY FOUND IN PAAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT

NUMBER 17 ?

(pIAINTIFFS EXHIBIT NO. 17 WAS

MARKED FOR IDENTIFICATION. )

A YES; IT IS.

a Do You HAVE ANY GENER.AL CONCLUSIONS ABOUT

HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER 8..THAT IS, THE WILSON-EDGECOMBE-

NASH DISTRICT?

A YES. IN HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER 8 PRESENTLY

CONSTITUTING THE UIILSON-EDGECOMBE.NASH AREA, RACIAL

POLARIZATION IS SO EXTREME THAT IN MY VIEW NO BLACK HAS

ANY CHANCE OF I.,INNING THAT DISTRICT AS IT IS PRESENTLY

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX. ARIZONA

CONST I TUTED .

ON WHAT DO YOU BASE THAT CONCLUSION?

A I BASE THAT CONCLUSION ON THE DATA WHICH IS

SHOWN IN TABLE L, TABLE 2 AND TABLE 3. LET ME FOR

SIMPLICITY JUST FIRST TURN TO TABLE T, WHTCH IS I THINK

ADEQUATELY I LLUSTRATIVE.

HERE, IF WE LOOK AT THE COMBINED EDGECOMBE-

WILSON-NASH DATA, WHICH IS SHOWN DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE

RACE DATA THAT IS JUST ABBREVIATED AS IIEWNII..THIS IS

TABLE I, WHICH IS APPENDIX 3 TO EXHTBIT tt, PAGE 2. IF

WE LOOK AT THE PRIMARIES--AND IN THIS.DISTRICT NO BLACK

HAS EVER MADE IT INTO A GENERAL ELECTION--WE OBSERVE

THAT THE PROPORTION OF WHITE VOTES FOR THE BLACK CANDI.

DATE IN THE 1982 HOUSE PRIMARY WAS 4 PERCENT. THAT IS

TO SAY, 96 PERCENT OF THE WHITE VOTERS DID NOT VOTE

FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE COMPARED TO 66 PERCENT OF THE

BLACK VOTERS, WHO DID VOTE FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE.

IF WE LOOK AT THE RACIAL POLARIZATION IN THE

MICHAUX-VALENTINE FIRST AND SECOND CONGRESSIONAL PRI-

MARIES, WHICH ALSO TOOK PLACE IN 1982, WE AGAIN SEE FROM

TABLE L, WHICH IS EXHIBIT 3 TO APPENDIX-.I AM SORRY;

THIS IS EXHIBIT 11, APPENDIX 3, PAGE 2 OF TABLE l--WE

SEE THAT IN THE FIRST CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY WE ESTII4ATED

2 PERCENT OF THE WHTTE VOTERS VOTED FOR THE BLACK CANDI-

DATE. IN THE SECOND CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY WE ESTIMATED

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THAT 5 PERCENT OF THE WHI TE VOTERS VOTED FOR THE

BLACK CANDIDATE; WHEREAS, IN THE FIRST CONGRESSIoNAL

PRIMARY WE ESTIMATED 84 PERCENT OF THE BLACK VOTERS

VOTED FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE. AND IN THE SECOND

CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY, WE ESTIMATED THAT 91 PERCENT OF

THE BLACK VOTERS VOTED FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE.

THE DEGREE OF RACIAL POLARIZATION THERE IS

SO EXTREME THAT I THII.,IK IT UNCONTROVERTIBLE BASED ON

THIS EVIDENCE THAT GIVEN THE SUBMERGENCE OF BLACKS IN A

MAJORITY WHITE, MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT-.EDGECOMBE, WILSON

AND NASH--THERE WILL NOT BE-_AND GIVEN POLARIZATION--

THERE SIMPLY WILL NOT BE A SUCCESSFUL 
''-O'* 

CANDIDATE

IN EDGECoMBE, wILSoN AND NASH--IN THAT oisrntcr.

DR. GROFMAN, TURNING YOUR ATTENTION TO

PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT NUMBER 11, WOULD YOU IDENTIFY WHAT

APPENDIX NUMBER 1 IS?

A JUST GIVE ;; A MoMENT To SHUFFLE EXHIBITS

HERE. YES. PLAINTIFFSI EXI.IIBIT 11 I HAVE NOW BEFORE ME.

WHAT IS APPENDIX NUMBER 1?

A APPENDIX NUMBER !, WHICH IS T}JO RATHER BULKY

COMPUTER PRINTOUTS, ARE ILLUSTRATIVE OF THE TECHNIQUES

OF ANALYSIS WHICH I USED TO GENERATE THE NUMBERS WHICH

APPEAR IN PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBITS 13 THROUGH 18 AND WHICH

ALSO APPEAR IN THE COMBINED TABLES WHICH ARE APPENDIX

3 TO EXHIBIT 11.

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

BASICALLY, THOSE SHOW THE ECOLOGICAL RE_

GRESSION ANALYSES THAT I PERFORMED. THEY ALSO SHOW THE

EXTREME CASE ANALYSES THAT I PERFORMED. I PROVIDED TWO

ILLUSTRATIVE PRINTOUTS SINCE I DID NOT FEEL IT APPRO-

PRIATE TO BURDEN THE COURT WITH THE OTHER 51.

A WHAT IS APPENDIX NUMBER 2 TO EXHIBIT NUMBER

t1?

A APPENDIX 2 AGAIN IS FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES

ONLY. IT MATCHES UP WITH ONE OF THE TWO COMPUTER

PRINTOUTS IN APPENDIX 1. AND IT IS A 24 OR 25-PAGE

CODING SHEET WHICH SIMPLY SHOWS HOW ONE GOES FROM THE

RAW DATA WHICH IS REPRESENTED IN THE PRINTOUT TO

PROPORTIONS AND NUMBERS OF THE SORT THAT ARE REPRESENTED

IN APPENDICES 1' THROUGH 18 AND IN APPENDIX..I AM SORRY.

IN EXHIBITS L3 THROUGH 18 AND IN APPENDIX 
' 

TO EXHIBIT

11., THESE ARE AGAIN PURELY FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES

SO THE COURT CAN SEE;;' RATHER COMPLEX PROCESS BY WHICH

THE BASIC ELECTION DATA IS JRANSFORMED INTO THE NUMBERS

WHICH APPEAR ON THE PAGES BEFORE THE COURT.

WHAT.IS APPENDIX NUMBER 3 TO EXHIBIT NUMBER

11?

A APPENDIX NUMBER 5 TO EXHIBIT 11,

HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN REFERRING, IS A SET OF

PROVIDES FOR EACH OF THE 53 ELECTIONS WHICH

BASIC SUMMARY DATA HAVING TO DO WTiN RACIAL

TO WHICH WE

TABLES WHICH

I LOOKED AT

POLAR I ZAT I

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PRECISION REPORTING
ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 976.1571
PI-|oENIX, ARIZONA

TABLE 1 PROVIDES DATA ON THE PROPORTION OF

BLACK AND WHITE VOTERS WHO VOTE FOR EACH BLACK CANDIDATE

TABLE 2 PROVIDES DATA ON THE RANKINGS THAT WHITE AND

BLACK VOTERS GIVE TO EACH OF THE BLACK CANDIDATES. AND

TABLE 3 PROVIDES DATA ON THE PROPORTION OF THE TOTAL

VOTE THAT GOES TO BLACK CANDIDATES AS CAST BY WHITE

VOTERS AND BY BLACK VOTERS.

A AND WHAT IS APPENDIX NUMBER 4 TO PLAINTIFFSI

EXHIBIT NUMBER 11?

A APPENDIX NUMBER 4 TO PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT 11..

WHICH AGAIN IS DATA WHICH WE HAVE PREVIOUSLY LOOKED AT,

AT LEAST IN PART-.IS A SET OF 53 GRAPHS, AGAIN ONE FOR

EACH ELECTION WHICH I HAVE ANALYZED, WHICH SHOW THE

EXTENT OF RACIAL POLARIZATION BY LOOKING AT THE

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PROPORTION OF THE VOTE RECEIVED

BY -BLACK CANDIDATES IN EACH DISTRICT AND THE PROPORTION

OF THAT--I AM SORRY-.IN EACH PRECINCT; AND THE PROPORTI

OF EACH PRECINCT WHICH IS WHITE.

A WHAT IS APPENDIX NUMBER 5 TO PLAINTIFFSI

EXHI BIT NUMBER 1 1 ?

A APPENDIX NUMBER 5 TO PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT

NUBMER 11 IS A STACK OF WHAT ARE CALLED BIVARIANT

. CORRELATION TABLES. THEY PROVIDE FOR EACH RACE--AND

AGAIN, THERE ARE 53 OF THESE TABLES--THE RELATIONSHIP

BETWEEN VOTER SUPPORT RECEIVED BY EACH CANDIDATE AS

- 
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AND TRANSCRIBING, tNC.

GROFMAN-90

MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085
779.3619 876.4s71
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

COMPARED TO THE NATURE OF THE VOTER SUPPORT RECEIVED B

EACH OTHER CANDIDATE. THAT IS PAIRED. IT COMPARES

THE EXTENT TO WHICH CANDIDATE 1 AND CANDIDATE 2

RECEIVED VOTES FROM SIMILAR SETS OF VOTERS.

WHEN THESE CORRELATIONS ARE POLITIVE, THIS

MEANS THAT THE CANDIDATES IN QUESTION ARE DRATIING THEIR

VOTING SUPPORT FROM SIMILAR ELEMENTS OF THE ELECTORATE.

WHEN THESE CORRELATIONS ARE NEGATIVE, THIS INDICATES

THAT CANDIDATES ARE DRAWING THEIR SUPPORT FROM DIFFERENT

SECTIONS OF THE ELECTORATE.

. A AND HOW DO YOU DETERMINE WHO EACH CANDIDATE

IS AND WHAT RACE AND PARTY THEY BELONG TO?

A AS SUPPOBTING DOCUMENTATION FOR APPENDIX 5 TO

EXHIBIT 11, INDICATED AT THE BOTTOM OF EACH ONE OF THESE

53 CORRELATION TABLES IS A LISTING OF ALL THE CANDIDATES

IN THAT RACE ALONG WITH THE RACE AND THE PARTY OF THOSE

CAND I DATES.

A AND WHAT IS APPENDIX NUMBER 6 TO PLAINTIFFSI

EXHIBIT NUMBER 11?

A APPENDIX NUMBER 6 TO EXHIBIT 11 IS A COMPARI-

SON OF THE EFFECTS OF SINGLE-MEMBER AND MULTI-MEMBER

DISTRICTS IN SOUTHERN STATES WITH BLACK POPULATION OVER

15 PERCENT AND TREATS THE EFFECTS OF SINGLE AND MULTI-

MEMBER DISTRICTS AND ALSO CHANGES FROM MULTI-MEMBER

DISTRICTS TO SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS OVER THE PERIOD

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TBANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876-1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

L977 TO 198r.

WHAT DO YOU CONCLUDE FROM APPENDIX NUMBER 6

TO PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT NUMBER 11?

FROM APPENDIX 6 TO EXHIBIT 11 WE MAY CONCLUDE

IF WE LOOK AT THE SUMMARY DATA WHICH IS PROVIDED

BASICALLY DOt^rN AT THE BOTTOM OF APPENDIX 6, IF WE LOOK

AT THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF BLACK REPRESENTATIVES IN STATES

WITH PREDOMINANTLY MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS IN BLACK AREAS

THERE ARE A TOTAL OF 3.8 BLACK..NOT TOTAL--AN AVERAGE OF

3.8 BLACK REPRESENTATIVES IN STATES WITH PREDOMINANTLY

MULT I -MEMBER IDI STR I CTS .

IF WE LOOK IN 1977 AT THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF

BLACK REPRESNETATIVES IN STATES WITH PREDOMINANTLY

SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS IN BLACK AREAS, WE FIND THAT

THERE ARE AN AVERAGE OF 14.5 BLACK REPRESENTATIVES IN

SUCH STATES. THAT IS. TO SAY, STATES WITH SINGLE-MEMBER

DISTRICTS IN BLACK AREAS HAVE APPROXIMATELY MORE THAN

THREE TIMES THE AVERAGE BLACK REPRESENTATION OF STATES

WITH PREDOMINANTLY MULTI.MEMBER DISTRICTS IN BLACK AREAS

AND THESE ARE, OF COURSE, SOUTHERN STATES WITH BLACK

POPULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT.

EXACTLY SIMILAR DATA IS PROVIDED FOR 1982.

AND ONCE AGAIN, WE FIND THAT THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF BLACK

REPRESENTATI.VES IN STATES I.IITH PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE-

MEMBER DISTRICTS IN BLACK AREAS, 15.8, IS MORE THAN

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AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE. RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THREE TIMES AS LARGE AS THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF BLACK

REPRESENTATIVES IN STATES WITH PREDOMINANTLY MULTI-

MEMBER DISTRICTS IN BLACK AREAS, WHICH IS 4.8.

AND IN L983, AGAIN THE SAME FINDING: THE

AVERAGE NUMBER OF BLACK REPRESENTATIVES IN STATES WITH

PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS IN BLACK AREAS IS

18.4. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF BLACK REPRESENTATIVES IN

STATES WITH PREDOMINANTLY MULTI.MEMBER DISTRICTS IN

BLACK AREAS IN 198, WAS 6. ONCE AGAIN, THE REPRESENTA-

TION OF BLACKS IN THE SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT STATES IS

MORE THAN THREE TIMES AS LARGE AS IN THE MULTI.MEMBER

DISTRICT STATES.

FURTHERMORE, WE CAN BY INSPECTION OF THE

DATA ABOVE IN TABLE 3 LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENS TO STATES

WHICH SHIFT FROM PREDOMINANTLY MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS

IN BLACK AREAS TO PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS

IN BLACK AREAS.

wE cAN LOOK, F.3R EXAMPLE, AT THE STATE OF

MI SSI SSI PPI . BY JULY L982 MISSI SS I PPI SHI FTED FROM

PREDOI,IINANTLY MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS TO PREDOMINANTLY

SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS. MISSISSIPPI WITH PREDOI4INANTLY

MULTI.MEMBER DISTRICTS HAD FOUR BLACK REPRESENTATIVES.

MISSISSIPPI WITH PREDOI,IINANTLY SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS

IN BLACK AREAS HAD L7 BLACK REPRESENTATIVES, MORE THAN

QUADRUPLINC THE NUMBER OF BLACK REPRESENTATIVES.

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

FURTHERMORE, THIS SHIFT IS NOT A ONE-TTME

AFFAIR BECAUSE IF WE LOOK AT THE NEXT ELECTION PERIOD,

WHICH WILL BE REPRESENTED BY THE DATA IN THE .JULY 198,

COLUMN, WE SEE THAT IN THE NEXT ELECTION MISSISSIPPI

RETAINS L7 BLACK REPRESENTATIVES, AS COMPARED TO THE

FOUR BLACK REPRESENTATIVES IT HAD WHEN ITS DISTRICTS

WERE PREDOMINANTLY MULTI-MEMBER.

SIMILARLY, WHEN WE LOOK AT FLORIDA, FLORIDA

SHIFTED BETWEEN JULY 182 AND JULY '8' FROM PREDOMINANTLY

MULTI-MEMBER TO PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS.

IN I77 WITH MULTI -MEMBER DI STRICTS FL.9RIDA HAD THREE

BLACK REPRESENTATIVES. IN 182 WITH PREDOMINANTLY

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS FLORIDA HAD FIVE BLACK REPRESEN.

TATIVES. IN 198' WITH PREDOI.'IINANTLY SINGLE.MEMBER

DISTRICTS IN BLACK AREAS, FLORIDAIS BLACK REPRESENTATION

WENT UP TO L2. AGAIN, FLORIDAIS REPRESENTATION MORE

THAN DOUBLED AFTER--AND I MIGHT ADD, AS A RESULT OF..

A. SHIFT FROM MULTI-MEMBER.DISTRICTS TO SINGLE-MEMBER

DISTRICTS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION--POTENTIAL EXCEPTION-.TO

THE QUESTION OF SUBMERGENCE VIA MULTI-I4EMBER DISTRICTS

IS MARYLAND. AND IN MARYLAND ALL OF THE MULTI-MEMBER

DISTRICTS WHICH ELECT BLACKS ARE MAJORITY BLACK MULTI-

MEMBER DISTRICTS. SO THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION OF THE 23.

MS. WINNER: AT THIS POINT I MOVE

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

INTO EVIDENCE PLAINTIFFSI

18.

EXHIBIT NUMBERS 1I THROUGH

MR. LEONARD: WE HAVE NO OBJ ECT I ON,

YOUR HONOR.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: THEY WILL BE RECEIVED.

(pIeINTIFFS EXHIBIT NoS. ].1

THROUGH 18 WERE RECEIVED IN

EVIDENCE.)

BY MS. WINNER:

a DR. GROFMAN, DO yOU HAVE BEFORE yOU PLAIN-;

TIFFSI EXHIBIT NUMBER 19? THIS IS A.RETURN TO THE NOTE

(PLATNTl'FFS EXHIBIT NO. 19

WAS MARKED FOR IDENTIFICATICT\T

YES. I HAVE---

JUDGE PHILLIPS: (INTERPoSING) LET ME

ASK ONE QUESTION ABOUT APPENDIX 6. THIS DATA DOES CUT

ACROSS ANY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF REPRESENTATIVES IN

THESE---

THE WITNESS: (TruTTRPOSING) TO THE

BEST OF MY KNOWLEDGE, IT DOES NOT; NOR GIVEN THE TIME

PERIOD ARE THERE REAL CHANGES IN THE BLACK POPULATION IN

THE STATES.

BY MS. WINNER:

A DR. GROFMAN, WHAT IS PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT

NUMBER 19?

A P. O.8d 2!tfB
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT NUMBER 19 SHOWS FIRST

PARTICIPATION AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUCCESS OR LACK

THEREOF IN GENERAL ELECTIONS IN THE EIGHT MULTI-MEMBER

DISTRICTS WHICH WE HAVE BEEN DI SCUSSING. IIN THE PERIODS

1970 TO 1982 AND ALSO SPECIFICALLY IN 1982.

A WAS THI S EXHI BIT PREPARED UNDER YOUR

DIRECTION?

A YES. THIS EXHIBIT WAS PREPARED UNDER MY

DIRECTION.

A WHAT CONCLUSIONS CAN YOU DRAW FROM THIS

EXHIBIT?

A I WOULD DRAW FOUR CONCLUSIONS. FIRST, IF WE

LOOK-.AND THE KEY PART OF THIS TABLE, REALLY, IS THE

BOTTOM SECTION. IF WE LOOK AT THE BOTTOM PART OF THE

TABLE AND WE LOOK AT THE SUCCESS IN GENERAL ELECTIONS--

ACTUALLY, THE SUCCESS. IS THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATES THAT

LOSE. SO THE LABELING IS A BIT MISLEADING.

AND WE HAVE DIVIDED SUCCESS IN TERMS OF

WHITES AND BLACKS AND IN TERMS OF REPUBLICANS AND

DEMOCRATS--THE TWO FEATURES WHICH WE MIGHT EXPECT WOULD

INFLUENCE ELECTORAL SUCCESS MOST IMPORTANTLY IN NORTH

CAROL I NA.

IF WE LOOK IN PARTICULAR AT DEMOCRATS DURING

THE WHOLE PERIOD 1970 TO 1982, WE oBSERVE THAT 11.8

PERCENT OF ALL DEMOCRATS WHO RAN FOR. OFFICE IN GENERAL

o
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCFIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1511
PHOENIX, ARIZOO.IA

ELECTIONS IN THESE EIGHT DISTRICTS IN THE PERIOD 1970

TO 1982 LOST:-THAT IS TO SAy, OF THOSE WHO RAN AND

ALREADY HAD MADE IT THROUGH THE PRIMARY PROCESS.

SIMILARLy, OF BLACKS 33.3 pERCENT OF THE

BLACKS WHO RAN IN GENERAL:IELECTIONS IN ONE OR THE OTHER

OF THESE EIGHT DISTRICTS LOST, SO THAT THE BLACK LOSS

RATE CONTROLLING FOR PARTY--THAT IS, LOOKING ONLY AT

DEMOCRATS--THE BLACK LOSS RATE IS ROUGHLY THREE TIMES

THAT OF WHITE DEMOCRATS. BLACK DEMOCRATS ARE THREE

TIMES MORE LIKELY TO LOSE ELECTIONS THAN WHITE DEMOCRATS

a DID you DRAW ANy OTHER CONCLUSIONS FRoM

THIS EXHIBIT?

A YES. CONTINUING NOW TO LOOK AT THE LEFT-

HAND BOTTOM SIDE OF THIS CHART, WE OBSERVE THAT IF

WE NOW LOOK AT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WHITE AND BLACK

SUCCESS RATE AMONG REPUBLICANS, ONCE AGAIN, WHILE 75.9

PERCENT OF WHITE REPUBLICANS LOSE, 1OO PERCENT OF BLACK

REPUBLICANS LOSE

a LooKING AT THE 1982 PORTION OF THE GRAPH, DO

YOU DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT 1982 FROM THAT?

A YES. I HAVE TWO PARTICULAR CONCLUSIONS

RELEVANT TO 1982. FIRST, I WOULD CALL THE COURTTS

ATTENTION TO THE FACT THAT IN 1982 NO WHITE DEMOCRAT WH

RAN FOR OFFICE IN ANY OF THESE DISTRICTS LOST. BUT 28.

PERCENT OF THE BLACK DEMOCRATS WHO RAN FOR OFFICE IN

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PI{oENIX, ARIZONA

1 982 LOST.

THE OTHER POINT I WOULD MAKE ABOUT 1982,

WHICH CAN BE OBTAINED BY COMPARING THE 1982 DATA WITH

THE 1970 AND 1982 AVERAGES, IS THAT 1982 WAS AN ATypI-

CALLY BAD YEAR FOR REPUBLICANS. THAT IS TO SAY, IN

1982 92.3 PERCENT OF ALL REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES LOST;

WHEREAS, IF WE COMBINE WHITE AND BLACK REPUBLICANS FOR

THE PERIOD OF 1970 TO 1982 TO GET THE AVERAGE SUCCESS

RATE OF REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES OVER THE LONG TIME PERIOD

ONLY 78.6 ON AVERAGE OF REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES LOST.

THUS, L9B2 WAS A YEAR IN WHICH REPUBLICANS--

RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS REPUBLICAN SUCCESS IN NORTH

CAROLINA--REPUBLICANS DID NOT DO VERY W'EUU. AND INDEED

THAT IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT.

a DID yOU DRAW ANY OTHER CONCLUSIONS FRoM

THIS GRAPH?

A THOSE ARE THE PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS WHICH I

WOULD DRAW FROM THIS GRAPH.

IIS. WiTNEN: I MOVE PLAINTIFFSI

EXHIBIT NUMBER 19 INTO EVIDENCE.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: IT WILL BE RECEIVED.

(PIAINTIFFS EXHIBIT NO. 19 WA

RECEIVED IN EVIDENCE.)

BY MS. WINNER:

a DR. GROFMAN, THE SECOND DISADVANTAGE 0R

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PBECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI,EIGH, 832.9085

GROFMAN_gB 77e.361e 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

FEATURE OF MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS WHICH YOU.MENTIONED

THIS MORNING WAS THEIR PROPENSITY TO HAVE GEOGRAPHIC

INEQUITY'OR GEOGRAPHIC NON-DISPERSAL OF REPRESENTATIVES

HAVE YOU''EXAT'IINED THAT FEATURE FOR' THE DTSTRICTS IN

QUESTION IN NORTH CAROLINA?

YES; I HAVE.

USING EXHIBITS NUMBER 3, 4, 5 AND 6 T0

ILLUSTRATE YOUR TESTIMONY, CAN YOU FIRST LOOKING AT

MECKLENBURG COUNTY TELL WHAT YOUR CONCLUSIONS ARE?

YES. FOR MECKLENBURG COUNTY, WE HAVE

PLOTTED--THAT IS, SIMpLy INDTCATED--TI|E RESIDENCES 0F

EACH OF THE INDIVIDUALS WHO WAS ELECTED TO REPRESENT

HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER 36 IN THE PERIOD 1978 TO 1982.

WE HAVE ALSO SHOWN THE--I AM SORRY--IF YOU WOULD REMOVE

THE RED SINGLE-NUMBER DISTRI.CT LINE--CAN YOU DO THAT?

YOU CANIT DO THAT? OKAY. THEN I GUESS WE WILL WORK

WITH IT.

WE HAVE ALSO INDICATED THE CITY COUNCIL

DISTRICTS IN THE CITY OF CHARLOTTE. THE CITY OF

CHARLOTTE, OF COURSE, IS ONE OF THE FOUR MAJOR CITIES

IN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN THE COUNTIES WITH WHICH WE

ARE DEALING THE LARGEST--AND CERTAINLY ONE OF THE FOUR

LARGE ST .

WE HAVE DONE THIS IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO

PROVIDE VI SUALLY DI STR I CTS I.JHI CH ARE KNOWN TO BE EQUAL

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

POPULATION--THAT IS TO SAY, THE DISTRICTS WHICH ARE

THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS.-IN THE CITY OF CHARLOTTE.

SO WE CAN THEN LOOK AT THE LOCATIONS OF WHERE MEMBERS

OF THE HOUSE DISTRICT 36 RESIDE AND COMPARE THAT WITH

WHAT WE KNOW TO BE EQUAL POPULOUS DISTRICTS WITHTN THE

C ITY OF CHARLOTTE.

. WHEN WE DO THIS, THERE WERE A TOTAL NUMBER

OF 24 ELECTED MEMBERS FROM HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER 36

IN THE YEARS 1978 TO 1982. I THINK IT MIGHT BE USEFUL

FOR ME TO GO TO THE MAP TO DEMONSTRATE THIS POINT.

ItrF WE LOOK AT THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS,

THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS ON THIS MAP ARE SHOI,JN IN

EITHER ORANGE OR RED. THE GRAY IS THE CITY BOUNDARY

OF THE CITY OF CHARLOTTE.

L I TTLE

L I TTLE

BE CAUSE

IT IS A

BUT LET

LINES AS

JUDGE PHILLIPS: COULD YOU STAND A

FURTHER TO THE SIDE? JUDGE BRITT IS HAVING A

DIFFICULTY.

THE WI.TNESS : . YES. UNFORTUNATELY,

THIS MAP SHOWS A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FEATURES,

LITTLE BIT HARDER TO READ THAN ONE MIGHT HOPE.

ME.JUST TRACE FOR YOU THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT

THEY EXIST.

HERE, FOR EXAMPLE, WE HAVE A DISTRICT WHICH

BEGINS HERE AND THEN RUNS THE GRAY LINE, WHICH WOULD BE

THE CITY BOUNDARY, LIKE THAT, LIKE THAT, LIKE THAT,

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. l ArN oFFtcE, RAtEtcH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.157t
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

LIKE THAT, DOI^/N, DOWN, AND DOWN To THERE (TNoICATING).

HERE WE HAVE ANOTHER ONE WHICH RUNS HERE, HERE2 AGAIN

COMES IN THIS CASE OVER THE GRAY LINE--IT SHOULD BE

LIKE THAT--AND ARoUND AND So oN (TNoIcATTNc). wE HAVE

ANOTHER ONE WHICH WOULD RUN LIKE THISTTANOTHER'ONE WHIC

WOULD RUN LIKE..THAT AND ANOTHER ONE'.WHI.CH WOULD *O','

LIKE.THIS.(TNOICATTNe). .:I HAVE NoT SKETCHED ALL oF

THEM IN. THERE ARE A TOTAL OF SEVEN CITY COUNCIL

DI STRI CTS.

WHAT IS PARTICULARLY RELEVANT HERE IS THAT

THREE OF THESE DISTRICTS--DISTRICTS NUMBER 1---

MR. LEONARD: (TruTCNPOSING) Tr rNC

COURT PLEASE, I AM GOING TO OBJECT TO THIS TESTIMONY

ON THE GROUNDS THAT IT IS NOT RELEVANT. I CANIT FOR

THE LIFE OF ME SEE WHAT THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS HAS

TO DO WITH THE LEGISLATIVE DiSTRICTS. I FURTHER OBL'ECT

THAT THERE IS NO FOUNDATION BEING LAID FOR THIS TESTI-

MONY

JUDGE PHILLIPS: WELL, WHAT DO YOU SAY

TO THAT? WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE---

MS. W INNER : (INf,ERPoSING) THE

RELEVANCE IS TO SHOW THAT I^/HEN MEII1BERS ARE ELECTED FROM

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS, NONE OF THEM END UP LIVING TII.

THE BLACK COMMUNITY. AND NOT ONLY DO NONE OF THEM END

UP LIVING IN ANY PART OF THE CITY IN WHICH BLACK PEOPLE

F P. O. lor at6
lJ f.laetr ib.lt c.rdti. trail

GROFMAN-1OO



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENtX, ARtZot\IA

LIVE, BUT ALSO THEY ARE VERY GEOGRAPHICALLY CONCEN_

TRATED, WHICH PROFESSOR GROFMAN HAS TESTIFIED EARLIER

HAS THE PROPENSITY THAT MEANS THAT THEY-.IT MAKES THEM

DIFFICULT FOR PEOPLE TO RELATE TO.

I BELIEVE HE TESTIFIED THE STUDY SHOWS THAT

YOU WERE MORE LIKELY TO RELATE TO A REPRESENTATIVE THAT

LIVES SOMEWHERE NEAR WHERE YOU LIVE.

MR. LEONARD: I F THE COURT PLEASE , TF

I MIGHT JUST BE HEARD, EXHIBIT 4(A)--A GINGLES EXHIBIT.

IS A MAP WITH AN OVERLAY WHICH SHOWS WHERE THE REPRE-.

SENTATIVES LIVE. WE HAVEN'T OBJECTED TO THAT. I DONIT

KNOW WHAT ALL THIS TESTIMONY ABOUT THE CITY COUNCIL HAS

TO DO WITH THIS CASE=-AT LEAST NOT ON ThIT POINT.

MS. WINNER: I DIDNIT REALIZE THAT

THAT WAS THE NATURE OF THE OBJECTION. THE REASON WE

PUT THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS ON THERE IS THAT THE

CITy couNcIL DISTRICTS ARE KNOWN TO BE OF EQUAL POPULA-

TION SIZE. AND THEREFORE{ YOU CAN SEE WHAT PROPORTION

OF THE DISTRICT--OF THE PEOPLE, THE REPRESENTATIVES--

LIVE; ITT IWHAT PROPORTION OF THE AREA, SINCE POPULATION

ISNIT EVENLY GEOGRAPHICALLY DISTRIBUTED. IT JUST GIVES

YOU A REFERENCE POINT FOR THE ANALYSIS.

.JUDGE PHI LLIPS: IT DISPELS ANY ASSUMP-

TION THAT THOUGH THE BLACKS ARE HEAVILY CONCENTRATED

IN THE BLUE AREAS THAT THE GREAT MASS OF THE POPULATION

A t. O. Ls l.las
lJ i.aaeif, a.o.ti C.rogr l,!tt

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIx, ARIzo\IA

IS IN THE NON-BLUE AREAS.

MS. WINNER:

JUDGE PHI LLI PS:

THE WITNESS:

THAT I S CORRECT.

WE WILL ADMIT IT.

I F WE LOOK AT THE THREE

OF THE SEVEN CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS WHICH ARE EITHER

MAJORITY BLACK POPULATION OR WHICH HAVE SUBSTANTIAL

PROPORTIONS OF BLACK POPULATION--THAT IS BASICALLY

GOING TO BE THIS ONE--I AM SORRY. THAT WOULD BE THIS

ONE HERE AND ALSO THIS ONE HERE AND ALSO THIS ONE HERE

(TNoICATING).

JUDGE PHILLIPS: I MUST SAY THAT ALTHOUG

WE HAVE ADMITTED IT, I DON'T KNOW WHAT SORT OF RECORD

I S BE I NG MADE OF THI'S TESTi[MONY'.'''" IT' T S NUMOST"'.'

IMPOSSIBLE TO TRANSPOSE THIS ORAL TESTIMONY IN ANY

FORM WHICH IN A WRITTEN RECORD WILL MAKE ANY SENSE TO

ANYONE. AND WE ARE SUBJECT TO REVIEW.

THE WITNESS: OKAY. I WILL INDEED

ATTEMPT IN MY ORAL PRESENTATION TO MAKE EXPLICIT THOSE

FEATURES OF THE MAP WHICH ARE SALIENT SO THAT THE

APPROPRIATE WRITTEN RECORD CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

.JUDGE BRI TT : DO YOU HAVE COUNCIL

DISTRICTS THERE NUMBERED OR NAMED IN ANY WAY? THE

IMPORTANCE IS TO TIE WHAT YOU ARE REFERRING TO THERE TO

THE RECORD.

THE WITNESS: YES. UNFORTUNATELY,o
F P, O. Oox 2alas
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GROTMAN -I02



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCBIBING, INC.

GROFMAN-10]

MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THE NUMBERS ARE NOT SHOWN ON THIS MAP.

MS. WINNER: ALTHOUGH THE NUMBERS AR

NOT SHOWN ON THE MAP, IN THE ORAL TESTII,IONY I WILL BE

VERY CAREFUL TO MAKE EXPLICIT WHICH COUNCIL DISTRICT

NUMBERS HE IS TALKING ABOUT AND HOW MANY--AT LEAST,

WHICH CITY COUNCIL NUMBERS ARE THE NUMBERS IN WHICH---

MS. WINNER: (rxrrnposrNG) wrLr,

WE WILL RECEIVE THIS EVIDENCE SUBLIECT TO THAT BEING

TIED UP. BUT I AM FRANK TO SAY IT SEEMS TO ME ON THE

MARGIN OF RELEVANCE TO THE POINT WHICH I MUST SAY IT

SEEMS PRETTY EVIDENT WITHOUT GETTING INTO THE CITY

COUNCIL WITH RESPECT TO CONFINING TO THE SENATE AND

HOUSE DISTRICTS, THE PEOPLE WHO ARE BEINb ELECTED OR

THE WHITES WHO ARE BEING ELECTED DO NOT LIVE IN THE

BLACK AREAS.

YES, S IR.MS. WINNER:

BY MS. WINNER:

a DR. GROFMAN, IF

STAND AND GIVE THE NUMERIC

REACHED ?

.YOU WOULD RETURN TO THE

CONCLUSIONS WHICH YOU

CERTAINLY. THE COUNCIL DISTRICT NUMBERS

WHICH I AM GOING TO GIVE ARE THE NUMBERS USED BY THE

CITY COUNCIL ITSELF. SO THEY THEREFORE CORRESPOND TO

AVAI LABLE MAPS.

IN COUNCIL DISTRICTS 1 THROUGH 3, I,IHICH ARE

A t. O, lor 2alas
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THE THREE COUNCIL DISTRICTS WHICH ENCOMPASS THE BLACK

AND SUBSTANTIALLY BLACK PORTIONS OF THE CITY, OF THE

24 ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES NONE LIVE IN ANY OF THOSE

DISTRICTS. AND FURTHERMORE, REPRESENTATION--ELECTED

R EPRES ENTAT I ON- - I S CONCENTRAT ED .

L1 ouT oF

a

COUNTY ?

A

a

REPORT THE

FOR EXAMPLE, COUNCiIiL DISTRICT NUMBER 6 HAS

THE 24 TOTAL NUMBER OF ELECTED REPRESENTATI

DID YOU DO THE SAME ANALYSIS IN FORSYTH

YES.

USING PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT 5(A), COULD YOU

RESULTS OF YOUR ANALYSIS IN FORSYTH COUNTY?

WHILE WE WILL PUT THE MAP UP, I WILL NOT GOA

TO THE MAP BUT MERELY RELATE THE NUMERICAL DATA. AGAIN

WE HAVE THE DISTRICTS CORRESPONDING TO THE LABELING

GIVEN TO THOSE DISTRICTS BY THE BOARD OF ALDERMEN FOR

W INSTON-SALEM,

IN THE BOARD OE ALDERMEN, THERE ARE EIGHT

ELECTED MEMBERS OF WHICH OVER THE YEAR PERIODS WE ARE

TALKING ABOUT 27 REPRESENTATIVES WERE ELECTED. AND OF

THOSE, IN THE BLACK OR MIXED AREAS--WHICH ARE THE

SOUTHEAST DISTRICT, THE EAST DISTRICT, THE NORTHEAST

DISTRICT AND THE NORTH DISTRICT; DISTRICTS INCLUDING

HALF THE POPULATION OF THE CITY OF WINSTON-SALEM--OF

THE 2I MEMBERS ELECTED, TWO OF THE 2L RESIDE IN ANY OF

F l. O. td tlal
]J i.ba!,I taodt C..otri. 2rart

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. i ArN oFFtCE, RArEtcH, 832.908s

779-3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

FOUR DISTRICTS WHICH ENCOMPASS HALF THE POPULATION OF

THE CITY OF WINSTON-SALEM; WHEREAS, REPRESENTATIoN IS,

IN FACT, CONCENTRATED IN OTHER WARDS OF THE CITY OF

WINSTON-SALEM AND IN THE PARTICULAR IN THE WEST WARD.

..JUDGE PHI LLI PS: IS THAT DESIGNATED

IIWESTII ON ANYTHING THAT IS IN THIS RECORD OR THAT IS PR

POSED TO BE PUT IN THE RECORD?

MS. WINNER: NO, SIR--ALTHOUGH WE

cAN SAy TDESIGNATED,il IF yOU WOULD LIKE.

JUDGE PHI LLI PS: THIS IS AN EXTREMELY

COMPLICATED MATTER. AND IT SEEMS TO ME THAT EVERYONE

WOULD BE WELL SERVED BY TRYING TO MAKE A RECORD THAT

IS NOT CONFUSED FURTHER BY DIFFICULTIES IN INTERPRETING

THIS ORAL TESTIMONY RELATING TO THESE EXHIBITS. I AM

FRANK TO SAY THAT WHEN SOMEONE READS OR WHEN WE READ

LATER THIS REFERENCE TO WESTERN AND EASTERN PRECINCTS

OR DIVISIONS, IT IS LO'*N TO BE MEANINGLESS.

MS. WINNER: I CAN DURING THE NEXT

RECESS ATTEMPT TO MARK THE MAPS WITH THOSE DESIGNATIONS.

IN ADDITION, I FEEL LIKE I NEED TO POINT THAT THE SMALL

REPRODUCTIONS OF THE MAPS DO NOT HAVE THESE LITTLE CITY

COUNCIL DISTRICTS ON THEM AT ALL BECAUSE IT WAS

IMPOSSIBLE TO REDUCE THEM IN A WAY THAT SOMEONE COULD

READ AT ALL.

JUDGE PHI LL I PS : wELL, CAN YoU CONTINUE

F t. O. k 2l1.g
lJ nd.|l,r taorur c.rct! rratt

GROFMAN-iO5



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PRECISION BEPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.1571

PI'IOENIX, ARIZONA

YOUR EXAMINATION FOREGOING AI'.IY FURTHER REFERENCE TO

THESE CITY COUNCIL LINES UNTIL WE GET THESE EXHIBITS

MARKED SO THAT THEY CAN BE UNDERSTOOD?

I.,1S. WINNER: I THINK THAT WITHOUT

BEING SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH DISTRICTS, THE IMPORT OF THE

TESTIMONY IS THE NUMBER OF THE REPRESENTATIVES THAT

LIVE IN--HOW MANY OF THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS THAT

HAVE---

JUDGE pHI LLI pS: (trureRposING) WeUt, I F

YOU CAN PHRASE YOUR QUESTIONS SO yOU DON'T GET YOUR

WITNESS TO TRY TO DESCRIBE THESE DISIRICTS BY .

REFERENCES THAT ARE SIMPLY NOT HELPFUL AT ALL, I DON'T

DENY THAT YOU MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE WHAT HE TESTIFIES TO

AND WHAT EXHIBITS ARE IN THE RECORD RELATE TO ONE

ANOTHER. BUT I AM SIMPLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WAY YOU

ARE GOING THAT IS NOT HAPPENING.

MS. WINNER: I WILL ATTEMPT TO DO

THAT.

BY MS. WINNER:

A PROFESSOR GROFMAN, HOW MANY ELECTED REPRE-

SENTATIVES ARE THERE FROM HOUSE DISTRICT 39 FOR THE

THREE ELECTION YEARS IN QUESTION?

a

SENATE ?

THERE ARE 2L.

DOES THAT INCLUDE BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE

F P. O. ld lltlls
lJ i.lhrL raor$ C.rdtm mll

GROFMAN-i O6



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A I BELIEVE THAT IS SIMPLY THE HOUSE. LET

ME DOUBLE CHECK. THAT INCLUDES BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE

SENATE.

A HOW MANY CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS ARE THERE

IN THE CITY OF WINSTON-SALEM?

A THERE ARE EIGHT.

)I A OF THE 2I REPRESENTATIVES, DID ALL OF THEM

LIVE IN THE CITY OF WINSTON_SALEM?

A ALL BUT FOUR.

a oF THE 20 THAT LrVED---

A (tnrenposrNG) 17.

a EXCUSE ME. OF THE 17-:HOW MANY OF THE CITY

COUNCIL DISTRICTS HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL BLACK POPULATION

IN THEM?

A FOUR.

a WHAT PROPORTTON OF THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT

IS THAT?

A HALF.

a AND HOW I.4ANY OF THE 17 REPRESENTATIVES LIVE

IN THAT HALF OF THE CITY?

A TWO.

A AND HOW MANY OF THE 17 REPRESENTATIVES LIVE

IN THE OTHER HALF OF THE CITY?

A 15.

A IS THERE ANY PARTICULAR DISTRICT THAT

F 2. O. !q ttC.
lJ tur.|{ar ,ao,irr C.ro{rd e?arr

GROFMAN-107



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571
PHOENIX. ARIZONA

CONTAINS MORE THAN THE OTHER DISTRICTS?

A YES.

A WHICH DISTRICT IS THAT?

A THERE IS A DISTRICT LABELED THE WEST DISTRICT

WHICH HAS EIGHT OF THE 17 OR ROUGHLY HALF.

a AND WHAT PROPORTION OF THE CrTy rS THAT?

A ONE-EIGHTH.

A THANK YOU. MOVING ON TO DURHAM COUNTY AND

REFERRING TO PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT NUMBER 6(A), HOW MANY

ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES--HOW IvIANY ELECTED MEMBERS ARE

THERE FROM DURHAM COUNTY DURING THE THREE ELECTION

YEARS IN QUESTION?

A 15.

A DOES THAT INCLUDE BOTH HOUSE MEMBERS AND

S ENATORS ?

A YES.

a oF THOSE 15, HOW MANY OF THEM LIVE WITHIN THE

CITY OF DURHAM?

A 11.

A IS THE CITY OF DURHAM DIVIDED INTO CITY

COUNCIL DISTRICTS?

A YES; IT IS.

A HOW MANY CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS IS IT DIVIDE

INTO?

A SIX.

F P, O. 8or 1|.laJ
Ll e.ugh. tao6 crrclo ,rctr

GROFMAN_1 O8



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PI-OENIX, ARIZONA

a AND HOW MANY OF THOSE CITY COUNCIL DIS-

TRICTS HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BLACK POPULATION?

A ONE.

A HOW MANY REPRESENTATIVES LIVE WITHIN THAT

AREA?

A ZERO.

A IS THERE ONE OR MORE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS

THAT CONTAIN ; A MAJORITY OF THE REPRESENTATIVES?

A YES. THERE IS ONE CITY COUNCIL DISTRiICT,

DISTRICT NUMBER 4, WHICH CONTAINS NINE OUT OF THE 11

REPRESENTATIVES WHO LIVE WITHIN THE CITY.

a ano WHAT PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION OF THE

CITY IS THAT?

A THAT WOULD BE ONE-SIXTH.

A AND WHAT PROPORTION OF THE REPRESENTATIVES

I S THAT?

A NINE OUT OF 11--81 PERCENT, APPROXIMATELY.

.JUDGE PHILLIPS: ARE THESE CITY COUNCIL

DISTRICTS ROUGHLY EQUAL IN POPULATION?

THE WITNESS: YES; THEY ARE.

BY MS. WINNER:

a MovING ON TO WAKE COUNTY--YOUR HONOR, MAY I

LOOK AT THE MAP WHILE CONDUCTING THE EXAMINATION?

JUDGE PHILLIPS: YOU MAY.

BY MS. WINNER:o
- 

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lJ i.blelt. Honh crorm 27ctr GROFMAN. I O 9



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A HOW MANY CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS ARE THERE

WITHIN THE CITY OF RALEIGH?

A THERE ARE FIVE.

A AND HOW MANY ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES WERE

THERE FROM WAKE COUNTY DURING THE THREE ELECTORAL YEARS

IN QUESTION?

A 26.

A DOES THIS INCLUDE BOTH SENATORS AND REPRE-

SENTATIVES?

A YES. I BELIEVE IT--YES. IT DOES.

a How MANY oF THOSE 26 LrVE 
.WTTHIN 

THE CrTy OF

RALE I GH ?

A 22.

A AND HOW MANY OF THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICTS

HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL BLACK POPULATION?

A ONE.

A HOW MANY OF THE MEMBERS LIVE WITHIN THAT

DISTRICT?

A ZERO.

A WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION OF THE

CITY OF RALEIGH IS THAT?

A ONE-FI FTH.

A IS THERE A CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT IN RALEIGH

WHICH CONTAINS A BULK OF THE REPRESENTATIVES ELECTED

FROM RALEIGH?

s P. O. lor 2tlag
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GROFMAN- 1 1 O



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX. ARIZONA

A YES; THERE IS.

A WHICH CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT IS THAT?

A THAT IS THE CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT WHICH IS

LABELED IIE.IT AND IT HAS 17 OUT OF THE 22 REPRESENTA_

TIVES },,HO LIVE IN THE CITY, OR 77 PERCENT OF THE

REPRESENTATIVES.

A AND WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION OF THE

CITY OF RALEIGH LIVES WITHIN THAT DISTRICT?

A APPROXIMATELY 20 PERCENT.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: LETIS TAKE A RECESS

UNTI L 3:30 .

(Tne PRocEEDING wAs RECESSED AT 3:L5 P.M., T

RECONVENE AT 3:30 p.M., THIi SAME DAY.)

F P. O. Aq ntaC
lJ R.atcr. Lorot c..oir ,ratr

.GROFMAN-111



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TMNSCRIBING, INC. lfArN oFFtcE, RAIEIGH, 832.e085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

F U R T H E R P R O C E E D I N G S ]:]O P.M.

(WHEREUPOI.I,

BERNARD N. GROFMAN

THE WITNESS ON THE STAND AT THE TIME OF RECESS, RESUMED

THE STAND AND TESTIFIED FURTHER AS FOLLOWS:)

DIRECT EXAMINATION 3i3O P.M.
(RESUMED)

BY MS. WINNER:

A DR. GROFMAN, ANOTHER FACTOR AT YOU MENTIONED AS

ONE OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS IS

THAT THEY ARE--THAT THEY INCREASE THE COST OF CAMPAIGNING.

HAVE YOU HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO EXAMINE THAT IN NORTH

CAROL I NA ?

A YES; I HAVE.

a How DID YOU DO THAT?

A I DID THAT BY LOOKING AT CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS

IN CITIES WHICH FOR THE CITY- COUNCIL HAVE BOTH AN AT LARGE

OR MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT COMPONENT OF THEIR CITY COUNCIL

AND WHO ALSO HAVE A WARD OR SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICT COMPO.

NENT OF THEIR CITY COUNCIL.

A WHICH CITIES WERE THOSE?

A THAT WOULD BE CHARLOTTE AND RALEIGH.

A DO YOU HAVE BEFORE YOU PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT

NUMtsER 20?

F P, O. lor 
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

(PLAiNTIFFSI EXHIBIT NO. 20 WAS

MARKED FOR IDENTIFICATION. )

A YES.

A DOES THAT CONTAIN A SUMMARY OF YOUR FINDINGS

CONCERNING THE COST OF CAMPAIGNING?

A YES.

.JUDGE PHI LLIPS: IT WOULD BE HELPFUL WHEN YOU

REFER TO THESE IF YOU COULD GIVE US SOME DIRECTION AS TO

WHERE WE MIGHT FIND THEM.

MS. WINNER: ALL THE REST OF THE EXHIBITS

ARE IN THE NOTEBOOK, HOPET'ULLY IN NUMERICAL ORDER.

JUDGE BRITT: WELL, YOU HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB

OF IT.

THE WITNESS: I AM SORRY. COULD YOU REPEAT

THE QUESTION?

BY M5. WIl.lNER:

a WHAT DID YOU CONCLUDE ABOUT THE COST OF CAM-

PAIGNING IN THESE TWO CITIES-AS SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS AS

COMPARED TO A MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT?

A IT WOULD ROUGHLY-.ALMOST EXACTLY TWICE AS

EXPENSIVE TO CAMPAIGN--SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGNS--IN MULTI.

MEMBER DISTRICTS AS IT WAS IN SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS. A

THAT IS TRUE FOR BOTH CITIES. THE DATA I LOOKED AT WAS

FOR TWO ELECTION YEARS, t979 AND 1981'IN BOTH THE CITIES.

A DID YOU ALSO MAKE A COMPARISON OF MINORITY

F P. O. !q 2.l('
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

ELECTORAL SUCCESS IN THOSE TWO CITIES?

YES; I DID.

AND WHAT WAS THE RESULT OF THAT COMPARISON?

THE RESULT OF THAT COMPARISON WAS THAT IN BOTH

CITIES BLACK ELECTORAL SUCCESS WAS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER

IN THE SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICT OR WARD COMPONENT OF THE

CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS THAN IN THE AT..LARGE OR MULTI-

MEMBER COMPONENTS OF THE CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS.

FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE pERIOD tg77 TO 1981, OF THE

2I DISTRICT SEATS CONTESTED IN THE CITY OF' CHARLOTTE,

BLACKS I^ION SIX--THAT IS TO SAY, 28.6 PERCENT, WHILE OF THE

12 AT LARGE SEATS CONTESTED, BLACKS WON ONLY TWO OR 16.7

PERCENT, DESPITE THE FACT THAT THERE WERE MORE BLACK

CANDIDATES FOR THE AT LARGE SEATS THAN FOR THE SEVEN

DI STRICT SEATS.

IT IS ALSO THE CASE THAT IF WE LOOK BACK PREVIOU

TO THE PERIOD IN WHICH THE CITY OF CHARLOTTE HAD A MIXED

SYSTEM INVOLVING BOTH WARDS AND AT LARGE ELECTIONS, IN THE

PRECEDING PERIOD 45 TO 75 UNDER A PURE AT LARGE SYSTEM.-

THAT IS A PURE MULTI-MEMBEi{ DISTRICT SYSTEM--BLACK

REPRESENTATION AVERAGED ONLY 5.4 PERCENT OVER THAT PERIOD.

AND WHAT WERE THE RESULTS YOU FOUND IN RALEIGH?

SIMILAR RESULTS IN RALEIGH. OF THE 15 DISTRICT

sEATS CONTESTED IN RALEIGH IN t77 TO rBl pERIOD, BLACKS

I^,ON THR.EE--THAT IS, 2O PERCE,'{T, IiHILE OF THE SIX AT LARGE

F t. O. lor 2'laa
lJ R.hrrh, xodrr ct.o{n ?Glt

GROFMAN-I14



SEATS CONTESTED, BLACKS VJON NO SEATS-.TI.:AT I S TO SAY,

ZERO PERCENT. AND ACAII.I DESPITE T}iE FAC'T THAT THTY WF:RE

PROPORTIONATELY ABO!IT AJ MANY BLACK CANDIDATES.CONTESTING

THE AT LARGE ELECTIONS AS CONTESTING THE DISTRICT ELECTION

I MIGHT NOTE THAT THIS GENERAL FINDING OF GREATE
i

MINORITY SUCCESS IN A DISTRICT SYSTEM OR A DISTRICT BASED

COMPONENT OF A MIXED SYSTEM IS ONE OF THE BEST SUBSTANTIAT

FINDINGS IN THE POLITICAL SCIENCE LITERATURE.

MS. WINNER:

EXHIBIT NUMBER 20.

I MOVE INTO EVIDENCE PLAINTIFF

JUDGE PHiLLIPS: WE WILL RECEIVE IT.

(PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT NO. 20 WAS RECEIVED

IN EVIDENCE. )

BY MS. WINNER:

A DR. GROFMAN, HAVE YOU HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO

COMPARE THE SIZE OF THE MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT QUESTION IN

THiS CASE TO MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS IN OTHER STATES?

YES; I HAVE.

a WHAT DID YOU COMPARE THESE MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICT

WITH?

A USING DATA WHICH I OBTAINED FROM THE LIBRARY OF

CONGRESS, I LOOKED AT THE FIVE STATES WHICH HAD THE LARGES

AVERAGE SIZE OF DISTRICT.-THAT IS TO SAY STATES WHICH USE

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS AND WHICH HAD BY AVERAGE VERY LARGE

MULTI-MEMBER DI STRICTS.

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONAF P. O, lor ltlEs
lJ trblen, r&r$ c.rorh ,r!tt

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.157.1

PHOENIX. ARIZONA

A

NUMBER OF

WHEN YOU SAY THE SIZE, YOU MEAN THE NUMBER?

I MEAN THE NUMBER OF SEATS IN A DISTRICT--THE

REPRESENTATIVES BEING ELECTED.

A DID YOU DO THIS SEPARATELY FOR THE HOUSE AND FOR

THE SENATE?

YES; I DID.

WHAT WAS THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF HOUSE SEATS IN

THE FIVE LARGEST STATES?

A IN THE FIVE STATES WHICH HAD THE LARGEST AVERAGE

NUMBER OF REPRESENTATIVES IN A DISTRICT, THE AVERAGE SIZE

OF THE D I STR I CTS WAS 3.55 .

WHAT DOES THAT LEAD YOU TO CONCLUDE ABOUT THE

SIZE OF THE DISTRICTS IN NORTH CAROLINA?

THE DISTRICTS IN NORTH CAROLINA WHICH ARE AT

ISSUE ARE OF SIZES FOUR, FIVE AND SIX AND EIGHT. ALL OF

THEM ARE LARGER THAN THE AVERAGE SIZE OF DISTRICTS IN THOSE

STATES WHICH HAVE THE LARGEST..FIVE STATES WHICH HAD THE

LARGEST DISTRICTS OF AVERAGE=AND SIZE.

NOW, WHICH OF THE FOUR DISTRICTS IN NORTH

CAROLINA ARE WHAT YOU JUST REFERRED TO?

A THE FOUR D I STR I CTS I N NORTH CAROLI NA I,/H I CH I

REFERRED TO WERE THE DISTRICT FROM WAKE, WHICH IS A SIX.

MEMBER DISTRICT; THE DISTRICT FROM MECKLENBERG, WHICH IS

AN EIGHT-MEMBER DISTRICT; THE DISTRICT FROM FORSYTH, I^/HICH

IS A FIVE-MEMBER DISTRICTT I THINK I MAY HAVE MISSPOKE

F i. O. !q l.lct
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PBECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIEING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

BECAUSE THE E i GI.tT--THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN.--

A (INTERPOSING) ANO WHAT IS THE SIZE OF THE

WI LSON.EDCOMBE-NASH D I STR ICT.

A THE WILSON.EDGECOMBE-NASH DISTRICT IS THE FOUR-

MEMBER DISTRICT IN QUESTION.

A DID YOU ALSO DO THAT COMPARISON FOR THE SENATE?

A YES. FOR THE SENATE I AGAIN LOOKED AT THE FIVE

STATES WHICH IN 1980 HAD THE LARGEST AVERAGE NUMBER OF

REPRESENTATIVES IN THEIR SENATE DISTRICTS.

A WHAT WAS THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF SENATORS PER

DISTRICT IN THOSE STATES THAT HAD THE HIGHEST AVERAGES?

A 2.87 WAS THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF REPRESENTATIVES

PER DISTRICT IN THE FIVE STATES WHICH HAD ON AN AVERAGE

THE LARGEST NUMBER OF REPRESENTATIVES PER DISTRICT.

A AND HOW DOES THAT COMPARE TO THE MECKLENBERG-

CABARRUS ?

A THE MECKLENBERG-CABARRUS SENATE DISTRICT HAS

FOUR MEMBERS AND I S LARGER THEREFORE THAN THE AVERAGE

DISTRICT SIZE IN THE FIVE STATES WHICH WERE LARGEST.

A DR. GROFMAN, HAVE YOU ALSO CONSIDERED THE NORTH

CAROLINA SENATE DISTRICT NUMBER TWO?

A YES; I HAVE.

A DO YOU HAVE BEFORE YOU PLAINTIFFST EXHIBIT

NUMBER 1O ?

(PLEASE TURN PAGE.)

F t, O. !.r 2ltct
lJ h.l..eh, ,.oni c..oh ?6rr

GROFMAN _LI7



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

(PLAINTIFFS' EXHIBIT NO. 1O I.JAS

MARKED FOR IDENTIFiCATION. )

A YES; I DO. YES. I NoW HAVE BEFORE ME

PLAINTI FFS I EXHI BI T NUMBER 10.

A WHAT IS PLAINTIFFS' EXHIBIT NUMBER 10.-THE BASE

MAP?

A PLAINTIFFSI EXHIBIT NUMBER. 1O HAS AS ITS BASE

MAP THE EXISTING SENATE DISTRICT NUMBER TWO WITH AREAS OF

THAT DISTRICT WHICH ARE 5O TO 65 PERCENT BLACK POPULATION

AS SHOWN IN LIGHT BLUE, AND AREAS WHICH ARE 65 PERCENT.-

AND OVER--IN BLACK POPULATION SHOWN IN DARK BLUE. THE

GOLD LINE INDICATES THE BOUNDARY OF THAT PRESENT DISTRICT.

MS. WINI.|ER: AT THIS POINT I WOULD LIKE TO

POINT OUT AN ERROR TO THE COURT: ON THE SMALL MAP, THE

KEY SHOWED THAT THE DISTRICT BOUNDARY LINE IS IN RED, WHERE

IN FACT ON THE MAP THE DISTRICT BOUNDARY LINE IS QUITE

OBVIOUSLY YELLOW. 
.

BY MS. WINNER:

A WHAT IS THE BLACK PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION

FOR SENATE D I STR I CT NUMBER TI^/O ?

A THE PRESENT BLACK SENATE DISTRICT NUMBER TWO HAS

A 55.1 PERCENT BLACK POPULATION.

A WHAT IS THE NUMBER OF REGISTERED VOTERS--WHAT IS

THE PERCENTAGE OF REGISTERED VOTERS FOR BLACK SENATE

DISTRICT NUMBER TWO?

F ,. O. &r 2ltCS
lJ khtc|t t{orrh c.realo 2rurt

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PRECISION REPORTING
ANO TRANSCRIBING, INC. M.AIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A 46.2 PERCENT.

A DO YOU HAVE ANY PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE IN DETER-

MINING WHAT THE POPUI.ATION--WHAT KIND OF MI}{ORITY

POPUL.ATION THERE NEEDS TO BE FOR A DISTRICT TO BE

CONSIDERED A MINORITY DISTRICT?

A YES. THIS WAS THE SPECIFIC TASK OR ONE OF THE

SPECIFIC TASKS WI-IICH I WAS ENTRUSTED BY THE SPECIAL MASTER

IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK WORKING WITH THE SOUTHERN DISTRIC

COURT IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK.

A WHAT FACTORS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN DETERMINING

A MINORITY DISTRICT?

A THE MINORITY AGE POPULATION, WHICH IS THE VOTING

AGE POPUL.ATION RELATIVE TO THAT OF THE WHITE COMMUNITY

EXCEPT THE PROPORTION OF MINORITIES WHO ARE ELIGIBLE

CITIZENS LESS RELATIVE HERE IN NORTH CAROLINA THAN IN NEW

YORK WHERE THERE WERE HISPANICS. THE PROPORTION OF

MINORITY REGISTRATION AND THE PROPORTION OF MINORITY TURN-

OUT AGAIN RELATIVE TO THAT OF.WHITES.

A DO YOU CONSIDER SENATE DISTRICT NUMBER TWO TO BE

A MA.JOR I TY BLACK D I STR I CT ?

A NO.

a WHAT IS THE OVERLAY TO PLAINTIFFST EXHIBiT 10(A)

A THE OVERLAY PROVIDES AN ILLUSTRATIVE ALTERNATIVE

SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICT TO THAT WHICH NOW EXISTS IN SENATE

DISTRICT NUMBER TWO.

F ,. O. lox 28tal
lJ i.|.!0r, laoii C.6llm arlrr

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THAT POSSIBLE SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICT HAS A

BLACK POPULATION OF 60.7 PERCENT.

A AIID WHAT ARE THE PERCENT OF REGISTERED VOTERS

IN THAT.-BLACK REGISTERED VOTERS IN THAT HYPOTHETICAL

DISTRICT?

51.02 PERCENT.

A CC,ULD YOU DEFINE FoR THE COURT WHAT YoU MEAN WHE

YOU SAY WHETHER OR NOT SOMETHING IS A MINORITY DISTRICT?

A YES. THE RELEVANT JUDGMENT THAT I AM MAKING IS

WHETHER OR NOT IN AN ELECTION THERE WOULD BE A REASONABLE

LIKELIHOOD THAT AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MINORITY VOTERS WOULD

BE PARTICIPATING IN THAT ELECTION AS COMPARED TO THE

NUMBER OF WHITE VOTERS PARTICIPATING IN THAT ELECTION.

SO I AM LOOKING AT THE REGISTRATION DATA IN

PARTICULAR AS A KEY TO WHETHER OR NOT THE DISTRICT WOULD BE

A MA.JORITY DISTRICT, ASSUMING EVEN THAT WHITE AND BLACK

PARTICIPATIoN AND ,,**o,i WAS IDENTICAL.

IS THE-.DO YOU CONSIDER THE DISTRICT INDICATED

ON THE OVERLAY OF EXHIBIT NUMBER 10 TO BE A MINORITY

DISTRICT?

A BARELY. IT IS INDEED A DISTRICT WITH-.WHICH I

WOULD REGARD AS A MINORITY DISTRICT. BUT EVEN AT THAT

PERCENTAGE, IT WOULD STILL REMAIN IN MY VIEW A COMPETITIVE

DISTRICT.

HI,VE YOU CONS I DERED THE EXTENT OF RAC IAL

A l. O.0or 2tr{tr
lJ F.bloh. Ndh Crffi aTrit

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCR]BING, INC. M.qtN oFFtcE, RALE|GH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.457t
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

POLARIZATION OF THE VOTING IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE

CURRENT SENATE DISTRICT NUMBEF. TWO?

A YES, I HAVE, IN SOME BUT NOT ALL OF THE COUNTIES

IN QUESTIOI.t.

A WHAT ELECTIONS DID YOU ANALYZE?

A I ANALYZED THE 1982 ELECTION INVOLVING HOUSE

DISTRICT NUMBER FIVE, AND I ANALYZED THAT ELECTION WITH

RESPECT TO HERTFORD, GATES, BERTIE AND PARTS OF NORTH-

AMPTON COUNTiES INCLUDED IN THAT DISTRICT.

I ALSO ANALYZED THE 1982 HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER

SEVEN RACE IN HALIFAX COUNTY

A WHO WERE THE CANDIDATES IN THE HOUSE DISTRICT

NUMBER FIVE RACE?

A HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER FIVE--THE CANDIDATES IN TH

PRIMARY WERE CREESY (PHONETIC), WHICH WAS A BLACK CANDI-

DATE, AND BROWN, WHO WAS NOT.

a AND THIS IS T;; PRIMARY?

A THIS IS THE PRIMARY. IN THE GENERAL ELECTION

THE CANDIDATES WERE CREESY, WHO IS A BLACK CANDIDATE, AND

MCINTYRE, WHO IS A WHITE.

a V,/HAT DiD YOU CONCLUDE FROM YOUR ANALYSIS OF THE

PR I MARY ?

A I CONCLUDED THAT THERE WAS RACIAL POLARIZATION

IN THE PRIMARY IN THE COUNTIES WHICH I LOOKED AT.

A AND WHAT DID YOU CONCLUDE FROM YOUR ANALYSIS OF

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t. O. 8.r Etd

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 A76.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THE GENERAL ELECTION IN THAT RACE?

A I CONCLUDED THAT A PORTION OF WHITE DEMOCRATS--

A PORTION OF DE|4OCRATS--ALMOST CERTAINLY WHI TE DEMOCRATS--

DEFECTED FROM THE BLACK DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IN ORDER TO

VOTE FOR THE WHITE REPUBLICAN.

JUDGE DUPREE: WHO WON?

THE WITNESS: THE BLACK DEMOCRAT WON.

BY MS. WINNER:

A ARE THE\' ALSO COUNTIES WHICH ARE PREDOMINATELY

BLACK? IS THIS A PREDOMINATELY BLACK DISTRICT?

A I WOULD HAVE TO DOUBLE CHECK ALL OF THE NUMBERS.

BUT QUICKLY LOOKING AT THE MAP, THESE ARE INDEED HEAVILY

BLACK VOTING DISTRICTS.

MS. WINNER: I BELIEVE THERE IS A STIPULATI

THAT CONTAINS--ALTHOUGH I CANIT RECALL THE EXACT PERCENTAGE

BUT EACH OF THESE D]STRICTS IS OVER 60 PERCENT BLACK IN

POPULAT I ON.

BY MS. WINNER:

A WHO WERE THE CANDIDATES IN YOUR ANALYSIS OF

HOUSE DISTRICT NUMBER SEVEN?

A IN THE PRIMARY THERE WAS A BLACK DEMOCRAT,

BALLANCE, AND A WHITE DEMOCRAT, HUX.

A AND WHO WON THAT ELECTION?

A BALLANCE.

A WAS THERE ALSO A CONTESTED GENERAL ELECTION?

F P. O. Bor 2tlGl
lJ Rthgh, iaonh C.EIil Azolt

GROFMAN _I22



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.36't9 876.4571
PI{OENIX, ARIZONA

A NO; THERE WAS NOT.

A WHAT DID YOUR ANALYSIS OF THE PRIMARY SHOW?

WHAT COUNTIES DID YOU ANALYZE?

A IN THAT ONLY HALiFAX.

A AND WHAT DID YOUR ANALYSIS OF THAT ELECTION SHOW?

A THAT THERE WAS CLEAR POLARIZATION--RACIAL

POL.ARIZATION.

A ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE MAJORITY VOTE REQUIRE-

MENT IN NORTH CAROLINA?

A YES; I AM.

A ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE LITERATURE ON THE

MAJOR,ITY VOTE REQUIREMENT?

A YES.

A WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF A MAJORITY VOTE REQUIRE-

MENT?

A THE GENERAL EEFECT OF A MAJORITY VOTE REQUIREMENT

IS TO MAKE IT LESS LIKELY THAT A MINORITY GROUP WITHIN A

POPULATION WILL BE ABLE TO ELECT A CANDIDATE, BECAUSE IN

A RUNOFF THE MA.JORITY GROUP WITHIN THE COMMUNITY CAN BE

ViRTUALLY CERTAIN OF ELECTING ITS MAJORITY CANDIDATE.

A DOES ELECTORAL SUCCESS AT ONE LEVEL OF GOVERN-

MENT AFFECT THE CHANCE OF ELECTORAL SUCCESS AT ANY OTHER

LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT?

A CERTAINLY. ELECTORAL SUCCESS AT LOWER LEVELS OF

GOVERNMENT PROVIDE A POOL OF EXPERIENCED CANDIDATES WHO

A P. O. Bor 1Al{S
Ll i.blgh, liodh C.roilil AIE|I

GROFMAN _123



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PRECISION BEPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. M.AIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

RUN FOR HIGHER LEVEL OFFICE. ELECTORAL SUCCESS AT LOWER\

LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT DEVELOP CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATIONS AND

INTEREST IN POLITICS I^IHICH CAN BE TRANSLATED INTO CAMPAIGN

FOR HIGHER LEVELS OF OFFICE.

AND CONVERSELY, ELECTORAL SUCCESS AT HIGH LEVELS

OF OFFICE IS IMPORTANT FOR ELECTORAL SUCCESS AT LOWER

LEVELS, BECAUSE INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE SUCCEEDED AT HIGH

LEVELS ARE OFTEN IN A POSITION TO BE ABLE TO OFFER

ASSISTANCE TO THOSE WHO ARE .]UST GETTING STARTED IN

POLITICS.

A HAVE YOU DRAWN ANY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE EFFECT

OR IMPACT OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MAJORITY VOTE REQUIREMENT?

NORTH CAROLINAIS MAJORITY VOTE REQUIREMENT, AS

WILL ANY MAJORITY VOTE REQUIREMENT OPERATED IN A SITUATION

WHERE THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL RACIAL MINORITIES AND SUB-

STANTIAL RACIAL POLARiZATION, ACTS TO LIMIT AND DILLUTE

THE VOTING STRENGTH OF MINORITIES.INSOFAR AS THEY OPERATE

IN THAT FASHION, IT WILL HAVE A RIPPLING EFFECT ON THE

ELECTORAL SUCCESS OF MINORITY CANDIDATES AT ALL LEVELS OF

GOVERNMENT AND IN TERMS OF MINORITY SUCCESS IN THE STATE

LEGISLATURE IN PARTICULAR.

A BA.SED ON ALL OF YOUR TESTIMONY TODAY AND ALL OF

.YOUR ANALYSES OF NORTH CAROLINA/ HAVE YOU DRAWN A GENERAL

CONCLUSION ABOUT THE OPPORTUNITY OF BLACK PEOPLE.-BLACK

CITIZENS TO ELECT REPRESENTATIVES OF THEIR CHOICE AS

F P. O.8d 2tril
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4s71

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

COMPARED TO THE OPPOR]'UNITY OF WHITE CITIZENS TO ELECT

REPRFSENTATIVES OF THEIR CHOICE?

YES; I HAVE.

l^rHAT ARE THOS E CONC LUS I ONS ?

THERE ARE A NUMBER--LET ME INDICATE A NUMBER.

FIRST, LOOKING AT THE BODY OF EViDENCE WHICH I HAVE

REVIEWED, INCLUDING EVIDENCE FROM SOME 53 ELECTIONS PLUS

ADDITIONAL DATA ON GEOGRAPHIC REPRESENTATION, CAMPAIGN

COSTS, CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF

DATA FROM OTHER STATES AND SO ON, iF ONE LOOKS AT NORTH

CAROLINA, IT SEEMS TO ME QUITE CLEAR GIVEN THE PATTERNS OF

POLARTZAT ION AND THE NEED FOR BLACK CANDIDATES--BLACK

VOTERS TO CONCENTRATE THEIR VOTE IF THEY WANT TO HAVE ANY

OPPORTUNITY TO ELECT A CANDIDATE OF THEIR CHOICE, AND THE

FACT THAT BLACKS IN A MINORITY AND ARE SUBMERGED IN THE

DISTRICTS IN QUESTION, THAT THE FATE OF BLACK CANDIDATES

IS PRIMARILY IN THE HANDS OF WHITE VOTERS, BUT NOT

CONVER SE LY.

WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY 'INOT CONVERSELYII?

I MEAN THAT WHICH BLACK CANDIDATE, IF ANY--WHICH

BLACK CANDIDATE, IF ANY, WILL BE ELECTED WILL BE DETERMINED

PRIMARILY BI' THE VOTES OF WHITE VOTERS; WHEREAS, BLACK

VOTERS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPACT ON WHICH WHITE

CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATES WILL BE SELECTED.

DID YOT! DRAW ANY FURTHER CONCLUSIONS?

A P. O. Bor 2tlB
LJ R.Lioh, Ndh C.orin. a70tr

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

YES. THERE ARE MANY WHITE VOTERS WHO WILL NOT

VOTE FOR ANY BLACK CANDIDATE. BUT THERE ARE RELATIVELY

FEW BLACKS WHO WILL NOT VOTE FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE. SO

THAT POLARIZATION IN NORTH CAROLINA IS ONE-SIDED. BLACKS

WILL VOTE FOR WHITE CANDIDATES TO A MUCH GREATER EXTENT

THAN WHITES ARE WILLING TO VOTE FOR BLACKS. INDEED, A

LARGE SEGMENT OF THE NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS-.WHITE VOTERS--

ARE UNWTLLING TO VOTE FOR BLACK CANDIDATES.

A DID YOU DRAW ANY FURTHER CONCLUSIONS?

A THERE IS NO REASON IN MY VIEW TO BELIEVE THAT

THE 1982 BLACK ELECTORAL SUCCESS, IN PARTICULAR FORSYTH,

BUT ALSO IN MECKLENBERG, WILL REPEAT ITSELF IN FUTURE

YEARS.

AS I PREVIOUSLY INDICATED IN TESTIMONY, THERE

ARE MANY SPECIAL IDIOSYNCRATIC REASONS WHY BLACKS WERE

NEWLY ELECTED IN A NON-COVERED COUNTY DISTRICT THAT WE

ARE DEALING WITH IN 1982.

1984, UNLIKE 1982r,-WILL BE A YEAR OF HIGHER

WHITE TURNOUT, I WILL ANTICIPATE, AND A YEAR OF HTGHER

REPUBLICAN TURNOUT. BOTH FACTORS WHICH GIVEN THE EXISTING

PATTERSN OF RACIAL POLARIZATION IN THIS STATE, AND IN

PARTiCULAR THE DISTRICTS LOOKED AT, WILL MAKE IT HARDER

FOR BLACKS TO BE ELECTED.

a

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DID YOU DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE LIKELIHOO

TO REPEAT ITSELF IN THOSE AREAS WHICH DID NOT

- 
t O. Bor ltlc!

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

ELECT BLACK REPRESENTATIVES?

A IN THOSE AREAS WHERE BLACKS WERE NOT ELECTED,

THE EXISTING PATTERNS OF RACIAL POLARIZATION GIVES ONE

NO REASON TO EXPECT ANY GREATER BLACK ELECTORAL SUCCESS

THAN THE BLACK ELECTORAL FAILURE THAT OCCURRED IN TgB2.

I HAVE ONE LAST CONCLUSION, AND THAT IS THAT.-

IF I MAY?

a YES.

A MY FINAL CONCLUSION IS THAT WHAT THE JUSTICE

DEPARTMENT RECOGNIZED AS TRUE FOR THE COVERED COUNTIES-.

THAT A RELIANCE ON COUNTY LINES NECESSARILY SUBMERGES

MINORITY VOTING STRENGTH, IS EQUALLY TRUE FOR THE NON-

COVERED COUNTIES IN THE DISTRICTS WITH WHICH WE ARE

DEALING, GIVEN THE EXISTING BLACK VOTER CONCENTRATIONS AND

PATTERNS OF POLARIZED VOTING.

I WOULD ALSO NOTE THE ONLY MAJORITY BLACK

DISTRICTS AP.E IN DIVIOEO COUruTIES CREATED AT LEAST IN PART

BY THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT WIIH THE INSISTENCE THAT MULTI.

MEMBER DISTRICTS SUBMERGE THE BLACK VOTES AND THAT COUNTIE

I'JOULD NEED TO BE SUBDIVIDED IF THAT SUBMERGENCE I^/AS To BE

REMEDIED.

MS. WINNER: I MOVE THE ADMISSION OF

PLAINTIFFST EXHIBITS NUMBERS 4 THROUGH 10.

\,UDGE PHILLIPS: THEY WILL BE RECEIVED.

(PLEASE TURN PAGE.)

H P. O. lor ,!tit
LJ R.|lcl\ raqrh C.roalm ,rCil

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(PLAINTIFFSI EXH.IBITS NOS.4 THRU

10 WERE RECEIVED IN EVIDENCE.)

MS. WINNER: T HAVE NO FURTHER qUESTIONS.

PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

GROFMAN_129 77e.361e 876.1s7r
PHOENIX, ARIZONAF P. O. Eo. r!l83

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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TBANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.a571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

FURTHER PROCEEDINGS 3:36 P. M.

CROSS EXAMINATION 3:56 P.M.

BY MR. LEONARD:

DR. GROFMAN, I WOULD LIKE TO CALL YOUR ATTENTION

TO GINGLES EXHIBIT 19. IF YOU WOULD, LOOK AT THAT, PLEASE.

IT IS A CHART YOU PREPARED WITH RESPECT TO THE PARTICIPATION

OF CANDIDATES IN GENERAL ELECTIONS AND.THE BOTTOM HALF

RELATES TO SUCCESS IN GENERAL ELECTIONS.

YES. I HAVE THAT CHART BEFORE ME.

DO I UNDERSTAND THE CHART TO SHOW THAT BETWEEN

1970 AND 1982 THAT THERE WERE 27 BLACKS--BLACK DEMOCRATS--

WHO SOUGHT ELECTION TO WHATEVER THE CHART IS SUPPOSED TO

COVER ?

A THAT IS CORRECT.

a rHE BOTTOM 
'O*' 

SHOWS THAT OF THE 27 WHO RAN NINE

A THAT IS CORRECT.

a DoES THAT MEAN THAT i8 WON?

A THAT IS CORRECT

A IF MY ARITHMETIC IS CORRECT, THAT TELLS US THAT

TWO.THIRDS OF THE BLACKS WHO SOUGHT OFFICE AND RAN ONCE--

IS THAT RlGHT?

A NO. THE CORRECT READING IS THAT TWO_THIRDS OF

F t. O. eor 2tlc3
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PREC]SION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, AR!ZONA

THE BLACKS WHO SUCCEEDED

A GENERAL ELECTION.

IN WINNING A PRIMARY AND WON IN

a

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TO GENERAL

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TH IRDS OF

SO THAT IT RELATES ONLY TO

THAT IS CORRECT. THE TITLE

ELECTIONS.

GENERAL ELECT ION ?

THE CHART I S

THE

OF

BUT THE REPUBLICANS WERE NOT ABLE TO DEFEAT TWO-

THE BLACK CANDIDATES !(HO RAN; IS THAT THE IDEA?

THAT I S CORRECT.

WHY DID YOU CHOOSE TO GO BACK TO 1970 WHEN YOUR

ANALYSIS OF ELECTIONS WENT ONLY BACK TO 178?

. A FOR PURPOSES OF PARTICIPATION..AND SUCCESS AS

OPPOSED TO RACIAL POLARiZATION WHERE I BELIEVE MOST RECENT

DATA MAY IN FACT BE MOST RELEVANT DATA, AT LEAST OVER THE

LAST SIX YEARS, lT SEEMED APPROPRIATE TO LOOK AT THE DECADE-

LONG OR MORE THAN DECADE-LONG HISTORY OF BLACK ELECTORAL

SUCCESS IN THiS STATE. THAT IS BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT THE

PATTERN OF BLACK ELECTORAL SUCCESS IN PARTICULAR DISTRICTS,

YOU WILL SEE THAT SOMETIMES BLACKS WIN AND THEN THERE ARE

PERIODS WHERE BLACKS LOSE. AND THERE ARE PERIODS WHERE

BLACKS WIN. SO THAT THOUGH THERE WERE VERY FEW BLACKS

ELECTED IN THE EARLY PERIOD, THERE WERE ONCE BLACKS ELECTED

IN AREAS OF THESE DISTRICTS WHERE THERE ARE NOT NOW BLACKS

TO BE FOUND.

AND THEREFORE, ONE MAY SUGGEST THAT THE EXISTENCE

OF BLACKS NOW IN DISTRICTS IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THERE WILL

A

F P. O. Bd 2ll8
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TBANSGRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

IN THE FUTURE BE BLACKS REPRESENTING THESE SAME DISTRICTS.

19, TO WHAT EXTENTA AGAIN REFERRING TO EXHIBIT

OR DEGREE IN YOUR OPINION IS THE LOSS

CANS TRACED TO RACIAL POLARIZATION?

OF ALL BLACK REPUBLI-

I^JITHOUT A FURTHER ANALYSI S THAN I HAVE GIVEN, I

CANNOT COMMENT ON THAT. THE-_*

(INTERPOSING) I THANK YOU. REFERRING TO EXHIBIT

11, APPENDIX 6--WOULD you PULL THAT OUT?

I AM SORRY; EXHIBIT---

ll, APPENDIX 6.

YES; UH-HUH.

I BELIEVE IN YOUR TESTIMONY YOU SAID THAT WITH

RESPECT TO THE.;STATE OF MISSISSIPPI THAT THE FACT THAT

MISSISSIPPI SWITCHED FROM MULTI-MEMBER TO SINGLE MEMBER

DISTRICTS THAT THE SUCCESS OF THAT AS SHOWN BY THE INCREASE

IN THE NUMBER OF BLACK MEMBERS FROM JULY'77, WHICH IS 4,

TO JULY OF tg82, WHICH rS rZ, THE EVIDENCE CONTINUED BECAUSE

IN 198] 17 BLACKS WERE AGAIN ELECTED? DID YOU SAY THAT?

YES; I DID. I DID.

WHEN WERE THE MISSISSIPPI ELECTIONS HELD IN 1982?

I BELIEVE--AND I MAY BE IN ERROR--THAT THE DATA

IN QUESTION IS I82 DATA AND DATA PRIOR TO 1982. THIS IS A

REPORT OF THE NUMBER OF BLACK REPRESENTATIVES IN JULY 1982.

THAT WOULD CLEARLY BE AN ELECTION THAT TOOK PLACE PRIOR TO

1982, JUST AS THE 1983 DATA CLEARLY REPORTS AN ELECTION THAT

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PHECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

TOOK PLACE IN 1982.

A DR. GROFMAN, I AM NOT COMPETENT TO TESTIFY HERE,

BUT I ALSO HAPPEN TO BE COUNSEL OF THE MISSISSIPPI LEGIS-

LATURE. AND I THINK YOU OUGHT TO LOOK AND DETERMINE WHEN

THOSE ELECTIONS WERE HELD AND LET US KNOW IF YOU WOULD LIKE

TO CORRECT THAT EXHIBIT.

MS. WINNER: I OBJECT TO COUNSEL LECTURING THE

tIITNESS.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: I wILL NoTE YoUR oBJECTIoN.

BY MR. LEONARD:

A WILL YOU CHECK THAT DATA FOR US? WILL YOU CHECK

THE DATA, DR. GROFMAN?

A I CAN DO THAT; YES.

a IN youR EXHTBTT NUMBER t2 AT PAGE 6___

A (INTERPOSING) YES. I HAVE IT HERE.

A THAT IS YOUR OUTLINE THAT YOU PREPARED FOR AN

ANALYSIS OF RACIAL BLACK.VOTING AND THE METHODOLOGY AND THE

LIKE THAT YOU WENT THROUGH IN THIS CASE; IS THAT CORRECT?

A THAT IS CORRECT.

a oN PAGE 6 rN FOOTNOTE 5 yOU STATE, AND r QUOTE:

't. .TO THOSE WITH STATISTICAL TRAINING, THIS'r--

AND THIS REFERS TO A FORMULA THAT YOU HAVE USED IN THE BODY

OF THE REPORT,

II. .MAY SEEM TRIVIALLY OBVIOUS, BUT IT tS A

POINT WHICH FEDERAL COURTS HAVE FAILED TO FULLY

F P. O. lor 2at6
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RATEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

GRASP.II AND THEN YOU CITE MCMI LLAN V. ESCAMBIA

COUNT Y FLORIDA AND A DECISION OUT OF THE CIRCUIT COURT OF

APPEALS; IS THAT RIGHT?

A YES; THAT IS CORRECT.

A HAVE YOU EVER READ THAT DECISION?

A I HAVE READ PORTIONS OF IT; YES.

A VJELL, IN THE DECISION THAT YOU REFER TO, DO YOU

RECALL THAT THE COURT SAID THIS AT PAGE 966:

'I. .THE COURT FOUND THAT IN EACH OF THE RACES

IN WHICH A BLACK CANDIDATE RAN FOR COUNTY

COMMISSIONER THE VOTING HAD BEEN SEVERELY

POLARIZED ALONG RACIAL LINES. IN OTHER WORDS,

WHENEVER A BLACK CHALLENGES A WHITE FOR COUNTY

WIDE EFFECT, A CONSISTENT MAJORITY OF THE WHITES

WHO VOTE WILL CONSISTENTLY VOTE FOR THE BLACKIS

OPPONENT. II

AND THEN IN THE FOOTNOTE IN THAT DECISION THE

couRT REFERS TO 638 FED.2D, AND SPECIFICALLY ON PAGE 124L.

DO YOU HAVE ANY RECOLLECTION OF THE REFERENCE IN THE

DECISION YOU CITE TO THE FOOTNOTE IN THE EARLIER CASE?

ANALYS I S

. I BELIEVE SO; YES.

ALL RIGHT. LET ME READ A PART OF THAT FOOTNOTE:

'" . ELECT I ON RETURN AND REGRESS I ON STAT I ST I CS

WERE ANALYZEDII--AND THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT THE

THAT WAS DONE DURING THE TRIAL OF THE CASE--

F P. O. ldr 2alls
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

I'. .BY POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. THE ANALYSIS

FOCUSED UPON VOTING RETURNS FROM PRECINCTS WHICH

WERE 95 PERCENT OR MORE OF ONE RACE. THESE

RETURNS COMBINED I,/ITH REGRESSION STATI STICS ON

ALL PRECINCTS SHOWED THAT WHENEVER A BLACK

CHALLENGES A WHITE FOR COUNTYWIDE OFFICE, A

SIGNIFICANT MAJORITY OF THE WHITES WHO VOTE WILL

CONSISTENTLY VOTE FOR THE BLACKTS OPPONENT.

SIXTY PERCENT OR MORE OF THE WHITES WILL DO SO

IN MOST CASES.II

NOW, IN LIGHT OF YOUR POSITION AND THAT LANGUAGE,

IS IT YOUR OPINIONI THAT THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN YOUR

OPINION AND YOUR TESTIMONY IN THIS COURT TODAY AND WHAT THAT

COURT FOUND IN THE MCMILLAN CASE?

NO. THERE IS NO DISAGREEMENT.

a IN OTHER WORDS, WOULD YOU ADOPT WHAT THE COURT

FOUND IN THE MCMILLAN CASE?

I WOULD ADOPT THE V I.EW THAT I T I S APPROPR I ATE

TO LOOK AS INDEED I HAVE REPEATEDLY TESTIFIED AT THE PROPOR-

TION OF WHITE VOTERS WHO VOTE FOR BLACK CANDIDATES, AND THAT

IT IS IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT THE PROPORTION OF THE TOTAL VOTE

CAST BY WHITES FOR BLACK CANDIDATES.

WELL, DR. GROFMAN, YOUR NOTE INDICATES YOU HAVE

SOME DISAGREEMENT, AND I THINK IF YOU WILL BEAR WITH ME THAT

THE LANGUAGE FROM THAT FOOTNOTE IS SIGNIFICANT--IS INDEED

F P. O.8d 2tttl
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

THE LANGUAGE WHICH SAYS:

II. .A SIGNIFICANT MA.JORITY OF THE WHITES WHO

VOTE WILL CONSISTENTLY VOTE FOR THE BLACKIS

OPPONENT. II

MY QUESTION SPECIFICALLY IS: DO YOU OR DO YOU

NOT ADOPT OR AGREE WITH THAT LANGUAGE AS BEING A DEFINITION

OF RACIAL POLARIZATION IN ELECTIONS AND IN VOTING?

IN A SINGLE MEMBER DiSTRICT, A BLACK HAS NORMALLY

A SINGLE OPPONENT IF THERE IS INDEED A BLACK CANDIDATE AND

A WHiTE CANDIDATE IN A RACE. WHEN ONE IS DEALING WITH

MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS WHERE INDIVIDUALS HAVE MORE THAN ONE

VOTE, IF IS NECESSARY TO MODIFY THE APPROPRIATE ANALYSES TO

TAKE THAT FACT INTO ACCOUNT.

DOES THAT MEAN THAT YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH

THE OPINION OF THE COURT IN THE MCMILLAN CASE?

I WOULD AGREE THAT IN SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS

ONE CLEAR DEMONSTRATION, THOUGH NOT A NECESSARY BUT CERTAINL

A SUFFICIENT CONDITION FOR THERE TO BE RACIALLY POLARIZED

VOTING--NOT NECESSARY BUT SUFFICIENT--WOULD BE A SITUATION

IN I,JHICH A CLEAR MA.JORITY OF WHITES VOTED FOR THE WHITE

CAI.JD I DATE .'

NOW, IF ONE WISHES TO LOOK AT THE ONLY SINGLE

MEMBER DISTRICT ELECTIONS WHICH WE HAD ANALYZED, NAMELY

THOSE WHICH TAKE PLACE IN EDGECOMBE, WILSON AND NASH, IF I

MAY CALL YOUR ATTENTION TO APPENDIX ] TO EXHIBIT 11, WHICHo
A P. O. gor iarc!
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAI.EIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.1571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

WOULD BE THE LAST TWO PAGES OF APPENDIX ] TO EXHIBIT 11;

LOOKING AT THAT DATA WHICH IS DATA ON SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICT

AT LEAST FOR THE CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY AND FOR THE HEAVY

SPLIT CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY, WE FIND THAT IF WE LOOK AT THE

COLUMN THAT IS NEXT TO LAST, THE PROPORTION OF THE VOTES

CAST BY WHITE VOTERS WHICH GO TO THE BLACK CANDIDATE_-IN THI

CASE THE BLACK CANDIDATES--THE COMPLEMENT OF THAT--THAT IS

TO SAY, ONE MINUS THAT NUMBER, IS OF THE PROPORTION OF

WHITES WHO DO NOT VOTE FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE.

THE COMPLEMENT--THE NUMBERS SHOWN--WERE THE

SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICT ELECTIONS IN EDGECOMBE ARE O.O2--THAT

IS 2 PERCENT, AND .02 FOR THE SECOND CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY.

THAT IS ALSO 2 PERCENT.

IN THESE SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICT ELECTIONS, 98

PERCENT OF THE WHITES DID NOT VOTE FOR THE BLACK CANDIDATE.

THE SAME IS TRUE IF WE LOOK AT WILSON WHERE 93 PERCENT OF

THE WHITES DID NOT VOTE;;* THE BLACK CANDIDATE IN THE

FIRST CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY IN 182 AND THE SECOND CON-

GRESSIONAL PRIMARY IN '82--THAT IS THE MICHAUX-VALENTINE

CONTEST. THE SAME IS TRUE WHEN WE LOOK ON THE NEXT PAGE AT

THE POLARIZATION AS EVIDENCED IN THE COLUMN NEXT TO THE LAST

FOR THOSE TWO PRIMARY ELECTIONS IN NASH COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN,

IN THIS CASE,93 PERCENT OF WHITE VOTERS DID NOT VOTE FOR

THE BLACK CANDIDATE IN THE FIRST CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY AND

94 PERCENT OF THE WHITE VOTERS DID NOT VOTE FOR THE BLACK

F P. O. Aor 2ltas
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, tNC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571
PI.IOENIX, ARIZONA

CANDIDATE IN THE SECOND CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY.

THESE ARE THE SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS WHICH I HAD

ANALYZED AND THE ONLY DATA WHICH IS DIRECTLY COMPARABLE TO

THE ANALYSIS WHICH THE COURT IN MCMILLAN IS PROVIDING, AS

I INDICATED.

A TELL ME, DOCTOR, HOW DOES WHAT YOU JUST SAID

RELATE TO THE FACTS IN THE ESCAMBIA COUNTY COURT?

MS. WINNER: IF COUNSEL IS GOING TO QUIZ DR.

GROFMAN ON THE FACTS OF THE CASE, I WOULD APPRECIATE HIM

SHOWING DR. GROFMAN A COPY OF THE DECISION.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: MR. LEONARD, I WOULD HAVE TO

AGREE THAT I AM HAVING A LITTLE DIFFICULTY FOCUSING IN ON

EXACTLY WHAT IT IS YOU ARE TRYING TO ELICIT FROM THE WITNESS

ON CROSS-EXAMINATION.

MR. LEONARD: WELL, IF THE COURT PLEASE, THE

FOOTNOTE TO THIS REPORT PREPARED BY THIS WITNESS SAYS:

,'. .IT APPEARS TO ME TO BE CRITICAL OF THE

DECISION IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY.II

I READ FROM PAGE 966 OF THE DECISION WHICH DOES

GIVE A BRIEF RESUME OF THE FACTS, AND I AM TRYING TO DETER-

MINE IF THIS WITNESS AGREES OR DISAGREES WITH THE CIRCUIT

COURTIS VIEW AS TO WHAT CONSTITUTES RACIAL POLARIZATION IN

VOTING. THAT IS THE FIRST STEP.

WHETHER HE DOES OR HE DOESNIT, HE HAS CITED THE

CASE AND HE APPARENTLY HAS SOME IDEA AND HAS SOME CRITICAL

F P. O,3or illGs
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PRECISlON REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. AAAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

OBJECTION TO THE COURTIS FINDING OR THE COURTIS APPLICATIO

OF THE RACIAL BLACK VOTING STANDARD IN THE CASE. AND I

WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHAT IT IS.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: WELL---

MR. LEONARD: (INTERPOSING) IT IS A SIMPLE

QUESTION. I ASKED HIM, IF THE COURT PLEASE--I STRESSED--I

SAID THE COURT SAID

," .A SIGNIFICANT MAJORITY OF THE WHITES I{HO

r VOTE WILL CONSISTENTLY VOTE FOR THE BLACKIS

OPPONENT. II

sAID, rrDO YoU AGREE WITH THAT OR DONrT YOU

AGREE WITH IT?II AND I GOT A TWO OR THRET ON FIVE-M.INUTE

DISSERTATION ABOUT HEAD TO HEAD SINGLE DISTRICT VOTING FROM

HIS STATISTICS.

NOW, ESCAMBIA COUNTY DOESNIT HAVE ANYTHING TO DO

WITH SINGLE MEMBER DISTRI:TS.

.JUDGE PHI LLIPS: WELL, DO YOU WANT TO PURSUE

YOUR QUESTION FURTHER WITH HIM,ON THIS POINT?

MR. LEONARD: YES, SIR; I DO.

.JUDGE PHILLIPS: WELL, WHAT IS YOUR NEXT

QUESTION, THEN?

BY MR. LEONARD:

A MY QUESTION WAS I BELIEVE, DR. GROFMAN--THE ONE

THAT IS PENDING--WAS HOW YOU RELATE THE TESTIMONY THAT YOU

GAVE TO THE LAST QUESTION I ASKED TO THE FACTS IN THE

F P. O. Bq 2altt
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.36\9 876.1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

MCMI LLAN V. ESqAUEIA COUt'lTy_, FLOp.IDA CASE.

MS. WINNER: AT THI S

MY OBJECTION; IF HE IS GOING TO QUIZ

FACTS OF THE CASE, THAT HE SHOW HIM A

POINT I WOULD RENEW

DR. GROFMAN ON THE

COPY OF THE OPINION

BY MR. LEONARD:

DR. GROFMAN, I AM NOT TRYING

ESCAMBIA COUNTY WAS A CHALLENGE TO THE

OF THE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS.

THAT; YOU HAVE CITED THE CASE.

TO TRAP YOU.

AT LARGE ELECTIONS

I ASSUME YOU KNOW

NOW, HOW DOES YOUR TESTIMONY OF THE LAST FEW

MINUTES ABOUT THE MICHAUX RACE AND THE SINGLE MEMBER

DISTRICTS THAT YOU MENTIONED RELATE TO THE FACTS IN THE

MCMI LLAN CASE?

A I CANNOT WITHOUT FAMILIARITY--WITHOUT THE

MCMILLAN V. ESCAMBIA COUNTY OPINION IN FRONT OF ME_-IT IS

SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO RESPOND TO THAT QUESTION. I WOULD CALL

YOUR ATTENTION TO THE FACT THAT THE FOOTNOTE TO WHICH YOU

REFER TO, WHICH iS FOOTNOTE 5 ON PAGE 6 OF EXHIBIT 12, IN

TURN REFERS TO A FOOTNOTE IN MCMILLAN V. ESCAMBIA COUNTY

WHICH, IS THE ONLY PIECE OF MCMILLAN V. ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN

WHICH I APPEAR TO BE TAKING EXCEPTION.

HOWEVER, I DO NOT HAVE THE ENT I RE MC}4I LIAN V .

ESCAMBIA CASE IN FRONT OF ME. I HAVE INDICATED THAT I HAVE

NOT FULLY READ MCMILLAN V. ESCAMBIA AND I CANNOT RESPOND TO

YOUR QUESTION.

Ft P. O. Aor 2!lG!
lJ hd.rsh, xonh c.rc{[ 223il



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PBECISION REPOBTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876-1571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

MR. LEONARD: IF THE COURT PLEASE, I THINK

AMONG THE EXHIBITS WHICH WE WERE SUPPOSED TO SUPPLY TO THE

COURT WITH COPIES OF THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT AND THE EXTENSION

OF THAT ACT AND THE REPORT--MAY I APPROACH THE BENCH?

THESE HAVE BEEN STIPULATED TO. THEY ARE PUBLIC

RECORDS FROM THE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES.

MS. WINNER: FOR THE RECORD, I DONIT RECALL

HAVING STIPULATED TO THESE DOCUMENTS. BUT I CERTAINLY HAVE

NO OBJECTION TO THE COURT CONSIDERING THEM.

(DOCUMENTS HANDED UP TO BENCH. )

. BY MR. LEONARD:

a Do You HAVE A COpy OF THAT REPORT, DR. GROFMAN?

A NO; I DO NOT.

MR. LEONARD: MAY I APPROACH THE WITNESS,

YOUR HONOR?

JUDGE PHILLIPS: YoU MAY.

BY MR. LEONARD:

a DR. GROFMAN, I HAND__YOU WHAT PURPORTS TO BE A

REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY OF THE UNITED

STATES SENATE AND REPORT TOGETHER WITH SUPPLEMENTAL AND

DISSENTING VIEWS OF THE COMMITTEE ON JUDICIARY OF THE HOUSE

OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE t'NITED STATES CONGRESS, AND I ASK

YOU IF YOU HAVE EVER SEEN THOSE DOCUMENTS BEFORE?

A I HAVE.

A HAVE YOU MADE A STUDY OF THOSE DOCUMENTS?

F P. O. Oor 2!tct
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PRECISTON REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING. INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.457l|
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A I HAVE NOT MADE A FULL STUDY OF TI-IOSE DOCUMENTS:

I HAVE CITED PORTIONS OF THOSE DOCUMENTS.

A HAVE YOU MADE A STUDY OF THE PROVISIONS OF EITHER

OF THOSE DOCUMENTS THAT RELATE TO THE DEFINITION OF RACIAL

POLARIZATION IN VOTING?

A I AM NOT FAMILIAR WITH THE APPROPRIATE PAGES IN

EITHER OF THESE DOCUMENTS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A DEFINITION

OF RACIAL POLARIZATION. COULD YOU CALL MY ATTENTION TO

THOSE PAGES ?

A I THINK MY QUESTION WAS--I WILL BE HAPPY TO DO

THAT IN A MINUTE. I THINK MY QUESTION WAS DID YOU MAKE A

STUDY OF EITHER OF THOSE TWO DOCUMENTS I HANDED YOU WITH

RESPECT TO THE QUESTION OF A DEFINITION OF RACIAL POLAR-

IZATIOI.I IN VOTING?

A NO. TO THE BEST OF MY KNOWLEDGE--I AM NOT

FAMILIAR WITH ANY SUCH DIFINITION IN THESE DOCUMENTS, THOUGH

THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT THERE ISNIT ONE THERE.

A WITH RESPECT TO YOUR TESTIMONY TODAY ON YOUR VIEW

OF WHAT CONSTITUTES RACIAL POLARIZATION IN VOTING OR I

BELIEVE RACIAL BLOC VOTING--AND I BELIEVE YOUR TESTIMONY IS

THAT YOU USED THOSE TWO TERMS SYNONOMOUSLY?

A THAT IS CORRECT.

A IF I UNDERSTAND THAT DEFINITION AS YOU HAVE USED

IT--PLEASE CORRECT ME IF I AM \^'RONG. IF THE WHITE POPULA-

TION IN A PARTICULAR ELECTION DISTRICT DOES NOT VOTE FOR OR

F P. O. 8or 2alGt
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779-3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

SUPPORT BLACK CANDIDATES

BLACK POPULATION OF THAT

BLACK CANDIDATES, THEN IT

RACIAL BLOC VOTING OR RAC

IS THAT CORRECT?

IN THE SAME PERCENTAGE THAT THE

ELECTION DISTRICT SUPPORTS THE

IS YOUR OPINION THAT THERE IS

IAL POLARIZATION IN THAT ELECTION;

THAT I S CORRECT.

A NOW, WITH RESPECT TO THAT DEFINiTION, DO YOU

QUANTIFY AT ALL-_DO YOU FIND THAT THERE IS IN SOME ELECTIONS

SOME RACIAL BLOC VOTING IN OTHER ELECTIONS A SIGNIFICANT

AMOUNT OF RACIAL BLOC VOTING OR DO YOU QUANTIFY IT IN SOME

OTHER WAY?

A THERE ARE TWO WAYS TO DISTINGUISH AMONG LEVELS

OF RACIAL BLOCH VOTING FOR THE ABSENCE OR PRESENCE OF

RACIAL BLOC VOTING. THE FIRST QUESTION IS IS THERE RACiAL

BLOC VOTING? THE ANSWER TO THAT IS BASED ON THE RELATiON_

SHIP BETWEEN THE RACE OF VOTERS AND THEiR VOTES. IF THERE

IS A CONSISTENT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RACE OF THE VOTER AND

THE WAY IN WHICH THE VOTER VOJES, THEN THERE IS INDEED

RACIAL POLARIZATION.

HAVING ESTABLISHED THAT INITiAL FACT, ONE MAY

THEN ASK IS THE OBSERVED RACIAL POLARIZATION AT A LEVEL

WHICH IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT? IN ANSWERING THAT

QUESTTON, ONE MAY LoOK AT THE CORRELATION COEFFTCTENTS. ON

MAY LOOK AT IN PARTICULAR THE LEVEL OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFI_

CANCE OF THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT.

F P. O. Bor 18163
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RAIEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

I HAVE PREVIOUSLY TESTIFIED THAT I HAVE DONE S

FOR EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THE 53 ELECTIONS I HAVE EXAMINED

AND HAVE FOUND EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THEM TO BE STATISTICALL

SIGNIFICANT.

a WHEN you sAY nSTATISTICALLy SIGNIFICANTil---

A (INTERPOSING) I AM SORRY. I HAVE NOT FINISHED

MY ANSWEP..

a co AHEAD.

A ONE MAY ALSO WISH TO CONSIDER ''WHETHER OR NOT

THERE IS SUBSTANTIVELY MA.JOR IMPORTANT SUBSTANTIVELY

SIGNIFICANT RACIAL POLARIZAT ION.II THERE IS NO CONSENSUS

AS TO WHAT SUCH A TERM WOULD MEAN, THOUGH AS I HAVE

TESTIFIED, IN MY VIEW A SITUATION IN WHICH A MA.JORITY OF

THE WHITE VOTERS ARE UNWILLING TO VOTE FOR ANY BLACK CAN-

DIDATE WOULD CERTAINLY CONSTITUTE SUCH SUBSTANTIVELY

S IGNIFICANT RACIAL POLARIZATION.

a You sAI D 'IQUOTE . 
I' WHAT WERE yOU QUOT I NG FROM ?

A YES. I WAS ATTEMPTING TO REPRODUCE AS CLOSELY AS

I COULD MY LANGUAGE IN MY EARLIER TESTIMONY.

A NOW, IS THERE IS DIFFERENCE IN YOUR POSITION WITH

RESPECT TO THE UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT YOU CONSIDER TO BE

RACIAL POLARIZATION IN VOTING AS I STATED IT A FEW MOMENTS

AGO AND THE TESTIMONY YOU JUST GAVE WITH RESPECT TO A

MAJORITY OF WHITES SUPPORTING A BLACK CANDIDATE?

F P. O, lor llras
LJ id.rch, taonh C.roal[ 27Crr



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A NO. IF I MAY--I AM SORRY TO HAVE TO REPEAT

MYSELF. RACIAL POLARIZATION EXISTS IF THERE ARE DIFFERENCES

IN THE VOTING PATTERNS OF BLACKS AND WHITES. STATISTICALLY

SIGNIFICANT RACIAL POLARIZATION EXISTS IF WHEN ONE OBSERVES

THE PATTERN OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VOTES OF VOTERS BY

RACE AND THE VOTING PATTERNS OF VOTERS BY RACE ONE OBTAINS

STATISTICALLY SIGNI FICANT RESULTS.

AS TO THE QUESTION OF WHAT, IF ANYTHING, IS TO BE

MEANT BY SUBSTANTIVELY SIGNIFICANT RACIAL POLARIZATION, THAT

IS A QUESTION UNLIKE THE FIRST TWO IN WHICH THERE IS DIS-

AGREEMENT AMONG SCHOLARS. MY OWN ViEW, WHICH I HAVE

PREVIOUSLY TESTIFIED TO, IS THAT IN THESE EIGHT DISTRICTS AS

A WHOLE THERE IS SUCH SUBSTANTIVE RACIAL POLARIZATION AS

EVIDENCE BY A VARIETY OF PIECES OF DATA WHICH I PREVIOUSLY

TESTIFIED TO, INCLUDING THE FACT THAT A MAJORITY OF WHITE

VOTERS HAVE REPEATEDLY DEM.ONSTRATED THEIR UNWILLINGNESS TO

VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE.

A SO THAT ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHAT

THE PERCENTAGE OF THE STATISTICAL DATA IS SUBSTANTIVELY

SIGNIFICANT, IN YOUR OPINION IF 50 PERCENT OR LESS OF THE

WHITES DO NOT SUPPORT A BLACK CANDIDATE WHEN THEY HAVE AN

OPPORTUNITY TO DO THAT, IN YOUR VIEW THAT IS SUBSTANTIVELY

SIGNIFICANT, IS THAT CORRECT?

A THAT IS INACCURATE.

A IS IT SIGNIFICANT?

F P. O. Eor ?tlcl
u i.bact} rionh C.roarm 27c:!



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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX, ARIZONA

A I CANNOT ANSWER THAT QUESTION EXACTLY AS YOU

POSED IT. ONE WOULD NEVER WISH EXCEPT WHEN--ONE WOULD NEVER

WISH ANY SITUATION TO LOOK AT A SINGLE ELECTION AND SAY IS

IN THIS ELECTION, LOOKING--TAKING THIS ELECTION DIVORCED

OF CONTEXT LOOKING FOR EXAMPLE AT ONLY A GENERAL AND NOT A

PRIMARY THAT PRECEDED IT WAS THERE SUBSTANTIVELY SIGNIFICANT

RACIAL POLARIZATION.

AS I TESTIFIED, IF ONE LOOKS AT THE ELECTIONS,

PRIMARIES AND GENERALS, IN THESE DISTRICTS, THERE IS INDEED

SUBSTANTIVELY SIGNIFICANT POLARIZATION, STATISTICALLY

SIGNIFICANT POLARIZATION AND POLARIZATION:

a AND IT IS YOUR TOTAL OVERVIEW OF LOOKING AT ALL

53 ELECTIONS THAT LEADS YOU TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THERE IS

SUBSTANTIVELY SIGNIFICANT RACIAL POLARIZATION IN THESE

ELECTIONS? IS THAT ACCURATE?

A YES, AND ALSO.WITHIN EACH COUNTY.

A IS IT STATISTICALLY APPROPRIATE WHEN YOU ARE

.JUDGING A COUNTY AS LARGE AS MECKLENBURG WITH AS MANY PEOPLE

THAT IT HAS--I BELIEVE OVER 300,000--To usE oNLY THREE

ELECTIONS TO COME TO THE CONCLUSION OF SUBSTANTIVELY

S IGNI FICANT RACIAL POLAR IZATION?

A IT IS CERTAINLY INAPPROPRIATE TO ONLY USE ONE

E LECT I ON.

I MR. LEONARD: I MOVE THAT THAT ANSWER BE

STRIKEN, IF THE COURT PLEASE. I THINK DR. GROFMAN KNOWS

a P. O. Bd 2ttl3
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TRANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571

PHOENIX. ARIZONA

WHAT MY QUESTION IS.

JUDGE PHILLIPS: I^JELL, LET ME COMPLETE HIS

ANSWER.

THE WITNESS: AND INDEED OF THE NINE

ELECTIONS I LOOKED AT IN MECKLENBURG, IT IS MY PROFESSIONAL

.JUDGMENT THAT CERTAINLY THOSE NINE ELECTIONS PROVIDE MORE

THAN ADEQUATE INFORMATION ON WHICH TO BASE A.JUDGMENT AS TO

RACIAL POLARIZATION, AND INDEED, CONSIDERABLY FEWER THAN

THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN ADEQUATE TO REACH SUCH A CONCLUSION.

BY MR. LEONARD:

a HOW MANY FEI^/ER?
i

A SIX. THAT IS TO SAY THE PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT

I REACHED IN DECIDING WHAT DATA WOULD BE NECESSARY TO GATHER

WAS FIRST, AS I HAVE SAID BEFORE, IF WE CAN FIND MORE THAN

THREE, LET IT BE A COMPLETE SET, BUT UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES

LESS THAN THREE

JUDGE PHILLIPS: WE WILL BREAK FOR THE DAY.

(rnr PROCEEDING WAS RECESSED AT 4:30 P.M., TO

RECONVENE AT 9:30 ON TUESDAY, .JULY 26, 1983.)

o
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P. O. Bor 2tl(t
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PRECISION REPORTING
AND TBANSCRIBING, INC. MAIN OFFICE, RALEIGH, 832.9085

779.3619 876.4571
PHOENIX, ARIZONA

CERTIFICATE

I, .JO B. BUSH, DO HEREBY CERTIFY THAT THE

PRECEDING PAGES REPRESENT A TRUE AND

ACCURATE TRANSCRIPT OF THE PROCEEDINGS HELD

oN MONDAY, JULY 25, 1981, AT RALEIGH, NORTH

CAROL I NA.

TH I S, THE ,OTH DAY OF .JULY , 1983 ,

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

EASTERN DISTRICT OF NORTH CAROLINA

B, BUSH, CVR

OFFICIAL REPORTER

F P. O. 8or 2tltt
IJ n nsal Nodh C@$m 2rotr