Doc. 7404D Basic Run I - General Election

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From Bernard Grofman, UC Irvine Political Science professor. Date is approximate.

LDF Attorneys
Cooperating Attorney
- Leslie J. Winner
Organization
- LDF
Matter
- Gingles
Case
- Thornburg v. Gingles
U.S. state
- North Carolina
Collection
- Case Files
Taxonomy
Identifier
- bb6a3dd5-dd92-ee11-be37-6045bdeb8873

Cite this item

Case Files, Thornburg v. Gingles Working Files - Guinier. Doc. 7404D Basic Run I - General Election, 1984. bb6a3dd5-dd92-ee11-be37-6045bdeb8873. LDF Archives, Thurgood Marshall Institute. https://ldfrecollection.org/archives/archives-search/archives-item/865c3faf-9d3a-4eed-ad58-6b77af82f43c/doc-7404d-basic-run-i-general-election. Accessed October 10, 2025.

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    BASIC RUN I - GENERAL ELECTION

County

 

Date of E1ection
Name, Party and Candidate # of each

Candidate

Type of Eiection

 

# of Black Candidates

Biack

 

# of Winning Candidates

1. run: CVPi (Ci) by X

G fiii in: fiii in:
(Rice Index) (P )
BC
.i
slope intercept
1 m b

caicuiate: fiii in:
(P)
NC
i
correi.

m+b .£

fiii in:

statistical

-significance

 

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

and?"

\\/

Doc.

74040 - GROFMAN/Chery1/He1en

circ1e # of biack candidate(s) above

xerox scattergram(s) of black candidate(s) in the CVSi (Ci)

by X run

circie winners above

circie: Biack candidate #C won_;__
#C won___
Run CVPIi by x

fi11 in: fi11 in: ca1cu1ate:

(P ) (P )

BNC NNC
i 1
l m; L m'+b'

 

(/1;
I; 3', ’ ,
k 7/
1"
1ost
iost
f111 in: fi11 in:
statistica]
.E

 

G

Circie # of biack candidates above

significance

e Calcuiate (from two tab1es above)

estimated proportion of white voters who vote for

m+b

candidate i = P' = 3:
we m+b+m'+b'
1

estimated proportion of Biack voters who vote for
b

candidate i = P' = "
BC b+b'

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Doc. 7404D - GROFMAN/Cheryl/Helen xﬁ’%;»é9

--6. Ron CVPi(Ci) by PRI
a fill in: fill in: calculate: fill in: fill in:
(P ) (P )
DC -RIC
i i statistical
1 E. §_ 5211 .3 significance

 

etc.

7. Run CVPI by PRI

Q fill in: fill in: calculate: fill in: fill in:
(P ) (P )
DNC RINC
i i statistical
i m' b' m'+b' 3 w

 

 

 

Chm-F

 

@ﬂ

9 Circle # of Democrat candidates above

9 Calculate (from two tables above)

estimated proportion of Republican and Independent voters who

vote for

m+b a.
candidate i = P' = "‘
RIC m+b+m'+b'
i

estimated proportion of Democrat voters who vote for

 

candidate i = P' - <-

P' P'
DC RIC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

{KKLQQ m 4:- 0.) N __._..

 

 

J
9 specify: two highest positive correlations and two highest ‘é’<7/

~, ta. run: Pearson's r for cvpi by cvp. for all i,j pairs <;;Z/

negative correlations in correlation matrix

(e.g. r1, 6 = .8854, etc.)

a circle black candidate(s) in list of correlations above

Doc. 74040 - GROFMAN/Cheryl/Helen arr‘ 7 :Ei:¢\

R. t2. Run regression Pw with x1, PD
9 fill in
P(ND)W = B(CONSTANT) t B(PD)
Note to Coder: B(Z) = the value in the Zth row of the column headed

B.

e fill in

multiple r(PD) =

_l3. Run regreSSion PB with x1, PD

9 fill in
P(WD)$= B(CONSTANT) + B(PD)
P(wRI)B = B(CONSTANT) =

e fill in

multiple r(PD) =

K lﬂ. Run regression PM with x, PD

9 fill in
Pm)w = B(CONSTANT) + B(PD)
Pm“)w = B(CONSTANT) = _

G fi11 in

multiple r(PD) =

Cf t5. Run regression PB with x, PD

9 fill in
P(BD)B = B(CONSTANT) + B(PD)
P(BRI)B = B(CONSTANT)

G fill in
multiple r =

9 Calculate from data ﬁnnediately above

P
(wo)w
P' = =
(WDW P +P
(w0)w (ND)B
P' = l - P' =
(ND)B ' (HD)N
P
(BD)N
P' = =
(BD)w P +P
(BD)N (BD)B
P' =1 - P'
(BD)B (BD)w
P
. (WRI)H' .
P' = =
(NRI)W P +p
(NRI)N (NRI)B
P' A = l - P' .
(WRI)B (WRI)W
1?
(BRI)N
P' = =
(BRI)w P +P
(BRI)w (BR1)B
P' = 1 - P' =

(BRl)B (BRI)W

0%

[1
,-.

{”41.

’2.

run: Pw by X

fill in: slope m1

intercept b1

1‘“)

stat. significance ‘

run: PB by X

fill in: slope m2,

intercept b2

stat. significance

calculate
estimated mean proportion of votes cast by
average white registered voters

for white candidate(s) wa = m1+b1 =

estimated mean proportion of votes cast by
average black registered voters
for white-candidate(s) PBw = b1 =
estimated mean proportion of votes cast by
white registered voters for

black candidate(s) P = m +b =

NB 2 2
estimated mean proportion of votes cast by
black registered voters for

black candidate(s) PBB = b2 =

 

6

calculate:
estimated share of votes cast by
white voters which goes to white

candidate(s)

estimated share of votes cast by
wk,tn~
white voters which goes to

w)» x (2' -
black-candidate(s)

estimated share of votes cast by
wln \ 1C.

biack voters which goes to

white candidate(s)
(A '

'va‘v

estimated share of votes cast by
black voters which goes to

black candidate(s)

Pl
WW

P l

BN'

P I
NB

P l

BB

 

P +P m +b +m +b
NW NB ,1 l 2 2

 

3w l _
P +P b+b
an 88 l 2
.l-P‘ =

w
l-P' =

BW

Doc.

74040 - GROFMAN/Cheryl/Helen ,5/ 7’?
/ a},

v

run: T by x

fill in: slope m3

intercept b3
r:

stat. significance =

calculate:

'estimated proportion of turnout of black voters) TB = b3 =

estimate porportion of turnout of white voters Tw = m3+b3 =

run: NBAR by x

fill in: slope m4 =

intercept b4
r:

stat. significance =

calculate:
estimated mean number of ballots cast by

black registered voters = nB = b4 =

estimated mean number of ballots cast by

white registered voters = nN = m4+b4 =

Doc. 7404B - GROFMAN/Cheryl/Helen

e calculate:

Yule's Index of Racial Polarization

Rice's Index of Racial Polarization

.4 10. run: PD by x

Q fill in: slbpe m5

intercept b5

r:

stat. significance

9 Calculate:
estimated proportion of whites who

are Democrats = PWD = m5+b5

estimated proportion of blacks who

are Democrats = PBD = b5

iﬁ’daﬂ run: P by X

RI
9 fill in: slope m6 =

intercept b6

r:

stat. significance

P P -P P

NW BB WB BN

P P +P P
NW BB NB BW

PI _PI =
BB NB

‘7 “w

calculate:

estimated proportion of whites who

are Republicans or Independents = PWRI = m6+b6':
estimated proportion of blacks who
are Republicans or Independents = PBRI = bst: ~

verify:

l
_.a

= Fun + PwRI "

P30 + PBRI

R
——l

run: condescriptives 1/ IT,W
calculate from condescriptive statistics summary sums, values for: -$ /

NRT
proportion of white registration =
_ RT
B_R1
proportion of black/other registration l-x = xl = =
RT

proportion of vote received by white candidate(s)

NVT

as proportion of registered voters P - -
N RT

proportion of vote received by black candidate(s)

BVT
as proportion of registered voters P = ——_'=
8 RT
m1
Turnout proportion T = =
RT
DEM
Proportion of registered voters who are Democrats = P = =
D RT

Proportion of registered voters who are Republican or

Independents = P = l - P
RI 0.

- M

'# ballots cast per registered voter n = NBAR =
‘ ' RT

= PH 2 x wa + (l-x) PBw

ll
'0
R

B X PWB + (l'x) PBB

= n = NBAR = n x + n (l-x) =

II
H
ll
.4

X
+
.—'
:3
>1
ll

calculate:

estimated average # ballots cast by white voters

estimated average # ballots cast by black voters

estimatexaverage # ballots cast by

the voters - - -

vote for C as a proportion of
1 .

CA
_1
total # of voters CVS = =
l TNV
CA
' __2.
CVS = =
2 TNV
CA
__3
CVS = =
3 TNV
CA
_‘i
CVS = =
4 TNV
CA
_2
CVS = =
5 TNV
CA
__‘i
CVS = =
6 TNV
etc.

Vote for C as a proportion of total registered voters
l

CA

1
cvp =—=
1 RT
CA

__2
CVP = =

Doc. 74040 - GROFMAN/Cheryl/Helen 3’”?

CA
_3
CVP = =
3 RT
CA'
_4
CVP = =
4 RT
CA
_5
CVP = =
5 RT
CA
_6
CVP = =
6 RT
etc.

Proportion of total ballots cast which go to Black candidate(s)

BVT
PBPRIM = _— =
wVT + BVT

Proportion of total ballots cast which go to White candidate(s)

NVT
PWPRIM = ' =
WVT + BVT

number of votes received by candidate

CA1 = (“"4 on: (,—
L/i ,_ K'H LIP-
> L? '-
CA =
C.H
Q HQ (1/31“; [(1
C: CA CH.

,1

kl:
1/

(1
\-l..

9 Compute x:.95
m
T=Tw: =
- RT
WRT
X=—=
RT
B_R_T.
l-X= =
RT
WVT
P =P =——=
N NW RT
M
P =P = =-
B WB__RT
El
NBAR = n = =
N RT
DEM
P =P = =
D ND RT
P =.P =l-P
RI NRI
P
P' =P' =
N WW P +P
W
p
Pt 3P. -

 

 

 

run condescriptives for X 3 .95 (X GE .95)

. -run condescriptive for X 1.05 (X LE .05)

m
RT
B_VT_

.RT.

DEM

BN

=P'

"’06 BB

are

RT

' BM

.33..

TO_T
RT

W

X §_.05
m
=T=
B RT
E81
:X':
RT
= l-X
= P
H
=P
B
= n = NBAR
B
= P
D
= P
HRI RI
"/

PI
NB

Pl
BB

1-P'
BN

)1

CV51 = CV51
N
' CV52 = CV52
’ N
CV53 = CV53
N
CV54 = CV54
N
CV55 = CV55
N
CV56 = CV56
N
CV57 = CV57
N
CV58 = CV58
N
CV59 = CV59
N
CV510 = CV510
CVSll = CVSll

II

241

TNV
95g
TNV
535;
TNV
gay:
TNV
£5;

TNV

CAl

TNV
2a

TNV
CA3

TNV

CA4

TNV

2L5

TNV

9p

TNV

ﬂZ

TNV
m_8

TNV

32

TNV

_ = cvsmB

CATO
TNV
CAll

= cvs1 = cv51
e
= cvszB = cvsz
= cvs33 = cvs3
= cvs4B = cvs4
= cvssB = cvss
= cvssB = cvss
= cvs7 = cvs7
B
'= cvssB = cvss
= CVSQB = cvsg
= cv510

—= CVSllB = CV511

TNV

Doc. 7404D - GROFMAN/Cheryl/Helen

CV512

CV513

CV514

CV515

CV516

CV517

CV518

CVPl

CVPZ

CVP3

CVP4

CV512

CV513

CV514

CV515

CV516

CV517

CV518

CVPl

CVPZ

CVP3

CVP4

CAlZ

TNV
CA13

TNV
CA14

TNV
CA15

.TNV
CA16

TNV
CA17

TNV
CA18

TNV
w
RT

C12.—
RT

93..
RT

w-
RT

CAlZ
= = CVSlZB = cv512
TNV
CAl3
= — = cvs133 = CVSl3
TNV
CA14
= ""'= cvs14B = CVSl4
TNV '
CAlS
= = cvs153 = cvs15
TNV
CA16
= “"‘= cv3163 = cvs16
TNV
CAl7
= ‘ = cvs17B = cv517
TNV
CAl8
= "“ = CVSlSB = CVSl8
TNV
2A1
= CVPl = CVPl
RT B
9A2
= cvpz = CVP2
RT B
525%
= CVP3 = CVP3
RT B
955
= CVP4 = CVP4
RT B

//,

ii

CVP5

CVP6

CVP7

CVP8

CVP9

CVPTO

CVP11

CVP12

CVP13

CVPT4

ll

CVP5

CVP6’

CVP7

CVP8

CVP9

CVP10

CVP11

CVP12

CVP13

CVP14

.945.—

RT

CA_6_

RT

SE-

948.

RT

_.

RT

2&4

RT

CATO
RT

CATT
RT

CATZ
RT

CA13
RT

CA14
RT

1 1

|l

CVP10

CVP11

CVP12

CVP13

CVPT4

9.5.
= CVP5 = CVP5
RT B
w
= CVP6 = CVP6
RT B
m .
= CVP7 = CVP7
RT B .
w
= CVP8 = CVP8
RT B
_c_A_9
= CVP9 = CVP9
RT B
CATO
= = CVP10 =
RT B
CATT
= = CVP11 =
RT B
me
= = CVP12 =
RT B
CA13
= =.CVPT3 =
RT B
CA14
= = CVPT4 =
RT' B

Doc. 7404D - GROFMAN/Cheryl/Helen

G

CA15

Ul

CVPTS

CVPTS

CARS~

CVP16 CVP16

CA17

CVPT7 CVP17

N RT

CAl8‘

CVPT8 CVPT8

circle black candidates above (on both

side)

CA15 -
= = CVPTS = CVPTS
RT 8
CA16
= = CVP16 = CVP16
RT B
m
= = CVPT7 = CVPT7
RT B
CAT8
= = CVPT8 = CVPT8
RT 8

right hand and left hand

42.427

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Doc. 7404D Basic Run I - General Election

LDF Attorneys

Cooperating Attorney

Organization

Matter

Case

U.S. state

Collection

Taxonomy

Identifier

Cite this item

Copyright notice

Additional info

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