Brutal Redistricting Fight Shaping Up; Politics Shapes Weird Contours in District Lines News Clippings

    • 

IN THE 
UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS 

FOR THE FIFTH CIRCUIT 

No. 87-3463 

RONALD CHISOM, et al., • 

Plaintiffs-Appellants, 
v. • 

EDWIN EDWARDS, et al., 

Defendants-Appellees. 

AFFIDAVIT OF DR. RICHARD L. ENGSTROM 

Richard L. Engstrom, being sworn, deposes and says: 

1. I make this affidavit in support of Appellants' Motion 

for an Injunction Pending Appeals or, in the Alternative, for 

Issuance of the Mandate. 

2. I am currently Research Professor of Political Science 

at the University of New Orleans, in New Orleans, Louisiana. A 

copy of my current curriculum vitae is attached to this affidavit 

as Appendix A. 

3. I have done extensive research into the relationship 

between electoral structures and the ability of black voters to 

participate fully in the political process and to elect the 

candidates of their choice. Among my many publications are 

Engstrom & Wildgen, Pruning Thorns From the Thicket: An Empirical  

Test of the Existence of Racial Gerrymandering, 2 Legis. Stud. Q. 

465 (1977); Engstrom & McDonald, Quantitative Evidence in Vote  

Dilution Litigation: Political Participation and Polarized  



Voting, 17 Urb. Law. 369 (1985); and Engstrom, The Reincarnation 

of the Intent Standard: Federal Judges and At-Large Election 

Cases, 28 How. L.J. 495 (1985). Each of these was cited with 

approval in Thornburg V. Gingles, 478 U.S. , 92 L.Ed.2d 25 

(1986), the only Supreme Court decision interpreting amended 

section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. See, e.g., 92 L.Ed.2d at 48, 

n. 20, 50, 60. 

4. I was retained by the plaintiffs in Clark v. Edwards, 

No. 86-435-A (M.D. La.), to analyze several issues with regard to 

the opportunities of black voters in Louisiana to participate in 

the judicial elections process and to elect the candidates of 

their choice. Among other things, I was asked to examine the 

results of judicial elections in which black candidates ran to 

determine whether such elections are racially polarized, that is, 

whether there is "a correlation between the race of voters and 

the selection of certain candidates." Thornburg v. Gingles, 92 

L.Ed.2d at 61. 

5. Appellants in this case have asked me to present my 

findings with regard to the presence of racial polarization in 

judicial elections conducted within Orleans Parish. 

6. I used two complementary methods for determining 

whether voting was racially polarized--extreme case (or 

homogeneous precinct) analysis and bivariate ecological 

regression. These are the methods approved by the Supreme Court 

in Gingles. 92 L.Ed.2d at 48. A brief summary of the 

methodology is contained in Appendix B. 

2 



7. There were 27 separate contests in which Black candidates 

ran against white opponents. ( In four of those contests, 

two black candidates competed.) Regression analyses of 

these elections show that black voters cast a majority of 

their votes for the black candidates in 24 of the 27 

elections. By contrast, white voters preferred white 

candidates in all 27 contests. The estimates based on extreme 

case analysis show the same pattern: in 24 of the 27 elections 

a majority of black voters voted for black candidates, while 

in all 27 elections a majority of white voters voted for 

white candidates. The estimated racial divisions in the 

vote revealed by the regression analyses of these elections, 

along with the correlation coefficient reflecting the 

consistency with which the race of the registered voters 

in the various precincts is associated with the vote for 

the respective black candidates, are reported in Appendix 

C, Table 1 and Table 3. The estimated racial divisions 

in the vote revealed by the extreme case analyses are reported 

in Appendix C, Table 2 and Table 4. 

8. I conclude from my analysis that voting within Orleans 

Parish in judicial elections reflects racial polarization, 

as that term is defined in les. 

Sworn to and sububed 
before me this  4111`  th 
day of May 1988 

3 



APPENDIX A 



VITA 

March, 1988 

RICHARD L. ENGSTROM, Research Professor of Political Science 
University of New Orleans 

OFFICE HOME 

Department of Political Science   
University of New Orleans    
Lakefront Phone: (504) 245-3447 
New.Orleans, LA 70148 

PERSONAL AND EMPLOYMENT INFORMATION  

Born May 23, 1946. Married to former Carol L. Verheek. Four 
children: Richard Neal, born 3/10/70; Mark Andrew, born 1/14/73; 
Brad Alan, born 3/3 1/7 7; and Amy Mm, born 8/18/84. 

Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of New Orleans 
(formerly Louisiana State University in New Orleans), 1971-1974. 

Associate Professor of Political Science, University of New Orleans, 
1974-1979. 

Chairperson, Department of Political Science, University of New 
Orleans, 1976-1979. 

Professor of Political Science, University of New Orleans, 1979-
present. 

Research Professor of Political Science, 1987-present. 

Fulbright-Hays Professor, National Taiwan University and National 
Chengchi University, and Visiting Research Fellow, Institute of 
American Culture, Academic Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C., 1981-82. 

Fulbright-Hays Professor, University College, Galway, Ireland, 1985-
86. 

Recipient, UNO Alumni Association's Career Distinction Award for 
Excellence in Research, December 1985. 

FORMAL EDUCATION  

Ph.D., University of Kentucky, 1971 

M.A., University of Kentucky, 1969 

A.B., Hope College (Holland, Michigan), 1968. 
(recipient of Class of '65 Political Science Award, 1968. 



Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 
Page 2 

PRIMARY TEACHING FIELDS  

Urban Government and Politics, Black Politics, Legislative Process, 
American Politics. 

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES  

Associate Member, Centre for the Study of Irish Elections, University 
College Galway. 

Member, Board of Editors,Public Administration Quarterly. 1977-
present. 

Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Politics, 1988-present. 

Member, Board of Editors, State and Local Government Review, 1988-
1990. 

Treasurer, Southwestern Political Science Association, 1981 
(position resigned during term due to Fulbright Lectureship). 

Member, Nominating Committees, Southern Political Science 
Association, 1980; Louisiana Political Science Association, 1981. 

Member, Chastain Award Committee, Southern Political Science 
Association, 1978. 

Member, Program Committee (Urban Politics Section), 1976 Annual 
Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, 
Georgia. 

Member, Membership Committee, Southwestern Social Science 
Association, 1973-74. 

Presented papers at meetings of the American Political Science 
Association, International Political Science Association, Midwest 
Political Science Association, Southern Political Science 
Association, Louisiana Political Science Association, Citadel 
Symposium on Southern Politics, International Society of Political 
Psychology, and Harvard University Computer Graphics Week. 

Chaired panels at meetings of the Southern Political Science 
Association and American Political Science Association. 

Served as discussant for panels at meetings of Southwestern Social 
Science Association; Louisiana Political Science Association; 
Institute of American Culture, Academic Sinica (Taiwan). 



Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 
Page 3 

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES - cont'd 

Reviewed manuscripts for the American Political Science Review, 
American Journal of Political Science, Journal of POTTETEi, Western 
Political Quarterly, Polity, Social Science Quarterly, Legislative  
Studies Quarterly, American Politics Quarterly, Public  
Administration Quarterly, National Political Science Review, State 
and Local Government Review, and Howard University Press. 

Recipient of grant from Pacific Cultural Foundation, Taipei, Taiwan 
to support project entitled "The Legislative Yuan: A Study of 
Legislative Adaptation", (1982). 

Recipient of grant from private sources, New Orleans, to support a 
stUdy of mayoral tenure in large American cities (1983). 

Reviewed grant proposals for National Science Foundation programs in 
Political Science and Law and Social Sciences, and National Science 
Foundation graduate fellowship applications for the National 
Research Council. 

COMMUNITY AND UNIVERSITY SERVICE  

Chairperson, Taskforce on Civil Service, Mayor-Elect Ernest Morial's 
Transition Office (New Orleans), 1977-78. 

Chairperson, Search Committee for Vice Chancellor for Research and 
Graduate Studies and Dean of the Graduate School, 1987-88. 

Chairperson, Search Committee for Graduate Dean, UNO, 1978-79. 

Member, University Budget Committee, UNO, 1983-84. 

Member, Graduate Council, UNO, 1975-76. 

Member, Liberal Arts Advisory Committee, UNO, 1975-76, 1982-84. 

Member, Academic Planning Committee, UNO, 1982-1988. 

Member, Faculty Council Committee on Faculty Honors, UNO, 1985-1990. 

Member, Committee on Research, UNO Self-Study, 1972-73; 1982-83. 

Member, Dean's Advisory Committee on Academic Planning, College of 
Liberal Arts, UNO, 1983-84. 

Member, University Senate, UNO, 1975-77; 1980-81; 1983-85. 



Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 
Page 4 

UNIVERSITY AND UNIVERSITY SERVICE - cont'd 

Member, Steering Committee, Legal Division, New Orleans Chapter, 
American Foundation for Negro Affairs, 1977-79. 

Vice President, 1975-76, and Member of the Board, 1976-77 and 1977-
78, Diversity's Gallery: A Foundation for the Arts (New Orleans). 

Service as expert witness in numerous vote dilution cases in federal 
courts. Employed by the United States Department of Justice, 
Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, NAACP Legal Defense 
Fund, Center for Constitutional Rights, and other organizations and 
plaintiffs. 

Numerous presentations before groups such as the Louisiana Municipal 
Association; League of Women Voters; Public Policy Forums at 
Southern University in Baton Rouge; Louisiana Municipal Clerks 
Institute; (La.) Black Legislative Caucus Institute; Robert A. Taft 
Institute of Government Seminars, Southern University; Special 
Committee on Elective Law and Voter Participation, American Bar 
Association; Subcommittee on Civil and Constitutional Law, United 
States House of Representatives Committee on the Judiciary; 
Institute of American Culture, Academic Sinica (Taiwan); Foundation 
for Scholarly Exchange (Taiwan), University College Galway, 
University College Dublin, Queen's University of Belfast, 
University of Keele, APSA Summer Institute for Black Students, 
College of William and Mary, and Sangamon State University. 

REFERENCES 

Dr. Robert E. Darcy, Department of Political Science, Oklahoma State 
University, Stillwater, Oklahoma 74074 

Dr. Michael D. McDonald, Department of Political Science, State 
University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY 13901 

Dr. Robert B. Thigpen, Department of Political Science, University 
of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA 70148 

Dr. Jewel Prestage, Department of Political Science, Southern 
University, Baton Rouge, LA 70813 

Dr. David W. Neubauer, Department of Political Science, University 
of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA 70148 



Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 0 
Page 5 

CURRENT RESEARCH  

"Council Size and the Election of Blacks from Single-Member 
Districts: Clarifying an Apparent Inconsistency Between Theory and 
Data" (with Michael D. McDonald). Initial draft presented at the 

XIIIth World Congress of the International Political Science 
Association, Paris, France, 1985. 

"At-Large Plus: The Impact of Anti-Single Shot Voting Rules and 
Staggered Terms on Black Councilmanic Representation" (with Michael 
D. McDonald). 

"The Politics of PR: Electoral Manipulation and Reform in Ireland" 
(in progress). 

"Cumulative Voting as a Remedy for Minority Vote Dilution: The 
Case of Alamogardo, New Mexico." 

"Minority Representation and Councilmanic Election Systems:. A Black 
and Hispanic Comparison," for inclusion in volume edited by Anthony 
Messina, Laurie Rhodebeck, Frederick Wright, and Luis R. Fraga. 



Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 
Page 1 

PUBLICATIONS 

MONOGRAPHS 

Home Rule for Louisiana Parishes (Baton Rouge: Police Jury 
Association of Louisiana and Governmental Services Institute, 
Louisiana State University, 1974). 

Municipal Home Rule in Louisiana (Baton Rouge: Louisiana Municipal 
Association and Governmental Services Institute, Louisiana State 
University, 1974). 

Municipal Government Within the 1974 Louisiana Constitution: A 
Reference Guide for MUETETPir-05ffidials (Baton Rouge: Louisiana 
Municipal Association and Governmental Services Institute, Louisiana' 
State University, 1975). 

Louisiana Mayor's Handbook (Baton Rouge: Louisiana Municipal 
Association and Governmental Services Institute, Louisiana State 
University, 1977), (with Edward Clynch and Konrad Kressley). 

Mayoral Tenure in Large American Cities (New Orleans: School of 
Urban and Regional Studies, University of New Orleans, 1983). 

ARTICLES, RESEARCH NOTES, AND BOOK CHAPTERS  

"Statutory Restraints on Administrative Lobbying -- 'Legal 
Fiction'", Journal of Public Law, Vol. ,19, No. 1 (1970), 90-103 
(with Thomas G. Walker). Reprinted in' Dennis Ippolito and Thomas 
Walker (eds.), Reform and Responsiveness: Readings in American  
Politics (New York: St. Martin's Press, Inc., 1972), pp. 428-438. 

"Race and Compliance: Differential Political Socialization," Polity, 
3 (Fall 1970), 100-111. Reprinted in Charles S. Bullock, III, and 
Harrell Rogers, Jr. (eds.), Black Political Attitudes: Implications  
for Political Support (Chicago: Markham Publishing Co., 1972), pp. 
33-44. 

"Political Ambitions and the Prosecutorial Office," Journal of 
Politics, 33 (February 1971), 190-194. 

"Life-Style and Fringe Attitudes Toward the Political Integration of 
Urban Governments," Midwest Journal of Political Science 15 (August 
1971), 475-494 (with W.E. Lyons). 

"Expectations and Images: A Note on Diffuse Support for Legal 
Institutions," Law and Society Review, 6 (May 1972), 631-636 (with 
Michael W. Giles). 



Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 
Page 2 

ARTICLES, RESEARCH NOTES, AND BOOK CHAPTERS - cont'd 

"Black Control or Consolidation: •The Fringe Response," Social Science 
Quarterly, 53 (June 1972), 161-167 (with W.E. Lyons). 

"Life-Style and Fringe Attitudes Toward the Political Integration of 
Urban Governments: A Comparison of Survey Findings," American 
Journal of Political Science, 17 (February 1973), 182-188 (with W.E. 
Lyons). 

"Racial Gerrymandering and Southern State Legislative Redistricting: 
Attorney General Determinations Under the Voting Rights Act," 
Journal of Public Law, Vol. 22, No. 1 (1973), 37-66 (with Stanley A. 
Halpin, Jr.). 

"Socio-Political Cross Pressures and Attitudes Toward Political 
Integration of Urban Governments," Journal of Politics, 35 (August 
1973), 682-711 (with W.E. Lyons). 

"Candidate Attraction to the Politicized Councilmanic Office: A Note 
on New Orleans," Social Science Quarterly, 55 (March 1975), 975-982 
(with James N. Pezant). 

"Home Rule in Louisiana -- Could This Be The Promised Land?," 
Louisiana History, 17 (Fall 1976), 431-455. 

"Judicial Activism and the Problem of Gerrymandering," in Randall B. 
Ripley and Grace A. Franklin (eds.), National Government and Public  
Policy in the United States (Itasca, IL: Peacock Publishers, Inc., 
1977), pp. 239-244. 

"The Supreme Court and Equi-Populous Gerrymandering: A Remaining 
Obstacle in the Quest for Fair and Effective Representation," 
Arizona State Law Journal, Vol. 1976, No. 2 (1977), 277-319. Cited 
extensively in Karcher v. Daggett,   U.S.   (1983) 
(by J. Stevens, concurring, and J. White, dissenting). 

"State Centralization Versus Home Rule: A Note on Ambition Theory's 
Powers Proposition," Western Political Quarterly 30 (June 1977), 
288-294 (with Patrick F. O'Connor). 

"Pruning Thorns from the Thicket: An Empirical Test of the Existence 
of Racial Gerrymandering," Legislative Studies Quarterly, 2 
(November 1977) 465-479 (with John K. Wildgen). Cited extensively 
in Thornburg v. Gingles,   U.S.   (1986) (by J. 
Brennan). 

"Racial Vote Dilution: Supreme Court Interpretations of Section 5 of 
the Voting Rights Act," Southern University Law Review, 4 (Spring 
1978), 139-164. 



S. • 
Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 
Page 3 

ARTICLES, RESEARCH NOTES, AND BOOK CHAPTERS - cont'd 

"The Political Behavior of Lawyers in the Louisiana House of 
Representatives," Louisiana Law Review 39 (Fall 1978), 43-79 (with 
Patrick F. O'Connor, Justin J. Green, and Chong Lim Kim). 

"Restructuring the Regime: Support for Change Within the Louisiana 
Constitutional Convention," Polity 11 (Spring 1979), 440-451 with 
Patrick F. O'Connor). 

"The Hale Boggs Gerrymander: Congressional Redistricting, 1969," 
Louisiana History, 21 (Winter 1980), 59-66. 

"Lawyer-Legislators and Support for State Legislative Reform," 
Journal of Politics, 42 (February 1980), 267-276 (with Patrick F. 
O'Connor). 

"Racial Discrimination in the Electoral Process: The Voting Rights 
Act and the Vote Dilution Issue," in Robert P. Steed, Lawrence W. 
Moreland, and Tod A. Baker, (eds.), Party Politics in the South (New 
York: Praeger Publishing, 1980), pp. 197-213. 

"Spatial Distribution of 'Partisan Support and the Seats/Votes 
Relationship," Legislative Studies Quarterly, 5 (August 1980), 423-
435 (with John K. Wildgen). 

"Computer Graphics and Political Cartography: ASPEX of 
Gerrymandering," in Computer Mapping Applications in Urban,' State,  
and Federal Government, Plus Computer Graphics in Education, Vol. 
16, Harvard Library of Computer Graphics, 1981 Mapping Collection 
(Cambridge, Mass.: Laboratory for Computer Graphics and Spatial 
Analysis, Harvard University, 1981), pp. 51-57 (with John K. Wildgen). 

"The Election of Blacks to City Councils: Clarifying the Impact of 
Electoral Arrangements on the Seats/Population Relationship," 
American Political Science Review, 75 (June 1981), 344-354 (with 
Michael D. McDonald). 

"Post-Census Representational Districting: The Supreme Court, 'One 
Person, One Vote,' and the Gerrymandering Issue," Southern  
University Law Review, 7 (Spring 1981), 173-226. 

"Municipal Government," in James Bolner (ed.), Louisiana Politics: 
Festival in a Labyrinth (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University 
Press, 1982), pp. 181-219. 

"The 1980 Election and the Realignment Thesis: A Note of Caution," 
American Studies (Mei-kuo-Yen-chiu), 12 (June 1982), 107-132. 



Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 
Page 4 

ARTICLES, RESEARCH NOTES, AND BOOK CHAPTERS - cont'd 

"Racial Vote Dilution and the 'New' Equal Protection Clause: City of 
Mobile v. Bolden," American Studies (Mei-kuo-Yen-chiu) 12 
September 1982), 25-72. 

"The Underrepresentation of Blacks on City Councils: Comparing the 
Structural and Socioeconomic Explanations for South/Non-South 
Differences," Journal of Politics, 44 (November 1982), 1088-1099 
(with Michael D. McDonald). 

"The Impact of the 1980 Supplementary Election on Nationalist 
China's Legislative Yuan," Asian Survey, 24 (April 1984), 447-458 
(with Chu Chi-hung). 

"The Marginality Hypothesis and the State Legislative Salary Issue," 
Southeastern Political Review, 13 (Spring 1985), 169-182 (with 
Patrick F. O'Connor). 

"Racial Vote Dilution: The Concept and the Court," in Lorn Foster 
(ed.), The Voting Rights Act: Consequences and Implications (New 
York: Praeger Publishers, 1985), pp. 13-43. 

"Quantitative Evidence in Vote Dilution Litigation: Political 
Participation and Polarized Voting," Urban Lawyer, 17 (Summer 
1985), 369-377 (with Michael D. McDonald). Cited in Thornburg v. 
Gingles,   U.S.   (1986) (by J. Brennan). 

"The Reincarnation of the Intent Standard: Federal Judges and At-
Large Election Cases," Howard Law Journal 28 (No 2, 1985), 495-513. 
Cited in Thornburg v. Gingles,   U.S.   (1986) (by 
J. Brennan). Abbreviated version appeared in Focus (June, 1985). 
(Focus is a monthly publication of the Joint Center for Political 
Studies in Washington, D.C.). 

"The Effect of At-Large Versus District Elections on Racial 
Representation in U.S. Municipalities," in Bernard Grofman and Arend 
Lijphart (eds.), Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences 
(New York: Agathon Press, Inc., 1986), pp. 203-225 (with Michael D. 
McDonald). 

"Repairing the Crack in iiew Orleans' Black Vote: VRA's Results Test 
Nullifies 'Gerryduck'," Publius 16(Fall 1986), 109-121. 

"Quantitative Evidence in Vote Dilution Litigation, Part II: 
Minority Coalitions and Multivariate Analysis," Urban Lawyer  
19(Winter 1987), 65-75 (with Michael D. McDonald). 

"District Magnitudes and the Election of Women to the Irish Dail," 
Electoral Studies, 6 (August 1987), 123-132. 



Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 
Page 5 

ARTICLESJ RESEARCH NOTES AND BOOK CHAPTERS - cont'd 

"The Election of Blacks to Southern City Councils: The Dominant 
Impact of Electoral Arrangements," in Laurence W. Moreland, Robert 
P. Steed, and Tod A. Baker (eds.) Black Politics in the South (New 
York: Praeger Publishers, 1987), pp. 245-258 (with Michael D. 
McDonald). 

"Race, Referendums, and Rolloff" Journal of Politics 49 (November 
1987), 1081-1092 (with Jim M. Vanderleeuw). 

"Definitions, Measurements, and Statistics: Weeding Wildgen's 
Thicket," Urban Lawyer 20(Winter 1988), 175-191 (with Michael D. 
McDonald). 

"The Desirability Hypothesis and the Election of Women to City 
Councils," State and Local Government Review 20 (Winter 1988), 38-40 
(with Michael D. McDonald and Bih-Er Chou). 

"Black Politics and the Voting Rights Act(s): 1965-1982," in James 
Lea (ed.), Contemporary Southern Politics: Continuity and Change  
(Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, (forthcoming). 

"Detecting Gerrymandering," in Bernard Grofman (ed.), Toward Fair 
and Effective Representation: Political Gerrymandering and the 
Courts (forthcoming) (with Michael D. McDonald). 

"Race and Representational Districting: Protections Against 
Delineational and Institutional Gerrymandering" Comparative State  
Politics Newsletter (forthcoming, special issue). 

BOOK REVIEWS 

Review of John Wilson Lewis (ed.), THE CITY IN COMMUNIST CHINA, in 
Journal of Politics, 34 (February 1972), 310-311. 

Review of Arthur I. Blaustein and Geoffrey Faux, THE STAR-SPANGLED 
HUSTLE: WHITE POWER AND BLACK CAPITALISM in Wall Street Review of 
Books, 1 (June 1973), 215-229. 

Review of Carroll Smith Rosenberg, RELIGION AND THE RISE OF THE 
AMERICAN CITY: THE NEW YORK CITY MISSION MOVEMENT, 1812-1870, in 
Christian Scholar's Review, Vol. 4, No. 1 (1974), 73-75. 

Review of Charlie Brower, ME, AND OTHER ADVERTISING GENIUSES, in 
Wall Street Review of Books, 2 (September 1974), 226-227. 



Dr. Richard L. Engstrom 
Page 6 

BOOK REVIEWS - cont'd 

Review of Robert Higgs, COMPETITION AND COERCION, BLACKS IN THE 
AMERICAN ECONOMY, 1865-1914, in Wall Street Review of Books, 6 
(Spring 1978), 117-119. 

Review of Herbert E. Alexander, 
Alexander, FINANCING POLITICS: 
REFORM, in Wall Street Review of 

Review of James M. Buchanan and 
DEFICIT: THE POLITICAL LEGACY OF 
of Books, 6 (Fall 1978), 319-320. 

MONEY IN POLITICS, and Herbert E. 
MONEY, ELECTIONS, AND POLITICAL 
Books, 6 (Summer 1978), 209-211. 

Richard E. Wagner, DEMOCRACY IN 
LORD KEYNES, in Wall Street Review 

Review of American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 
ZERO-BASE BUDGETING AND SUNSET LEGISLATION, in Wall Street Review of 
Books, 7 (Winter 1979), 53-55. 

Review of David Rogers, CAN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT SAVE THE CITIES? THE 
CASE OF NEW YORK, in Wall Street Review of Books, 7 (Spring 1979), 

75-77. 

Review of Kevin R. Cox and R. J. Johnston (eds.), CONFLICT, POLITICS 
AND THE URBAN SCENE, in American Political Science Review, 78 (June 
1984), 531-532. 

Review of Manuel Carballo and Mary Jo Bane (eds.), 
POOR IN THE 1980s, in American Political Science  
1985), 523-524. 

THE STATE AND THE 
Review, 79 (June 

Review of Terry Sanford, A DANGER TO DEMOCRACY: THE PRESIDENTIAL 
NOMINATING PROCESS, in Presidential Studies Quarterly, 16 (Winter 

1986), 153-155. 

Review of Charles W. Whalen, Jr., THE HOUSE AND FOREIGN POLICY: THE 
IRONY OF CONGRESSIONAL REFORM, in Presidential Studies Quarterly, 16 
(Spring 1986), 369-371. 

Review of Arend Lijphart and Bernard Grofman 
ELECTORAL SYSTEM: ISSUES AND ALTERNATIVES, in 
(1986), 125-127. 

(eds.), CHOOSING AN 
Irish Political Studies, 1 

Review of David McKay, AMERICAN POLITICS AND SOCIETY, 
Studies Quarterly 17(Fall 1987), 784-785. 

Review of Sheila D. Collins, THE RAINBOW CHALLENGE: 
CAMPAIGN AND THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN POLITICS, in 
Studies Quarterly (forthcoming). 

in Presidential 

THE JACKSON 
Presidential  



APPENDIX B 



METHODOLOGY 

Extreme Case Analysis  

Extreme case analysis is based on racially "homogeneous" 

precincts (in this analysis, precincts in which at least 90% of 

the registered voters are of one racial group or the other). 

Reported in the tables are simply the percentage of the votes 

cast within each group of homogeneous precincts (black or white) 

that were cast in support of the black candidate. 

Bivariate Ecological Regression  

Bivariate ecological regression provides estimates of the 

same behavior, but employs data for all precincts, not just those 

that are racially homogeneous. The figures reported in the 

tables are based on the empirical relationship between the 

percentage of registered voters in every precinct and (1) the 

percentage of registered voters in every precinct voting for the 

black candidate(s) and (2) the percentage voting for white 

candidate(s). By examining two summary statistics through which 

these empirical relationships are expressed -- the intercept and 

the regression coefficient -- it is possible to estimate the 

percentage of both white and black registered voters who voted in 

a particular election, and also the percentage of the votes cast 

by each racial group that were cast in favor of a particular 

candidate. Each analysis has been weighted to reflect the 

different number of registered voters within each precinct. For 

a more detailed explanation of this estimation procedure (which 



was employed by the plaintiffs' expert witness in the Gingles  

case), see Grofman, Migalski, and Noviello, "The Totality of 

Circumstances Test" in Section 2 of the 1982 Extension of the 

Voting Rights Act: A Social Science Perspective, 7 Law and Policy 

119, 202-205 (1985) (cited in Thornburg V. Gingles, 106 S.Ct. 

2752, 2768 (1986)), or Grofman, An Outline for Racial Bloc Voting 

Analysis, Plaintiffs' Exhibit 12, at 1-5, Gingles V. Edmisten, 

590 F. Supp. 345 (E.D.N.C. 1984) (three-judge court). 



S 

APPENDIX C 



TABLE A 

Correlation Coefficients and Regression Estimates 
of Racial Divisions in the Votes for Black Candidates 

Date of 
Election 

9/16/78 

3/3/79 

4/7/79 
(runoff) 

2/6/82 

3/20/82 
(runoff) 

6/18/83 

9/29/84 

11/6/84 
(runoff) 

2/1/86 

3/1/86 

10/24/87 

District 
(Parishes)  

Orleans 
Crim. Magistr. 

Orleans 
Civil H 

Orleans 
Civil H 

Black 
Cand.  

Wilson 

Ortique 

Ortique* 

Orleans Julien 
Criminal I Wilson 

Orleans 
Criminal I 

Orleans 
Civil D 

Orleans 
Civil F 

Orleans 
Civil I 

Orleans 
Criminal B 

Orleans 
Criminal B 

Orleans 
Civil F 

Orleans 
Criminal J 

Orleans 
Civil F 

4th Cir. Ct. 
App., Orleans 

Julien 

Davis 

Dorsey 

Johnson* 

Douglas 

Douglas 

Magee 
Wilkerson 

Blanchard 

Magee* 

Douglas 

Correlation % of Blacks' % of Whites' 
Coefficientl Votes Votes  

.883 32.0 

.829 96.7 

.871 98.8 

.834 

.866 

.962 88.1 

.865 97.0 

.686 51.6 

.858 85.2 

.887 74.2 

.959 88.3 

.930 75.3 
-.534 21.8 

.855 74.7 

.953 92.3 

41.02 
31.3 

.672 54.0 

Indicates candidates who were elected. 

2.0 

13.8 

13.0 

5.0 
3.2 

16.3 

6.6 

23.2 

30.1 

7.2 

10.9 

9.3 
34.6 

15.0 

12.8 

22.2 

1 All correlation coefficients reflect a statistically significant 
relationship between the racial composition of precincts and the vote for 
the black candidate. 

2 The black candidate received a plurality of the votes cast by 
black voters. 



TABLE i 

Date of 
Election 

9/16/78 

3/3/79 

4/7/79 
(runoff) 

2/6/82 

3/20/82 
(runoff) 

6/18/83 

9/29/84 

11/6/84 
(runoff) 

2/1/86 

3/1/86 

10/24/87 

Extreme 
in 

District 
(Parishes)  

Case Estimates of Racial Divisions 
the Vote for Black Candidates 

Orleans 
Crim. Magistr. 

Orleans 
Civil H 

Orleans 
Civil H 

Orleans 
Criminal 

Orleans 
Criminal I 

Orleans 
Civil D 

Orleans 
Civil F 

Orleans 
Civil I 

Orleans 
Criminal B 

Orleans 
Criminal B 

Orleans 
Civil F 

Orleans 
Criminal J 

Orleans 
Civil F 

4th Cir. Ct. 
App., Orleans 

Black 
Cand.  

Wilson 

Ortique 

Ortique* 

Julien 
Wilson 

Julien 

Davis 

Dorsey 

Johnson* 

Douglas 

Douglas 

Magee 
Wilkerson 

Blanchard 

Magee* 

Douglas 

% of Blacks' % of Whites' 
Votes  

30.1 

89.2 

95.5 

39.7 
29.5 

86.2 

93.0 

51.4 

84.6 

71.9 

85.7 

72.8 
21.3 

73.5 

88.8 

50.9 

Indicates candidates who were elected. 

Votes 

2.4 

15.2 

15.9 

5.9 
3.6 

18.2 

9.1 

23.3 

31.8 

7.4 

11.5 

9.8 
32.7 

16.1 

12.6 

20.8 



Table 3 

Correlation Coefficients and Regression Estimates 
of Racial Divisions in the Vote for Black Candidatesl 

Parish and Municipal-Level Courts 

Date of 
Election Court 

Black Correlation % of Blacks' % of Whites' 
Candidate Coefficient Votes Votes  

9/16/78 Juvenile Court B, 
Orleans Parish Douglas .911 57.1 3.0 

Young .799 23.8 1.7 

10/27/79 Juvenile Court E, 
Orleans Parish Young .933 64.7 4.5 

-First City Court C, 
New Orleans Pharr .525 6.1 1.6 

12/8/79 
(Runoff) Juvenile Court E, 

Orleans Parish Young .863 79.5 25.3 

9/13/80 First City Court A, 
New Orleans Young .894 72.2 3.9 

11/4/80 
• (Runoff) First City Court A, 

New Orleans Young .974 91.7 15.1 

10/17/81 First City Court. C, 
New Orleans Thomas .823 93.5. 16.8 

9/29/84 Juvenile Court A, 
Orleans Parish -Gray .916 68.9 9.8 

Dannel .052 19.7 18.7 

Juvenile Court C, 
Orleans Parish Young .884 46.2 2 4.7 

11/6/84 
(Runoff) Juvenile Court A, 

Orleans Parish Gray* .961 95.7 16.2 

9/27/86 Juvenile Court D, 
Orleans Parish Dannel .831 84.1 21.0 

Municipal Court, 
New Orleans McConduit .859 71.2 11.9 

11/4/86 Municipal Court, 
New Orleans McConduit* .898 84.4 26.5 

*Indicates candidates who were elected. 

1. All correlation coefficients reflect a St atistically significant relationship between the 
racial composition of precincts and the vote for the black candidate except that for Dannel in 
the 1984 Juvenile Court, Division A election in Orleans Parish. 

2. The black candidates received a plurality of the votes cast by black" voters. 



Table 4 

Extreme Case Estimates of 
Racial Divisions in the Vote for Black Candidates 

Parish and Municipal-Level Courts 

Date of 
Election Court 

9/16/78 Juvenile Court B, 
Orleans Parish Douglas 53.8 

Young 21.8 

10/27/79 Juvenile Court E, 
Orleans Parish Young 61.8 

First City Court C, 
New Orleans Pharr 5.6 

12/8/79 
(Runoff) Juvenile Court E, 

Orleans Parish Young 77.5 

9/13/80 First City Court A, 
New Orleans Young 67.6 

11/4/80 
(Runoff) First City Court A, 

New Orleans Young 89.0 

10/17/81 First City Court C, 
New Orleans Thomas 86.6 

9/29/84 Juvenile Court A, 
Orleans Parish Gray 67.3 

Dannel 19.8 

4 Young 4.81 

Gray* 92.9 

9/27/86 Juvenile Court D, 
Orleans Parish Dannel 80.5 

McConduit 67.2 
11/4/86 - 
(Runoff) Municipal Court, 

New Orleans McConduit* 81.7 

Black % of Blacks' % of Whites' 
Candidate Votes Votes 

11/6/84 
(Runoff) 

Juvenile Court C, 
Orleans Parish 

Juvenile Court A, 
Orleans Parish 

Municipal Court, 
New Orleans 

3.8 
2.0 

5.3 

1.6 

26.4 

5.1 

17.2 

17.9 

10.6 
19.1 

4.6 

17.7 

20.0 

11.2 

27.5 

*Indicates candidates who were elected. 

1. The black candidates received a plurality of the votes cast by black voters.